Minor League Report (7/8): Tanner Schobel Is Not Done

[Matt Braun]

It's always a good day when multiple batters with three-hit games couldn't take home Hitter of the Day honors.

Image courtesy of Steven Bisig-USA TODAY Sports (Image is of David Festa)

TRANSACTIONS
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Futures Game
Buried somewhere deep beneath the streaming super highway, MLB’s yearly Futures Game played out, with the NL team handily beating the AL team 5-0. More important to us Twins fans: RHP David Festa pitched a scoreless inning with one hit and a strikeout of Milwaukee uber-prospect Jackson Chourio on three-straight sliders. He touched 97.6 MPH with his fastball.

Saints Sentinel
St. Paul 5, Iowa 2
Box Score
Brent Headrick: 2 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 4 K
HR: Anthony Prato (4), Chris Williams (16)
Multi-hit games: None

A breakout seventh inning led the Saints to victory on Saturday.

It wasn’t working. No matter the start, and no matter the strategy, Simeon Woods Richardson couldn’t get anyone out. The top prospect entered the weekend with a 7.27 ERA on the year at AAA—and had peripherals unable to offer him any comfort. The Saints offered a solution: Brent Headrick would start the game—acquiring as many outs as he could—allowing Woods Richardson to enter facing a Cubs lineup tuned into a left-hander.

It worked. Not only did Headrick crush his outing, Woods Richardson had one of his finest performances all year, punching out seven batters over five innings of work with a lone homer as his only blemish. This may be the blueprint needed for the talented youngster.

The bats, while not overwhelming, were well-coordinated, leading to five runs off of six hits—more than enough to best the Cubs. Austin Martin plated the first run with a double into the right-center gap, marking St. Paul’s only score until the third act.

Patience begat rewards, with an Anthony Prato moonshot finally breaking the stalemate.

And fruit continued to bear, turning a 3-1 advantage into a 5-1 lead after Chris Williams cracked a homer out to the right-center power alley.

The Cubs played feisty to end the game, scoring a second time to bring the game within three. With two runners on, Josh Winder snapped off a high curve—thought too high by the home plate ump. Williams, the catcher, disagreed. He quickly called for a challenge, and the robots agreed with his assessment, ending the game on a call overturned.

Of course, one could opine about the minors having a better strike/ball system than MLB, but that’s better saved for later.

The best Cubs prospect in Saturday’s game was Chase Strumpf. Ranked 23rd in the system by MLB.com, Strumpf struck out three times and committed an error. (Strumpf was the shortstop at JSerra High School which is why Royce Lewis played third base his first three years of varsity baseball.)

Wind Surge Wisdom
Wichita 4, Tulsa 3
Box Score
Travis Adams: 5 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 0 BB, 5 K
HR: Seth Gray (5), Aaron Sabato (5), Alerick Soularie (6)
Multi-hit games: DaShawn Keirsey Jr. (3-for-5, 2B)

The Wind Surge came back late to win on Saturday.

Travis Adams was fine—maybe not great—over his five innings of work, allowing three runs against a surprisingly disappointing Drillers lineup. The 23-year-old started the season poorly, but now has back-to-back five inning starts with one and three runs allowed respectively. 

His bullpen had his back as well, as Regi Grace and Alex Scherff combined to toss four scoreless frames, carrying Wichita to the finish line as their bats came alive to win it.

First it was Seth Gray—sudden and violent—blasting a ball over the centerfield wall to start the scoring, then Aaron Sabato shot one the other way to tie the game at two; Alerick Soularie’s skyscraper gave Wichita the lead for good.

DaShawn Keirsey Jr. collected three hits and stole his 28th base of the season.

The Drillers are led by Diego Cartaya, the Dodgers next big catcher in their efficient development system. He singled and walked in four trips to the plate.

Kernels Nuggets
Cedar Rapids 6, Quad Cities 8
Box Score
Cory Lewis: 3 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 3 K
HR: Tanner Schobel (14), Noah Miller (3)
Multi-hit games: Ben Ross (3-for-4, 2B, 3 R), Noah Miller (2-for-4, HR, R, 4 RBI), Noah Cardenas (2-for-5)

The Kernels scored four in the 1st, but couldn’t hold on in a thriller.

It was an ambush. Tanner Schobel blasted a fastball 420 feet away into centerfield, surging ahead to first place on the Midwest League homer leaderboard. A few batters later, Noah Miller became the one jogging safely around the bases—and his homer plated three runners, leading to a commanding 4-0 advantage.

Unfortunately, Cory Lewis wasn’t sharp. The typically tough righty mis-fired and battled, leading to an inflated pitch count as the River Bandits spit on obvious balls and waited out hittable strikes. He was out after three. 

Malik Barrington held down the fort for two frames, handing the game off to Alejandro Hidalgo. His Mr. Hyde appeared. A laborious sixth shifted favor towards the River Bandits; a two-run seventh ended the game for good.

While Cedar Rapids scored twice after their initial outburst, their bats couldn’t break through to save their lost lead, and the Kernels ended up falling with a bases-loaded groundout in the 9th.

Gavin Cross—Kansas City’s best prospect—singled once and plated two runs.

Mussel Matters
Wet playing conditions ended this game before it began, and the Mussels will play a double-header on Sunday.

Complex Chronicles
The FCL Twins did not play on Saturday.

Dominican Dailies
DSL Twins 10, DSL Rockies 11 (10 Innings)
Box Score
Miguel Cordero: 3 1/3 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 4 BB, 3 K
HR: Carlos Silva (1)
Multi-hit games: Dameury Pena (2-for-4, 2 R, RBI), Moises Lopez (3-for-4, 2B, 3B, R, 4 RBI), Carlos Silva (2-for-4, HR, 2B, R, 2 RBI)

The DSL Twins lost a classic, sloppy DSL game on Saturday.

These things happen when your starting pitcher is 16-years-old (born in 2006; hope that doesn’t ruin your Sunday). Miguel Cordero peppered the plate, making judicial use of his allotted targets to fire off four walks and five runs allowed. In his defense, his defense failed him for a few of those runs. Also in his defense, he’s two years away from being legally allowed to vote.

The DSL Twins offense was prolific, plating 10 runs off of eight hits and seven walks, leaving just five men on base. Dameury Pena, Moises Lopez, and Carlos Silva (not that one) were your stars: the trio combined for seven knocks—with four going for extra-bases. 

Lopez served as a complex hero, though, as he drove in four runs and gave a few back with a pair of errors.

TWINS DAILY PLAYERS OF THE DAY
Twins Daily Minor League Pitcher of the Day – Simeon Woods Richardson
Twins Daily Minor League Hitter of the Day – Carlos Silva

PROSPECT SUMMARY

Here’s a look at how the Twins Daily Top 20 Twins Prospects performed:
#3 - Emmanuel Rodriguez (Cedar Rapids) - 1-5
#4 - Edouard Julien (Minnesota) - 2-4, 2B, R
#7 - Simeon Woods Richardson (St. Paul) - 5 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 7 K
#8 - David Festa (Wichita) - 1 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K (Futures Game)
#9 - Matt Wallner (St. Paul) - 1-5, RBI
#11 - Austin Martin (St. Paul) - 1-5, 2B, RBI, K
#13 - Noah Miller (Cedar Rapids) - 2-4, HR, R, 4 RBI, K
#15 - Brent Headrick (St. Paul) - 2 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 4 K

SUNDAY’S PROBABLE STARTERS
St. Paul @ Iowa (1:08 PM) - RHP Louie Varland
Wichita @ Tulsa (1:05 PM) - LHP Aaron Rozek
Quad Cities @ Cedar Rapids (1:05 PM) - LHP Christian MacLeod
Fort Myers @ Tampa (10:00 AM) - RHP Jose Olivares
Fort Myers @ Tampa (30 minutes later)

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[FlyingFinn]

Good job by Festa in the futures game.

I haven't looked up the numbers but it sure seems like Soularie has been so much better this last month for the Wind Surge.

[twinstalker]

Twins missed on Brooks Lee, not that a number of teams wouldn't have taken him where they did.  But he dropped for a reason, and we're seeing the fallout.  I warned all spring that he was being overhyped and hadn't shown anything at AA, which is the separator.  What he's showing is that he'll most likely be a second division infielder or possible super-utility man (like we thought Julien might be).  He'll likely put up good to great numbers if he repeats the level, but I think we're getting the honest answer now.  I don't know that AAA is going to tell us much, given what a hitters' park CHS is.

There is still, though, hope that he might put up numbers in MLB close to what he's doing now.  He's walking at a good rate (11%), and he's striking out at about a 16% rate, also good.  I could see him repeating his slash line .265/.349/.423 in the majors, but I don't see potential star unless something major happens.

At any rate, it's disappointing thus far, as we'd hoped for a star hitter, and he's providing stats we'd accept for someone taken much later in the first round.

[Doctor Wu]

I love reading these minor league reports and appreciate the details. But all too often I have no idea which player is in the photo at the top of the page! 

[mikelink45]

Sabato gets his 6th HR.  He is only batting 225 - if power is his game he is about 10 HRs behind what he needs to be.  I see him as a failed first round pick.  

Sorry that SWR needs a starter to succeed, but he can take solace from Balazovic who had such a bad year and now is in the BP. 

[Karbo]

Had to do a double take when I saw Carlos Silva's name. I thought he would be awfully old to be pitching again, then I realized it was a hitter.

[Omgbenji]

35 minutes ago, Doctor Wu said:

I love reading these minor league reports and appreciate the details. But all too often I have no idea which player is in the photo at the top of the page! 

I’ve asked before, but the writers that do it, do it, and the ones who don’t, don’t. But totally agree. It’s be nice if they were all on the same page with it. 

[Omgbenji]

It’s so frustrating that Milwaukee, who’s been pretty good for a number of years, has an Uber prospect, the Dodgers always have exciting guys, and the Twins…..we just have our meh prospects. Why can’t we ever strike gold and have an awesome guy in our system?

[Seth Stohs]

6 hours ago, twinstalker said:

Twins missed on Brooks Lee, not that a number of teams wouldn't have taken him where they did.  But he dropped for a reason, and we're seeing the fallout.  I warned all spring that he was being overhyped and hadn't shown anything at AA, which is the separator.  What he's showing is that he'll most likely be a second division infielder or possible super-utility man (like we thought Julien might be).  He'll likely put up good to great numbers if he repeats the level, but I think we're getting the honest answer now.  I don't know that AAA is going to tell us much, given what a hitters' park CHS is.

There is still, though, hope that he might put up numbers in MLB close to what he's doing now.  He's walking at a good rate (11%), and he's striking out at about a 16% rate, also good.  I could see him repeating his slash line .265/.349/.423 in the majors, but I don't see potential star unless something major happens.

At any rate, it's disappointing thus far, as we'd hoped for a star hitter, and he's providing stats we'd accept for someone taken much later in the first round.

Curious what you thought Lee would be hitting at AA? He leads the league in doubles. He's playing good defense. He's a good eye at the plate. If he was hitting .280/.364/.438 (.802), would he still be considered failure in your eyes? If he puts up those numbers in the big leagues that'd be fantastic. And that's 15 points of batting average, which is a few bloopers falling in. 

[Seth Stohs]

58 minutes ago, Omgbenji said:

It’s so frustrating that Milwaukee, who’s been pretty good for a number of years, has an Uber prospect, the Dodgers always have exciting guys, and the Twins…..we just have our meh prospects. Why can’t we ever strike gold and have an awesome guy in our system?

How is this measured? Having a Top 10 prospect? Because Lewis and Kirilloff have been Top 10 global prospects in the past. Top 100 types? Jeffers, Larnach, Julien, Rodriguez, Miranda, Ryan, Balazovic were all Top 100 prospects at some point. 

The Twins minor-league system likely ranks in the bottom 3rd of organizations right now. It's definitely not a top system right now. It remains a deep organization, especially as it relates to pitching (which is so weird as a Twins fan). Not Top 100 guys, but definitely guys who can help in the big leagues with continued development. 

[terrydactyls]

1 hour ago, Doctor Wu said:

I love reading these minor league reports and appreciate the details. But all too often I have no idea which player is in the photo at the top of the page! 

Exactly.  I've been asking for the last two years for Twins Daily to add names.  At least this time it was obvious because Festa was the only Twins prospect in the Futures game.

[weitz41]

6 hours ago, twinstalker said:

Twins missed on Brooks Lee, not that a number of teams wouldn't have taken him where they did.  But he dropped for a reason, and we're seeing the fallout.  I warned all spring that he was being overhyped and hadn't shown anything at AA, which is the separator.  What he's showing is that he'll most likely be a second division infielder or possible super-utility man (like we thought Julien might be).  He'll likely put up good to great numbers if he repeats the level, but I think we're getting the honest answer now.  I don't know that AAA is going to tell us much, given what a hitters' park CHS is.

There is still, though, hope that he might put up numbers in MLB close to what he's doing now.  He's walking at a good rate (11%), and he's striking out at about a 16% rate, also good.  I could see him repeating his slash line .265/.349/.423 in the majors, but I don't see potential star unless something major happens.

At any rate, it's disappointing thus far, as we'd hoped for a star hitter, and he's providing stats we'd accept for someone taken much later in the first round.

He hasn't been on the team for a year yet. Might be a little quick to pass judgement. Plus look at the guys drafted just before or after. He's player better then all of them except Neto.

1 hour ago, mikelink45 said:

Sabato gets his 6th HR.  He is only batting 225 - if power is his game he is about 10 HRs behind what he needs to be.  I see him as a failed first round pick.  

Sorry that SWR needs a starter to succeed, but he can take solace from Balazovic who had such a bad year and now is in the BP. 

Sabato does have an .822 OPS with just 6 home runs. I think he's actually playing much better of late, and his fielding is .991. I'm probably jinxing him by saying good things about him, but I think he is improving over what we saw before this season.

[jmlease1]

7 hours ago, twinstalker said:

Twins missed on Brooks Lee, not that a number of teams wouldn't have taken him where they did.  But he dropped for a reason, and we're seeing the fallout.  I warned all spring that he was being overhyped and hadn't shown anything at AA, which is the separator.  What he's showing is that he'll most likely be a second division infielder or possible super-utility man (like we thought Julien might be).  He'll likely put up good to great numbers if he repeats the level, but I think we're getting the honest answer now.  I don't know that AAA is going to tell us much, given what a hitters' park CHS is.

There is still, though, hope that he might put up numbers in MLB close to what he's doing now.  He's walking at a good rate (11%), and he's striking out at about a 16% rate, also good.  I could see him repeating his slash line .265/.349/.423 in the majors, but I don't see potential star unless something major happens.

At any rate, it's disappointing thus far, as we'd hoped for a star hitter, and he's providing stats we'd accept for someone taken much later in the first round.

I think it's kind of amazing that midway through Brooks Lee's first full season in professional baseball you've already decided the Twins blew it and his ceiling is only as a backup infielder/utility guy. He's the youngest player on the Wichita roster, he's barely played a hundred games in pro ball, and he's having a solid season in AA after hardly spending any time in A-ball. Maybe we could give him at least one full season in AA before deciding he won't be a star hitter.

[Matt Braun]

3 hours ago, Doctor Wu said:

I love reading these minor league reports and appreciate the details. But all too often I have no idea which player is in the photo at the top of the page! 

Added. I appreciate hearing feedback, and I'll add player names in the future!

[Matt Braun]

11 hours ago, FlyingFinn said:

Good job by Festa in the futures game.

I haven't looked up the numbers but it sure seems like Soularie has been so much better this last month for the Wind Surge.

He's slashing .323/.447/.581 since the start of June. That's pretty damn good, alright. 

[Major League Ready]

2 hours ago, weitz41 said:

He hasn't been on the team for a year yet. Might be a little quick to pass judgement. Plus look at the guys drafted just before or after. He's player better then all of them except Neto.

Sabato does have an .822 OPS with just 6 home runs. I think he's actually playing much better of late, and his fielding is .991. I'm probably jinxing him by saying good things about him, but I think he is improving over what we saw before this season.

He has been quite good the last month.  Since 6/6 his stat line is .265/.396/.578 with an OPS of .974.  Wouldn't that be something if he turned into a decent player?

[Mike Sixel]

9 hours ago, twinstalker said:

Twins missed on Brooks Lee, not that a number of teams wouldn't have taken him where they did.  But he dropped for a reason, and we're seeing the fallout.  I warned all spring that he was being overhyped and hadn't shown anything at AA, which is the separator.  What he's showing is that he'll most likely be a second division infielder or possible super-utility man (like we thought Julien might be).  He'll likely put up good to great numbers if he repeats the level, but I think we're getting the honest answer now.  I don't know that AAA is going to tell us much, given what a hitters' park CHS is.

There is still, though, hope that he might put up numbers in MLB close to what he's doing now.  He's walking at a good rate (11%), and he's striking out at about a 16% rate, also good.  I could see him repeating his slash line .265/.349/.423 in the majors, but I don't see potential star unless something major happens.

At any rate, it's disappointing thus far, as we'd hoped for a star hitter, and he's providing stats we'd accept for someone taken much later in the first round.

every prospect evaluator disagrees with you completely. Every. Single. One. 

[Mike Sixel]

3 hours ago, Seth Stohs said:

How is this measured? Having a Top 10 prospect? Because Lewis and Kirilloff have been Top 10 global prospects in the past. Top 100 types? Jeffers, Larnach, Julien, Rodriguez, Miranda, Ryan, Balazovic were all Top 100 prospects at some point. 

The Twins minor-league system likely ranks in the bottom 3rd of organizations right now. It's definitely not a top system right now. It remains a deep organization, especially as it relates to pitching (which is so weird as a Twins fan). Not Top 100 guys, but definitely guys who can help in the big leagues with continued development. 

Fangraphs has them 13th overall.....

[DFlow]

12 hours ago, twinstalker said:

Twins missed on Brooks Lee, not that a number of teams wouldn't have taken him where they did.  But he dropped for a reason, and we're seeing the fallout.  I warned all spring that he was being overhyped and hadn't shown anything at AA, which is the separator.  What he's showing is that he'll most likely be a second division infielder or possible super-utility man (like we thought Julien might be).  He'll likely put up good to great numbers if he repeats the level, but I think we're getting the honest answer now.  I don't know that AAA is going to tell us much, given what a hitters' park CHS is.

There is still, though, hope that he might put up numbers in MLB close to what he's doing now.  He's walking at a good rate (11%), and he's striking out at about a 16% rate, also good.  I could see him repeating his slash line .265/.349/.423 in the majors, but I don't see potential star unless something major happens.

At any rate, it's disappointing thus far, as we'd hoped for a star hitter, and he's providing stats we'd accept for someone taken much later in the first round.

Holy overreaction. Some people need to relax. He’s literally one year to the day of being drafted and has met pretty much everyone except for your expectation. 
 

To expect a star is also outside the scope of what most would consider Lee (even when drafting him). He was always projected as a quality regular with all star upside (that’s a 3-4 WAR guy). 
 

He’s 22 and should debut at 23. Everything you could have asked for.

[Brandon]

On 7/8/2023 at 11:37 PM, twinstalker said:

Twins missed on Brooks Lee, not that a number of teams wouldn't have taken him where they did.  But he dropped for a reason, and we're seeing the fallout.  I warned all spring that he was being overhyped and hadn't shown anything at AA, which is the separator.  What he's showing is that he'll most likely be a second division infielder or possible super-utility man (like we thought Julien might be).  He'll likely put up good to great numbers if he repeats the level, but I think we're getting the honest answer now.  I don't know that AAA is going to tell us much, given what a hitters' park CHS is.

There is still, though, hope that he might put up numbers in MLB close to what he's doing now.  He's walking at a good rate (11%), and he's striking out at about a 16% rate, also good.  I could see him repeating his slash line .265/.349/.423 in the majors, but I don't see potential star unless something major happens.

At any rate, it's disappointing thus far, as we'd hoped for a star hitter, and he's providing stats we'd accept for someone taken much later in the first round.

Isn’t Lee 2.5 years younger than the average player at AA?  Isn’t he hitting an insane number of doubles that usually project to become HR power as he matures?  I still feel pretty confident he will be a solid big leaguer. Probably a.270 ave with 20-25 HR power and 50-70 walks.  That should help our team.

[jmlease1]

19 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

He has been quite good the last month.  Since 6/6 his stat line is .265/.396/.578 with an OPS of .974.  Wouldn't that be something if he turned into a decent player?

It would be great. I definitely had him in "bust" category going into this season, but maybe he's salvaging it.

[TwinsDr2021]

1 hour ago, jmlease1 said:

It would be great. I definitely had him in "bust" category going into this season, but maybe he's salvaging it.

He just turned 24 and is playing in AA, so decent is about the best we can hope for. in 21 he played in A and A+, in 22 A+ and AA, this year AA, so on this pace he ends up in AAA this year, starts in AAA next year and ends the season at the Twins at age 25.

Of course he has K'd 42% of the time so far this year, which basically translates into a career minor league player.

[TwinsDr2021]

On 7/9/2023 at 8:12 AM, Seth Stohs said:

How is this measured? Having a Top 10 prospect? Because Lewis and Kirilloff have been Top 10 global prospects in the past. Top 100 types? Jeffers, Larnach, Julien, Rodriguez, Miranda, Ryan, Balazovic were all Top 100 prospects at some point. 

The Twins minor-league system likely ranks in the bottom 3rd of organizations right now. It's definitely not a top system right now. It remains a deep organization, especially as it relates to pitching (which is so weird as a Twins fan). Not Top 100 guys, but definitely guys who can help in the big leagues with continued development. 

I think what he is saying is how come the Twins don't have that young superstar player that debuts really young and is really good. (like a Buxton (21), Sano (22), Berrios(22)).

It seems like with this front office guys that are young and good are still way down the system and seemingly still years away.

[twinsfan02]

On 7/9/2023 at 11:16 AM, Major League Ready said:

He has been quite good the last month.  Since 6/6 his stat line is .265/.396/.578 with an OPS of .974.  Wouldn't that be something if he turned into a decent player?

.265 is not good for an 8th overall pick.