2nd Annual Dual Mock Draft

[Jeremy Nygaard]

The latest mock featured here is a dual mock draft done by Jamie Cameron and me. We alternated back and forth for the Top 39 selections in the upcoming draft. 

Image courtesy of Grace Hollars/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK. (Max Clark pictured)

Our inaugural attempt was met with minimal success. We didn't strike out, though; you can check it out for yourself here. Additionally, you'll notice an uptick in draft coverage beginning Monday with potential draftees' profiles.

1. Pirates (JN) - Dylan Crews, OF, LSU

Crews is simply too good to consider playing money games with any other prospect. Slam-dunk, open-and-shut. Crews to the Pirates and straight to the Top 10 prospects in all of baseball.

2. Nationals (JC) - Paul Skenes, RHP, LSU

Skenes is the best pitching prospect since Stephen Strasburg. He’s had a historical season and represents an incredibly rare opportunity to draft an ace. Mike Rizzo likely won’t pass up the chance to draft a generational pitching talent.

3. Tigers (JN) - Wyatt Langford, OF, Florida

If it wasn’t for the giant shadow that Crews casts, Langford would have a great shot to hear his name called first overall. A boon for the Tigers. Langford will immediately be their #1 prospect.

4. Rangers (JC) - Walker Jenkins, OF, South Brunswick HS, NC

The Rangers, who don’t have a ton of financial flexibility coming into this draft, have been all over Jenkins this spring. Jenkins and Clark form an impressive prep tandem at the top of this class. It’s simply a matter of what your preferred profile is.

5. Twins (JN) - Max Clark, OF, Franklin HS, IN

All indications suggest the Twins aren’t going to simply take whoever remains from the “top 5,” but Clark is the top prospect available and, aside from overthinking it, should be a relatively easy choice for the Twins.

6. Athletics (JC) - Kyle Teel, C, Virginia

The Athletics are surely hoping one of the consensus top-five drops to them at six. That’s not what happens in this scenario, so they target someone from the next group of college bats. Teel showed development in all aspects of his game this spring. A left-handed hitting catcher with a great offensive profile is hard to find.

7. Reds (JN) - Rhett Lowder, RHP, Wake Forest

After going pitch-for-pitch with Paul Skenes, Lowder has elevated his profile enough to the point where he seems like the definite second college pitcher off the board and a Top 10 pick. 

8. Royals (JC) - Arjen Nimmala, SS, Strawberry Crest HS, FL

The Royals are miles away from competing and have shown a propensity to the highly productive prep shortstop demographic in the past. Nimmala fits the dual profile of ‘incredible tools with a high ceiling’. The Royals have time to let him develop.

9. Rockies (JN) - Hurston Waldrep, RHP, Florida

The Rockies went the college pitching route last year when it didn’t seem like the obvious move. Fortunately, even after seeing two college pitchers come off the board early, they still have a choice between Waldrep and Dollander. 

10. Marlins (JC) - Chase Davis, OF, Arizona

I think Davis will be this year’s Kumar Rocker. The Marlins have a stable of excellent young starting pitching talent but have struggled to develop bats. Davis is one of the best upside plays in the draft, with underlying numbers that rival Crews and Langford.

11. Angels (JN) - Matt Shaw, SS, Maryland

After hitting on Zach Neto last year, the Angels are focused on college hitters. Enrique Bradfield is another name to consider, but Shaw can be a quick-moving hitter who become Neto’s double-play partner in the near future.

12. Diamondbacks (JC) - Aidan Miller, 3B, Mitchell HS, FL

Miller has been ‘out of sight out of mind’ a little this spring due to injury, but he’s one of the most physical, highest-upside preps in the class. An injury-free Miller would easily have been a top-ten pick in this loaded draft class.

13. Cubs (JN) - Colin Houck, SS, Parkview HS, FL

Would be a natural stopping point for Dollander’s fall or a place to consider Noble Meyer. But all indications are that the Cubs are focused on a hitter. Shaw and Miller may both be higher on their board, but Houck is an excellent consolation prize.

14. Red Sox (JC) - Chase Dollander, RHP, Tennessee

The slide stops here. It’s hard to predict where Dollander will end up after an uneven 2023, but the middle of the first feels like the floor. He’s shown front-of-the-rotation potential and lots of the buzz on his 2023 season has been that his issues are mechanical. This pick could end up a steal.

15. White Sox (JN) - Enrique Bradfield, OF, Vanderbilt

Bradfield hasn’t been linked to the White Sox much, but the value of an 80-grade runner and defender is too much to pass up at this point in the first round.

16. Giants (JC) - Tommy Troy, 2B, Stanford

Troy is the eighth overall player on the Consensus Board, so this is both a value play and a logical fit. The Giants have been linked to college bats all spring, and Troy has a solid all-around profile and a high floor.

17. Orioles (JN) - Bryce Eldridge, 1B/RHP, James Madison HS, VA

The Orioles are loaded and can take somewhat of a gamble on a potential two-way player in Eldridge. There’s a lot of smoke behind this pairing.

18. Brewers (JC) - Jacob Gonzalez, SS, Mississippi

Once a consensus top-five prospect in the class, Gonzalez’s stock has been hurt by a 2023 season in which Ole Miss failed to qualify for the postseason and his power production was down from 2022. There’s a ton to like here, excellent bat-to-ball skills and a good approach. This is great value at 18.

19. Rays (JN) - Brayden Taylor, 3B, TCU

Taylor’s stock was much higher before the season, then fell off… before rebounding after a strong close to this season. He may be off the board by this point, but the Rays are getting great value if he drops to them.

20. Blue Jays (JC) - Noble Meyer, Jesuit HS, OR

The Blue Jays have been linked with both prep and college players. After drafting Brandon Barriera with their first pick in 2023, they land comfortably the best prep arm in the 2023 class. Meyer has nasty stuff and a ton of upside.

21. Cardinals (JN) - Nolan Schanuel, 1B, Florida Atlantic

The Cardinals have been a giant disappointment this season and maybe be sellers at the deadline. Schanuel isn’t going to help immediately but may be the first baseman of the future in the post-Goldy era… which is coming sooner than anyone expected.

22. Mariners (JC) - Jacob Wilson, SS, Grand Canyon

The Mariners control the latter end of the first round, with three picks in quick succession. Wilson is a unique talent with elite bat-to-ball skills (he struck out 12 times over two seasons for Grand Canyon). The Mariners are another team that has developed pitching well but needs more bats in the system and Wilson is great value here.

23. Guardians (JN) - Thomas White, LHP, Phillips Academy, MA

Whenever I have to choose for Cleveland, I look for a pitcher I would want my favorite team to pick. There wasn’t a great college option in my opinion, so I was torn between White and Charlee Soto. When in doubt, go with the southpaw.

24. Braves (JC) - George Lombard Jr, 3B, Gulliver Prep HS, FL

The Braves have been linked to a bunch of prep hitters. Lombard is one of the best of the bunch. He should develop excellent power and stick at a corner infield spot.

25. Padres (JN) - Blake Mitchell, C, Sinton HS, TX

There is no high-profile injured pitcher to take, so it’s the highest-upside hitter. Mitchell could go much higher; Preller will stop the fall.

26. Yankees (JC) - Kevin McGonigle, SS, Monsignor Bonner HS, PA

The Yankees have been linked with all kinds of players this spring, particularly prep hitters. This is a sweet spot in the draft for that demographic. Lombard and Walker Martin would also be good fits here. McGonigle has a great hit tool to build on.

27. Phillies (JN) - Charlee Soto, RHP, Reborn Christian HS, FL

Philadelphia always seems to have pitchers fall into their laps. I’m not sure which pitcher they prefer of the next wave available, but Soto has the potential to be very good. 

28. Astros (JC) - Brock Wilken, 3B, Wake Forest

The Astros went with a good value college hitter in 2022 with Stillwater’s Drew Gilbert. Wilken has had an outstanding 2023, matching his power output with newfound patience at the plate. He’s a great fit coming from an analytically friendly college program.

29. Mariners (JN) Prospect Promotion Incentive Pick - Dillon Head, OF, Homewood-Flossmoor HS, IL

Wanted to pair Seattle with a tumbling prep pitcher with their added picks and money, but sniped myself with White and Soto. Head is the top prep still available.

Competitive Balance Round A

30. Mariners (JC) - Walker Martin, SS, Eaton HS, CO

The Mariners have a huge bonus pool available and are in a position to pick back-to-back from the prep-rich bats portion of the draft. Martin is an incredibly talented shortstop prospect who developed prodigious power in 2022.

31. Rays (JN) - Yohandy Morales, 3B, Miami

Doubling up on college third basemen may seem redundant, but it’s the Rays and they have a special way of going about things. 

32. Mets (JC) - Roch Cholowsky, SS, Chandler HS, AZ

The hard luck Mets finally got a pick. Cholowsky is an impressive two-sport athlete who might be a tough sign away from UCLA. He does everything in the infield well and put up some gaudy numbers at the combine.

33. Brewers (JN) - Steven Echavarria, RHP, Millburn HS, NJ

There are a number of arms that could come off the board in this range and finding the right prep pitcher is going to be very dependent on price tags. The Brewers would have to keep Echavarria from a Florida commitment, but there is a high upside here.

34. Twins (JC) - Colton Ledbetter, OF, Mississippi State

A strong floored college bat makes sense for the Twins at 34. Ledbetter has an elite approach at the plate and burgeoning power after transferring to the SEC in 2023. He has some of the best analytical markers of any college bat in the class.

35. Marlins (JN) - Cole Carrigg, C/SS/OF, San Diego State

The Marlins are reaping the benefits of having hitters without defined (or - you could argue - strong) defensive positions. Carrigg had a strong combine and can provide both a bat and strong defense at multiple positions.

36. Dodgers (JC) - Sammy Stafura, SS, Walter Panas HS, NY

Stafura is a helium cold-weather shortstop who does everything well. He’s gone from anonymous to a borderline first-round prospect in a matter of months and the Dodgers' player development is second to none.

37. Tigers (JN) - Travis Sykora, RHP, Round Rock HS, TX

Sykora is a big, strapping, explosive pitcher with enormous upside. Allowed to pick a safe pick in Langford earlier, the Tigers can take a big swing with the young Texan. 

38. Reds (JC) - Joe Whitman, LHP, Kent State

Whitman is another prospect who has zoomed up draft boards in the late spring. After struggling at Purdue he transferred to Kent State and dominated before a promising start on the Cape. Hard-throwing left-handed college pitchers are a sought-after demographic and Whitman has overtaken Hunter Owen as the best in the class.

39. Athletics (JN) - Jack Hurley, OF, Virginia Tech

After drafting Teel in the first round, the A’s get another strong college bat (among other tools as well) in Hurley. He has had success in front of big crowds - something he’ll hopefully get to play in front of again someday. 

What do you think of our mock draft of the first round? Who will get more selections correct? Which picks are most wrong? Discuss in the COMMENTS today. 

 

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[pierre75275]

Is there a chance the Twins could take Teel at 5?

[Mike Sixel]

If they get cute, I'll be disappointed. 

[chpettit19]

Lots of things I've read have suggest Max Clark may be the cheapest of the "big 5." If that's true, he feels like a great pick there. Get a chance to make up for passing on Carroll, while also saving money to take a big swing at 34, and other spots.

Ledbetter doesn't really thrill me at 34. He wasn't great in SEC play, and doesn't feel like a high ceiling type guy. 2 picks in the top 34, with a ton of extra money to spend because of the lottery jump, equals a chance to take 2 massive swings this year. I don't want safe, or "high floor," guys. Go after the 2 highest ceiling players you can with these 2 picks. Ledbetter just doesn't feel like that to me. But he does feel like he fits the Twins model, so I wouldn't be surprised by that pick.

[Mike Sixel]

7 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Lots of things I've read have suggest Max Clark may be the cheapest of the "big 5." If that's true, he feels like a great pick there. Get a chance to make up for passing on Carroll, while also saving money to take a big swing at 34, and other spots.

Ledbetter doesn't really thrill me at 34. He wasn't great in SEC play, and doesn't feel like a high ceiling type guy. 2 picks in the top 34, with a ton of extra money to spend because of the lottery jump, equals a chance to take 2 massive swings this year. I don't want safe, or "high floor," guys. Go after the 2 highest ceiling players you can with these 2 picks. Ledbetter just doesn't feel like that to me. But he does feel like he fits the Twins model, so I wouldn't be surprised by that pick.

They have plenty of high floor guys....that doesn't work. Go get the guy you think has a shot at being a star.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

30 minutes ago, pierre75275 said:

Is there a chance the Twins could take Teel at 5?

Yep. I think that's a possibility for sure.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

27 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

If they get cute, I'll be disappointed. 

It's more about who they get cute with, if that's the route. Rhett Lowder or Noble Meyer do way more for me than the group of college hitting infielders that are mentioned. If taking Lowder at #5 saves enough money to push another Top 20 player later, I'd consider it... Lowder is really, really good. I think a lot of people who didn't know are realizing it after last night. The gap between him and Skenes isn't as great as has been perceived. (There's still a gap, obviously.)

[Mike Sixel]

3 minutes ago, Jeremy Nygaard said:

It's more about who they get cute with, if that's the route. Rhett Lowder or Noble Meyer do way more for me than the group of college hitting infielders that are mentioned. If taking Lowder at #5 saves enough money to push another Top 20 player later, I'd consider it... Lowder is really, really good. I think a lot of people who didn't know are realizing it after last night. The gap between him and Skenes isn't as great as has been perceived. (There's still a gap, obviously.)

How'd that work out with Rooker and Enlow? 

I'm hard pressed to be in love with most of their early picks, frankly. Just pick the best player.

[2wins87]

45 minutes ago, pierre75275 said:

Is there a chance the Twins could take Teel at 5?

There have been a lot of rumors about them really preferring a college hitter, even over Clark and Jenkins, though Teel hasn't really been linked to them.

Doesn't mean Teel isn't actually on their radar at #5 though.  And you can't put that much stock in the rumors and linkages.

[Dman]

I like that you have them taking Clark.  I think that is the right play.  They don't need a college bat to get to the Majors right away.  They have plenty in the pipeline and a 5 tool high schooler with a good bat that could be a superstar player seems like a really good choice at number 5.

I could see Teel and Wilson in that spot as well but it feels like a slight step down talent wise.  The consensus is strong on the top 5 so it would be hard to move off of that IMO.

I just don't see the Twins going pitcher that high with all the great bats available at 5.  Will be interesting to see what they decide to do there.

[Doctor Gast]

54 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Lots of things I've read have suggest Max Clark may be the cheapest of the "big 5." If that's true, he feels like a great pick there. Get a chance to make up for passing on Carroll, while also saving money to take a big swing at 34, and other spots.

Ledbetter doesn't really thrill me at 34. He wasn't great in SEC play, and doesn't feel like a high ceiling type guy. 2 picks in the top 34, with a ton of extra money to spend because of the lottery jump, equals a chance to take 2 massive swings this year. I don't want safe, or "high floor," guys. Go after the 2 highest ceiling players you can with these 2 picks. Ledbetter just doesn't feel like that to me. But he does feel like he fits the Twins model, so I wouldn't be surprised by that pick.

 I heard the same thing about Clark & that PIT might pick him up because of this. PIT & DET sometimes come up with surprises. So it could be interesting. 

I'm not crazy about Ledbetter either I think we can do better.

 

[Mike Sixel]

53 minutes ago, Jeremy Nygaard said:

It's more about who they get cute with, if that's the route. Rhett Lowder or Noble Meyer do way more for me than the group of college hitting infielders that are mentioned. If taking Lowder at #5 saves enough money to push another Top 20 player later, I'd consider it... Lowder is really, really good. I think a lot of people who didn't know are realizing it after last night. The gap between him and Skenes isn't as great as has been perceived. (There's still a gap, obviously.)

I'd not be disappointed in Lowder, to be clear.....I just don't think saving money to hopefully sign a tough sign later should be the strategy. The strategy should be to take the highest ceiling player.

[Doctor Gast]

Great job guys!  I like where you have the top 2 (IMO) college catchers Teel & Carrigg. I agree with 2wins87 that Twins usually go after college bats. I'd like any of the top 5. But the way Teel is climging & our need for depth at catching, I'd be pleased if we'd pick him up. If Teel has an outstanding CWS, I won't be surprised if we did select him. If we don't select Teel then IMO we have to select Carrigg at #34,

I'm also surprised where Dollander, Bradfield & Gonzalez have fallen

[Dman]

6 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

 

I'm not crazy about Ledbetter either I think we can do better.

 

I agree why not pick Hurley there?  He has the about same rated bat a better arm and better speed.  Who cares if he is a centerfielder and they already picked Clark that just means he can play anywhere in the outfield.  I don't know why this FO is allergic to speed.  Tampa is always trying to get tooled up players and generally have guys that run well.  It helps for defense and position versatility. Take the slower guys later in the draft they will be there (i.e. CES, Ortega, Cossetti etc.).  Speed helps and is generally gone early take it while you can especially when attached to a decent bat.

[Jamie Cameron]

31 minutes ago, Dman said:

I agree why not pick Hurley there?  He has the about same rated bat a better arm and better speed.  Who cares if he is a centerfielder and they already picked Clark that just means he can play anywhere in the outfield.  I don't know why this FO is allergic to speed.  Tampa is always trying to get tooled up players and generally have guys that run well.  It helps for defense and position versatility. Take the slower guys later in the draft they will be there (i.e. CES, Ortega, Cossetti etc.).  Speed helps and is generally gone early take it while you can especially when attached to a decent bat.

Easy, you monsters lol! I'd be fine with Hurley too. My only issue with him is he has a strikeout rate approaching 25% and I like Ledbetter's approach a lot more.

I think the upshot at 34 as we get more and more into mock season etc is the Twins are going to have a pool of really good options at both 34 and 49. 34, in particular is a sweet spot for prep bats, but a lot of my favorites had gone by the time that pick came around. I'd offer one scenario I'd really like is if draft a college player at 5 from the consensus top 5 and take a swing on a prep at 34, ideally from the shortstop class.

[Dman]

40 minutes ago, Jamie Cameron said:

Easy, you monsters lol! I'd be fine with Hurley too. My only issue with him is he has a strikeout rate approaching 25% and I like Ledbetter's approach a lot more.

I think the upshot at 34 as we get more and more into mock season etc is the Twins are going to have a pool of really good options at both 34 and 49. 34, in particular is a sweet spot for prep bats, but a lot of my favorites had gone by the time that pick came around. I'd offer one scenario I'd really like is if draft a college player at 5 from the consensus top 5 and take a swing on a prep at 34, ideally from the shortstop class.

Sorry not directed at you directly as who you picked looks exactly like a FO pick.  I would like to see them go high school as much as makes sense this year as there is a nice group of IFA's in the GCL that they could move up with and create another big wave of really good prospects in the next 4 years. I also don't feel like they necessarily need a fast moving bat at this time so this seems like a good draft to go high school if you believe in the player.

Not sure how their modeling works and maybe you get more data points with a college player so the modeling gives you greater confidence in the outcome working out as predicated?  Not sure how all that works and I don't have as much info as they have to make decisions I just like to think my opinion means something lol.

[Jamie Cameron]

10 minutes ago, Dman said:

Sorry not directed at you directly as who you picked looks exactly like a FO pick.  I would like to see them go high school as much as makes this year as there is a nice group of IFA's in the GCL that they could move up with and create another big wave of really good prospects in the next 4 years. I also don't feel like they necessarily need a fast moving bat at this time so this seems like a good draft to go high school if you believe in the player.

Not sure how their modeling works and maybe you get more data points with a college player so the modeling gives you greater confidence in the outcome working out as predicated?  Not sure how all that works and I don't have as much info as they have to make decisions I just like to think my opinion means something lol.

It's all good, just messing with you. We are pretty much always aligned. Some statistical models emphasize age significantly (younger = more upside etc) and I think part if it might be that the Twins' model doesn't. After seeing some of the prep bats hit at the combine it was hard not to get my head turned by guys like Bitonti who were hitting the ball 110 mph with a wooden bat at 18 lol.

[terrydactyls]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

Great job guys!  I like where you have the top 2 (IMO) college catchers Teel & Carrigg. I agree with 2wins87 that Twins usually go after college bats. I'd like any of the top 5. But the way Teel is climging & our need for depth at catching, I'd be pleased if we'd pick him up. If Teel has an outstanding CWS, I won't be surprised if we did select him. If we don't select Teel then IMO we have to select Carrigg at #34,

I'm also surprised where Dollander, Bradfield & Gonzalez have fallen

Teel and the Virginia Cavaliers were eliminated from the CWS last weekend.

[SarasotaBill]

3 hours ago, Jeremy Nygaard said:

It's more about who they get cute with, if that's the route. Rhett Lowder or Noble Meyer do way more for me than the group of college hitting infielders that are mentioned. If taking Lowder at #5 saves enough money to push another Top 20 player later, I'd consider it... Lowder is really, really good. I think a lot of people who didn't know are realizing it after last night. The gap between him and Skenes isn't as great as has been perceived. (There's still a gap, obviously.)

Lowder was great last night. Command and movement were exceptional.

[Doctor Gast]

48 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

Teel and the Virginia Cavaliers were eliminated from the CWS last weekend.

All right, thanks for the info,

[SteveLV]

Watching video and interviews of Clark, he appears very confident, poised and mature for his young age.

I get this weird vibe of a combination of Lenny Dykstra and a young Pete Rose.

If they pass on one of the top 5 that drops to them they are playing with fire....

[tony&rodney]

Clark at #5 and either Carigg or Sykora at #34. But for sure, let's not get cute with the first choice.

[Twins33]

My hope is Clark since Skenes is not happening. Seems to have a good hit tool and will definitely be a CF. I’d be okay with any of the top 5, though Jenkins is my least wanted of the five. 

[purplesoldier4u]

7 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

If they get cute, I'll be disappointed. 

Unless it's Enrique Bradfield?

[purplesoldier4u]

I know this is beating the parenthetical dead horse, but MLB could make the draft more interesting by allowing all trades, including slotted dollars, and making it a three-day affair.

Day 1: 1-5

Day 2: 6-10

Day 3: 11-15

 

[Beast]

I mean, do we have to take a “high floor” college outfielder with “(insert adjective) power” and no defense with a first round pick (including comp picks) of every draft?  Doesn’t seem to work out that well (referring to the comp pick, I like Clark at 5).

[TwinsFan98]

Teel or Lowder would be fine by me

[Mike Sixel]

2 hours ago, purplesoldier4u said:

I know this is beating the parenthetical dead horse, but MLB could make the draft more interesting by allowing all trades, including slotted dollars, and making it a three-day affair.

Day 1: 1-5

Day 2: 6-10

Day 3: 11-15

 

Agreed

[D.C Twins]

Thanks Jeremy and posters... very insightful analysis for someone who doesn't follow the prospects or college baseball much!

[TopGunn#22]

I'm still seeing rumors that the Pirates LOVE Max Clark.  I would be happy if the Twins picked Clark at #5 but while watching the classic LSU v Wake game with Skenes and Lowder the ESPN graphic referred to Skenes as the #5 prospect in the draft...right where the Twins pick.  If the Pirates DO select Clark, Crews will certainly go #2 and then all hell braks loose.  I'd take Skenes in a heartbeat if he's there at #5.  I'd give him one of two starts in Cedar Rapids or St. Paul and then I'd get him up to the Twins for the rest of the season.  Even if he pitched in long relief his stuff would play.  Why waste ANY pitches in the minor leagues with this kid??