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After being slightly below average in his first month in the Majors, Edouard Julien posted an above-average offense in May, June, and July. In August, Julien has lost a lot of power and has seen the strikeouts tick back up above 30% despite often occupying the leadoff spot. Is there any reason to be concerned, short or long-term?
Edouard Julien was a superstar in July. Slashing .369/.461/.732, he performed 122% better than the league average hitter by wRC+. Everyone hoped the Twins had a superstar hitter on their hands, but even if that was the case, that production level is impossible to maintain.
In August, Julien has dropped down to a .250/.360/.319 line. His peak of a 25% strikeout rate in July is back up around 30. It’s undoubtedly a down month, but there are still good signs.
As much as the power has disappeared in August, pitchers haven’t precisely found Julien’s weakness. August is his best month regarding walk rate, posting a 15.1% mark. Perhaps after the damage he did in July, pitchers are being much more careful when he’s at the plate, even though he’s often leading off.
Regarding the types of pitches Julien sees, opposing pitchers essentially use the same mix, with nearly 60% fastballs followed by about 30% breaking balls and 10% offspeed. They may be pitching around him more, but it’s not like they’ve found a type of pitch to throw him that keeps him from doing damage. Still, his output when making contact hasn’t been the same.
August is Julien’s lowest month by flyball percentage, with a 12.5% mark. He’s hitting line drives at career-high levels, but the lack of balls in the air is likely why he’s only hit one homer so far. His batting average being a bit down could be bad luck, but the power likely has more to do with the lack of fly balls.
Could an injury be hampering Julien’s swing ever so slightly? He was held out briefly earlier this month with a tight hamstring, and he’s had occasions where he’s hit a ball in the infield and jogged to first. It’s fair to wonder whether something is bothering him just enough to affect his power stroke.
At any rate, Julien isn’t being attacked any differently by opposing pitchers, and he hasn’t shown any significant red flags that would indicate that some glaring weakness has been found. Perhaps he’s dealing with a nagging injury, but he’s still walking at incredible rates and spraying line drives all over the park. In what is considered a “down” month for Julien, he’s been slightly below average offensively and still gets on base at an elite rate out of the leadoff spot. If this is Edouard Julien slumping, the Twins have themselves an incredible hitter.
There should be little reason to worry about the Twins emerging leadoff hitter moving forward. He’ll likely continue to be a key cog at the top of the lineup down the stretch, and he’s already shown that he can carry an offense when things are going well. If Edouard Julien has a debilitating weakness at the plate, it doesn’t appear anyone has found it yet.
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