The Twins and the Future of the AL Central

[NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin]

The AL Central has been bad in 2023. Fortunately for the Twins, the lack of competence exhibited by the other four members of the division will likely result in a playoff berth. While the assumption would be that the division could not possibly get worse, I believe there is a really strong chance that the AL Central remains a garbage heap for the next half-decade.

The Kansas City Royals:

The last small-market team to win a WS, the Royals dismantled the core of their 2015 championship run at the end of the 2017 season (mainly via players walking in free agency) and proceeded to lose 100+ games in '18 and '19, resulting in two top-5 selections in the MLB draft. They used their 2nd overall pick on Bobby Witt Jr in '19, but Asa Lacy (4th OVR '20) looks like a bust. Since Witt graduated, their farm system has ranked among the worst in the league (currently ranked 29th by MLB.com), and they have really struggled to develop consistent MLB players. They are currently in the midst of a second rebuild and are at least five years away from making any serious noise.

Key Young Players: Bobby Witt (23 y/o, FA '27), Brady Singer (27 y/o, FA '26), and Vinny Pasquantino (25 y/o, FA '28)

Farm: 29/30

The Chicago White Sox

Boy, their window shut fast. After blowing up whatever experiment they had going on (around '17), they netted themselves a bevy of highly-touted prospects. Eloy Jimenez, Dylan Cease, Michael Kopech, Yoan Moncada, Lucas Giolitto, and others were acquired by trading away Chris Sale, Jose Quintana, and Adam Eaton. Homegrown talents like Luis Robert Jr and Tim Anderson also added excitement to the young team and they looked to be a contender for the next half-decade. In '23, Giolitto was traded, Jimenez and Moncada are playing on underwater contracts, Kopech and Anderson are underperforming, leaving Cease and Robert to be the only true stars left from their rebuild. After berths in '20 and '21 (failing to win a series each time), they are looking to blow everything up again.

Key Young Players: Luis Robert (25 y/o, FA '27), Dylan Cease (27 y/o, FA 25'), and Colson Montgomery (21 y/o, MLB #17)

Farm: 26/30

The Detroit Tigers

Like the Royals and Sox, the Tigers are currently in their second consecutive rebuild. Spencer Torkelson and Riley Greene have looked as good as advertised, yet the rest of their roster/farm looks barren. Their pitching has been banged up, Javier Baez owns one of the worst contracts in baseball, and they really only have two marquee prospects (and not much after that). While their pair of potential superstars may offer the not-so-nice people of Michigan some hope, they don't exactly have a bunch of talent on the farm. On the bright side, they do shed the contracts of Tyler Boyd, Miguel Cabrera, and Eduardo Rodriguez this offseason, so they do have FA money to spend if they are so inclined.

Key Young Players: Riley Greene (22 y/o, FA '28), Tarik Skubal (26 y/o, FA '26), Spencer Torkelson (23 y/o, FA '28), Max Clark (18 y/o, MLB #15), and Colton Kieth (22 y/o, MLB #26)

Farm: 25/30

The Cleveland Guardians

In my mind, the Guardians are the only real threat to the Twins in the coming years. They refuse to spend money; however, they have an exceptionally young (and good) pitching staff and a wave of prospects heading to Cleveland (or already there). Jose Ramirez is currently on the most team-friendly extension imaginable, and only he, Bieber, and Quantrill are making more than $5M in '23. Other young starters like Williams, Allen, McKenzie, and Bibee give Cleveland a plethora of young arms through the '26 season. The real question with Cleveland would be their willingness to spend money, especially on a power hitter, something they sorely lack.

Key Young Players: Emmanuel Clase (25 y/o, FA '28), Steven Kwan (25 y/o, FA '27), Tanner Bibee (24 y/o, FA '29), Brayan Rocchio (22 y/o, FA '29), Josh Naylor (26 y/o, FA '26), and Bo Naylor (23 y/o, FA '29)

Farm: 4/30

The Minnesota Twins

Say what you will about the Falvine FO, but the Twins have at least attempted to be competitive every year they've been in MN. Their payroll is around league average, and they've done a good job of developing hitters, especially. Most of the hope for the future lies in five all-star caliber pitchers under contract through '27, and several highly-touted young hitters. While the farm is not ranked very highly (unlike Cleveland), many recent graduates (Lewis, Julien, Kirilloff, and Wallner) were ranked in the top-100 before losing prospect status. Overall, the organization is quite deep and has a number of ceiling-less prospects/young players that could take the team to the next level. Veteran stars Buxton and Correa are currently signed through '28; however, their contracts look more like Javy Baez's than Jose Ramirez's at this point.

Key Young Players: Joe Ryan (27 y/o, FA '27), Bailey Ober (27 y/o, FA '27), Pablo Lopez (27 y/o, FA '27), Jhoan Duran (25 y/o, FA '27), Royce Lewis (24 y/o, FA '28), Walter Jenkins (18 y/o, MLB #16), and Brooks Lee (22 y/o, MLB #18)

Farm: 19/30

Conclusion

The Twins have a unique advantage in the coming years. With three divisional opponents rebuilding and a Guardians team that refuses to spend, they should seize the opportunity and build rosters for October. Although Cleveland has a ton of highly-touted young players, the Twins can and will field better rosters through the sheer fact that their budget is twice as high. A unique and (somewhat) unprecedented opportunity awaits the Twins for the next four or five years to take a number of hearty bites of the postseason apple. In my opinion, failing to make the playoffs multiple times would be more shameful than the fact they haven't won a playoff game since I've been able to eat solid food. They simply have to take advantage of the competitive advantage they've been handed.

[Althebum82]

Interesting look at farm system rankings.  If this is based strictly on prospects only, then I would buy that the Twins could rank 19th.  There is no doubt, though, that the Saints offer more talent than only prospects, with much of their success coming from players with previous MLB reps or those who have never been considered prospects.

But, "systems" do run deeper than the top level, of course.

While the Baez deal doesn't quite approach Bobby Bonilla-territory, it certainly is looking like a sincere stinker.

After seeing the Tigers master the Twins this season, it is head-scratching that the rest of their season has gone so poorly.

But, the fact that they gave up on Akil Badoo and then changed their minds and decided he should be their lead-off guy is probably a good illustration of their overall limited talent,

[Dave Borton]

4 hours ago, NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin said:

On the bright side, they do shed the contracts of ... Miguel Cabrera

Cabrera may be retiring but has $30MM contract years in '24 and '25.

[Dave Borton]

4 hours ago, NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin said:

I believe there is a really strong chance that the AL Central remains a garbage heap for the next half-decade.

The quality (sic) of the AL Central may well force MLB to hasten expansion w/new franchises. With Oak issued resolved (?) w/its move to Vegas, MLB may quickly add new franchises and realign a geographic setup w/NL teams.

Owners have a vested interest to fix the AL Central Div. They know they need  a more competitive product. Might we see a "MLB North Central," with the addition of Cubs, Reds, Brewers?

[FlyingFinn]

The Twins prospects rank as high as #11 by one national rating (I forget who). Great article.

[Peter]

The twins are going to be better than ever in the next 5 years with our draft picks this year and with young players this year. With pablo c4 and buxton signed long term. Future looks great for twins. Asides from Cleveland/Detroit/possibly Chicago it’s going to be interesting division. And yes realignment will happen as mlb will go to 32 teams and I’ve heard al central may very well be cubs/white sox/brewers and twins. 

[NotAboutWinning]

3 minutes ago, Peter said:

The twins are going to be better than ever in the next 5 years with our draft picks this year and with young players this year. With pablo c4 and buxton signed long term. Future looks great for twins. Asides from Cleveland/Detroit/possibly Chicago it’s going to be interesting division. And yes realignment will happen as mlb will go to 32 teams and I’ve heard al central may very well be cubs/white sox/brewers and twins. 

IMO, that would be an interesting and fun pennant race to watch.

[JD-TWINS]

I like Cleveland - Detroit - Milwaukee - Minnesota as balance of like markets & geography……..Chicago clubs should hook up with Missouri clubs. Cleveland/Detroit/Toronto/Cincinnati makes sense as well. Too many options & doesn’t matter what I think.

Tough to continually take advantage long-term of a Division that only exists a couple more years.

Lee, as an additional effective RH batter in ‘24 at some point, added to Lewis/Kirilloff/Julien/Wallner/Jeffers……. is really exciting.

Kepler/CC/Buxton as the low end performers in a line-up is encouraging to me…….need health.

Re-sign Maeda and look at a veteran or two for our bullpen.

Solano will be tough to let go…….Farmer is CC insurance and solid everywhere else as a platoon. Castro can be the speedy glue guy.

Leaves a spot open for a bat (Martin?) and we should have $52M from this year’s payroll after Gallo-Polanco-Mahle-Gray-Taylor are gone.

[Brandon]

Johnny Mize is still with Detroit. He is coming back from TJ surgery next season and is a solid starter.  With all of the money they have coming off the books they spend it properly they could be a flawed .500 team next year.  That’s competitive in our division.

[Patzky]

The Tigers have a core. The Guardians have a rotation. The Twins have both. The Sox have a comedy show .

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

Ranking the farm system is so difficult.  This ranking says 19,  Law says 11 -  and I wouldn't be surprised at all if the players end up being in the 5-8 range.   The A and A+ ball club seem to do a really good job at developing players and in the fact the organization seems to be doing a really good job drafting.  In the most recent draft all 4 bats are either performing or over performing expectations.  The Twins are slow playing the pitchers as usual but I am really looking forward to next year to see how high of a ceiling some of the pitchers have.  I am really high on the 2022 and 2023 draft classes.  

I actually like the core of batters Detroit is putting together,  the pitching side, will take a bit of a hit losing Rodriguez.   The White Sox got some good players in trades but their entire org seems like a big mess.   Cleveland is the only organization that looks like they will be able to compete for the next 5 years.   

However, it seems we are getting closer and closer to a realignment and the continued underperformance of the Central is one of the key reasons why.  

[Mike Sixel]

I like this team's odds of being a division winner the next few years, if they trust their farm system and keep supplementing the SP with outside arms.....now if we could figure out the RP....

[alexlegge]

In some ways this team feels like it is built better for the postseason than the regular season. That goes for 2024 as well. It's worth noting that several lousy iterations of the AL Central have featured underdog teams who advanced in the playoffs; the 2012 Tigers, 2014 Royals, and even last year's Guardians all won playoff series. So what was the common thread between those teams? Solid pitching staffs and streaky offenses. That seems to be the best mid-market approach. This year's Twins certainly fit that mold far better than any Terry Ryan team.  If their offense is clicking on all cylinders at the right time, I think there's a much better chance that the pitching can carry them deep into the postseason. If not this year the same would theoretically be true for next year. Hopefully Maeda's capable post-surgery performance also bodes well for the 2024 version of Paddock.

And here's a random fun fact: the 2023 Twins were outscored by 10 runs while being swept in Atlanta, edging the 1991 Twins' trip to Atlanta, when they were swept and outscored by 11 runs. 

[MMMordabito]

5 hours ago, Brandon said:

Johnny Mize is still with Detroit. 

Looks like he tipped over 30 years ago. 😉

[Battle ur tail off]

14 hours ago, NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin said:

 

The Twins have a unique advantage in the coming years. With three divisional opponents rebuilding and a Guardians team that refuses to spend, they should seize the opportunity and build rosters for October. 

Some would argue this roster is built for October. The pitching staff certainly is. 1 more stud relief pitcher and another right handed bat for next year could be added, but this pitching staff(at least the starters) is playoff ready. 

[IndianaTwin]

1 hour ago, MMMordabito said:

Looks like he tipped over 30 years ago. 😉

Good as he was, he might still improve their lineup. 

Then add Casey Mize to the mix and that would help their pitching staff. 😃

[Brandon]

1 hour ago, MMMordabito said:

Looks like he tipped over 30 years ago. 😉

I meant Casey Mize.  Oops

[Patzky]

1 hour ago, Battle ur tail off said:

Some would argue this roster is built for October. The pitching staff certainly is. 1 more stud relief pitcher and another right handed bat for next year could be added, but this pitching staff(at least the starters) is playoff ready. 

I'd be okay seeing Keuchel come in to clean up Gray's one crappy inning. 

[Teflon]

16 hours ago, NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin said:

Although Cleveland has a ton of highly-touted young players, the Twins can and will field better rosters through the sheer fact that their budget is twice as high. 

I wouldn't discount the proficiency of Cleveland's organization to develop players. Dollars spent aren't everything. (Please see the Rays and Orioles whose combined 2023 payrolls are less than the Twins)

[Major League Ready]

13 hours ago, Teflon said:

I wouldn't discount the proficiency of Cleveland's organization to develop players. Dollars spent aren't everything. (Please see the Rays and Orioles whose combined 2023 payrolls are less than the Twins)

Good point.  I would add that the Mets / Padres and the Yankees are individually spending roughly the equivalent of the Twins/Rays/Orioles combined.  That said, the Twins will have an advantage because they have so many young/inexpensive players which has allowed them to extend Buxton / Lopez and sign Correa while still having room to fill a couple holes like a RH bat and a good BP arm.

[Beast]

I’m not too concerned about prospect rankings at this point.  We could end up having 3 top 25 prospects shortly with Jenkins, Rodriguez, and Lee.  I’d feel pretty good about that vs. the division, even though we’re light on high-end pitching prospects.

As far as young guys breaking through into the majors, Witt would scare me the most.  That guy is a monster.  He’s already a top 15-20 player in the MLB.  But, I have no faith that the Royals will build anything around him.  He could probably get a $300 million+ contract once eligible. He’ll end up getting dealt to a big market club.  So, not too concerned there.

Cleveland is always going to be there.  At least as long as their current brain trust and management are around.  I don’t need to look at their up and coming players, prospect rankings, etc.  But, I’m  it overly concerned about them dominating the division for long periods of time.  They’ll be a factory, but you don’t have to be the ‘98 Yankees to beat them.

The Tigers have done a good job of rebuilding.  They have a solid system right now to add to some good young guys like Greene, Torkelson, Skubal, Meadows.  When they get Cabrera’s $30+M/yr. off the books, they could give the Twins a lot of trouble.

The White Sox could be very scary if they can stop shooting them selves in the foot.  They have an absolute stud in Robert on a 6 year, $50M deal, with team options through 2027.  That was robbery.  He’s won a gold glove.  He’s a monster at the plate.  He’s what we hoped Buxton may turn into…..on a better contract.  Despite his struggles, Dylan Cease is still one of the best starters in the AL for my money (FIP of 3.77 this year with 163 Ks in 138 IP).  They’re not afraid to be aggressive when it comes to player acquisition.  They probably shouldn’t, but I think they scare me the most.