Do you believe in these Twins?

[LA Vikes Fan]

This Twins team has the feel of an 84-86 win group. I voted for "make the postseason" because I think 85 wins will win the AL Central. I don't think Maeda will come to rescue the rescue - I think he'll replace Varland in the rotation. Varland has looked bad the last 2 starts, has a 4.70 ERA, and is on the cusp of pitching his way back to AAA. I see them breaking in Lewis and Kirilloff as every day starters, and have hope that they will find a way to get Julien into the lineup most days (I'm beginning to think Polanco"s leg issues may be chronic and he may fight for DH ABs, hope Buxton can play OF). My prediction is that Wallner will not get a long run this year unless someone has a season ending injury, and that Kepler and Pagan will both be on the roster in September, and we won't trade for a bullpen piece other than a mid inning type. I think this is the group they are going to ride with for the season. And this group is a slightly better than .500 club overall. 

I predicted 88-74 at the start of the season. If the rules allow me to revise my prediction, I would revise it to 85-77 - good enough to win the AL Central by 2 games over Chicago and Cleveland. First round series against Baltimore or Houston, lose the series 2-1. 

By the way, if the team were to so what I think they should do I think the variability would go way up - higher upside, higher downside.  Those things are - DFA/trade Kepler and Pagan, send Larnach to AAA. Play Lewis, Kirilloff, and Julien 5 days a week. Put Maeda in the bullpen to replace Pagan (adjust his contract), Gallo replaces Kepler, Julien replaces Larnach. Typical lineup - Julien (2B/DH), Lewis (3B), Kirilloff (1B), Buxton (CF/LF), Correa (SS), Polanco (2B/DH), Gallo (RF), Jeffers/Vasquez (C),  Castro/MAT(LF/CF).  Bench - Solano (earned it with his hitting),  MAT/Castro, Farmer, backup catcher.  First man up from AAA - Wallner, Larnach, Miranda. IF we want Wallner up and can find him a spot to play, Solano gets traded. I just don't see a spot for him to play if we keep Gallo or Kepler and want to play Julien. I think Julien is the guy who rates the longer look right now.      

[TwinsDr2021]

To add to my above comment, I have seen enough of Larnach as well. I would bring up Lee and put either him or Lewis in left field, can it worse than Larnach, I highly doubt it. I was a big fan of the Larnach draft pick and a fan of him, but what has he done the last 3 years that screams he is a starter on a competitive team. He starts out good enough but gets worse as the season goes.  Trade him while he still has some value and if he figures it out with another team, great for him,

[LA Vikes Fan]

I tend to agree with you on Larnach. He needs to go to a team that isn't contending where he will play every day and maybe figure it out. Right now he looks like a guy who will hit .220 with 20 HRs and a 33% SO rate. I wonder if we could get a solid controllable relief pitcher from Oakland, Colorado, Washington or the Cubs for him? I would include KC but I don't want him in the division in case he does figure it out. I think it's more likely he stays because there will be openings in the corner OF spots next year when Gallo and Kepler likely are not on the Twins. 

[Muppet]

This team could just as easily pick it up and start tearing down the stretch, or keep slumping and end up in 4th place ahead of the Royals. On paper they have a lot of what it takes. I wouldn't be surprised to see Larnach, Miranda, Vazquez, Correa, etc turn it around and start to make us forget May. They have played better against good teams this year than in years past. They beat the Yankees, beat Kershaw, the Astros, and Blue Jays. My biggest complaint in years past was that they could only win against teams worse then them. This year it seems to be the opposite. If they can start dominating the bad teams, they'll go far. 

[Vanimal46]

There’s 3.5 months left to change my opinion several more times. As things stand on June 12th, I do not believe in this team. 

I feel like a broken record at this point. There is not enough offense on the roster to give me confidence. Even if everyone was healthy, there isn’t enough offense. 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

They will make the playoffs . . .  why,  because once they get through the end of June they essentially only play .500 clubs or below the rest of the season.  You will be going against a bunch of teams that will be trading precious depth away and we should remain deep in the starting rotation.   We have 6-7 capable starting arms for starting pitching.  Below is the strength of schedule for the remainder of the year and we are ranked 30th meaning we have the easiest schedule of any other team meaning we have been extremely front loaded difficulty wise to start the year.  

http://powerrankingsguru.com/mlb/strength-of-schedule.php

Now the real question is what about the bullpen and bats.  Bullpen I think 1 more solid arm would drastically improve the team,  which shouldn't be costly (which should allow us to drop pagan).  As to the bats,  they will improve,  how much I don't know.  Correa historically heats up in the summer and we are already starting to see that.  He is at a War of 1.0.  I fully expect him to at least get to 3.5 War or better by the end of the year.  Lewis,  shows he belongs,  those 2 bats will bring consistency.  Buxton,  performs better when out in the field,  sooner or later I expect the Twins to take the cuffs off.  When . .   I am not sure.  He is still too much swing and miss.  Gallo will love the end of the season because he excels against bad pitching and we will be facing a lot of it the rest of the season.   Gallo is very much a complimentary piece and not a whole lot more.  I am hoping by some chance he goes off and and someone pays him quite well at the end of the season and we get a comp pick for him.  Then we need 1 or more of Larnach, Kiriloff or Miranda to become above average bats.  I think the odds of that is actually very good, and if 2 become above average,  then we will enjoy the rest of the season.   

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

To add to my above comment, I have seen enough of Larnach as well. I would bring up Lee and put either him or Lewis in left field, can it worse than Larnach, I highly doubt it. I was a big fan of the Larnach draft pick and a fan of him, but what has he done the last 3 years that screams he is a starter on a competitive team. He starts out good enough but gets worse as the season goes.  Trade him while he still has some value and if he figures it out with another team, great for him,

Lee is not at all ready for the majors. He's hitting .262 with a .765 OPS in AA. Calling him up to the bigs is not an option.

[JD-TWINS]

2 hours ago, CRF said:

I really like this take, and I sure hope this is the way it all goes down. 

Kepler singles & homers Saturday & Wallner went 0-5 & struck out 3 times. Max keeps hanging on due to unclear circumstances with him, his competition, other’s health, etc. - would like to see them DFA Kepler & move on with Larnach/Wallner in RF…….maybe a little Castro v. LH pitching?

Sunday’s loss separates them from a first place type team with momentum, headed into a 10 game home stand, compared to a lost team that can’t get things rolling.

Kepler & especially Pagan - DFA!!

[SwainZag]

I really don't think we will truly now what kind of team this is until near the trade deadline.  The Twins open the 2nd half with 19 games in a row with teams currently under .500, and the 2nd half of the schedule is considerably easier than the 1st.  

[August J Gloop]

The Twins ceiling is World Series. Reaching that ceiling will require some luck, some general health and fewer mistakes.  

[Unwinder]

1 hour ago, IA Bean Counter said:

We have 6-7 capable starting arms for starting pitching.  Below is the strength of schedule for the remainder of the year and we are ranked 30th meaning we have the easiest schedule of any other team meaning we have been extremely front loaded difficulty wise to start the year.  

http://powerrankingsguru.com/mlb/strength-of-schedule.php

I did not take this into account, and it's encouraging enough to keep me invested through at least another month of (gestures at Twins) all this.

[Unwinder]

2 hours ago, Muppet said:

My biggest complaint in years past was that they could only win against teams worse then them. This year it seems to be the opposite. If they can start dominating the bad teams, they'll go far. 

Timberwolves' Disease

[TwinsDr2021]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

Lee is not at all ready for the majors. He's hitting .262 with a .765 OPS in AA. Calling him up to the bigs is not an option.

Like I said is that really worse then what we are getting? I think he could watch strike three to end the game with a man on third.

Do we really have to wait until a player is 24 or 25 and absolutely dominating the minors, or do you take a chance on a guy that is suppose to be good, when the other options are Larnach, Kepler and a group of cast offs?

The Cards call up Jordan Walker, younger and about the sames stats in AAA. The Mets called up Alvarez after 19 at bats this year after hitting .277 and .234 in AA  and AAA last years.

[chpettit19]

4 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Like I said is that really worse then what we are getting? I think he could watch strike three to end the game with a man on third.

Do we really have to wait until a player is 24 or 25 and absolutely dominating the minors, or do you take a chance on a guy that is suppose to be good, when the other options are Larnach, Kepler and a group of cast offs?

The Cards call up Jordan Walker, younger and about the sames stats in AAA. The Mets called up Alvarez after 19 at bats this year after hitting .277 and .234 in AA  and AAA last years.

.262 and .765 is not worse than we're getting, but that's 2 levels down for a guy with 83 career professional games under his belt. He wouldn't hit .262 and .765 in the majors. 

Nobody said anything about waiting for him to be 24 or 25, but there's more to development than being the #8 pick, and being a guy who's "supposed to be good." He hasn't even mastered AA, but you want him in the majors. There's an awful lot of area between waiting for him to be 24 or 25 and just blindly calling him up now because we hope he's a good player.

Jordan Walker has a .892 OPS in the minors over 230 games. Yes, he was called up, and started the year with the Cards, where he wasn't good enough and they sent him back down. Francisco Alvarez has a .913 OPS over 257 minor league games. Including 49 AAA games. Brooks Lee has a .793 OPS over 83 minor league games. Those are not good comps. The comp you may want to go with would be Zach Neto, the 13th pick in last year's draft. But he put up a .968 OPS in AA this year before he got called up. Spencer Torkleson is supposed to be good, too. In fact, he's supposed to be better than Lee. He hasn't been good. "Supposed to be good" is not a reason for promoting a young player. They've already shown they'll be aggressive with him as he earns promotions. Let him actually earn it. Calling up a kid who's shown no indication he's ready and crossing your fingers isn't good asset management. And it can set his development back. He's not ready. Let him develop and get ready.

[TwinsDr2021]

2 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

.262 and .765 is not worse than we're getting, but that's 2 levels down for a guy with 83 career professional games under his belt. He wouldn't hit .262 and .765 in the majors. 

Nobody said anything about waiting for him to be 24 or 25, but there's more to development than being the #8 pick, and being a guy who's "supposed to be good." He hasn't even mastered AA, but you want him in the majors. There's an awful lot of area between waiting for him to be 24 or 25 and just blindly calling him up now because we hope he's a good player.

Jordan Walker has a .892 OPS in the minors over 230 games. Yes, he was called up, and started the year with the Cards, where he wasn't good enough and they sent him back down. Francisco Alvarez has a .913 OPS over 257 minor league games. Including 49 AAA games. Brooks Lee has a .793 OPS over 83 minor league games. Those are not good comps. The comp you may want to go with would be Zach Neto, the 13th pick in last year's draft. But he put up a .968 OPS in AA this year before he got called up. Spencer Torkleson is supposed to be good, too. In fact, he's supposed to be better than Lee. He hasn't been good. "Supposed to be good" is not a reason for promoting a young player. They've already shown they'll be aggressive with him as he earns promotions. Let him actually earn it. Calling up a kid who's shown no indication he's ready and crossing your fingers isn't good asset management. And it can set his development back. He's not ready. Let him develop and get ready.

I wish there was somebody else (and my head says you are correct on Lee) to say should be in Left.

I am so sick of watching Garlick (.179), Larnach (.208) and Gallo (.188) play left field that I am willing to give you a chance out there over them. 😀

[chpettit19]

5 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

I wish there was somebody else (and my head says you are correct on Lee) to say should be in Left.

I am so sick of watching Garlick (.179), Larnach (.208) and Gallo (.188) play left field that I am willing to give you a chance out there over them. 😀

I don't disagree. My best hope right now is that Gallo was slumping because he was hurt, and he comes back and hits .220 with power, walks, and great defense. I've never liked Garlick, and have literally no idea why he's ever on the team. And Larnach was someone I had great hope in, but looks to be overmatched in the bigs. May help if he'd swing at the first pitch fastballs down the middle, though.

[MABB1959]

The Twins have only one player on the MLB AllStar leaders and that is Joey Gallo 9th of 10 on first base.  How can that be a play-off bound team.  And I do realize it is more of a popularity vote, but no Buxton or Correa or Polanco?

[2wins87]

In this division, you better believe they can make the playoffs.  They've had a pretty bad stretch of baseball and are still the favorites for the division.

Once they are in the playoffs, any team can get hot and make the world series.

But beyond the "anything can happen" logic, sure they are a team that still has a lot of potential. 

The rotation has continued to be great, and they would only need to go 4 deep in the playoffs, and if the current top 4 are healthy for the playoffs they should have a shot against any other team.

They've also got the best closer we've seen since Nathan.  I think we are still figuring out the set up pecking order, but Stewart looks fantastic, and with Jax, Moran, Thielbar, Lopez, maybe De Leon -- they've got a chance of a few more guys taking the step to be the next set of lockdown guys they need.  Has there been a Twins playoff team that really had a better bullpen than this one could?

So then of course we get to the offense.  I'm not going to say it's been good, but I haven't totally given up on it.  They need Correa to get to the point where he could carry the team again.  They need Buxton to be healthy and having a hot streak.  They probably need Polanco to get healthy again.  And they'll need a few more guys to step up.  I'm looking at Kirilloff who's been steady but needs to get to a bit more power, maybe Lewis who will need to be a bit more disciplined, and then they will probably have to have someone step up in a corner outfield spot - be that Larnach, Wallner, or even Julien.  I think there will be some holes in the lineup, but I can still see a solid top 6 probably?

I still see the offense probably bein the weak link heading into the playoffs, but I don't think it will necessarily be bad.  Should they be favored to even win one playoff series? Probably not.  But I still see a team with the pieces to maybe go on a run, and a team that really shouldn't be looking as overmatched as they did against the Rays.

[2wins87]

4 minutes ago, MABB1959 said:

The Twins have only one player on the MLB AllStar leaders and that is Joey Gallo 9th of 10 on first base.  How can that be a play-off bound team.  And I do realize it is more of a popularity vote, but no Buxton or Correa or Polanco?

By having probably 3 starting pitchers and 2 relievers deserving of the All Star roster?

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

The Cards call up Jordan Walker, younger and about the sames stats in AAA. The Mets called up Alvarez after 19 at bats this year after hitting .277 and .234 in AA  and AAA last years.

Not a very close comp, exactly because he's "younger" as you point out.  Age matters and Walker was achieving better numbers at AA at a younger age than Lee, and was holding his own at AAA this year at age 21, after being sent down for a while to polish up some things on defense reportedly.  The learning curve for a super-talented youngster can be very rapid.  Lee is no graybeard and he's coming along too, but it's getting a bit out over our skis to bring him up now.

[TwinsDr2021]

8 minutes ago, 2wins87 said:

By having probably 3 starting pitchers and 2 relievers deserving of the All Star roster?

The Twins have 3 starting pitchers and 2 relievers deserving of the All Star game?

I get Ryan, and while I don't think Gray is deserving (I think he is the 9th or 10th best starter in the American league) I concede his could be, But who is the third? Duran seem like a give, and I get Stewart is having a good year so far he has blown 2 of his 7 save/hold attempts, so I am not ready to say he deserves it yet.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

As Michael Jordan said to the UNC football team at a recognition ceremony for the football team: "The ceiling is the roof."

[1991]

The Twins should be able to tinker with the roster enough to remain in the division race.  They currently are tied for 8th in the AL in wins.  Don't see them making a big run in the playoffs, but you never know.  I just don't want them making bonehead deadline moves in the hopes of a WS championship.  The trades with Baltimore and Cincinnati last year seem lopsided to the negative right now.

[2wins87]

58 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

The Twins have 3 starting pitchers and 2 relievers deserving of the All Star game?

I get Ryan, and while I don't think Gray is deserving (I think he is the 9th or 10th best starter in the American league) I concede his could be, But who is the third? Duran seem like a give, and I get Stewart is having a good year so far he has blown 2 of his 7 save/hold attempts, so I am not ready to say he deserves it yet.

Ober is my third, who has a better ERA than Ryan and more IP per start than Sonny Gray.

I'm not saying they should all get in but that they all could be deserving. 

All of them are overperforming at least some of their peripherals, though none of them have bad peripherals either.  Stewart is definitely the biggest overperformer, but then again he has an 0.90 ERA.

[TwinsDr2021]

22 minutes ago, 2wins87 said:

Ober is my third, who has a better ERA than Ryan and more IP per start than Sonny Gray.

I'm not saying they should all get in but that they all could be deserving. 

All of them are overperforming at least some of their peripherals, though none of them have bad peripherals either.  Stewart is definitely the biggest overperformer, but then again he has an 0.90 ERA.

Ober has been great, but he isn't even in the top 50 in the American league in innings, so I wouldn't personally consider him unless he was like 7 - 1 with an era under 2.

[cHawk]

1 hour ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

The Twins have 3 starting pitchers and 2 relievers deserving of the All Star game?

I get Ryan, and while I don't think Gray is deserving (I think he is the 9th or 10th best starter in the American league) I concede his could be, But who is the third? Duran seem like a give, and I get Stewart is having a good year so far he has blown 2 of his 7 save/hold attempts, so I am not ready to say he deserves it yet.

I think you’re underrating Gray. In the American League, he individually ranks per Fangraphs:

 •  3rd in pitching WAR
 •  3rd in ERA
 •  5th in WPA

Based on these statistics, I think he deserves to be an all-star.

[TaterTot]

Cross fingers, hope they make it to the playoffs, but considering this team has the longest postseason losing streak in all of North American sports it would be real grand if they won a game. Setting the bar pretty low.

[Nine of twelve]

On 6/11/2023 at 10:29 PM, tony&rodney said:

The ceiling is always the World Series because it can happen.

I chose World Series appearance because it was the only correct answer. Had the poll included World Championship (or "Other", I suppose) I would have chosen that. Had the question been "How do I think the Twins will do this year?" I would have answered differently.

[TwinsDr2021]

14 hours ago, cHawk said:

I think you’re underrating Gray. In the American League, he individually ranks per Fangraphs:

 •  3rd in pitching WAR
 •  3rd in ERA
 •  5th in WPA

Based on these statistics, I think he deserves to be an all-star.

and he is 24th in the American league in innings, he is tied for 25th in the American innings in quality starts, tied with Varland and 1 a head of Ober with 4 more starts. In the Month of May he completed more than 5 1/3 innings once and that was for 6 innings in 5 starts. The team has lost 5 of his last 7 starts. He has completed 7 innings twice this year and the last time was April 24. None of those numbers scream all star to me, With all that said he will probably make the all star team, but IMO someone that completes only 5 innings in more than half of his starts isn't all star worthy.

In the American league he has the lowest innings pitched for ERA in the top 15 minus two guys who have less starts than him.

As for WAR it makes no sense for pitchers. Eovaldi has the same amount of starts, 5 more wins, 14.66 more innings. and a lower whip but Gray has a higher WAR? How does that even happen?

 

[cHawk]

1 hour ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

As for WAR it makes no sense for pitchers. Eovaldi has the same amount of starts, 5 more wins, 14.66 more innings. and a lower whip but Gray has a higher WAR? How does that even happen?

Per Fangraphs, Eovaldi actually has a higher WAR (2.7) than Gray (2.5)