Week in Review: Rallies and Relief Woes

[Nick Nelson]

The Twins faced a big challenge last week, facing off against first-place teams for six straight days as their overworked bullpen continues to falter. They rebounded from a tough series in Milwaukee to take three of four from a potential future playoff foe, the Texas Rangers. 

In holding their own against tough competition, the Twins held their ground in the AL Central as the clock ticks down on the regular season.

Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 8/21 through Sun, 8/27
***
Record Last Week: 3-3 (Overall: 68-63)
Run Differential Last Week: +4 (Overall: +47)
Standing: 1st Place in AL Central (6.0 GA)

Last Week's Game Results:

Game 126 | MIL 7, MIN 3: Floro Fumbles in Middle Innings
Game 127 | MIL 8, MIN 7: Bullpen Blows Lead, Bats Can't Keep Pace
Game 128 | MIN 7, TEX 5: Jeffers Delivers Go-Ahead PH Homer
Game 129 | MIN 12, TEX 2: Twins Rock Rangers in Dominant, Spicy Win
Game 130 | TEX 6, MIN 2: Ryan Solid in Return But Pen Implodes
Game 131 | MIN 7, TEX 6: Twins Erase Deficit, Win with Walk-Off BB

NEWS & NOTES

Last year around this time, the Twins were being constantly bombarded by crushing injury news, setting up a disastrous September that would ultimately remove them from playoff contention. 

This year, things are trending in a much more favorable direction. Instead of receiving update after update filled with setbacks and sad-trombones, much of the information shared out from the team lately points toward positive progress and momentum. Lately we've learned that: 

• Byron Buxton is tentatively working toward a September return to center field (part-time, at least).
• Brock Stewart is ramping up again and reporting no pain after a couple of recent bullpen sessions, with the possibility of a rehab stint on the horizon.
• Chris Paddack, now 15 months removed from his second Tommy John surgery, is throwing in the mid-90s down in Florida and being eyed for a possible bullpen role in October.
• Alex Kirilloff has been taking swings and building up after giving his shoulder some time to rest. He'll take part in live batting practice on Tuesday and if that goes well, a rehab assignment could follow later in the week.
• Jorge Alcala (remember him?) is feeling good and will throw live BP against Buxton and Kirilloff. Alcala himself could be in line for a rehab assignment in the near future if things go smoothly.

 

It's probably not reasonable to expect all of these guys to return and make a big impact before year's end, maybe not even most of them. But even just getting back a couple of them at semi-full capacity could make a big difference, given this first place team's makeup and needs heading into September. We're talking about some major proven talents in that mix.

Already the Twins have activated Joe Ryan, who tossed five innings of one-run ball in his return against the Rangers on Saturday. Their rotation is essentially at full strength heading into the end of August, albeit with Bailey Ober starting to wobble under his workload a bit and Dallas Keuchel adding an interesting element.

With 31 games left on the schedule, Minnesota holds a six-game lead over the Guardians in the Central, as they prepare to host Cleveland at Target Field with their top three starters on the mound. It's getting late early for the Guardians, who will be matching up their .450 road winning percentage against Minnesota's .590 clip at home.

HIGHLIGHTS

The Twins offense shows no real signs of slowing down. They gave it their all last week, pushing across 36 runs on 53 hits in six games, launching 14 home runs, as they tried to keep pace with a leaky bullpen. 

Royce Lewis once again took center stage in his second week back. He homered in Wednesday's game against Milwaukee, then homered again as part of a 3-for-3 Thursday night against Texas, and added a game-salvaging grand slam on Sunday. Perhaps most encouraging out of all that: Lewis showed some discipline, drawing three walks against four strikeouts.

 

Monumental as it was, Lewis' slam against the Rangers ranked merely as the second-most exciting home run of the week for Minnesota. It's tough to compete with a pinch-hit, go-ahead, two-run blast in the eighth inning. 

Yeah, Ryan Jeffers did that.

 

Michael A. Taylor kept the power surge pumping with three home runs. Max Kepler went 8-for-18 with a homer and three doubles, lifting his OPS on the season north of the .800 mark. Kyle Farmer had a much-needed productive offensive week, collecting five hits in 11 at-bats, including a pair of bombs.

In a dramatic turnaround from the first half, the Twins now have an offense that can run with the big boys, and that's before you factor the potential returns of Buxton and Kirilloff. 

They also have a verifiable ace-level performer atop their rotation, which is not something we've been able to say in a long while. Sonny Gray spun another gem on Friday, tossing seven innings of one-run ball to lower his ERA to 3.05. That figure ranks sixth in all of baseball, and Gray is fifth in fWAR behind only Zack Wheeler, Spencer Strider, Zac Gallen and Kevin Gausman. If not for his paltry win total, Gray would be a prime contender for Cy Young consideration.

But while the rotation and offense keep offering reasons to believe in this team's viability, the mounting bullpen lapses are preventing that confidence – along with their control of the AL Central – from becoming firmly solidified.

LOWLIGHTS

This past week, same as the last week, troubling breakdowns in the relief corps were the main source of consternation. 

On Tuesday, Dylan Floro entered with a one-run lead after Ober's five solid innings, then gave up five runs on six hits in one inning, turning a winnable game into a lopsided loss. The following day, Minnesota's top four relievers – Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, Caleb Thielbar, Emilio Pagán – combined to give up five runs on seven hits in 4 ⅔ innings. 

On Saturday, Jax had his second total meltdown in 11 days, entering in the ninth of a tie game and giving up four earned while recording just one out as he completely lost command of the strike zone.

 

The week ended on a high note for the bullpen, which came through brilliantly in a 13-inning grudge match on Sunday, but that hardly negates the alarms being raised by this unit. 

The rough stretches for Thielbar – who gave up two runs in three innings, though he threw a dominant 11th frame on Sunday – and Jax are most worrisome. Jax has a 6.48 ERA and 6.39 FIP in 16 ⅔ innings since the All-Star break, with dwindling strikeout rates and deteriorating control. This isn't just bad luck anymore.

If Jax continues to trend in the wrong direction, the long-shot scenarios of Stewart or Alcala coming back and handling high leverage work suddenly become rather essential instead of luxurious. Otherwise the Twins might need to get creative by, say, converting Louie Varland into a short-burst relief role, which they've hinted at.

TRENDING STORYLINE

Willi Castro started a rehab assignment in St. Paul over the weekend and his return to the Twins is looking imminent, though an anticipated paternity list trip will delay him a bit. Rocco Baldelli will welcome his cherished gadget player, with Castro bringing speed, defensive versatility and switch-hitting ability to make himself a skipper's best friend.

The question of course becomes: who goes to make room? The most likely answer seems to be Jordan Luplow, who has cooled off significantly after a hot start for the Twins, batting .080 with one RBI in his past 10 games. That would however leave the Twins lacking for a quality RH outfield bat, which is not a role Castro fills particularly well.

Personally, I wonder if the Twins might think about placing their slumping-again shortstop Carlos Correa on the injured list to rest up his feet. He's looked rough lately and was especially brutal on Sunday, where he went 0-for-4 with a GIDP and error. The Twins can get by for awhile with Farmer and Lewis splitting time at short – especially with Castro returning to provide depth at third. 

They'd miss Correa's glove, but wouldn't be losing much offensively. And if the Twins think this plan would have any real chance of getting C4 into a better place by the time October rolls around, it's worth a shot.

LOOKING AHEAD

Cleveland is coming to town, with their season more or less on life support. The Guardians could vault themselves back into legitimate contention by sweeping the series, thus closing the gap in the Central to three games, but anything less than a series victory is going to leave them in pretty dire straits. Meanwhile, a sweep by the Twins would essentially seal the deal, leaving them ahead by nine games with 28 left to play.

A tough series in Texas follows over the weekend, so needless to say, Minnesota needs to be focused on taking care of business in their final home series against the shabby Clevelanders. Get it done here and you can more or less put it on cruise control for September.

MONDAY, 8/28: GUARDIANS @ TWINS – RHP Xzavion Curry v. RHP Kenta Maeda
TUESDAY, 8/29: GUARDIANS @ TWINS – RHP Gavin Williams v. RHP Pablo Lopez
WEDNESDAY, 8/30: GUARDIANS @ TWINS – RHP Tanner Bibee v. RHP Sonny Gray
FRIDAY, 9/1: TWINS @ RANGERS – RHP Joe Ryan v. RHP Max Scherzer
SATURDAY, 9/2: TWINS @ RANGERS – RHP Bailey Ober v. LHP Jordan Montgomery
SUNDAY, 9/3: TWINS @ RANGERS – RHP Kenta Maeda v. RHP Jon Gray

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[tarheeltwinsfan]

 I would like to add Josh Winder's 3 innings of shutout relief as a positive addition to the Twins success this week. Thank you.

[JD-TWINS]

Farmer - Solano - Kepler are just getting hits & more hits. For Kepler to be up to .250BA & over .800 OPS is unbelievable, frankly. He may be the best all around right fielder in the AL right now? He’s batting 3rd and getting one or two hits a day.

Kuechel has given up 7 earned runs in 4 appearances to date (6 in one inning) over 18 innings. ERA of 3.50……outstanding pick up. Got Ryan healed and only one rocky game.

Like the piggyback concept. Maybe do it with Kuechel & Winder to give Ober a skipped start? He needs a break! Ober can be optioned - could bring Varland up and get 2 skipped starts for Ober?

If we had Old School management, Joey Gallo would have been DFA’d at about 6:00 p.m CST today……….what kind of base running was that???

Castro will be back Friday (3 games to get through) with roster expansion and should be in the OF daily to hide Luplow/Gallo & Taylor til his leg is right.

Best news of all is Kirilloff is nearing a re-hab stint in the next 7-10 days……really need that guy! Solano is playing almost flawlessly in Kirilloff’s absence though!

Batting order with associated OPS:

Julien.. .857 - Polanco.. .750 - Kepler.. .801 - CC.. .715 - Kirilloff.. .799 - Wallner.. .878 - Lewis.. .885 - Jeffers.. .884 - Castro.. .692 v. RH starting pitching………coming soon!! 6 lefties that can hit + Lewis & CC & Jeffers 

Expanded rostered guys:

Taylor/Solano/Farmer/Vazquez …..probably Luplow & Gallo……Buxton displaces one of the last 2 guys at some point mid-September.

18-13 from here on out to get to 86 wins - nice goal for the Division title!

[High heat]

Can we finally put some dirt on Cleveland and bury them!  
 

I like the piggy back today would have been a big bullpen saver except they had to throw 4 extra inning with some bad baseball. 
 

The bullpen mess has to be resolved or we have no chance!  Maybe Jax and Duran get some rest and Stewart comes back healthy. Here’s to hoping I guess

[JD-TWINS]

Kepler’s .250BA - 21 HR - .802 OPS & solid D makes him one of the top 3-4 Right Fielders in the AL ……..Top 6-7 in the game!!

Verdugo - Garcia are similar offensively with BA & OPS & just a few ticks ahead of Kepler.

Don't see other guys play much but Max’s defense is still top shelf!

[by jiminy]

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

If we had Old School management, Joey Gallo would have been DFA’d at about 6:00 p.m CST today……….what kind of base running was that???

I'll defend Gallo on that base running gaffe. The infielder made a tough, off-balance catch of a foul ball with his back to the infield. Gallo smartly tagged up and started toward third base to force a throw. He also smartly did not actually go to third. He stopped and returned to second.  A bad throw to second could have gotten him to third or even home.  The only problem is he fell down.  That got him tagged out.  It took a fantastic throw though.  So, yes, it was a painful and unnecessary out, and was his fault.  But it was not a boneheaded TOOTBLAN in my opinion.  The problem was execution not stupidity.  I liked his aggressiveness and his decisions.  Nobody plans on falling down.  But I'll take that to just standing around and watching.  

[Boswell]

The cruise control is already set at .512… 83-79.   😜

[D.C Twins]

"That would however leave the Twins lacking for a quality RH outfield bat"  

Thats OK... they are already lacking a quality RH outfield bat with Luplow on the roster... 

And at least with him off the roster, it will remove the temptation for Rocco to inexplicably use him #3 in the batting order. 

[by jiminy]

43 minutes ago, High heat said:

The bullpen mess has to be resolved or we have no chance!  Maybe Jax and Duran get some rest and Stewart comes back healthy. Here’s to hoping I guess

I agree --it would be great if they could bury Cleveland soon so Jax and Duran could get some rest!  They are starting to worry me.  But I think there is a good chance it is just from overuse.

As for the pen problems in general, I think there is a real chance of improvement despite the lack of additions at the trade deadline. By playoff time, the bullpen reinforcements could include Maeda, Varland, Alcala, Paddack, Stewart, and a healthy Thielbar. 

I think any of those guys could bring as much as a mid-level reliever acquired in trade, without costing us more prospects.  They are all a gamble in one way or another, but so is any reliever.  The pen remains a worry but I think it will be better by playoff time, even without a trade. 

And you gotta figure that about half the trades you make, there is a good chance you wish you could take back.  Last year was not some huge outlier, or even really a failure.  Every trade is a gamble.  We gambled and lost.  This time we gambled and may lose again.  But we at least didn't lose any prospects.  And if even three of the six people above pan out, it could be a very solid win, for this year and the future. 

I think all six of those guys are realistically as good as almost anyone we would have gotten in trade, unless we were willing to part with someone too good to give up.

They were right about the offense coming around with what we had in house.  Maybe they will be right about the bullpen coming around, too.

[cooldude]

I love the idea of Maeda, Paddock, or Varland in the BP for the playoffs.

Always look forward to these weekly updates--thanks, Nick!

[arby58]

9 hours ago, Boswell said:

The cruise control is already set at .512… 83-79.   😜

Given that they have the second easiest schedule remaining in MLB, I think suggesting they will have a losing record the rest of the way is overly negative. I'd forecast 85 or 86 wins.

[mikelink45]

I am no longer concerned about Cleveland (no jinx intended).  Their team has been hurt by injuries and a lack of offense.  I do not see them competing unless they decide that they have to do something to honor Francona and play above their heads.

The modern 5 inning starter is impacting many BPs.  The Orioles have lost their shut down starter for example.  A new strategy is needed.  I do think giving Duran and Jax an extended rest is a good idea, the same with Ober (so sorry to see his excellent season being hit with fatigue). Varland can take his place while he is skipped for one start.  Ober's stats.

Date	Tm		Opp	Result	App,Dec	DR	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	HBP	WP	IBB	PO	BK	BF	Pit	Str	StL	StS	GB	FB	LD	PU	Unk	GmSc	IR	IS	WPA	aLI	cWPA	acLi	RE24
2023-08-27	MIN		TEX	W 7-6 (13)	GS-4	4	4.0	5	5	5	1	4	2	0	0	0	0	0	18	73	52	10	7	5	7	1	0	0	35.0			-0.241	0.84	-0.09%	0.54	-2.910
2023-08-22	MIN	@	MIL	L 3-7	GS-5	6	5.0	2	2	2	3	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	19	78	50	10	13	5	4	2	2	0	55.0			0.101	0.93	0.04%	0.62	0.590
2023-08-15	MIN		DET	W 5-3	GS-5	5	5.0	4	2	2	3	6	1	0	0	0	0	0	20	87	56	11	12	7	2	1	1	0	54.0			0.011	0.89	0.01%	0.81	0.590
2023-08-09	MIN	@	DET	L 5-9	GS-5, L	4	5.0	11	5	4	1	9	1	0	0	0	0	0	27	93	64	9	20	4	4	7	2	0	35.0			-0.294	1.09	-0.16%	0.97	-2.416
2023-08-04	MIN		ARI	W 3-2	GS-5	5	5.0	6	2	2	0	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	22	104	72	15	15	5	11	2	0	0	50.0			0.020	0.95	0.01%	0.93	0.551

[TopGunn#22]

The idea of Paddock being available in the BP as well as moving Maeda and Keuchel there once we hit post season (Lopez, Gray and Ryan would be the starters, Ober as well if they give him some time to rest and get back on track).  Throw Stewart into the mix and you have flame throwers mixed with crafty pitchers that could be just the medicine the Twins need.

Castro coming back will probably displace Luplow.  Kirilloff coming back SHOULD displace Gallo (finally).  Buxton coming back (??) who knows who goes?  I agree 110% with JD-Twins...they need Kirilloff!!!  Hitting 3rd, 4th or 5th, if Kirilloff is healthy and "right" he's an impact bat that could be huge for the Twins.  Especially with Lewis back.  There is a LOT of talent sitting on the sidelines for the Twins.  Getting these guys healthy was basically the trade deadline strategy of the F.O.

[JD-TWINS]

10 hours ago, by jiminy said:

I'll defend Gallo on that base running gaffe. The infielder made a tough, off-balance catch of a foul ball with his back to the infield. Gallo smartly tagged up and started toward third base to force a throw. He also smartly did not actually go to third. He stopped and returned to second.  A bad throw to second could have gotten him to third or even home.  The only problem is he fell down.  That got him tagged out.  It took a fantastic throw though.  So, yes, it was a painful and unnecessary out, and was his fault.  But it was not a boneheaded TOOTBLAN in my opinion.  The problem was execution not stupidity.  I liked his aggressiveness and his decisions.  Nobody plans on falling down.  But I'll take that to just standing around and watching.  

It’s a tie game in extra’s and you are in scoring position - no earthly reason to be aggressive on a pop foul ball on the infield! I understand he didn’t plan on falling down but after the catch we got 2 more shots at driving him in for the win - then no chance - come on Joey.

 

[stringer bell]

11 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

The idea of Paddock being available in the BP as well as moving Maeda and Keuchel there once we hit post season (Lopez, Gray and Ryan would be the starters, Ober as well if they give him some time to rest and get back on track).  Throw Stewart into the mix and you have flame throwers mixed with crafty pitchers that could be just the medicine the Twins need.

Castro coming back will probably displace Luplow.  Kirilloff coming back SHOULD displace Gallo (finally).  Buxton coming back (??) who knows who goes?  I agree 110% with JD-Twins...they need Kirilloff!!!  Hitting 3rd, 4th or 5th, if Kirilloff is healthy and "right" he's an impact bat that could be huge for the Twins.  Especially with Lewis back.  There is a LOT of talent sitting on the sidelines for the Twins.  Getting these guys healthy was basically the trade deadline strategy of the F.O.

Do remember that the Twins can add two players on September 1. Only one can be a pitcher, but adding all of Castro, Kirilloff and Buxton could require only removing one position player. Of course, injuries can also occur and are likely. I do believe Luplow is on thin ice and if all three players come back healthy that Gallo could be DFAed. 

[VivaBomboRivera!]

Quote

In a dramatic turnaround from the first half, the Twins now have an offense that can run with the big boys, and that's before you factor the potential returns of Buxton and Kirilloff. 

That assessment might be a tad over-dramatic since the team has posted just a 28-21 record since that team meeting. They could easily be at 31 - 18 for that stretch had they not suffered some breakdowns along the way.

Cross-posting from that forum thread, "there has been a significant incremental improvement in offensive output, with some latent weaknesses still unaddressed. Objectively, there has been a positive change that is reflected in the win-loss record, but it would be a stretch to say we've been in a new season since 30 June.

"What we can say is that the Twins are holding their own, giving somewhat better than they get, and the possibility of at lease two post-season home games is increasing by the day."

 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

4 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

It’s a tie game in extra’s and you are in scoring position - no earthly reason to be aggressive on a pop foul ball on the infield! I understand he didn’t plan on falling down but after the catch we got 2 more shots at driving him in for the win - then no chance - come on Joey.

 

The odds of scoring from 3B with 1 out is 66%. The odds of scoring from 2B with one out is 41%. Gallo was correct in how he handled the situation last night, only he fell down. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Just now, tarheeltwinsfan said:

The odds of scoring from 3B with 1 out is 66%. The odds of scoring from 2B with one out is 41%. Gallo was correct in how he handled the situation last night, only he fell down. 

By the way, the odds of scoring from 2B with zero outs is 61%, while the odds of scoring from 3B after a sacrifice bunt, resulting in 1 out, is 66%. This makes me rethink my yelling "BUNT" at the computer screen every time a Twins' batter comes to bat with a Twin on on 2B with no outs. Maybe I'll start yelling, "Hit the ball to the right side of the field" when a Twin is on 2B with zero or 1 out. 

[USAFChief]

14 hours ago, by jiminy said:

I'll defend Gallo on that base running gaffe. The infielder made a tough, off-balance catch of a foul ball with his back to the infield. Gallo smartly tagged up and started toward third base to force a throw. He also smartly did not actually go to third. He stopped and returned to second.  A bad throw to second could have gotten him to third or even home.  The only problem is he fell down.  That got him tagged out.  It took a fantastic throw though.  So, yes, it was a painful and unnecessary out, and was his fault.  But it was not a boneheaded TOOTBLAN in my opinion.  The problem was execution not stupidity.  I liked his aggressiveness and his decisions.  Nobody plans on falling down.  But I'll take that to just standing around and watching.  

Concur.

On the other hand, Solano running to third with the third baseman holding the ball was some awful baserunning. 

[Nine of twelve]

18 hours ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

By the way, the odds of scoring from 2B with zero outs is 61%, while the odds of scoring from 3B after a sacrifice bunt, resulting in 1 out, is 66%. This makes me rethink my yelling "BUNT" at the computer screen every time a Twins' batter comes to bat with a Twin on on 2B with no outs. Maybe I'll start yelling, "Hit the ball to the right side of the field" when a Twin is on 2B with zero or 1 out. 

I’m sure these percentages differ when the game is tied in the home half of the ninth (or later) inning. In that circumstance if the batter is a good bunter I would almost always bunt with a runner on 2nd and none out. And I’m far more likely to squeeze with a runner on 3rd and one out. 

[arby58]

23 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

It’s a tie game in extra’s and you are in scoring position - no earthly reason to be aggressive on a pop foul ball on the infield! I understand he didn’t plan on falling down but after the catch we got 2 more shots at driving him in for the win - then no chance - come on Joey.

 

Getting to third with one out significantly increases the chances of scoring, since the infield has to come in, a sacrifice fly now scores the run, as would a wild pitch. It's not a 'no brainer' to stay on second.