Can the Twins Get Better at the Deadline?

[Ted Schwerzler]

The Minnesota Twins have arguably the best roster in the American League Central, but they have done very little to capitalize on opportunity and put distance between them and the competition. Looking at the trade deadline as an opportunity to improve, does the roster actually allow them an ability to do so?

 

Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

Coming into the season Derek Falvey and Thad Levine did plenty to put a strong foot forward with 2023 being an opportunity to rebound. Joey Gallo was a decent bet as a comeback player, and Carlos Correa was signed to a long-term deal. Donovan Solano has proven to be a great utility option, and Kyle Farmer has been the glue guy you want in a clubhouse. If there were glaring areas that went untouched, it was the addition of a right-handed outfield bat, and the bullpen.

Now though, with slightly more than a month until the Major League Baseball trade deadline, is there truly an opportunity for Minnesota to get better?

The first part of the equation is what the club would be willing to give up. A season ago we saw aggressive moves made when parting with prospects like Spencer Steer, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Cade Povich, and Yennier Cano. Those types are less evident across the Twins current top prospect landscape. Royce Lewis and Brooks Lee aren’t going anywhere. Edouard Julien and Emmanuel Rodriguez are likely untouchable as well.

Dipping down beyond that, you get into players like Matt Wallner, Simeon Woods Richardson, Jose Salas, and David Festa. The former is really the only one that is currently producing, and he could find immediate time with the Twins should they move on from Max Kepler. Dealing anyone else at a depreciated value seems less than ideal. You could attempt to put Jose Miranda in this group as well, but piecing him out at pennies on the dollar doesn’t seem like a wise move.

Then there is the current roster construction for Rocco Baldelli’s big league club. The infield spots are all but established with Alex Kirilloff at first, and Julien at second while Jorge Polanco is shelved. The left side isn’t changing, and catcher is already a committed spot with Ryan Jeffers eating into Christian Vazquez’s time despite his $30 million offseason deal. In the outfield there is need for center help behind Michael A. Taylor since Byron Buxton can’t play the field. On the corners though, there are more than enough suitors to make things work.

Minnesota built rotation depth behind their top starters thanks to the emergence of Bailey Ober and Louie Varland. The latter is not quite there, but he can continue to be a security blanket for Kenta Maeda with the veteran returning from injury. Another arm may make sense, but it would need to be one near the top of the stable.

If anything, the bullpen is where you have the most straightforward path to add. Behind Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, and the nice surprise that has been Brock Stewart, leverage spots generate nail biting for the Twins. Jorge Lopez has regressed and may not work his way back, while Emilio Pagan has continued to show he can’t be trusted in key spots. Minnesota continues to work arms through, and while Caleb Thielbar has a spot when healthy, he’s been limited with injury of late.

A season after going gangbusters at the deadline, it seems unlikely for Minnesota to have a similar path this time around. Both in assets they want to part with, and places to put new talent, there are more questions than answers. Adding a right-handed outfield bat and a reliever this offseason seemingly would’ve been much more straightforward simply dealing in dollars.

The front office will need to acquire reinforcements of some sort if they want this group to hang onto the division, and make noise in the postseason. However, the way in which they find avenues to make it work could take a great deal of juggling.

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[mikelink45]

Beware of reaching for the golden ring - we have the pieces to succeed in the system.   Rodriguez will eventually replace Taylor, but Taylor has not been a problem - it is the Gallo/Kepler strikeout kings that have hurt and Larnach's inability to take the opportunity that presented itself.  321 ABs - 114 Ks  - 35%  Of course Gallo leads with 45% Ks.  Total for both is 0.3 WAR.  

Would Wallner be worse?  I doubt it. Please wake up the FO - make changes that add to the quality of the team, do not send out prospects for flawed and injury prone replacements. 

[terrydactyls]

Who are these "more than enough suitors" for players like Kepler, Gallo, Larnach, Castro, etc?  I don't see anyone beating down the doors to trade for any one of those.

[Riverbrian]

Yes they can improve at the deadline and Yes they can make it worse. There are no guarantees in baseball. 

Right now is when Kepler and Gallo should go away to create opportunity for others.

With Kepler and Gallo out of the way, we can get a good month of Wallner or Larnach or Miranda or Julien to see if or how much help we need at the deadline.  

After a month of someone else besides Kepler and Gallo... you will have more information for those trade deadline decisions.  

Right now... the only thing we know is this: Kepler and Gallo have been the same players they have been for the past 3 years and the players that they have been for the past 3 years can be replaced by ALMOST ANYONE.  

Running Kepler and Gallo right up to the deadline only provides information that we already know. 

It's time to find out what you have so you can find out what you need. 

 

[danielp19653]

Honestly I think I'd rather see them on the sell side this deadline, start clearing room for the AAA guys and figure out what you have. Kepler, Polanco, Gallo, and Solano just don't seem to have any future on the team. Could take it one step further and say Gray and Maeda since neither will be back next year but I don't think the Twins are so bad you actively hurt your team to get Gray out. Get what you can get for them and clear space. Don't send prospects off for a team that can barely manage .500 and struggles against the Tigers.

[JD-TWINS]

If in 1st or 2nd place in division in a month, BUY.

Addition by subtraction (minus Kepler - Gallo) with Wallner & Castro & Larnach getting more AB’s.

It’s a stretch, but will Gordon have an opportunity in CF v. RH pitching by August 1?

Need a reliever……who to offer in trade?

If Lee & Lewis are the future with CC & Kirilloff in the infield……Farmer signed through ‘24…..how are Miranda & Julien (both defensively challenged) not potential trade pieces?

[Mike Sixel]

The one thing here that might make me ok buying.... another forty man crush. But I really agree with the above, move on from Kepler and Gallo and see what you have. 

[TwinsDr2021]

21 minutes ago, danielp19653 said:

Honestly I think I'd rather see them on the sell side this deadline, start clearing room for the AAA guys and figure out what you have. Kepler, Polanco, Gallo, and Solano just don't seem to have any future on the team

Hate to ask, but who are the guys in AAA? Are you talking about the Wallner, Miranda and Larnach? Two of those haven't been good this year and the other one is 25 and never really has been given a chance. I am kind of done with the Larnach experiment but I agree with getting Wallner up, Miranda is a little different, I really don't want him taking at bats from Lewis or AK so I don't really see a fit this year. (Since Buxton isn't going to play the field) Nobody else in St. Paul to I really care to see up, Williams has been great but he is 26 1/2 and plays 1B and DH and not on the 40 man.

[Blyleven2011]

Sellers or buyers ....

Commanding the first place lead in the division at 500 is not a pretty picture  , Our goal is to win the division ...

I see this team going nowhere in the 2023 playoffs against better teams but anything can happen  , I have seen the 2019 and 2020 playoffs go nowhere because our hitting went south against better pitching  ....

I'm not seeing enough from the lineup to consider it worthy of even being in the playoffs because our lineup is even worse now during this season and wouldn't stackup again against better pitching in the playoffs  ...

Our Starting pitching  has performed well up to now and has been keeping us in practically every game , but still alot of games left and who will remain healthy to contribute to the playoffs  , our lineup and bullpen have been our main contributors for our 500 record ...

I would be willing to be sellers of some veterans and some others if we continue to  play 500 ball to the deadline  , if we play 500 ball to the deadline there will be to many holes to fill to right the ship  ...

I can't take this team or fo office seriously until they Can get hungry with a killer instinct and distance themselves from the rest of the division  , they've had every opportunity to do this but have failed miserably ...

I will continue to follow  the twins ,  win or lose ...

[cHawk]

Of course they can. They can also get worse, as we saw last year.

[TwinsDr2021]

15 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Need a reliever……who to offer in trade?

If Lee & Lewis are the future with CC & Kirilloff in the infield……Farmer signed through ‘24…..how are Miranda & Julien (both defensively challenged) not potential trade pieces?

Celestino, Williams in AAA could be guys to trade for a relief pitcher. I personally would want more than a relief pitcher for Miranda, Julien and Larnach. I actually wouldn't trade Julien or Miranda unless I was offered I couldn't resist.

Keirsey seems like the perfect guy to trade to a terrible team with a good relief pitcher. Keirsey just turned 26 bats left handed and seems to be way down the pecking order of Twins prospects and is playing great  (Haven't looked in great detail but maybe somebody like Brent Suter from COL?)

[Karbo]

Addition by subtraction. Move or dfa Gallo and Keplar. Call up Wallner and either Miranda or Larnach, until Polo comes back.

[Blyleven2011]

4 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Celestino, Williams in AAA could be guys to trade for a relief pitcher. I personally would want more than a relief pitcher for Miranda, Julien and Larnach. I actually wouldn't trade Julien or Miranda unless I was offered I couldn't resist.

Keirsey seems like the perfect guy to trade to a terrible team with a good relief pitcher. Keirsey just turned 26 bats left handed and seems to be way down the pecking order of Twins prospects and is playing great  (Haven't looked in great detail but maybe somebody like Brent Suter from COL?)

All logical choices to trade that are playing well  currently  that could help another team ,,, We have a surplus of players in AAA  or below playing well in the minors that are blocked and will potentially lose them unprotected in the rule 5 draft ...

[TwinsDr2021]

11 minutes ago, Blyleven2011 said:

Sellers or buyers ....

Commanding the first place lead in the division at 500 is not a pretty picture  , Our goal is to win the division ...

I don't want them to be sellers because that probably means the ownership as given them some sort of job security and if they don't make the playoffs and win a game this year, I want this FO GONE! With the players they have, the amount of money and prospect capital spent and we would have to deal with 21, 22, 23 in the worse division in baseball is unacceptable. 

With that said they could be both buyers and sellers at the deadline as long as they are trying to improve this years team and future teams. Meaning I would be pissed if they traded a controllable asset like Julie/Miranda for a relief pitcher that is a FA at the end of the year and they still miss the playoffs. They have a bunch of older unproven guys at all levels and those are the types I would like to see traded.

[JD-TWINS]

4 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Celestino, Williams in AAA could be guys to trade for a relief pitcher. I personally would want more than a relief pitcher for Miranda, Julien and Larnach. I actually wouldn't trade Julien or Miranda unless I was offered I couldn't resist.

Keirsey seems like the perfect guy to trade to a terrible team with a good relief pitcher. Keirsey just turned 26 bats left handed and seems to be way down the pecking order of Twins prospects and is playing great  (Haven't looked in great detail but maybe somebody like Brent Suter from COL?)

Where does Miranda play??……he’s been in AAA for 5 weeks working on his swing. Can only roster 26 guys going forward…..Julien is an energetic bat but medium/long-term it’s Lee’s position. Right?…….we have Polanco/Farmer/Castro (Gordon) to get us through this year & to the point of Lee being ready next year some time. I like Julien but trying to be realistic on what gets us a decent return.

Larnach was sent back to AAA twice when leading the Twins in RBI……what do they think of him? “potential” and “sweet swing” only gets one so far in MLB. I see a star in Larnach’s bat but he has to perform when given opportunities.

We traded Steer and he’s thriving in Cincinnati - Twins have needs & can’t worry about guys we trade having success.

[JD-TWINS]

1 minute ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

I don't want them to be sellers because that probably means the ownership as given them some sort of job security and if they don't make the playoffs and win a game this year, I want this FO GONE! With the players they have, the amount of money and prospect capital spent and we would have to deal with 21, 22, 23 in the worse division in baseball is unacceptable. 

With that said they could be both buyers and sellers at the deadline as long as they are trying to improve this years team and future teams. Meaning I would be pissed if they traded a controllable asset like Julie/Miranda for a relief pitcher that is a FA at the end of the year and they still miss the playoffs. They have a bunch of older unproven guys at all levels and those are the types I would like to see traded.

Who can they trade that has value? I’ve brought up Julien & Miranda in a couple places today. Not challenging you, just curious on who we have as alternatives.

Celestino seems to me to be a real stretch unless he’s much improved from ‘22. Not sure of other names?

[DJL44]

I think this season they should think less about buying veterans with prospects or selling veterans for prospects and more about remaking the roster by dealing vets for vets. Example: send Kepler out for an expensive, mediocre reliever. I think buyers will outnumber sellers at the deadline so there will be an opportunity for buyers to deal with each other.

[D.C Twins]

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

Yes they can improve at the deadline and Yes they can make it worse. There are no guarantees in baseball. 

Right now is when Kepler and Gallo should go away to create opportunity for others.

With Kepler and Gallo out of the way, we can get a good month of Wallner or Larnach or Miranda or Julien to see if or how much help we need at the deadline.  

After a month of someone else besides Kepler and Gallo... you will have more information for those trade deadline decisions.  

Right now... the only thing we know is this: Kepler and Gallo have been the same players they have been for the past 3 years and the players that they have been for the past 3 years can be replaced by ALMOST ANYONE.  

Running Kepler and Gallo right up to the deadline only provides information that we already know. 

It's time to find out what you have so you can find out what you need. 

 

This... this... aaaaaaand THIS!

[chpettit19]

The question, to me, is what are you targeting? What's the goal at the deadline? 

I think the Twins being buyers at the deadline would be a disaster. They're not close enough. Lewis, Correa, Lee, Kirilloff around the IF sounds great, but Lee isn't exactly lighting AA on fire, and Lewis may be a better fit in CF. I don't think there's as much of a logjam on the infield as others seem to. 

Can the Twins get better at the deadline? Of course they can. But to what end, and at what cost? If they rip off a month where they win 65% of their games, and the offense scores 5+ runs in 90% of their games, let's buy. Does anyone expect that? I'm a believer in the idea that once you're in the playoffs anything can happen, but within reason. I think breaking "the streak" is important, and would be "happy" with that outcome this year. But I'm not willing to sacrifice a single piece of 2024 and beyond to do that. 

I hope they don't trade a single guy who has any shot at being on the 40-man this offseason. It's time to make the transition to the "young guys." If they don't think the young guys can do it they're admitting they've failed to build any sort of reliable prospect pipeline. They have a whole bunch of league average, or worse, vets on this team with no future on the club. If you can't replace those guys with league average, or worse, rookies on league minimum deals that allow you to supplement this offseason on the FA market you're doomed.

Unless they're going on a massive tear for the next month, the deadline should be about transitioning to the new core. Don't blow up your chances of winning the division, and breaking "the streak," by going hog wild on selling (keep Gray, for example), but set yourself up with a chance to answer some questions about the future of this team the rest of the way. If they go in a spiral for the next month, then sell off everything, and start prepping your resume (hopefully). This deadline isn't the time to take chances on improving. Next offseason is. You just need to find out how many cheap players you have that are worthy of MLB playing time so you know how much you can splurge on the open market. The goal should be finding more guys to add to Ryan, Ober, Duran, Lewis, Julien, AK, and the rest of the league minimum guys so you can go big on spending this offseason. Don't trade away the league minimum guys for a hope and a prayer that your vets will suddenly be better than they are.

[Mike Sixel]

53 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Who can they trade that has value? I’ve brought up Julien & Miranda in a couple places today. Not challenging you, just curious on who we have as alternatives.

Celestino seems to me to be a real stretch unless he’s much improved from ‘22. Not sure of other names?

They aren't trading Julien. He's their starting 2B. He's a very good hitter. 

 

[MTV]

2 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

If in 1st or 2nd place in division in a month, BUY.

Addition by subtraction (minus Kepler - Gallo) with Wallner & Castro & Larnach getting more AB’s.

It’s a stretch, but will Gordon have an opportunity in CF v. RH pitching by August 1?

Need a reliever……who to offer in trade?

If Lee & Lewis are the future with CC & Kirilloff in the infield……Farmer signed through ‘24…..how are Miranda & Julien (both defensively challenged) not potential trade pieces?

Injuries will certainly be apparent, Kirilloff can move to an outfield corner for a little bit if necessary, plus DH if Buxton can move to the outfield again. Julien and (hopefully) Miranda are young sparks on an old roster and should be built around instead of sold off, similar to Lee, Lewis, Wallner and Rodriguez

[jorgenswest]

They just split a 4 game series at home against the last place team in the AL East. This isn’t close enough to a World Series contender yet. It would be nice to see them win 4 series in a row. That is what they would need to do in the  playoffs against the best teams. The best they have done is two series in a row this year.

The playoffs are not a crapshoot. Some write that they just need to go 13-9. It should be added that they have to go 13-9 while winning 4 series in a row. Start out 1-2 or 4-4 and they are done. They don’t get the opportunity to get to the 13-9.

They should hold for now neither selling or buying. If they can win 4 series in a row by July 30 go ahead and go for it. Be a buyer. Otherwise I think they should sell off their expiring contracts. Winning the central is not enough to sell the future.

For now, if they were to move on from Kepler, Gallo or Pagán I would not consider that selling. 

 

[Ted Schwerzler]

3 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

Who are these "more than enough suitors" for players like Kepler, Gallo, Larnach, Castro, etc?  I don't see anyone beating down the doors to trade for any one of those.

On the corners there are more than enough suitors internally. Meaning the Twins have outfield options to move on from Kepler, so trading for a corner outfielder doesn't make a ton of sense.

[dxpavelka]

MIGHT be a great opportunity to zig while everyone else zags.  Everyone else will be (as always) looking for pitching.  We should be focusing on bats.  Should be less competition.

[danielp19653]

2 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Hate to ask, but who are the guys in AAA? Are you talking about the Wallner, Miranda and Larnach? Two of those haven't been good this year and the other one is 25 and never really has been given a chance. I am kind of done with the Larnach experiment but I agree with getting Wallner up, Miranda is a little different, I really don't want him taking at bats from Lewis or AK so I don't really see a fit this year. (Since Buxton isn't going to play the field) Nobody else in St. Paul to I really care to see up, Williams has been great but he is 26 1/2 and plays 1B and DH and not on the 40 man.

I was thinking Wallner and Larnach taking Kepler and Gallo at bats, feels like at worst a wash offensively, maybe a bit of a drop in defensive value but it honestly doesn't look like either really wants to play defense most days so might be a wash there as well. Miranda replaces Solanon as that often used corner infielder to rest players, I agree harder to fit him in with DH gone but he's been hitting well in AAA the last month and its time to figure out whether he's made the adjustment or will forever be Austadillo at the MLB level flailing at everything for easy outs. Julien can handle second, not like Palonco was ever good defensively either, Lee or Martin also give some depth there next year if he really regresses defensively. Not saying moving on from those guys makes us better this year but do think it puts us in a better spot the next three years with some reinforcements from trades in the minors to fill holes and (such as in the bullpen) and gives a better idea of where we need to actually target above bench level players on the MLB roster in FA if those AAA/AA guys aren't going to adjust.

[TwinsDr2021]

2 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Where does Miranda play??……he’s been in AAA for 5 weeks working on his swing. Can only roster 26 guys going forward…..Julien is an energetic bat but medium/long-term it’s Lee’s position. Right?…….we have Polanco/Farmer/Castro (Gordon) to get us through this year & to the point of Lee being ready next year some time. I like Julien but trying to be realistic on what gets us a decent return.

Larnach was sent back to AAA twice when leading the Twins in RBI……what do they think of him? “potential” and “sweet swing” only gets one so far in MLB. I see a star in Larnach’s bat but he has to perform when given opportunities.

We traded Steer and he’s thriving in Cincinnati - Twins have needs & can’t worry about guys we trade having success.

Miranda is like Arraez (no where near as good of hitter) but if he is playing really well, you find a spot 3B, 2B, 1B, DH, RF I really don't know but he has options left and is only going to turn 25 next week. I am not ready to give up on him quite yet. Julien is very similar and long term both him and Miranda don't work on this teams with their fielding issues, but the dude can hit and 1B, DH, 2B occasionally works. Also Julien reminds me of Kubel pre-broken body and that could be special and I was also calling for him to start the season with the Twins, so I might be biased.

I have said it before I am kind of done with Larnach, he has been given the most chances and in 2 plus season over 600 at bats at the age of 26 probably will never be more than he is right now.

As for 2B, Lee hasn't played 1 inning there since signing with the Twins, so I am not quite ready to hand him the position, I am one of the few that would like him to be the Twins starting left fielder right now (another position he hasn't played)

Plus I don't see this team being big time buyers, they are set in the rotation, they are set currently in the infield. The could always upgrade in the outfield but I don't see them going after a star player that would require massive trade assets. It is bulpen help, then more bullpen, on top of more bullpen help.

 

[TwinsDr2021]

2 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Who can they trade that has value? I’ve brought up Julien & Miranda in a couple places today. Not challenging you, just curious on who we have as alternatives.

Celestino seems to me to be a real stretch unless he’s much improved from ‘22. Not sure of other names?

See my last response, they have assets for relief rental pitchers, they have plenty of those assets. They aren't going after Soto, Ohtani or either of the Cards older guys. They aren't and I think most would agree that would be a bad idea. Maybe somebody would take Gordon, to me he has fulfilled his needs here, he has no options and a guy in his position needs to have some, because he just isn't good enough to be a major league full time starter. I am guessing a terrible team would take a chance on Celestino for a expiring contract, which would probably be an over pay on the Twins part.

[TwinsDr2021]

1 hour ago, Ted Schwerzler said:

On the corners there are more than enough suitors internally. Meaning the Twins have outfield options to move on from Kepler, so trading for a corner outfielder doesn't make a ton of sense.

Who are these players? Larnach and Wallner?

[RpR]

4 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

 Yes they can make it worse. There are no guarantees in baseball. 

 

 

BINGO

I am sure the fans in the stands want to see the Twins team turn into an extended AAA team, or maybe be really good like Oakland.

Throw the dice, fans don't care.

[Riverbrian]

8 minutes ago, RpR said:

BINGO

I am sure the fans in the stands want to see the Twins team turn into an extended AAA team, or maybe be really good like Oakland.

Throw the dice, fans don't care.

I'm not afraid of youth like you are... What I am afraid of is vets who are failing and keeping their jobs.  

Somewhere in the baseball universe there are 400 players who can produce more than Kepler has the past 3 years. 

It's time to start looking at those 400 other players.