Jorge Polanco’s Twins Tenure is Approaching an End

[Dman]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

A couple questions come to mind when considering Polanco for 2024.  Does Lewis remain at 3B or does he become a super utility?  Do they believe Lee will be here by June 1st next year.  Do they believe in Prato as a bench player at 2B/3B.   Are they bringing Gordon back?  I could see keeping Polanco instead of Farmer.  They both don't fit on the roster IMO. 

I guess the other question is can they get something back in trade.  With all the other options, he is expendable if they can get back a decent prospect.  The best option could be to keep him until the trade deadline while working in Lee/Prato/Severino the early part of 24.

I agree.  If they can get something back in trade they should move him.  Nothing is guaranteed but Severino is essentially his replacement as he can play 2nd and third.  He is a switch hitter just like Polanco and while he is power over hit he can hit pretty well.  Even if you don't see Severino filling his spot then Lee certainly will it is just a matter of time there. I like your Prato suggestion as well.  While he has cooled off in August his walk and K rate are still balanced so he has the eye at the plate to help his tools translate.  If needed he could fill the Polanco role as well.

Don't get me wrong I don't think Polanco's is "easily" replaced but if this team is going to start acting more like the Rays and Guardians they should be moving on from vets and investing in their younger guys.  Using the Vet's to help bolster the farm with prospects. If the Twins can find a decent return that would be my first option.

If they cannot trade him then I am willing to move on from Farmer instead.  I really like Farmer as a baseball player and person but he just hasn't performed well enough with the bat and Polanco is a more versatile and overall better bat.  If space on the 40 man is needed I would consider moving on from Farmer.  Lewis can play short if Correa needs a break and when Lee comes up he can play there too if needed.

[strumdatjag]

Many years ago, I went to see a Kernals game in Cedar Rapids.  The purpose was to see the number one prospect Byron Buxton.   Jose Berrios started the game.  However, the star of the game was Jorge Polanco.  
I am biased as a longtime fan of this player and lean towards keeping him one more year.  Next year’s salary seems reasonable for a super-sub utility infielder.   Hopefully, Polo is willing to accept a reduced role as talented younger players are promoted. 

[DJL44]

Similar signings last offseason

Jean Segura 2 years $17M (underperforming)

Brandon Drury 2 years $17M (meets expectations)

Aledmys Diaz 2 years $14.5M (underperforming)

Matt Carpenter 2 years $12M (underperforming)

Jace Peterson 2 years $9.5M (meets expectations)

Adam Frazier 1 year $8M (meets expectations)

Wil Myers 1 year $7.5M (underperforming)

Jeimer Candelario 1 year $5M (OVERperforming)

Evan Longoria 1 year $4M (meet expectations)

Elvis Andrus 1 year $3M (underperforming)

Donovan Solano 1 year $2M (OVERperforming)

Josh Harrison 1 year $2M (underperforming)

Willi Castro 1 year $1.8M (OVERperforming)

[JD-TWINS]

3 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

I would bring him back and not take Farmer to his third year of arbitration. Farmer is at 5.85 million now and that will increase so the difference in salary between Polanco and Farmer isn’t significant. Farmer may be healthier but has no upside and is 33.

To me the choice is to keep one of the two veterans or let go of both. I am keeping Polanco. They won’t have 12 position players better than him. The team will be better with him.

 

He was hurt last year & has played 48 of 122 games this year. Farmer has played 88 games & got hit in the face to force him to miss around 25.

Defensive stat shown here at TD 3-4 days ago regarding 2B defense for a Julien comparison,  had Polanco at -2 whatever’s….., Julien at -1 …….Farmer at +1.

The availability is the big issue & risk.

I don’t see Kepler crumbling over next month the way he’s going right now……..I think they pick his option & that locks Kirilloff out of the grass & on to the dirt!

[Brandon]

4 hours ago, Dale Powers said:

Exercise the option. Use him as a "super sub" at 2B, SS, and 3B

And DH and 1B and maybe LF.  

[Brandon]

I see them exercising the option.  Lee will not likely start the season in the majors and when he is ready then we can trade Polanco.  
Also they will pick up Keplers option too. 
As of this morning the international class of 2009 for the Twins Sano, Kepler and Polanco have combined to hit 416 Homer’s and counting.  Kepler is 12 away from catching Sano.  Sano has 161, Kepler has 149 and Polanco 106.  

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, strumdatjag said:

Many years ago, I went to see a Kernals game in Cedar Rapids.  The purpose was to see the number one prospect Byron Buxton.   Jose Berrios started the game.  However, the star of the game was Jorge Polanco.  
I am biased as a longtime fan of this player and lean towards keeping him one more year.  Next year’s salary seems reasonable for a super-sub utility infielder.   Hopefully, Polo is willing to accept a reduced role as talented younger players are promoted. 

He seems to be a real Team guy. If the Option is picked up, regardless of playing time guarantees, don’t now how he could be disappointed? He’s played in 48 of 122 games this year.

I like Polanco & if healthy I’d libby for him to be the guy!!

’24:

Lewis - CC - Julien - Kirilloff ……. Jeffers/Vázquez ………..Buxton

Wallner - Castro - Kepler…….

Solano - Farmer - (Taylor/Martin/Gordon/Lee - RH Free Agent OF??)

Don’t see a need nor a spot for Polanco…….could drop Farmer but we NEED availability!!!

[TwinsDr2021]

Got to say I don't understand the idea of turning positions over to unproven 24 (Severino) and 26 (Prato) old minor league players (ages at the start of next season) if they aren't given some time this year. I also don't see the Twins FO doing it either, I don't think they are going to let an above average league hitter go for nothing. (I am not against picking up the option and trading Polanco, I think mid market teams needs to get value from a player like this)

I can see the Twins maybe giving 1 prospect a starting position next year but no more. Who is that? Not sure

[MABB1959]

4 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

Unfortunately for fans, baseball is a business.  Most people would like Polo back in 2024 but financially he needs to be willing to renegotiate his contract and get paid around $5M/year for two years or he ges released.  The Twins should be happy with a two-year deal at that price because he might be an attractive trade asset at that price.

He is making peanuts compared to Buxton. Sadly Buxton really didn’t live up to expectations.  Maybe 1 or 2 seasons?

[jorgenswest]

54 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

He was hurt last year & has played 48 of 122 games this year. Farmer has played 88 games & got hit in the face to force him to miss around 25.

Defensive stat shown here at TD 3-4 days ago regarding 2B defense for a Julien comparison,  had Polanco at -2 whatever’s….., Julien at -1 …….Farmer at +1.

The availability is the big issue & risk.

I don’t see Kepler crumbling over next month the way he’s going right now……..I think they pick his option & that locks Kirilloff out of the grass & on to the dirt!

Am I understanding correctly that you would take Farmer and his third year arb. He is at 5.85 million so he will probably be around 8 million next year? I would keep Polanco.

We can both go to Fangraphs and find numbers to support out thoughts. I’m fact defense is like the varied WARs and a different metric will lead to a different ranking between Polanco and Julien. Until any of the metrics have a higher year to year correlation I think they are only valuable in three year chunks. I will leave with my Fangraphs take.

I like statcast batting numbers because they are based on data that stabilizes reasonably quickly. Polanco is third on the team in xSLG behind Wallner and Kepler and fourth in xwOBA (Solano is third). Wallner is a smaller sample but has a good lead. Julien is decimal points behind in xwOBA and essentially tied for fourth. Kyle Farmer is 13th and 12th. I think the difference in their bats is more significant than the difference in their gloves.

My other take is if they keep either Farmer or Polanco to opening day their salaries will keep them on the roster all season. This would be an argument to let both go and my second choice. Polanco will get injured and they will need to bring someone up like Lee or Prato or Severino. That doesn’t worry me. Farmer is more likely to stay healthy and will likely be on the 26 man most of the year. I would strongly prefer Polanco back filled by the depth they have rather than a healthy Farmer at 33 on the roster all season.

[bird]

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Castro has been far more valuable than Polanco this season. Baseball Reference has Castro as the #1 Twins position player.

I agree that Polanco could effectively replace Solano but is that worth $10.5M?

Actually, Jeffers has Castro beat by .5 WAR. I'd wager that five or more position players pass Castro by in these final 40 games, guys like Julien, Kepler, Correa, Lewis. and maybe even Polanco himself. The caveat to this is staying off the IL.

[DJL44]

25 minutes ago, MABB1959 said:

He is making peanuts compared to Buxton. Sadly Buxton really didn’t live up to expectations.  Maybe 1 or 2 seasons?

Buxton makes $15M next season. Polanco would make $10.5M

[DJL44]

25 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

Farmer is more likely to stay healthy and will likely be on the 26 man most of the year. I would strongly prefer Polanco back filled by the depth they have rather than a healthy Farmer at 33 on the roster all season.

So you'd rather have the more expensive player because he's more likely to be injured and miss games? That's some convoluted reasoning.

[RpR]

40 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Got to say I don't understand the idea of turning positions over to unproven 24 (Severino) and 26 (Prato) old minor league players (ages at the start of next season) if they aren't given some time this year. I also don't see the Twins FO doing it either, I don't think they are going to let an above average league hitter go for nothing. (I am not against picking up the option and trading Polanco, I think mid market teams needs to get value from a player like this)

I can see the Twins maybe giving 1 prospect a starting position next year but no more. Who is that? Not sure

There was a reason made by people whose life is baseball, that after the Spring Training this year some wonder boy rookies were back at AAA, same may happen next year.

[jorgenswest]

29 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

So you'd rather have the more expensive player because he's more likely to be injured and miss games? That's some convoluted reasoning.

I think he is a much better hitter and the combo of he and the call up are a better pairing than the decline of Farmer on the roster all year. The difference in their salaries will be so small it won’t impact the roster. The difference between either and a first year player is significant and if money matters I go with neither.

I get that you would take Farmer on the roster and acknowledge the likeliness that he is likely be  and provide better defense.

[Riverbrian]

26 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

So you'd rather have the more expensive player because he's more likely to be injured and miss games? That's some convoluted reasoning.

I know you addressed jorgenswest but I can't help myself. 

That isn't what he said. 

If Polanco gets hurt. Lee for example will get his chance because of the depth he is referring to.  

A healthy Farmer all year doesn't provide Lee with that chance. He just stays and under performs Polanco and maybe even under performs Lee. 

Polanco is better than Farmer. Polanco and Lee is better than Farmer.  

Full disclosure... I don't understand the discussion. I'm picking up the Polanco option. 

[jmlease1]

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Similar signings last offseason

Jean Segura 2 years $17M (underperforming)

Brandon Drury 2 years $17M (meets expectations)

Aledmys Diaz 2 years $14.5M (underperforming)

Matt Carpenter 2 years $12M (underperforming)

Jace Peterson 2 years $9.5M (meets expectations)

Adam Frazier 1 year $8M (meets expectations)

Wil Myers 1 year $7.5M (underperforming)

Jeimer Candelario 1 year $5M (OVERperforming)

Evan Longoria 1 year $4M (meet expectations)

Elvis Andrus 1 year $3M (underperforming)

Donovan Solano 1 year $2M (OVERperforming)

Josh Harrison 1 year $2M (underperforming)

Willi Castro 1 year $1.8M (OVERperforming)

These are similar signings to Polanco? Segura is 4 years older. Drury is a zero-time all-star who has put up a bWAR of above 2 exactly once in his career. Diaz has never had a season anywhere near Polanco's best in his career; his career best was his rookie year, which was about the same as Polanco last season (which was a down year from Jorge). Carpenter is 7 years older and other than a short stint last season hasn't hit a lick in 4 years. Peterson has been a league average or better hitter only once in his career, in a year that screams "small sample size", and isn't half the player Polanco is. Frazier is the best comp yet, but never had the peak years that Polanco has, and has basically never played anywhere in the infield other than 2B. Myers has basically never played infield anywhere other than 1B, hasn't been a quality starter in 5 years and was only a "we gotta take somebody off this horrible team" all-star. Candelario is a decent comp (though he's still never had the peaks that Polanco has). Longoria is 8 years older and hasn't played a full season since 2017. Andrus is 4 years older and hasn't been a quality starter since 2017; there's a reason no one offered him anything other than backup money. Solano is 5 years older and has never played a full season in his MLB career. Harrison is also 5 years older and much more consistently injured in that time. Castro is easily having his best season as a pro, and still isn't going to be a league average hitter this season. 

Even coming off another season with injuries, Polanco should do better than any of these guys did on the open market. $10.5M with a team option for another season is cheap.

The Twins concern with Polanco is more about playing time: Julien and Lewis have shown they belong, Lee is coming up fast, Kirilloff fits better at 1B, and Correa is locked in at SS with more prospects on the way and quality utility guys already in place. I think the Twins pick up the option but are likely entertaining a lot of trade offers in the offseason. If he can finish out the season looking like a quality player, there will be a significant market for a guy with all-star performances not that far behind him on a contract that's both short-term and very competitive.

[stringer bell]

Polanco has two team options available correct? I don't think it would be a bad idea to pick up the first option and look to trade him for the right offer. As far as him being a super-sub, the only position where he is close to average defensively is second base. With the supposed availability of Lewis, Correa, Julien, Miranda, Lee and Kirilloff, there really aren't enough at bats for all the younger players.

[RpR]

2 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

 With the supposed availability of Lewis, Correa, Julien, Miranda, Lee and Kirilloff, there really aren't enough at bats for all the younger players.

That is assuming, they are all still in the Twins Org.

Twins need pitching.

[bird]

If I'm GM, I pick up next year's option. The difference in cost between Polanco and whomever gets sacrificed (Farmer for THIS GM) is immaterial in the scheme of things.

Brooks Lee has been pushed upstream to AAA fast because my field staff believes he has almost no chance to be underwhelming when called up in June and plugged in...at 3rd base. Why there? Because THIS GM is moving BOTH Martin and Lewis to the OF. Kirilloff stays put, Julien gets a 1B glove in case but stays at 2B for now, with Polanco at 3B until he's "relegated" to an INF utility role. Kepler gets traded in the off-season for a couple of low minors prospects (we're gonna lose too many prospects to Rule V as it is, given the heightened awareness of the draft/development skills as a result of the Steer/CES success stories). I want high risk/high reward prospects (think Ariel Castro and Yasser Mercedes of the present and Yunior Severino of the past). So bye bye to Farmer, Gallo, and Taylor for sure, and Castro stays put...for the time being.

Buxton needs to sink or swim as a defender, so I throw him to the wolves out here in CF until a wheel comes off. He's not a DH, but hopefully he gets his body and head straight and stops looking like an A-baller at the plate. And if Correa performs like he has, he gets tons of bench time. THIS GM is done having a lineup full of rally killers. I'm hoping Wallner doesn't kill or create on defense too many  rallies as a starting RF.

Now...if my field staff gets excited about Prato, or Severino, or Gordon's comeback, or Shobel's rise? I'm dangling both Castro AND Polanco at the deadline and moving thenm if I'm offered acceptable prospect talent.

 

[RpR]

1 minute ago, bird said:

If I'm GM, I pick up next year's option. The difference in cost between Polanco and whomever gets sacrificed (Farmer for THIS GM) is immaterial in the scheme of things.

Brooks Lee has been pushed upstream to AAA fast because my field staff believes he has almost no chance to be underwhelming when called up in June and plugged in...at 3rd base. Why there? Because THIS GM is moving BOTH Martin and Lewis to the OF. Kirilloff stays put, Julien gets a 1B glove in case but stays at 2B for now, with Polanco at 3B until he's "relegated" to an INF utility role. Kepler gets traded in the off-season for a couple of low minors prospects (we're gonna lose too many prospects to Rule V as it is, given the heightened awareness of the draft/development skills as a result of the Steer/CES success stories). I want high risk/high reward prospects (think Ariel Castro and Yasser Mercedes of the present and Yunior Severino of the past). So bye bye to Farmer, Gallo, and Taylor for sure, and Castro stays put...for the time being.

Buxton needs to sink or swim as a defender, so I throw him to the wolves out here in CF until a wheel comes off. He's not a DH, but hopefully he gets his body and head straight and stops looking like an A-baller at the plate. And if Correa performs like he has, he gets tons of bench time. THIS GM is done having a lineup full of rally killers. I'm hoping Wallner doesn't kill or create on defense too many  rallies as a starting RF.

Now...if my field staff gets excited about Prato, or Severino, or Gordon's comeback, or Shobel's rise? I'm dangling both Castro AND Polanco at the deadline and moving thenm if I'm offered acceptable prospect talent.

 

100 loss season, here we come!😆

[bird]

20 minutes ago, RpR said:

100 loss season, here we come!😆

You're prolly right. It'd be catastrophic to be without Gallo, Taylor, Farmer, and Kepler. And how could Lewis and Martin POSSIBLY match what Castro and Taylor have produced. Heck, that might be worse than being without Garlick, Celestino, and Contreras!

And wait til THIS GM tackles the pitching staff. We're talking 120 losses after that.

[Major League Ready]

2 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Got to say I don't understand the idea of turning positions over to unproven 24 (Severino) and 26 (Prato) old minor league players (ages at the start of next season) if they aren't given some time this year. I also don't see the Twins FO doing it either, I don't think they are going to let an above average league hitter go for nothing. (I am not against picking up the option and trading Polanco, I think mid market teams needs to get value from a player like this)

I can see the Twins maybe giving 1 prospect a starting position next year but no more. Who is that? Not sure

I would not have to go that way.  They could start Lewis at 3B and Lee/Severino/Prato get auditions.  Where and how they are used is figured out over the course of the season.  If Polanco is still here, in a bench role which is where he would be with Lewis at 3B, the ABs that could be used to audition young players won't be available.  Now, if Lewis becomes an OFer, that changes the equation for a short while but eventually we would have the same situation with Lee starting at 3B.  I would invest the dollars in pitching and the ABs in young players.

Hopefully, by June 1 Lee is the 3B and in that scenario I like the idea of some combination of Castro / Martin / Severino / Larnach / Gordon and Prato on the bench.

[Brandon]

Having the I ter ational class of 2009 reach 500 HRs as Twins is a nice marketing opportunity for the Twins.  As long as Kepler and Polanco are helping the Twins, they should be here. Though we do have nice hitting prospects on the way.  …. We will see.

[MABB1959]

Banking on Lewis being healthy for a whole season is also risky.  

[dex8425]

5 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Castro has been far more valuable than Polanco this season. Baseball Reference has Castro as the #1 Twins position player.

I agree that Polanco could effectively replace Solano but is that worth $10.5M?

It's actually Ryan Jeffers by quite a large margin. Yes, Polanco is absolutely worth more than his salary. Kepler is not really. Polanco definitely has trade value. Kepler doesn't. 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/teams/491/

[Loops]

I like Polanco. He has been good for the Twins. But induct him into the Twins Hall of Fame when he retires? Not sure about that comment.

[DJL44]

39 minutes ago, dex8425 said:

It's actually Ryan Jeffers by quite a large margin.

You're right. I looked at the photos and thought it was Brock Stewart

[mikelink45]

Time to move on.  The FO has to learn how to trade vets at their near peak value like Cleveland does with its SP.  We have the reinforcements, but we need BP, perhaps more SP, and a right handed OF.  If we can use our Vets to get them instead of prospects I prefer it. 

[RpR]

2 hours ago, bird said:

You're prolly right. It'd be catastrophic to be without Gallo, Taylor, Farmer, and Kepler. And how could Lewis and Martin POSSIBLY match what Castro and Taylor have produced. Heck, that might be worse than being without Garlick, Celestino, and Contreras!

And wait til THIS GM tackles the pitching staff. We're talking 120 losses after that.

With out Castro and Taylor's running and fielding the Twins would not be as far in front of Cleveland as they are.

Pie-in-the-Sky rookies more often than not turn out to be Moose Turd Pie.