Twins have the lowest team batting average in MLB

[sun]

As of today, the Twins have the lowest team batting average in MLB. It's .220 and the 2nd lowest is Cleveland at .223. Most teams are way above the Twins. https://www.mlb.com/stats/team/runs

[Rosterman]

Didn't think they were that bad, but - wow. Tied for last in stolen bases. third for msot strikeouts by batters. 18th for walks. 9th for homers.

[stringer bell]

Don’t want to minimize how bad the hitting has been, but somehow the Twins rank in the middle of the pack (14th) in runs scored, which IMHO is the most important statistic. 

[Aerodeliria]

I am more concerned about the fielding and mental errors. We have arguably lost three series (Boston, Cleveland, Chicago) due to basically coughing up the lead late due to fielding/mental errors during one of the games, and for two other games, our fielding miscues have let the game get out of hand. This is the 3rd year in a row that I have been complaining about this. (Of course, over a season, errors are going to occur, but good teams aren't going to lose more than a couple of games due to miscues. Also, it is not only the errors, but when they occur. To me, this indicates a lack of focus at key moments.)

[mrtwinsfan]

4 hours ago, sun said:

As of today, the Twins have the lowest team batting average in MLB. It's .220 and the 2nd lowest is Cleveland at .223. Most teams are way above the Twins. https://www.mlb.com/stats/team/runs

Also in last place with base hits, 

[Doctor Wu]

9 hours ago, stringer bell said:

Don’t want to minimize how bad the hitting has been, but somehow the Twins rank in the middle of the pack (14th) in runs scored, which IMHO is the most important statistic. 

That stat surprises me, but thanks for pointing it out. I guess that's somewhat of a silver lining, but man, I sure wish the hits would start dropping more often, and have more of these stranded runners start scoring. 

[stringer bell]

7 minutes ago, Doctor Wu said:

That stat surprises me, but thanks for pointing it out. I guess that's somewhat of a silver lining, but man, I sure wish the hits would start dropping more often, and have more of these stranded runners start scoring. 

I would think with the Twins' low OBP number and (relatively) high runs scored standing, that their number of runners left on base would be pretty low. I think every fan think their team leaves too many men on base. I googled LOB and this is what I found. Apparently, the Twins are second-best at not leaving runners on base.

https://www.teamrankings.com/mlb/stat/left-on-base-per-game

[Doctor Wu]

2 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

I would think with the Twins' low OBP number and (relatively) high runs scored standing, that their number of runners left on base would be pretty low. I think every fan think their team leaves too many men on base. I googled LOB and this is what I found. Apparently, the Twins are second-best at not leaving runners on base.

https://www.teamrankings.com/mlb/stat/left-on-base-per-game

Thanks for digging up that stat too. Once again, I'm very surprised!

[stringer bell]

Yes, regression to the mean is a double-edged sword when it comes to the Twins "offense" right now. I think they almost certain to raise their OBP and batting average in the coming months, but I think it is unlikely that they continue to get as high of a percentage of the guys that get on to score. 

Honestly, I'd settle for middle-of-the-pack run scoring if the Twins continue to be among the top three is run suppression. 

[weitz41]

And we have faced only one of the top 10 pitching staffs in WHIP, ERA and batting average against.

[OvertheHill]

9 minutes ago, weitz41 said:

And we have faced only one of the top 10 pitching staffs in WHIP, ERA and batting average against.

This. That's what is making this so hard to watch - clueless ABs against mediocre (or worse) pitching. My fear is that these players are what they are at this point as far as what their "approach" is at the plate. And I see no evidence that the Manager or hitting coach working with anyone on that. I hope I'm wrong, but.....

[John Belinski]

8 hours ago, Aerodeliria said:

I am more concerned about the fielding and mental errors. We have arguably lost three series (Boston, Cleveland, Chicago) due to basically coughing up the lead late due to fielding/mental errors during one of the games, and for two other games, our fielding miscues have let the game get out of hand. This is the 3rd year in a row that I have been complaining about this. (Of course, over a season, errors are going to occur, but good teams aren't going to lose more than a couple of games due to miscues. Also, it is not only the errors, but when they occur. To me, this indicates a lack of focus at key moments.)

I am not sure if it lack of focus or a management problem. A team that continues to make mistakes usually needs better management.

[John Belinski]

35 minutes ago, Doctor Wu said:

Thanks for digging up that stat too. Once again, I'm very surprised!

WOW that is really a surprise. I have seen games where our best hitters have left 4 or 5 runners on base. It is really hard to understand why our top 2 high paid batters are just not hitting.

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, stringer bell said:

I would think with the Twins' low OBP number and (relatively) high runs scored standing, that their number of runners left on base would be pretty low. I think every fan think their team leaves too many men on base. I googled LOB and this is what I found. Apparently, the Twins are second-best at not leaving runners on base.

https://www.teamrankings.com/mlb/stat/left-on-base-per-game

Twins had been top 2 or 3 for BAwRISP for much of the first month. They're down to 10th now. Such a weird team.

[stringer bell]

Comparatively high hitting with RiSP and hitting lots of multi-run homers have hidden how poor the offense has been overall this spring. The run scoring was poor on the road trip because they stopped hitting with runners in scoring position, or you could say they regressed toward the mean in that particular aspect. When the team is hitting .220 with a .300 OBP, they have to get a lot of those 30% that get on to score to be any kind of competitive. If they continue to hit .220 for another month, they'll probably be last in runs scored, as well. 

I don't think that will happen, but something needs to change. Maybe it's Alex Kirilloff, maybe it's Correa, maybe it's known streaky players like Gallo, Buxton or Kepler, but more offense needs to be generated. 

[gman]

When they sent Larnach down for not hitting, I was kind of wondering why they didn't send the rest of the team down as well. I didn't think they were facing mediocre pitching, I thought everyone they were hitting against were contending for Cy Young awards. Nearly 40 games into the year and I think they've shown us who they are. Waste of a lot of good pitching.

[JD-TWINS]

47 minutes ago, John Belinski said:

WOW that is really a surprise. I have seen games where our best hitters have left 4 or 5 runners on base. It is really hard to understand why our top 2 high paid batters are just not hitting.

Correa & who else?

Buxton is hitting 5 points under his career average (that’s one hit difference at this point in season) & his OBP is 30 points higher. Slugging % & OPS are both exceptional and much higher than his career averages.

Kiriloff - Polanco - Buxton - Kepler - Correa are the offensive core - which, at this point, isn’t very optimistic. Gallo & Vazquez could use a couple to fall in somewhere to get them going in the right direction. If either Larnach or Gordon or Miranda could get back to normal it would be really helpful!

Lewis could play for 2 1/2 months and be the team MVP (no pressure).

[dex8425]

9th in the majors in home runs is good, and 16th in runs scored is passable, though not good.  Twins have a lot of high slugging, low contact guys in the lineup. 2nd to last in majors in OBP too. We don't walk. 

[arby58]

11 hours ago, stringer bell said:

Don’t want to minimize how bad the hitting has been, but somehow the Twins rank in the middle of the pack (14th) in runs scored, which IMHO is the most important statistic. 

Agreed - and some of it is just the 'math' of what it takes to generally produce a run. If you hit three singles, it MIGHT get you one run. If you hit a home run, obviously, that's a run. A single and a double - depends on the order of the two. A triple and a single, either way, is going to nearly always get you a run. That's why OPS is a far better offensive statistic than batting average. So, using OPS, the Twins are 10th in the AL - and the Guardians are dead last. It's still not great, but it's far better than being last.

[2wins87]

10 hours ago, stringer bell said:

Don’t want to minimize how bad the hitting has been, but somehow the Twins rank in the middle of the pack (14th) in runs scored, which IMHO is the most important statistic. 

#9 in HR, and those are pretty important for scoring runs.

Fangraphs has their expected runs per game at 4.29 projected via "BaseRuns" vs 4.34 actual, so the runs scored does match up pretty well with the overall offensive output.

So overall their offense has been ok when you consider the power at the same time as the low OBP. Have they been unlucky in other ways so far?  They do have the second lowest BABIP but also the second highest flyball rate, so the BABIP is not exactly fluky. Their xBA from baseball savant is .231 vs .220 actual.  And their xWOBA is .316 vs .304 actual.

So they've been a mediocre offense that has basically scored about as expected based on their batted ball outcomes, and have probably had a slightly bad luck on their outcomes based on their quality of contact.

[ashbury]

13 hours ago, sun said:

As of today, the Twins have the lowest team batting average in MLB.

8 hours ago, mrtwinsfan said:

Also in last place with base hits, 

It's possible there is a correlation.

Kidding aside, it's a combination of factors of putridness.  They are third-worst in strikeout percentage at 25.7%. When they do put the ball in play, their batting average (BABIP) at .268 is one tick away from being the worst in the majors.  Not putting the ball in play enough, and not being effective when you do, can tend to shape your season.

Weighing against this misery, as Stringer pointed out, when they do make contact, it's for extra bases.  Their Isolated Power, basically slugging minus batting average, is a bit above MLB average, though not up there with the Rays.  And their walk rate is slightly above average also.  These factors help lift their derived stats like OPS that try to summarize overall offense.

They are above average in line-drive percentage and hard-hit percentage - continually hitting the ball hard but right at somebody tends to even out, over the course of a season, leading to a better BABIP.

The other thing I gleaned from the b-r.com advanced stats page is they are extremely pull-happy.  Imagine a batting order filled with Brian Doziers, able to capitalize on pitchers who aren't "on" that particular day but otherwise eating out of the pitcher's hand.

Many of us were concerned that the offense was a little light for a serious post-season run.  I don't think there were many who predicted a MLB-worst BA though.  If I were coach (ha!) I'd start with a more varied strategy, probably focusing on two-strike tactics.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

2 hours ago, Doctor Wu said:

That stat surprises me, but thanks for pointing it out. I guess that's somewhat of a silver lining, but man, I sure wish the hits would start dropping more often, and have more of these stranded runners start scoring. 

I wish the Twins would sacrifice bunt more, especially if they are not going to get many hits. Move the runners along. Hit behind the runner. Hit the ball to the opposite field. Take walks. Use any way possible to move the runners along. Polanco being back has been a boost to the Twins' hitting. Polo is a key to this team. Correa will start hitting any day now. If Kirilloff can hit, that will help too. Lewis is soon going to be competing for time at 3B. Maybe the threat of losing his playing time will increase Miranda's play on offense and defense. If not, maybe Lewis can be a better hitter than Miranda. I'm sure Lewis's fielding will be better than Miranda at 3B. 

[ashbury]

12 hours ago, stringer bell said:

Don’t want to minimize how bad the hitting has been, but somehow the Twins rank in the middle of the pack (14th) in runs scored, which IMHO is the most important statistic. 

Even including the power hitting, stats like OPS+ put them below league average.  It seems like an anomaly to actually manage a league-average rate of run scoring.

Plus, we all know, and laugh, about their futility with the bases loaded.

And yet... could clutch hitting be the explanation anyway?

With bases empty, the Twins' collective OPS is a feeble .632.  With anyone on base, it's .772.  With runners in scoring position, it's a lofty .873.  And yes, that includes bases loaded, which is only 35 out of the 301 plate appearances with a man at least on second (and yes, with bases loaded their OPS is a tragicomic .314).

They haven't had enough base runners to really succeed, but it looks like they've bunched their hits and overachieved.

Shall we give the leadership of Rocco some praise, for this team-wide display of strength of will?  Hip-hip? Hooray?

[tarheeltwinsfan]

6 minutes ago, ashbury said:

It's possible there is a correlation.

Kidding aside, it's a combination of factors of putridness.  They are third-worst in strikeout percentage at 25.7%. When they do put the ball in play, their batting average (BABIP) at .268 is one tick away from being the worst in the majors.  Not putting the ball in play enough, and not being effective when you do, can tend to shape your season.

Weighing against this misery, as Stringer pointed out, when they do make contact, it's for extra bases.  Their Isolated Power, basically slugging minus batting average, is a bit above MLB average, though not up there with the Rays.  And their walk rate is slightly above average also.  These factors help lift their derived stats like OPS that try to summarize overall offense.

They are above average in line-drive percentage and hard-hit percentage - continually hitting the ball hard but right at somebody tends to even out, over the course of a season, leading to a better BABIP.

The other thing I gleaned from the b-r.com advanced stats page is they are extremely pull-happy.  Imagine a batting order filled with Brian Doziers, able to capitalize on pitchers who aren't "on" that particular day but otherwise eating out of the pitcher's hand.

Many of us were concerned that the offense was a little light for a serious post-season run.  I don't think there were many who predicted a MLB-worst BA though.  If I were coach (ha!) I'd start with a more varied strategy, probably focusing on two-strike tactics.

"They are extremely pull-happy." Here's your sign !   Please "Hit'em where they ain't".
.

[CRF]

I wasn't even remotely aware of this, but it doesn't surprise me in the least. 

[Aerodeliria]

14 minutes ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

I wish the Twins would sacrifice bunt more, especially if they are not going to get many hits. Move the runners along. Hit behind the runner. Hit the ball to the opposite field. Take walks. Use any way possible to move the runners along. Polanco being back has been a boost to the Twins' hitting. Polo is a key to this team. Correa will start hitting any day now. If Kirilloff can hit, that will help too. Lewis is soon going to be competing for time at 3B. Maybe the threat of losing his playing time will increase Miranda's play on offense and defense. If not, maybe Lewis can be a better hitter than Miranda. I'm sure Lewis's fielding will be better than Miranda at 3B. 

I really want to see moving the runner up in the extras especially. It's so sad to see K, fly ball, K, and the runner trots back into the dugout without advancing.

[USAFChief]

 

12 hours ago, stringer bell said:

Don’t want to minimize how bad the hitting has been, but somehow the Twins rank in the middle of the pack (14th) in runs scored, which IMHO is the most important statistic. 

Nit pic, but the Twins are 17th in both runs scored and runs/game. 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/

[stringer bell]

7 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Nit pic, but the Twins are 17th in both runs scored and runs/game.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/

Nit pic, but the Twins are 17th in both runs scored and runs/game. 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/

Yes, that was through Saturday, I suppose. The White Sox scored 17 that day and the Brewers scored nine on Monday to pass the Twins. The Astros scored enough to pass the Twins, as well. 

[bighat]

How the Twins front office saw this offense and thought "You know who we need? Joey Gallo!" is just beyond me.

Washed up Michael Wacha and his 5.46 ERA is going to strut into Target Field tonight and no-hit the Twins thru 5, strike out 10 and walk away with an easy win. 

This Twins team is very, very bad offensively and it's been just brutal watching them get stuffed into a locker by extremely hittable pitchers. 

It's been a really bad 2-3 year stretch of baseball, from a fan's perspective. Very few enjoyable moments. 

[USAFChief]

21 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

Yes, that was through Saturday, I suppose. The White Sox scored 17 that day and the Brewers scored nine on Monday to pass the Twins. The Astros scored enough to pass the Twins, as well. 

I think another factor that comes into play is the number of games in which the offense struggles. 

The Twins have scored 3 or fewer runs 17 times this year. It's very difficult to win consistently when you score 3 or fewer runs. They also have another 5 games scoring 4.

I can't find it, but I believe the magic number in MLB is 5. Score 5, and you'll win more often than lose. Score 4, and you'll lose more often than win.

Obviously, 3 or fewer and you're increasingly losing more than winning.

So, long story short, despite a few double digit games, the Twins offense is too consistently weak, scoring too few runs too often.

Their starting pitching has been strong enough to have them slightly above water, and leading the weakest division in MLB, but I believe the offense has to improve or the team will struggle to stay ahead of even the ALC.

And I don't really know where the consistent improvement will come from. Their lineup lacks a middle. Nobody is going to put up a 1.000 OPS.