It Feels Like the Twins and Max Kepler Are Stuck in a "Minnesota Goodbye"

[Lou Hennessy]

Max Kepler has been a solid contributor for the Twins since he became a regular in 2016. He’s even contributing right now. But it’s starting to feel like we’re watching him get the dreaded, drawn-out Minnesota Goodbye. 

Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports

Everyone from Ada to Zumbrota has experienced this phenomenon. As a party or family get-together is starting to wind down, some guests will plant their hands on their knees demonstrably. They’ll make sure to say a key phrase out loud to nobody in particular. 

“Welp, it’s gettin’ to be that time.”
“Better hit the ol’ dusty trail.”
“Well, dear? Whadya say?”

They’ll make their way towards the door, but they will inevitably find themselves unable to actually leave. They start new conversations, get into forgotten stories and exchange pleasantries in an accent that is so quintessentially midwestern that it would make the Coen brothers blush.

Minnesotans know the script. After all, it’s their namesake send-off. It’s the notorious Minnesota Goodbye. And right now, it feels like the Twins are playing the part of gracious host, with Max Kepler being their treasured guest who just will not leave. 

Make no mistake, it’s not like Kepler is being kicked out of the party. The Twins seem happy to give him plenty of playing time as an everyday player based on various factors, from his defensive prowess to a team-wide slow start offensively. And it’s not unreasonable to expect him to bring some value to the table. Since returning from the injured list, his bat has reignited and his defense has been as charming as ever. Kepler was invited to the party for a reason. He’s accrued at least two wins above replacement in six of the last seven seasons, with the lone outlier being the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign. 

But everyone has to leave the party eventually, and for the Twins and Max, it feels like they’ve had a few opportunities to bid adieu already. This past off-season was a perfect opportunity for a clean break. The outfielder still had plenty of value to likely suitors who were looking for a high-floor option at a reasonable cost, and the Twins had a small army of left-handed hitting outfielders that could slide into his seat at the table. The club’s signing of Joey Gallo felt like a telling sign that Kepler would be leaving the party. But as it turned out, that was more like Kepler making his way toward the coat rack, only to be reminded that he and his hosts had more to talk about. 

He continues to hang around the party at Target Field thanks to his strong marks when it comes to whiff rate (86th percentile), strikeout percentage (74th percentile) and barrel percentage (69th percentile). Those are all great features, and represent the good that Kepler can provide. And the Twins will gladly take that for what it’s worth. 

But there are other factors, both in terms of Kepler’s faults and the circumstances that surround the club’s current depth chart, that require the Twins’ attention. 

Since his brilliant 2019 season where he put up a robust .252/.336/.519 clip (122 wRC+), Kepler has maintained mediocre, unexciting numbers. He sports a .220/.312/.393 batting line in that time frame, which is just under league average. While the defensive shift limitations might gift him a few extra hits on ground balls, he’s settled into being a defense-first player with a diminishing walk rate and a newfound, crucial inability to perform outside of low-leverage situations this season (.574 OPS in medium-leverage, .452 OPS in high-leverage). 

The team’s perceived depth continues to improve, with Jorge Polanco already back to with the big league club, Alex Kirilloff knocking on the door of a triumphant return and youngsters such as Royce Lewis, Edouard Julien and possibly Brooks Lee all tabbed to find their way to Target Field at some point this season. As each of these future contributors get planted into a role with the Twins, it will be harder to make time for Kepler. 

That’s partly by design, too. As many Minnesota sports fans know, you can never bank on the promise of top prospects making an immediate impact upon their call up. But you can account for them needing substantial playing time so that the club can take stock in what they have. Maybe that’s the idea behind Kepler’s contract that included multiple affordable option years at the back end. It gives the team flexibility when it’s time to part ways. 

But those options also have an unintended consequence of creating the situation that the Twins and Kepler find themselves in today. The club still likes their speedy outfielder, and I’m sure they’re really happy that he was one of their treasured guests at this shindig. Minnesota’s favorite son, Prince, painted a perfect picture for this situation with one of his most iconic lines.

Life is just a party, and parties weren’t meant to last. 

It might not happen at this very moment, this week, this month, or even this season, but Kepler’s farewell is inevitable. He’s taking his sweet time as he and the Twins scoot towards the door, exchanging pleasantries for the umpteenth time. Make no mistake, the gracious hosts are giving plenty of attention to their continually-departing friend, but they also have an eye on the clock as they passively push him toward the dusty trail. 

What do you think? When do you see Kepler’s time with the Twins ending? Let us know how you feel in the comment section below. 

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[mikelink45]

Nice take - I loved the connection with our MN tradition.  I noticed on the game last night how much the announcers praised Kepler as the best RF we have ever had and how great his defense is.  Maybe that is our way of making sure he knows he was loved when he goes elsewhere.

The biggest factor for the Twins is his contract number.  He was being paid with the thoughts he would improve, but he hasn't and I do not think that they will want to pay him above his value. 

[bloomwcjkl]

Tapper to 2nd. 4-6-3 double play to end the inning.

[Trov]

Kepler will most likely play out this season, unless a team really wants him at trade deadline.  They will not just cut him, but if AK comes up and hits well, Larnach continues to hit and so does Gallo, there just is no room for Kepler in the regular line up, but he is fine enough should anyone struggle or get hurt.  

[tony&rodney]

April might be a little too soon to concoct an obituary for the Twins career of Max Kepler. It is true that the stats for Kepler have not been real hot the past couple of years but that same statement applies to other players in our current lineup as well. Maybe Kepler is gone after this year or even gets traded during the year, but I'm willing to see how Max plays up to the All Star game before reaching for another right fielder.

[OvertheHill]

I'll agree to put away the torches and pitchforks as far as running Max out of town. For now. 

We have ample evidence to confidently know what he is; a plus right fielder, capable in a pinch of playing centerfield, with a decline (but not completely useless) bat. To my knowledge he's carried himself well, not been a negative clubhouse guy, and most casual (?) Twins fans think well of him.

I just don't want to see him batting near the top of the order.

Edited April 28, 2023 by OvertheHill
typo

[chpettit19]

Max has been looking a little rejuvenated since his return from the IL. I don't disagree that this is the classic MN goodbye situation, and I would be absolutely shocked if he's on the roster in 2024. To me, the interesting situation is the trade deadline decision this year. As always, much of that comes down to roster health. But if Kirilloff and Lewis are both back and healthy I could see them trying to flip Kepler for a lottery ticket at the deadline. 

I very much like Kepler hitting down in the order like he was last night. He's been a good hitter since his return from the IL. If he can keep this up in the 7-9 holes of the order he's a useful player. The question is just how much the young guys are able to push him aside by the trade deadline. Will be interesting to see how the summer plays out for Max. I hope he makes it a hard decision for the FO to move on this year, but don't think there's anything he can realistically do to have a spot on the Twins roster come 2024.

[jccracraft]

Once Kirilloff comes up to play 1B, I'd vote to get rid of Taylor, even though he's been decent. Bux should get back to CF soon, and we can then use Kepler, Gallo and Gordon, who all have better upside hitting, as back-ups.

[Original_JB]

 

[Lou Hennessy]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

April might be a little too soon to concoct an obituary for the Twins career of Max Kepler. It is true that the stats for Kepler have not been real hot the past couple of years but that same statement applies to other players in our current lineup as well. Maybe Kepler is gone after this year or even gets traded during the year, but I'm willing to see how Max plays up to the All Star game before reaching for another right fielder.

 

1 hour ago, OvertheHill said:

I'll agree to put away the torches and pitchforks as far as running Max out of town. For now. 

We have ample evidence to confidently know what he is; a plus right fielder, capable in a pinch of playing centerfield, with a decline (but not completely useless) bat. To my knowledge he's carried himself well, not been a negative clubhouse guy, and most casual (?) Twins fans think well of him.

I just don't want to see him batting near the top of the order.

I certainly don't mean to make it sound like Kepler should be run out of town. Like I said, he's been quite solid since coming back from the IL. The point is that he's going to leave this party eventually, even if it isn't in the near future.

 

The product is still totally usable right now, but he's playing with an expiration date that guys like Larnach, Kirilloff and other young players don't have at the moment.

[MMMordabito]

[OvertheHill]

12 minutes ago, Lou Hennessy said:

 

I certainly don't mean to make it sound like Kepler should be run out of town. Like I said, he's been quite solid since coming back from the IL. The point is that he's going to leave this party eventually, even if it isn't in the near future.

 

The product is still totally usable right now, but he's playing with an expiration date that guys like Larnach, Kirilloff and other young players don't have at the moment.

Lou I should have started my post acknowledging that your article was both clever and accurate as far as Keplers value. 
 

All things considered he’s kind of an asset/luxury for the Twins at the moment but as you point out, is going to eventually need to leave the party. Like a lot of people I grew weary of watching pound grounder after grounder into the shift, seemingly unwilling to consider any adjustments. But hey, I saw him take a pitch the way recently! Im not banking on him getting traded, and he’s got too much value to just dump, but there’s a roster jam on the horizon and it’s going to be increasingly difficult to defend him, especially when this little hot (lukewarm?) streak ends. 

[jkcarew]

Well, it's likely he's gone after 2024, at the latest, right? So...what's the earliest he would be gone? Trade deadline 2023. So, we're talking less than a season and a half of 'wondering when'? Not that unusual, I don't think.

For 2023, Kirilloff might not turn out (or hold up)...Gallo could turn back into 2022 Gallo...and or Larnach could hit a wall. (Larnach is not without his own offensive issues...and more obvious defensive issues). As long at the Twins are competing and not POSITIVE of both Gallo and Kirilloff, Kepler stays.

For 2024...even if Kirilloff works out, there's a very good chance Gallo is gone or not good...one or the other. So...

[Twodogs]

10 minutes ago, jkcarew said:

Well, it's likely he's gone after 2024, at the latest, right? So...what's the earliest he would be gone? Trade deadline 2023. So, we're talking less than a season and a half of 'wondering when'? Not that unusual, I don't think.

For 2023, Kirilloff might not turn out (or hold up)...Gallo could turn back into 2022 Gallo...and or Larnach could hit a wall. (Larnach is not without his own offensive issues...and more obvious defensive issues). As long at the Twins are competing and not POSITIVE of both Gallo and Kirilloff, Kepler stays.

For 2024...even if Kirilloff works out, there's a very good chance Gallo is gone or not good...one or the other. So...

Especially Gallo, imagine he has a really good season, he will capitalize on that, most likely elsewhere.

[KirbyDome89]

45 minutes ago, jkcarew said:

(Assuming the Twins are still in the race.)

It's a near impossibility they'll be out of the race in the AL Central by the deadline. 

[Squirrel]

Please stick to the topic. If you want to talk about Taylor, Buxton, Gordon, and anyone not related to Kepler, please start your own thread

[JD-TWINS]

7 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

Nice take - I loved the connection with our MN tradition.  I noticed on the game last night how much the announcers praised Kepler as the best RF we have ever had and how great his defense is.  Maybe that is our way of making sure he knows he was loved when he goes elsewhere.

The biggest factor for the Twins is his contract number.  He was being paid with the thoughts he would improve, but he hasn't and I do not think that they will want to pay him above his value. 

Oliva earned a Gold Glove one year - won some batting titles - in the HOF. My assumption is the reference was strictly limited to defense. Brunansky put up some good numbers for a few years as well.

He’s pretty affordable for the defensive excellence but his ineffectiveness at the plate has made him tough to carry - not really a financial decision but without production, a little production in future for $8-$9M less will be the obvious choice.

[mikelink45]

59 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Oliva earned a Gold Glove one year - won some batting titles - in the HOF. My assumption is the reference was strictly limited to defense. Brunansky put up some good numbers for a few years as well.

He’s pretty affordable for the defensive excellence but his ineffectiveness at the plate has made him tough to carry - not really a financial decision but without production, a little production in future for $8-$9M less will be the obvious choice.

I am not the one saying this.  I only share what the announcers comment. 

[nclahammer]

9 hours ago, jccracraft said:

Once Kirilloff comes up to play 1B, I'd vote to get rid of Taylor, even though he's been decent. Bux should get back to CF soon, and we can then use Kepler, Gallo and Gordon, who all have better upside hitting, as back-ups.

The Minnesota Twins NEED Taylor as insurance in CF.  I'd much rather lose Nick Gordon.

[DocBauer]

Kepler is a great defensive OF. He runs the bases well. He does a lot of things well, we all know this. He's a solid player and I love that, for the most part, they are finally batting him lower in the order. And his $10M due for keeping him next season is not outrageous or a burden.

I fully recognize Max had a good ST and has looked pretty good since he came back from his brief IL stint. And that's great! But the truth is, since his 2019 season, he's been on a downward trend every year. In fact, his combined OPS has been lower than his full seasons pre-2019. I think it's fair to say we all hope he has a good 2023 no matter how things turn out. And losing him, and probably Gallo, after this season gives pause.

But Larnach has been producing, adapting to all the slow stuff he's seeing, Kirilloff may be ready soon, and Wallner is a top 10 prospect having another good season so far at AAA. We can debate about Julien, and Martin, and even Lewis, Celestino, and maybe even someone like Helman, in the OF to one degree or another. But at some point, don't you have to make room for the less expensive, cost controlled, and younger players with talent and potential?

Conceivably, Gallo having a good season, and liking it here, COULD be a re-sign, pretty much costing the combined salary of his 2023 deal and the cost of Kepler. Not saying I see that happening, but I could see it. I can also see Kepler sticking around for 2024 at $10M just to make sure the depth is still there. On top of that, Taylor is a FA as well, I believe. 

Just how prepared...as the season goes along...do the Twins feel about all that young talent while potentially losing 3 veteran OF? That's where I see a roster crunch for this season not being quite as much of a crunch for 2024. I do agree with the premise that Kepler is not long for the Twins. The question remains just exactly HOW LONG based on all of these factors I've mentioned.

It's up to all the younger talent to force the issue. They shouldn't, normally speaking, just be handed a job based solely on projection. But again, at some point, don't you have to trust in that talent and potential to let them perform and potentially shine?

Kepler's time with the Twins is short. I'm just not sure how short, even though I'm fully on board with sticking with the kids at some point. And there a LOT of OF options to work with. 

[Wizard11]

16 hours ago, Trov said:

Kepler will most likely play out this season, unless a team really wants him at trade deadline.  They will not just cut him, but if AK comes up and hits well, Larnach continues to hit and so does Gallo, there just is no room for Kepler in the regular line up, but he is fine enough should anyone struggle or get hurt.  

Max Kepler went 0 for 5 to start the season.  Since then he has hit .260/.316/520.  Yeah let’s cut the bum.  This anti-Kepler narrative is getting annoying.  TD “GMs” will be drooling all over themselves if Kirilloff comes up and produces the same numbers

[Major League Ready]

9 hours ago, DocBauer said:

But Larnach has been producing, adapting to all the slow stuff he's seeing, Kirilloff may be ready soon, and Wallner is a top 10 prospect having another good season so far at AAA. We can debate about Julien, and Martin, and even Lewis, Celestino, and maybe even someone like Helman, in the OF to one degree or another. But at some point, don't you have to make room for the less expensive, cost controlled, and younger players with talent and potential?

Conceivably, Gallo having a good season, and liking it here, COULD be a re-sign, pretty much costing the combined salary of his 2023 deal and the cost of Kepler. Not saying I see that happening, but I could see it. I can also see Kepler sticking around for 2024 at $10M just to make sure the depth is still there. On top of that, Taylor is a FA as well, I believe. 

If you look at how Tampa Bay has built their teams over the past 20 years, the answer is yes.  They have built their teams around moving players like Kepler or better.  They got Rassmussen by trading Willy Adames.

I hope Wallner gets a chance to prove himself this year so if we know what to expect if he replaces Kepler.  Wouldn't it be something if they ended up resigning Gallo given how he got slammed here.  Could we end up making him a qualifying offer?  That would be a nice bonus if we ended up with a great year from him and then a compensation pick as a bonus.

[jorgenswest]

Are we watching the same player? He is among the team leaders is hard hit rate and barrels rate. He is a very good defender. His walks are down but even with the poor walk rate his OPS is better than Larnach’s.

I don’t know what is coming in May but up until today he appears to be one of the more valuable Twins and I am encouraged by the increases in hard hit rate, barrels and average exit velocity.

[Craig Arko]

I’ve come to feel that this whole narrative about Kepler has largely been, and continues to be, manufactured. This will all play out on its own without any external push. He may be traded during or after the season; that’s the way this business works. But right now he’s contributing, and why is that being overlooked?

[Rosterman]

He could turn into a pickup if another team needs an outfielder that badly. But the chances of even that team picking up his opiton at season's end is probably nill, unless Max really starts to pound the cover off the ball. In that case, the Twins could also keep him, pay the option, and still dangle him as tradebait in the off-season, or get anothre season out of him.

The Twins will have to make some decisions on Wallner and Celestino going forth, as well as potential playing spaces for Lewis and Martin, amongst others...especially if Polanco plays himself into NOT being a Twins trading chip, too.

Larnach's future is still up in the air, and Kirilloff will return, be it at first or the outfield, but then Gallo is still around for this year, too (and also a possible tradechip if the young 'uns need to play and can produce).