Should the Twins Stop Benching Alex Kirilloff Versus Left-Handed Pitchers?

[Cody Schoenmann]

With Alex Kirilloff being one of the few consistently productive hitters in the lineup, can the Twins afford to keep benching Kirilloff when they face left-handed pitchers?

Image courtesy of Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

If a Twins fan were granted three Twins-centric wishes that would come true for the 2023 Major League season, wish number one would be to end the 18-game playoff losing streak that has plagued this franchise for 19 years, wish number two would be that the Twins win their third World Series, and wish number three would be that the Twins organization and fans alike would finally get to see Alex Kirilloff and Royce Lewis play out the rest of the season with an outstanding bill of health.

In reality, wishes number one and two look very suspect right now, but wish number three appears to be on track to happen, which is a blessing in itself. Whether it be Lewis tearing his ACL twice in two years or Kirilloff undergoing wrist surgeries in consecutive seasons, these once highly touted Twins prospects have endured immense physical and emotional hurdles that they have been able to power through every single time.

Lewis has solidified himself as the everyday third baseman for at least the rest of the season. In contrast, Kirilloff has solidified himself as an almost-every-game starter who plays either left field, right field, designated hitter, or his best defensive position, first base, during any given game.

Lewis and Kirilloff are finally able to showcase the talents that had them both ranked as unanimous Top 50 prospects in Major League Baseball. Although Lewis and Kirilloff contribute to the Twins on a near-every-game basis, their situations differ. Lewis is in the starting lineup whether the starting pitcher throws left or right-handed. Kirilloff, on the other hand, is not. 

The Twins love to deploy platoon lineups as well as utilize in-game substitutions to get what is perceived to be the upper hand in every situation, even if the advantage is incremental. One of the more controversial ways the Twins deploy a platoon is by benching Kirilloff when they face left-handed starting pitchers and pinch-hitting for him whenever a left-handed reliever comes out of the opposing team's bullpen.

Some platoon players are performing well, as right-handed hitting specialist Donovan Solano is hitting .321/.357/.472 (.829) with 17 hits, three walks, and eight strikeouts in 56 plate appearances against left-handed pitching and left-handed hitting specialist Edouard Julien is hitting .279/.383/.544 (.927) with 19 hits, 11 walks, and 27 strikeouts in 82 plate appearances, but most are underperforming their career-split numbers.

For example, utility player Kyle Farmer, who has a career OPS of .829 versus left-handed pitching, has generated an OPS of just .730 versus left-handed pitching this year, a 99-point drop. Also, outfielder Trevor Larnach, who the Twins organization and fans alike had hoped would develop into a hitter that would hit right-handed pitching at an above average level, has only been able to muster an OPS of .728 this season, which is on par with his career OPS versus right-handed pitching of .726. 

With hitters who the Twins assumed would be effective platoon players struggling to thrive against the type of pitching handedness they were supposed to, one must ask themselves, should they stop benching one of their best hitters in Kirilloff every time they face a left-handed pitcher?

First, to add some context, it appears that the Twins are using games when they face a left-handed starting pitcher as a subsequent "off day" for Kirilloff so he doesn't put too much strain on his twice surgically repaired right wrist. Although this practice makes sense in a vacuum, why does Kirilloff often get pinch-hit whenever a left-handed reliever comes in? 

Let's take a look. 

Through his first 125 plate appearances, Kirilloff is hitting .288/.408/.442 (.850) with a wRC+ of 144 and an fWAR of 0.6, which ranks tied for sixth on the team for position players just behind Taylor (1.2 fWAR), Buxton (0.9 fWAR), Jeffers (0.8 fWAR), Castro (0.7 fWAR), and Farmer (0.7 fWAR).

Within those 125 plate appearances, Kirilloff has faced a right-handed pitcher for 113 and a left-handed pitcher for 16. In the 113 plate appearances against a right-handed pitcher, Kirilloff is hitting .301/.425/.441 (.866) with 28 hits, two of them being home runs, 18 walks, and 27 strikeouts. In the 16 plate appearances against left-handed pitchers, Kirilloff is hitting .154/.313/.385 (.698) with two hits, one of them being a home run, one walk, and three strikeouts.

Although 16 plate appearances is a minor enough sample size to the point where making any absolute judgments could be viewed as ignorant, it is hard not to notice the considerable discrepancy that is present. Kirilloff is a much better hitter against right-handed pitchers. Still, subtracting the player who is arguably the most consistent and overall best hitter from your lineup whenever a left-handed pitcher is set to start or come in for relief is hard to justify. 

The Twins have notoriously long leashes with some players (i.e., Max Kepler and Emilio Pagán) to the point where one starts to ponder if that metaphorical leash even exists. At the same time, the Twins have irrationally short leashes with other players, specifically younger players Edouard Julien, Alex Kirilloff, and, most recently, Royce Lewis.

This phenomenon has been played out twice in grand fashion. First, during a game against the San Francisco Giants on May 11th, when manager Rocco Baldelli decided to pinch-hit right-handed hitting Solano for the left-handed hitting Julien in the bottom of the second inning and right-handed hitting Garlick for left-handed hitting Kirilloff in the bottom of the third, and second on June 13th when Baldelli decided to pinch hit the left-handed hitting Kepler for the right-handed hitting Lewis in the bottom of the ninth against Brewers and star closer Devin Williams.

Baldelli and the Twins front office's decision was justifiably instantly critiqued by Twins fans and reporters alike. These moves illustrated that the Twins highly value the marginal advantage platooning gives teams to what could be seen as a stubborn extent and that the Twins don't trust their young prospects to perform against same-handedness pitchers. 

This philosophy feels like a failure, and the Twins should look into reanalyzing their approach to handling platooning as it pertains to young talented prospects who many see as future career franchise cornerstones. Julien, Lewis, and Kirilloff should be trusted to perform against same-handed pitching, and if given an adequate opportunity, they more likely than not will. 

Correa and Buxton are immune to platooning. They are in the lineup whether the Twins face a left-handed or right-handed starting pitcher, and they don't get pinch-hit for if a same-handed relief pitcher comes in to face them. It is time to start thinking about doing the same with Julien, Lewis, and, most notably, Kirilloff. 

Should the Twins stop benching Kirilloff when they face left-handed pitching? What do you think of the Twins philosophy on platooning?

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[GNess]

Yes, Kirilloff seems, to my eyes to be the real deal at the plate. He should be an everyday player for the most part. Plus, how is he going to develop fully if they don't let him bat vs LH pitching? Are the other RH options that take his place in the lineup actually an upgrade other than a minor, short-term only impact.

[terrydactyls]

YES!  The removing of Lewis for Kepler was the best example of bad use of the opposite handed theory.  Lewis hits right-handed pitchers far better than Kepler.  They will never learn how to hit same-side pitchers if they never get an opportunity to do so.  And pinch hitting in the early innings is really stupid.  By the third inning, you have burned through your bench players.  Idiotic is a polite term.

[Craig Arko]

I would give him some opportunities to show what he can do vs. LH. Then we’ll know more.

[jorgenswest]

The Giants game gets referenced frequently. Isn’t it the case that virtually all of the offense in that game came from those bench moves? I think the three were on base 6 of 8 plate appearances and accounted for the only run. Somehow that has been forgotten over time. Kepler also got on base when he pinch hit for Lewis. That would make it 7 for 9 in those two games. Is the argument that it is the process and results are irrelevant? 

Should Kirilloff start against left handed pitching? If he gives the Twins a better chance to win then yes. I would qualify that yes if the medical staff recommends giving him some time off for his wrist. In that case I would maximize the plate appearances against right handed pitching.

 

[Cody Schoenmann]

40 minutes ago, GNess said:

Yes, Kirilloff seems, to my eyes to be the real deal at the plate. He should be an everyday player for the most part. Plus, how is he going to develop fully if they don't let him bat vs LH pitching? Are the other RH options that take his place in the lineup actually an upgrade other than a minor, short-term only impact.

I agree that his development is an important aspect as to why they should give Kirilloff more opportunity versus LHP, and the same goes for Julien versus LHP and Lewis versus RHP. As it pertains to right-handed options that take his place in the lineup that are an upgrade, Donovan Solano is a significant upgrade when they face LHP. I am in no way saying the Twins shouldn't be playing Solano at 1B when they face LHP, because, especially as of late, Solano has been extremely valuable for the Twins offensively. With that said, I do think the Twins should seriously consider playing Kirilloff over Gallo, Larnach, or Kepler in either LF or RF when they face a LHP.  

[Cody Schoenmann]

28 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

The Giants game gets referenced frequently. Isn’t it the case that virtually all of the offense in that game came from those bench moves? I think the three were on base 6 of 8 plate appearances and accounted for the only run. Somehow that has been forgotten over time. Kepler also got on base when he pinch hit for Lewis. That would make it 7 for 9 in those two games. Is the argument that it is the process and results are irrelevant? 

Should Kirilloff start against left handed pitching? If he gives the Twins a better chance to win then yes. I would qualify that yes if the medical staff recommends giving him some time off for his wrist. In that case I would maximize the plate appearances against right handed pitching.

 

It is true that all of the offense in that game came from the bench moves, but I think that can be attributed to the randomness of baseball more than anything else. For example, Kyle Garlick hit a home run off of a right-handed pitcher. That rarely ever happens. I think the way they approached that game as an organization was flawed, and I don't think it is worth it to pinch-hit for two of your best young hitters in the second and third inning of a game in May. 

[chpettit19]

I'm a fan of platooning certain players, but not the guys you expect/hope to be your stars. If Kirilloff, or Julien, can't hit lefties, they aren't stars. 16 PAs are completely useless as a sample size. 1 extra hit in there jumps his BA from .154 to .230. 2 extra hits puts him at .308. 16 PAs show literally nothing about his ability to hit lefties. For his MLB career he has 117 PAs against lefties. He has a .707 OPS against them. Definitely nothing to write home about, but when compared to his career .738 OPS against righties it sure doesn't look like he is "a much better hitter against right-handed pitchers." If you have to pinch hit for someone in the top 4 of your lineup, they shouldn't be in the top 4 of your lineup. I'd actually prefer a top 5 that is "platoon proof," but let's just get to 4 guys and go from there. Stop pinch hitting for your hoped for stars.

[Cody Schoenmann]

5 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I'm a fan of platooning certain players, but not the guys you expect/hope to be your stars. If Kirilloff, or Julien, can't hit lefties, they aren't stars. 16 PAs are completely useless as a sample size. 1 extra hit in there jumps his BA from .154 to .230. 2 extra hits puts him at .308. 16 PAs show literally nothing about his ability to hit lefties. For his MLB career he has 117 PAs against lefties. He has a .707 OPS against them. Definitely nothing to write home about, but when compared to his career .738 OPS against righties it sure doesn't look like he is "a much better hitter against right-handed hitters." (<FYI, you have a typo in the article @Cody Schoenmann when you said hitters there you meant pitchers) If you have to pinch hit for someone in the top 4 of your lineup, they shouldn't be in the top 4 of your lineup. I'd actually prefer a top 5 that is "platoon proof," but let's just get to 4 guys and go from there. Stop pinch hitting for your hoped for stars.

Thank you for letting me know! I just corrected it. When discussing Kirilloff's career OPS versus right-handed pitcher and left-handed pitchers, I believe that a lot of those numbers, especially his career OPS of .738 against RHP, are construed by Kirilloff constantly battling injuries from 2021-2022. I think Kirilloff's numbers this year, especially his OPS versus RHP, are a more accurate indicator of the player he truly is as he is finally healthy. Nonetheless, I appreciate your insight and, although you didn't directly say this, I agree that Kirilloff should be "platoon proof." Also, I think Julien and Lewis should be "platoon proof" as well, but I don't see that happening very soon unfortunately. 

[Rik19753]

I feel like Rocco and the front office are often overdoing things when it comes to platoons, especially in pinch-hit situations. Pinch hitters historically perform below their talent level, so pretty much the only situation where you can analytically justify using a pinch hitter is when you are replacing a really bad hitter with a really good hitter. When it comes to the Twins, it seems like they mostly replace good hitters in a bad matchup with average hitters that have platoon advantages, and I don't think that's doing the team any good.

[chpettit19]

3 minutes ago, Cody Schoenmann said:

Thank you for letting me know! I just corrected it. When discussing Kirilloff's career OPS versus right-handed pitcher and left-handed pitchers, I believe that a lot of those numbers, especially his career OPS of .738 against RHP, are construed by Kirilloff constantly battling injuries from 2021-2022. I think Kirilloff's numbers this year, especially his OPS versus RHP, are a more accurate indicator of the player he truly is as he is finally healthy. Nonetheless, I appreciate your insight and, although you didn't directly say this, I agree that Kirilloff should be "platoon proof." Also, I think Julien and Lewis should be "platoon proof" as well, but I don't see that happening very soon unfortunately. 

Oh, I don't think his .738 OPS against righties is indicative of who he is as a hitter, I just think the proximity of his OPS against lefties shows that there's not this big discrepancy in his ability against lefties and righties. He was hurt while facing both handedness pitchers, and performed so closely against both that I don't get why the Twins feel they need to platoon him at all (outside of a little extra rest for his wrist). I just don't put any weight at all on his 16 PAs against lefties this year. I'll take the lack of platoon splits over the much larger sample size over a sample size that can have his BA swing 200 points with just 3 hits.

I'd guess the Twins argument for platooning the young guys is to put them in the most advantageous positions as possible early to get them comfortable, and their confidence high. But I'd rather them get ABs and work to fix holes in their games that become present by seeing how pitchers attack them. I don't expect to see them change soon, either, though. There's literally no non-injury excuse I'd accept for pinch hitting Kepler for Lewis. I'd let some TD posters hit over Kepler at this point!

[Schmoeman5]

Most of the best 1st baseman are sweet swinging left handed hitters.  Grace Mattingly Clark McGriff. I can list more. I don't remember them being platooned when they were facing the Tom Glavines or Randy Johnsons of their time. I'm pretty sure that wouldn't go over well. If Kiriloff is the hitter they think he is then run him out there 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

Not knowing enough of the health and strength of Kiriloff, the platoon may be an easy way of giving him days off when needed.  This is made easier with Solano's success vs. LH.

I suspect we will see him get more at-bats vs LH as time goes on, but right now this is one of the few things that is going right on offense this year.  Not sure they want to rock the boat.

[Schmoeman5]

6 minutes ago, Schmoeman5 said:

Most of the best 1st baseman are sweet swinging left handed hitters.  Grace Mattingly Clark McGriff. I can list more. I don't remember them being platooned when they were facing the Tom Glavines or Randy Johnsons of their time. I'm pretty sure that wouldn't go over well. If Kiriloff is the hitter they think he is then run him out there 

And just to follow up. When Milwaukee started Burnes the other night it was a right handed heavy lineup because Burnes has reverse splits. I get it. But is the manager basing his decisions on what the hitters do or what the pitchers do in situations. It seems like they want to manipulate these to justifiy the moves

[Cody Schoenmann]

26 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Oh, I don't think his .738 OPS against righties is indicative of who he is as a hitter, I just think the proximity of his OPS against lefties shows that there's not this big discrepancy in his ability against lefties and righties. He was hurt while facing both handedness pitchers, and performed so closely against both that I don't get why the Twins feel they need to platoon him at all (outside of a little extra rest for his wrist). I just don't put any weight at all on his 16 PAs against lefties this year. I'll take the lack of platoon splits over the much larger sample size over a sample size that can have his BA swing 200 points with just 3 hits.

I'd guess the Twins argument for platooning the young guys is to put them in the most advantageous positions as possible early to get them comfortable, and their confidence high. But I'd rather them get ABs and work to fix holes in their games that become present by seeing how pitchers attack them. I don't expect to see them change soon, either, though. There's literally no non-injury excuse I'd accept for pinch hitting Kepler for Lewis. I'd let some TD posters hit over Kepler at this point!

Okay, I see. I agree with you that the proximity of his OPS against lefties shows that there isn't much of a discrepancy versus his ability against right-handed pitchers. There isn't a large enough sample size to make any rational judgments, and in my article I said that it could be seen as ignorant to make any real judgments off of just 16 PAs. 

When discussing the argument for platooning young guys, I think with Kirilloff in particular the reason they have him in a platoon role is so he can have off days to rest his wrist, and having those off days be when they face LHP makes the most sense. Although this is likely the case, then why do they pinch-hit for him when a LH reliever comes in? That is where I am struggling to agree with their philosophy and overall process. I agree that Kirilloff and Lewis need ABs to work on fixing holes they have when they face same-handed pitchers, but, to be honest, I think Julien is already a very good hitter against LHP, and Kirilloff can be if given a real opportunity.  

Edited June 15, 2023 by Cody Schoenmann

[Cody Schoenmann]

13 minutes ago, Schmoeman5 said:

Most of the best 1st baseman are sweet swinging left handed hitters.  Grace Mattingly Clark McGriff. I can list more. I don't remember them being platooned when they were facing the Tom Glavines or Randy Johnsons of their time. I'm pretty sure that wouldn't go over well. If Kiriloff is the hitter they think he is then run him out there 

In the latest Gleeman and the Geek episode, Gleeman talked about how Morneau was worse against LHP, but he wasn't platooned for. Now, that is likely due to Gardenhire not knowing what a platoon was, but it adds to your point of how great left-handed hitters, which Kirilloff could become, don't need to get benched against LHP.

[ashbury]

Everyday players are extremely valuable, and the "sample size" for Kirilloff this year is still pretty small, so I like the idea of giving him a chance to establish himself as a better option against lefties than other alternatives who bat from either side. 

Injuries have made his raw stats pretty chancy to interpret, but back when he was a hot young prospect in the minors his L/R splits weren't alarming at all. Then again the lefties he faced in the minors could have been sprinkled with "prospect" pitchers whose best credential was merely throwing left-handed, and in the majors those types are (mostly) weeded out.

[Mike Sixel]

Ben

1:52

The Twins continue to bench or pinch hit Alex Kirilloff against LH ... He's never had poor splits and has probably been the best bat on the roster all year. Kyle Garlick doesnt deserve ABs over him due to splits. Any idea what they are doing ???

Keith Law

1:52

It's disappointing - he's old enough now to just let him play every day.

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

I'm a fan of platooning certain players, but not the guys you expect/hope to be your stars. If Kirilloff, or Julien, can't hit lefties, they aren't stars. 16 PAs are completely useless as a sample size. 1 extra hit in there jumps his BA from .154 to .230. 2 extra hits puts him at .308. 16 PAs show literally nothing about his ability to hit lefties. For his MLB career he has 117 PAs against lefties. He has a .707 OPS against them. Definitely nothing to write home about, but when compared to his career .738 OPS against righties it sure doesn't look like he is "a much better hitter against right-handed pitchers." If you have to pinch hit for someone in the top 4 of your lineup, they shouldn't be in the top 4 of your lineup. I'd actually prefer a top 5 that is "platoon proof," but let's just get to 4 guys and go from there. Stop pinch hitting for your hoped for stars.

This.

[Cody Schoenmann]

3 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Ben

1:52

The Twins continue to bench or pinch hit Alex Kirilloff against LH ... He's never had poor splits and has probably been the best bat on the roster all year. Kyle Garlick doesnt deserve ABs over him due to splits. Any idea what they are doing ???

Keith Law

1:52

It's disappointing - he's old enough now to just let him play every day.

Was this on The Athletic Baseball Podcast?

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, Cody Schoenmann said:

Was this on The Athletic Baseball Podcast?

No. His personal site.

[weneedneshek]

Kirilloff is starting tonight against a lefty so that is a great sign

[Cody Schoenmann]

1 minute ago, weneedneshek said:

Kirilloff is starting tonight against a lefty so that is a great sign

Just saw that! He's batting third too, which is promising. Very timely article lol

[mnfireman]

Maybe not start him against every lefty, but quit pinch hitting for him the 4th, 5th or 6th innings because the other team brought in a lefty because they know Baldelli is pinch hitting for certain guys. It weakens the late inning defense (Solano is not good) and most teams 8th and 9th inning guys are right handed.

[Cody Schoenmann]

6 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

No. His personal site.

Thanks for letting me know. I'm going to go check it out!

[Mike Sixel]

2 minutes ago, Cody Schoenmann said:

Thanks for letting me know. I'm going to go check it out!

Pretty sure that was the lone Twins' comment....I tried to ask about Kepler, but joined late.

[Cody Schoenmann]

11 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Pretty sure that was the lone Twins' comment....I tried to ask about Kepler, but joined late.

Yeah, I think it is too. What did you ask about Kepler?

[Mike Sixel]

3 minutes ago, Cody Schoenmann said:

Yeah, I think it is too. What did you ask about Kepler?

Him or Wallner (or Larnach) in RF going forward, but I typed it as he was signing off. Damn weeding ....

[Cody Schoenmann]

2 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Him or Wallner (or Larnach) in RF going forward, but I typed it as he was signing off. Damn weeding ....

I feel like his answer would be Larnach. What do you think?

[Riverbrian]

Do you want Kirilloff to be a platoon player or do you want Kirilloff to be a hitter. Should Juan Soto sit against Left Handed Pitchers. I know that Kirilloff isn't Soto... but you can make sure that his ceiling is Joc Pederson.

Should Arraez sit against left handers? Never mind on Arraez... the Twins did sit him against lefties last year. It's the Marlins that stopped doing that.   

Kirilloff is just getting started in his career... you can help him be what you want him to be. Or you can just starting building the walls that contain him right now. Your choice. 

Why on earth would you purposely starve him of opportunity to face lefthanders. Why would you commit to keeping him out of the lineup 25% of the time? 

In the end... the monster you get is the monster you made. 

Stop this crap immediately... He is currently the best hitter on your roster. Put him in the lineup against lefties. 

BTW

Let's take a look at Ryan Jeffers: 

2023 OPS against RH Pitchers - .804

2023 OPS against LH Pitchers - .647

2022 OPS Against RH Pitchers - .540

2022 OPS against LH PItchers - .909 

What happened to Ryan Jeffers? Do we have a dog chasing his tail here? 

Kirilloff is our best hitter!!!