The Paganaissance: What Should We Make of Pagan's Recent Hot Stretch?

[Lou Hennessy]

The Twins took their fair share of criticism when they decided to tender Emilio Pagan a contract over the offseason, and much of it looked warranted after a rocky first month. But they stood by the righty, and he rewarded them with a fantastic three-month stretch. But how much faith should we have in Pagan’s renaissance?

Image courtesy of Peter Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

When Emilio Pagan was acquired from the San Diego Padres mere hours before the start of the 2022 season, he was replacing the fan-favorite reliever that he was traded for. Taylor Rogers was a fixture in the back end of the Twins bullpen for parts of six seasons – but Pagan wasn’t able to match that production in his first year with the club. Of course, there were many other layers to the swap (the inclusion of Chris Paddack, questions surrounding Rogers’ injured finger, etc.), but the stark contrast in player popularity soured the deal for many fans.

Nevertheless, the Twins brought Pagan back for another campaign this year, and all hope seemed gone for good after a six-run drubbing in Boston on April 20th. Many believed that should have been his final game as a member of the Twins, and their frustration was relatively justified. That clunker brought his Twins career ERA to 4.82, with 12 home runs allowed, often in crucial points of tight games. 

Since that day, Pagan has gone through a renaissance - a Paganaissance, if you will. But how much faith should we be putting in the new Emilio? Are his results finally starting to match his raw talent? Or was Tuesday night’s slip-up against Seattle a sign that he’s still walking a tight rope? 

Before coughing up the lead to the Mariners in that brutal loss, Pagan had a stretch of three months where he was one of the most-reliable options in the Twins’ relief corps. From April 26th through July 23rd, he had a sterling 2.29 ERA with a 0.91 WHIP and a strong 25.2% strikeout rate. Opponents hit just .159 off of him in that span, and he gave up just three home runs across 35 1/3 innings pitched. He stranded 80% of runners in those three months, which is pivotal for a pitcher that has been slain by the long ball throughout his career. His Win Probability Added was a plus-0.22, which is uncharted territory for the polarizing reliever. 

He started looking more like the pitcher that the front office envisioned with rose-colored glasses, and less like the last resort in a fluid bullpen picture. 

But right on queue, just when Pagan’s stock had never been higher, the other shoe dropped as he gave up a game-tying blast to Julio Rodriguez in the eighth inning of Tuesday’s demoralizing loss to the Mariners. While only one of that inning’s four earned runs was charged to Pagan, he carried the heaviest weight of that loss, as he has many times over the last two seasons. After all that progress (and about 80% of this article being completed), that bomb brought on the traumatic echoes of Pagan’s hardest moments as a Twin.

So what should fans expect going forward? It’s not like the Twins have a plethora of lock-down relief options, but then again, the club has been burned multiple times after entrusting Pagan with high-leverage opportunities. The team and their pitcher are stuck in a never-ending cycle of building up a beautiful house of cards with strings of scoreless outings, only to be tumbled down with a gust of wind from an opponent’s home run in the least opportune moments imaginable. At the end of the day, those three months were fantastic and much-needed for the team and player alike. But still, it's hard to trust somebody who has a career-long reputation for dropping the ball at the worst moments.

It’s reasonable to expect two more months of solid production from Pagan, with a few slips mixed in along the way. For a Twins bullpen that seems to constantly be in flux, that’s going to be a tough pill to swallow when the other shoe drops. But until they get some reinforcements - either via trade or an unexpected internal candidate steps up - Pagan is going to get plenty of action in medium to high-leverage situations. Is the team going to get the same old Emilio that fumbles the bag like he did against the Mariners, or will they get the rock-solid set-up option that flourished in the Paganaissance?

What do you think? Does Pagan’s excellent three-month stretch change his reputation in your eyes, or did Tuesday prove he's still the same old Emilio? What are your expectations for him over the next two months? Let us know in the comment section below. 

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[farmerguychris]

Just like Kepler - one brief hot stretch does not eliminate 3+ years of below the line performance.

Maybe we can trade both of them while they're hot for more than they're worth.

[dberthia]

Let's pump the brakes on the Paganaissance. He's had a stretch of adequacy that may or may not be over, but is this a guy you'd really be comfortable with holding a lead in a playoff game?

[LA Vikes Fan]

SImply put, No. Pagan is not an 8th inning guy or a 7th inning guy. He is at best a decent middle reliever who can go 2 plus innings and who will give you 3-4 good performances followed by a clunker that will cost you a game. That guy is in most team's bullpens so I'm not upset that we still have him, especially since we don't have anyone else better. Still, we need another late inning reliever in a trade and the return of Thielbar and Stewart. Then the acquisition, Duran and Jax can handle the 8th and 9th innings, Florio, Balazovic and Stewart the 6th and 7th, Thielbar can be the fireman/late inning fillin, and Pagan can be traded or the long man. Moran stays until both Thielbar and Stewart come back, if they both do, and then either beats out Pagan or he goes back to AAA and is the injury replacement guy.

I vote we acquire Kyle Finnegan from the Nats or even Weems for that acquisition role. Wouldn't be adverse to Barlow, Bard, Stratton, or Cisneros (although I don't see KC or Det trading with us), or even our old friend Trevor May from Oakland as the guy we pick up.  May was awful early but has been better lately. 

[Brandon]

If he keeps this up do you think we resign him to a 2 year 8-10 million contract?  Will someone else pay more?  Does he deserve a third year guarantee in free age?

[Minny505]

1 hour ago, farmerguychris said:

Just like Kepler - one brief hot stretch does not eliminate 3+ years of below the line performance.

Maybe we can trade both of them while they're hot for more than they're worth.

So much like Kepler in other ways.

If Kepler is a platoon/4th OFer batting in the lower 3rd of a lineup, he's perfectly acceptable and likely a valuable part of a contending team.

Likewise, if Pagan is the 5th or 6th RP that rarely pitches later than the 7th inning of a slim lead/tied game, he's perfectly acceptable and likely a valuable part of a contending team.

The value is all in how they are used. They are perfectly serviceable role players, but you don't want to rely on them too often in high leverage situations or you will be disappointed.

[mikelink45]

No - lets wait.  When he came in after Moran got in a jam, he did what we have seen him do too many times - he gave up the HR.  I keep see SSS in various discussions and sometimes it seems like our articles jump on that just to spin discussion.

[TwinsDr2021]

Pagan has 0 saves, 2 holds and 3 blown saves.

[rusty boots]

2 hours ago, Brandon said:

If he keeps this up do you think we resign him to a 2 year 8-10 million contract?  Will someone else pay more?  Does he deserve a third year guarantee in free age?

810 million seems like a lot i might be willing to give him 8 or 10 but that would be where I draw the line

[tony&rodney]

Would San Diego be interested in reacquiring Pagan?

[Fire Dan Gladden]

I saw the title and couldn't help myself.  It is like driving past a car accident.  I mean I know this article is just trying to wring every last drop out of the Pagan discussion clickamania, but I just couldn't help myself...

[SpicyGarvSauce]

Nothing - he still stinks.

[gbg]

From his splits - his Hard Hit percentage stayed the same. His FB% actually increased. BB% down a bit, K rate up slightly but K/9 down a touch.

Ah - here it is. First half BABIP: .280. Second half BABIP: .056

Wow. I guess that answers the question. There is no Paganaissance that is anything but a rabbit's foot.

[IaBeanCounter]

1 hour ago, gbg said:

From his splits - his Hard Hit percentage stayed the same. His FB% actually increased. BB% down a bit, K rate up slightly but K/9 down a touch.

Ah - here it is. First half BABIP: .280. Second half BABIP: .056

Wow. I guess that answers the question. There is no Paganaissance that is anything but a rabbit's foot.

What is a good BABIP?  For the season Duran is at .286, Jax .272 and Pagan .246.  

[jkcarew]

24 minutes ago, IaBeanCounter said:

What is a good BABIP?  For the season Duran is at .286, Jax .272 and Pagan .246.  

Usually used as a gauge for batted ball luck.

League average is usually around 290…this year 293 (new shift rules haven’t done much). Anything under is considered ‘luckier’…over, ‘not so lucky’. The more innings you pitch, the more your number will trend toward the 290-ish number

Pagan’s was 320 last year, 246 this year. Only Moran and Balazovic have had better luck this season with in-the-park batted balls resulting in outs.

[PatPfund]

Pagan is what he is. Right now he deserves to be in the 'pen, because the Twins are weak enough there, Pagan has been decent (much better than Moran), and he isn't being pushed out by a surplus of talent. (The way Gallo and Kepler probably should be pushed off the roster in the first case and to the bench in the second by Wallner and Larnach; especially Wallner.)

I also watch a fair amount of Saints ball, and I really don't see anyone pushing for the majors enough to threaten Pagan anytime soon (unless they move a starter or two to bullpen work). I'm not happy about it, but I get that Pagan is likely here for the year.

[strumdatjag]

Accept reality with some caveats below. Currently,  Pagan is the best #3 option in this bullpen. 
I don’t expect any additional trades for relief pitchers.   Let’s see if the Twins try Maeda or Keuchel or another starter as the third guy (behind Duran and Jax).  Maybe Thielbar can return and assume the role of #3 guy.   Dread the thought, but what if there is an injury or reduction in effectiveness for Duran and Jax????

[LeatherAntenna]

11 hours ago, dberthia said:

Let's pump the brakes on the Paganaissance. He's had a stretch of adequacy that may or may not be over, but is this a guy you'd really be comfortable with holding a lead in a playoff game?

 

1 hour ago, PatPfund said:

Pagan is what he is. Right now he deserves to be in the 'pen, because the Twins are weak enough there, Pagan has been decent (much better than Moran), and he isn't being pushed out by a surplus of talent. (The way Gallo and Kepler probably should be pushed off the roster in the first case and to the bench in the second by Wallner and Larnach; especially Wallner.)

I also watch a fair amount of Saints ball, and I really don't see anyone pushing for the majors enough to threaten Pagan anytime soon (unless they move a starter or two to bullpen work). I'm not happy about it, but I get that Pagan is likely here for the year.

A playoff game?  Are we that confident now? I’m hoping but not at all certain in my mind.

[LeatherAntenna]

7 hours ago, rusty boots said:

810 million seems like a lot i might be willing to give him 8 or 10 but that would be where I draw the line

800,000?  Is that per run?

[LeatherAntenna]

7 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Pagan has 0 saves, 2 holds and 3 blown saves.

And his blown saves are very efficient, usually just a handful of pitches.

[Karbo]

He is what he is, a reliever that in a decent pen would slot in the 6-8 range. 8-10 mil? Not if it was my decision.

[JD-TWINS]

On 7/28/2023 at 12:54 PM, Brandon said:

If he keeps this up do you think we resign him to a 2 year 8-10 million contract?  Will someone else pay more?  Does he deserve a third year guarantee in free age?

Cannot re-sign him. If he gets a hold in a playoff game, maybe. Anything short of that and we move on.

[Nine of twelve]

On 7/28/2023 at 11:24 AM, Lou Hennessy said:

It’s reasonable to expect two more months of solid production from Pagan, with a few slips mixed in along the way.

 

No bullpen has 8 lock-down guys and this statement is true for many, many relievers throughout the major leagues. He's good enough to be on the roster, but I wish we could predict when he is going to give up a home run because when he does it seems like it happens at the worst possible moments.