Twins Gamble on Replacing Luis Arraez Is Proving Destructive

[USAFChief]

2 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Arraez ONLY hits singles, and he'd be batting at the top of the order. This team continues to demonstrate a historically inept inability to drive runners in to score. Even if he was hitting in the high .300's, he doesn't get extra base hits or steal bases

Arraez has 20 XBHs and is SLG .485, higher than every Twin not named Matt Wallner.

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, USAFChief said:

Arraez has 20 XBHs and is SLG .485, higher than every Twin not named Matt Wallner.

I'm not sure that's great Arraez hitting, or OMG MY EYES hitting by the Twins. Sigh. They suck so badly. So. Very,. Badly.

[pierre75275]

1 hour ago, Ryan Tamte said:

He was 1st in the national league in wRC+, OBP, BA, and he is leading all twins players in hits, doubles, RBIs, runs, SLG, and OPS. So I have some confusion on this argument that he wouldn't generate ANY efficient offense and move the needle. 

 

Also, we could have made some free agency moves or put together a different trade package that would keep Arraez and get a solid rotation guy. We didn't value him. Twins fans have some cognitive dissonance when it comes to Luis Arraez and his value.

The point I was making is there would be a dropoff from whoever would be the starter in place of Lopez, as well as added stress on the bullpen, unless they found a better workhorse.

In addition, this lineup strikes out a tremendous amount and when we do get guys on base, we can't score. Unless someone hits it over the fence. If guys are on base, and Arraez came up then yes, that would be different. But this team is not an on base juggernaut, so if someone is base, it's pry Arraez. Unfortunately this team lacks the ability to manufacture runs and Arraez can't do it by himself. So between the worse pitching and how terrible our offense is at scoring runs, I feel that the benefit of Arraez on offense vs whoever would replace Lopez plus how terrible our offense is, that the over all team benefit or win total wouldn't be much more than it is now 

Also, the problem is with guys like Kepler, Gallo, Vasquez, Correa and Buxton not producing. Arraez doesn't take atbats from any of those unless it's Gallo. Arraez would take at bats from Castro, Julien, and Kiriloff who I don't think are the problem on offense.

If you want to make the argument that if we had Arraez then Buxton would be on the DL and that would make the team better, I wouldn't argue that.

Welcome to TD!

[Larry Janisewski]

4 hours ago, Brian Kingfield said:

As painful as it is to imagine how Arraez could be helping this offense right now, it’s easier for me to imagine whatever sickness ails this offense spreading to Arraez as well. There could be a parallel universe where he stays with the Twins and hits a dry spell in 2023.

As pathetic as Twins hitting has been their hitting coach would have probably has Arraez hitting in the .250 range by now.

[stringer bell]

Maybe this is nit-picking, but I would dispute the word "destructive". The Twins subtracted an All-Star level hitter and added an above average starting pitcher. Both players have injury histories. The two positions that Arraez would have played have been filled by Polanco/Kirilloff/Julien, who have been among the better hitters on the team (certainly not on the level of Arraez). 

I don't think the trade "destroyed" anything and still could wind up to be a positive. The results thus far have certainly benefited the Marlins, but the season is only half over. 

[dxpavelka]

2 hours ago, Woof Bronzer said:

How good were the Marlins last year with Lopez?

How good were the Twins last year with Arraez?  Or the year before?

 

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, USAFChief said:

Arraez has 20 XBHs and is SLG .485, higher than every Twin not named Matt Wallner.

And three HR, he needs help creating runs. He'd still be standing on third when the inning ended more often than not.

I mean, no doubt he'd be helpful, but he'd be mostly adding to the times everyone turns off the TV because they leave runners stranded. I don't think he'd be increasing the win percentage by as much as people think.

[purplesoldier4u]

These are some very basic stats; but in 82 games (each), the Twins have scored 9 more runs and have walked 43 more times than the Marlins. Yes, the Twins have stuck out 173 more times, and the Twins have hit 27 more HR's and 92 less total hits. As far as (again, very basic) pitching numbers go, the Twins are better, though not appreciatively better, than the Marlins.

From what it looks like, the teams should be fairly comparable, but Miami is perceived to be much better, and they are 8 games better, but that should not be the case. Would one hitter, albeit an exceptionally good one, flip the script that significantly?

To be honest, there are only a few really good teams, a few really bad teams, and the Twins are in the mediocre group ... with 20 other teams. I expected 85 wins and hoped for 95+ and so far, they should be somewhere between those two numbers, I hope.

[OvertheHill]

3 hours ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

I agreed with the trade, but I think most of this discussion about us losing the trade is centered around Arreaz doing so well this year and the Twins doing so poorly this year with all the strikeouts.  Give this time and it will probably even out.  Tempers are raw at this point.

I'm sort of with you on this, realizing that there are strong opinions to the contrary. I loved watching Arreaz play the game I learned to play, remembering how Rod Carew played. I did however note that the team was having a hard time projecting him as a 2nd or 3rd baseman, and his knees were already an ominous sign. Given the frustrations with the starting rotation, I get the "sell high" thinking that played into the trade. I'd still like him to be here, but I got the logic. Time will tell how long Arreaz will be a top-of-the-order asset in this launch angle/exit velocity obsessed era.

[Dave Borton]

6 hours ago, HoskenPowell said:

Ted Williams impression????   Ted could and DID hit for power.  Arraez could play for 30 years and he will end up 400 hr's behind Ted. . .It's a long season and odds are he slows way down in the dog days of summer with his balky knees.

Couple of thoughts.

• We both know the passing reference to TWms was about the last hitter to bat .400. Nothing more.
• Two different eras. No one was throwing 100+ to Williams. Advantage then came with a higher mound rather than present speed off lower mound.
• Agree on the long season and his knees. I am rooting for him.

[wsnydes]

Arraez isn't the offensive savior a lot of people around here want him to be.  Sure, you can rattle off individual hitting stats all you want, but I haven't seen anyone show me that he's creating more runs.  Someone else has to drive him in.  This team has a major issue with driving runners in, so I fail to see how his presence moves the needle any meaningful amount.  He'd most likely just end up another tally in the LOB column like every other base runner they get on.  

I liked Arraez, but I just don't buy that he's the fix all everyone wants him to be.  This offense is far more flawed than one guy or one high OBP guy.  They need to fix far more than that.  They aren't just one hitter away from being legit.

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, wsnydes said:

 

I liked Arraez, but I just don't buy that he's the fix all everyone wants him to be.  This offense is far more flawed than one guy or one high OBP guy.  They need to fix far more than that.  They aren't just one hitter away from being legit.

Completely agree. I’m not trying to dis Arraez, but this team is missing all around good hitters. They need to START with a Jose Rameriz, Mookie Betts or Paul Goldschmidt type.
 

[wsnydes]

8 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Completely agree. I’m not trying to dis Arraez, but this team is missing all around good hitters. They need to START with a Jose Rameriz, Mookie Betts or Paul Goldschmidt type.
 

Exactly.  I'm not trying to dis Arraez either.  I respect his bat and he's fun to watch, but he's not the only thing this lineup needs.  He's one of several pieces needed.

[tony&rodney]

8 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

So MUCH traces back to trading away Berrios.  Tyler Mahle trade was made because we needed to plug the hole left when we traded Berrios.  Didn't work out which precipitated the Arraez trade.  Can probably factor the Sonny Gray trade in this mess too.  Have never replaced Rosario either.  I hate to keep harping on these two moves (actually, no I don't because SO much of the mess from the last two plus seasons traces back to them) but all the discussion in the world of the current state of affairs gets you nowhere if we ignore these two moves.

 

 

This is actually true. Life is like that: connections, where one event can influence or precipitate another event. Opportunity is always right in front of us and the correct or lucky choice creates fortune while the decision which seems so smart craters all too quickly. Accidents happen. The second guessing and interminable rehashing of why (coulda, woulda shoulda) only creates a sour taste. The Twins can still turn the corner.

[Blyleven2011]

8 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Ok, so we aren't talking about Contreras, Lamarre and Stevenson, but I wasn't the one (and neither were you) that said Kepler and Larnach or Wallner could have gotten Lopez.

It was that trouble make Blyleven2011  that suggested maybe possible that we could have offered someone else like Kepler,  Larnach  , Julien  and wallner instead of Arraez  ...

Been  interesting following you and Sixel on this summary  ...

Happy fourth of July  ...

[dxpavelka]

30 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

This is actually true. Life is like that: connections, where one event can influence or precipitate another event. Opportunity is always right in front of us and the correct or lucky choice creates fortune while the decision which seems so smart craters all too quickly. Accidents happen. The second guessing and interminable rehashing of why (coulda, woulda shoulda) only creates a sour taste. The Twins can still turn the corner.

Yeah, cuz MY second guessing and rehashing is what's creating the sour taste. 

[Blyleven2011]

12 hours ago, Mark G said:

Again, I can't prove a negative, so all I can do is speculate, which is pointless, but fun. 🤭

It all boils down, to me at least, age vs the combination of cost and team control.  LA is in his arbitration years, with the next 2 being his last before free agency.  And they will be expensive years, as he is already at the 6 mil point and that will rise.  He is also 26, with his nagging calling card supposedly troublesome knees.  Now Miami has never been a team to explode its payroll, so the combination of all of the above may have been a slow down if we had put together the right package of players either pretty much major league ready and/or pretty close to being ready.  Cheap, more years of team control, and more players total may have moved the needle.  Age alone would not have killed a deal with a team heavy in pitching and low on bats.  Again, more speculation on my part, but I think we chose to move LA because he had the most value at that moment, and we had no place to put both him and the infielders coming up through the system.  And with the financial commitments we were making to CC and BB we might have thought the expense that was coming down the pike with LA might not be doable to keep all 3.  I still believe that cost is why we let Urshella walk away when he was still a very skilled player, and the hope that Miranda was ready to take his place; Miranda, who was much cheaper and had team control.  Keeping in mind, also, that the trade for Lopez only became worth it when we extended him.  At a cost, to be sure.  So money, years of team control, the number of players and the positions they play, all may have played a role in a variety of trade scenarios between the two clubs.  I, personally, wish we had kept LA, but the FO stopped taking my calls some time back, so they never got the message.  Oh well, their loss.  😉

I couldn't get the ticket office to take my calls  , and they call this a business  ...

[Mark G]

13 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

I don't disagree with really anything you said, but none of that has really has much to do with what the Marlins wanted, unless you are saying it was the Twins that pushed to trade LA and not that Miami was requiring him. IMO it was the Marlins that wanted him and the Twins saying the only way we do it is give us Salas. And if the Twins FO was pushing AL over unproven mid 20's prospect, well more reason to fire them.

Because if I ran the Marlins and the Twins said to me you can have any 3 of the following 4 Larnach, Kepler, Wallner or Julien for Lopez, I would laugh at the Twins and say I am not taking your garbage for a young solid starting pitcher. Why would I (being the Marlin FO) want to clog my 40 man with these guys, I mean I would have some interest in Julien, but he would have to be added to ERod or Lee, something not on the 40 right now and to be honest the Marlins are the ones that added a top 100 prospect to get Arreaz.

To quote a good post "I don't disagree with really anything you said." 😉

I am just speculating as to what it would have taken to complete the trade with Miami without having to part with LA; if that would have even been possible.  Was it really LA or bust?  Or was there another door that might have been opened?  Again, I will never know, but it does make me wonder.

On the other hand, you may be spot on and there was never really a door number 2 or door number 3.

[mnfireman]

Finally, a thread about the Arraez trade. I didn't think anybody noticed he wasn't with the team anymore.

[Brandon]

Solano has a .370 OBP while Arreaz had a .375 OBP for us last season.  I think Solano has done a heck of a job replacing Arreaz bat from last year to this year and he costa less too.  

Pablo Lopez is 3rd in the American League in Strikeouts and is on pace to throw around 200 innings this year and he signed a 4 year extension.  This trade is a win win for all involved.  
 

Why are posters bringing up the performance of others or the offense as a whole in their logic.  It doesn’t work when you do a proper evaluation of what we got vs what we gave up.  
 

Saying the Marlins got more overall value is fine but arguable.  We have a solid rotation heading into next season after going into this one with 3 free agents. 
Lopez

Ryan

Ober

Varland

Paddack

while we can definitely use 1 more starter, we can atleast run this rotation out next year and be competitive with it.  
On offense Killeroff was going to be the 1B when healthy so where would you play Arraez?  I like Arraez but he was going to get squeezed here.  

[TNtwins85]

Love the article! With that being said this horse is beat to death dang near. Let’s see what this looks like in a few years shall we. The Twins have always been in search of pitching. I don’t see this as being a problem of trading Arraez for Lopez. The writing was on the wall. Arraez has bad knees, had no position and I think the trade was more trying to find value in a guy at the right time to obtain a guy who stabilized a position that was our downfall for so many years. What did everyone here see from Arraez in 2-3 years? A guy who’s knees probably relegated him to DH? Position inflexibility? A guy who logjams the best position to “try out”  these hitting prospects we have coming through (Lewis at the time, Julien, Lee)? I remember the clamoring going on here and now we have the hangover from what we all wanted because Arraez is doing better in this one season since what we wanted to happen. We all saw this coming. All I’m saying is we traded from a position of strength and got something we needed. SP stabilization. Let’s just see how it plays out in year 2-?. 

[Twins33]

I’m late to this post, but my opinion is the Twins need 3-4 Arraez’ in order to make a difference with this offense. Would only one help? Sure, but it wouldn’t make that big of an impact. Arraez would get on base and then be left there because the next three guys would K or GIDP….that’s why they’d need way more than just one Arraez. 

I like Lopez, I wish he’d stop with the Radke inning, but I’ve been happy with him so far…even though he absolutely could be better. I’m with @Mike Sixel on this. I’d rather have Lopez. Because Lopez means we didn’t need another Bundy or anyone like him. I’m tired of going after guys like Bundy. I never want to see one of those types of pitchers again.

I’m also not convinced that Varland or someone else comes up and does well. It’s a small sample size, so I’m not giving up on him yet, but he just hasn’t impressed me. He strikes out guys in the minors and then when he gets up to the majors, that drops pretty significantly. Is that a sign that he’s getting K’s down there that he will never get while being up? Maybe, didn’t do the research. I hope that’s not the case.

I can’t think of one SP in the minors I would take over Lopez. Not Varland, not Festa, not Headrick, not SWR. And I’ve already said I don’t want any Bundy’s…

As frustrating as this offense is, and it is insanely frustrating, I’ve very much enjoyed (for the most part) the starting pitching we’ve seen so far. I would do this trade again, as much as I like Arraez.

[Hubie29]

Just take a look at that starting batting order for tonight's opener against Kansas City.  Let it sink in, batter by batter.  All you can say is WOW.

[Hubie29]

3 hours ago, Twins33 said:

I’m late to this post, but my opinion is the Twins need 3-4 Arraez’ in order to make a difference with this offense. Would only one help? Sure, but it wouldn’t make that big of an impact. Arraez would get on base and then be left there because the next three guys would K or GIDP….that’s why they’d need way more than just one Arraez. 

I like Lopez, I wish he’d stop with the Radke inning, but I’ve been happy with him so far…even though he absolutely could be better. I’m with @Mike Sixel on this. I’d rather have Lopez. Because Lopez means we didn’t need another Bundy or anyone like him. I’m tired of going after guys like Bundy. I never want to see one of those types of pitchers again.

I’m also not convinced that Varland or someone else comes up and does well. It’s a small sample size, so I’m not giving up on him yet, but he just hasn’t impressed me. He strikes out guys in the minors and then when he gets up to the majors, that drops pretty significantly. Is that a sign that he’s getting K’s down there that he will never get while being up? Maybe, didn’t do the research. I hope that’s not the case.

I can’t think of one SP in the minors I would take over Lopez. Not Varland, not Festa, not Headrick, not SWR. And I’ve already said I don’t want any Bundy’s…

As frustrating as this offense is, and it is insanely frustrating, I’ve very much enjoyed (for the most part) the starting pitching we’ve seen so far. I would do this trade again, as much as I like Arraez.

I agree with everything.  It's the lack of production by "everyone" in the lineup, not the fact we are missing Arraez that this offense is horrible.