It Feels Like the Twins and Max Kepler Are Stuck in a "Minnesota Goodbye"

Tapper to 2nd. 4-6-3 double play to end the inning.

Kepler will most likely play out this season, unless a team really wants him at trade deadline.  They will not just cut him, but if AK comes up and hits well, Larnach continues to hit and so does Gallo, there just is no room for Kepler in the regular line up, but he is fine enough should anyone struggle or get hurt.  

April might be a little too soon to concoct an obituary for the Twins career of Max Kepler. It is true that the stats for Kepler have not been real hot the past couple of years but that same statement applies to other players in our current lineup as well. Maybe Kepler is gone after this year or even gets traded during the year, but I'm willing to see how Max plays up to the All Star game before reaching for another right fielder.

I'll agree to put away the torches and pitchforks as far as running Max out of town. For now. 

We have ample evidence to confidently know what he is; a plus right fielder, capable in a pinch of playing centerfield, with a decline (but not completely useless) bat. To my knowledge he's carried himself well, not been a negative clubhouse guy, and most casual (?) Twins fans think well of him.

I just don't want to see him batting near the top of the order.

Once Kirilloff comes up to play 1B, I'd vote to get rid of Taylor, even though he's been decent. Bux should get back to CF soon, and we can then use Kepler, Gallo and Gordon, who all have better upside hitting, as back-ups.

12 minutes ago, Lou Hennessy said:

 

I certainly don't mean to make it sound like Kepler should be run out of town. Like I said, he's been quite solid since coming back from the IL. The point is that he's going to leave this party eventually, even if it isn't in the near future.

 

The product is still totally usable right now, but he's playing with an expiration date that guys like Larnach, Kirilloff and other young players don't have at the moment.

Lou I should have started my post acknowledging that your article was both clever and accurate as far as Keplers value. 
 

All things considered he’s kind of an asset/luxury for the Twins at the moment but as you point out, is going to eventually need to leave the party. Like a lot of people I grew weary of watching pound grounder after grounder into the shift, seemingly unwilling to consider any adjustments. But hey, I saw him take a pitch the way recently! Im not banking on him getting traded, and he’s got too much value to just dump, but there’s a roster jam on the horizon and it’s going to be increasingly difficult to defend him, especially when this little hot (lukewarm?) streak ends. 

Well, it's likely he's gone after 2024, at the latest, right? So...what's the earliest he would be gone? Trade deadline 2023. So, we're talking less than a season and a half of 'wondering when'? Not that unusual, I don't think.

For 2023, Kirilloff might not turn out (or hold up)...Gallo could turn back into 2022 Gallo...and or Larnach could hit a wall. (Larnach is not without his own offensive issues...and more obvious defensive issues). As long at the Twins are competing and not POSITIVE of both Gallo and Kirilloff, Kepler stays.

For 2024...even if Kirilloff works out, there's a very good chance Gallo is gone or not good...one or the other. So...

10 minutes ago, jkcarew said:

Well, it's likely he's gone after 2024, at the latest, right? So...what's the earliest he would be gone? Trade deadline 2023. So, we're talking less than a season and a half of 'wondering when'? Not that unusual, I don't think.

For 2023, Kirilloff might not turn out (or hold up)...Gallo could turn back into 2022 Gallo...and or Larnach could hit a wall. (Larnach is not without his own offensive issues...and more obvious defensive issues). As long at the Twins are competing and not POSITIVE of both Gallo and Kirilloff, Kepler stays.

For 2024...even if Kirilloff works out, there's a very good chance Gallo is gone or not good...one or the other. So...

Especially Gallo, imagine he has a really good season, he will capitalize on that, most likely elsewhere.

45 minutes ago, jkcarew said:

(Assuming the Twins are still in the race.)

It's a near impossibility they'll be out of the race in the AL Central by the deadline. 

9 hours ago, jccracraft said:

Once Kirilloff comes up to play 1B, I'd vote to get rid of Taylor, even though he's been decent. Bux should get back to CF soon, and we can then use Kepler, Gallo and Gordon, who all have better upside hitting, as back-ups.

The Minnesota Twins NEED Taylor as insurance in CF.  I'd much rather lose Nick Gordon.

16 hours ago, Trov said:

Kepler will most likely play out this season, unless a team really wants him at trade deadline.  They will not just cut him, but if AK comes up and hits well, Larnach continues to hit and so does Gallo, there just is no room for Kepler in the regular line up, but he is fine enough should anyone struggle or get hurt.  

Max Kepler went 0 for 5 to start the season.  Since then he has hit .260/.316/520.  Yeah let’s cut the bum.  This anti-Kepler narrative is getting annoying.  TD “GMs” will be drooling all over themselves if Kirilloff comes up and produces the same numbers

9 hours ago, DocBauer said:

But Larnach has been producing, adapting to all the slow stuff he's seeing, Kirilloff may be ready soon, and Wallner is a top 10 prospect having another good season so far at AAA. We can debate about Julien, and Martin, and even Lewis, Celestino, and maybe even someone like Helman, in the OF to one degree or another. But at some point, don't you have to make room for the less expensive, cost controlled, and younger players with talent and potential?

Conceivably, Gallo having a good season, and liking it here, COULD be a re-sign, pretty much costing the combined salary of his 2023 deal and the cost of Kepler. Not saying I see that happening, but I could see it. I can also see Kepler sticking around for 2024 at $10M just to make sure the depth is still there. On top of that, Taylor is a FA as well, I believe. 

If you look at how Tampa Bay has built their teams over the past 20 years, the answer is yes.  They have built their teams around moving players like Kepler or better.  They got Rassmussen by trading Willy Adames.

I hope Wallner gets a chance to prove himself this year so if we know what to expect if he replaces Kepler.  Wouldn't it be something if they ended up resigning Gallo given how he got slammed here.  Could we end up making him a qualifying offer?  That would be a nice bonus if we ended up with a great year from him and then a compensation pick as a bonus.

Are we watching the same player? He is among the team leaders is hard hit rate and barrels rate. He is a very good defender. His walks are down but even with the poor walk rate his OPS is better than Larnach’s.

I don’t know what is coming in May but up until today he appears to be one of the more valuable Twins and I am encouraged by the increases in hard hit rate, barrels and average exit velocity.

He could turn into a pickup if another team needs an outfielder that badly. But the chances of even that team picking up his opiton at season's end is probably nill, unless Max really starts to pound the cover off the ball. In that case, the Twins could also keep him, pay the option, and still dangle him as tradebait in the off-season, or get anothre season out of him.

The Twins will have to make some decisions on Wallner and Celestino going forth, as well as potential playing spaces for Lewis and Martin, amongst others...especially if Polanco plays himself into NOT being a Twins trading chip, too.

Larnach's future is still up in the air, and Kirilloff will return, be it at first or the outfield, but then Gallo is still around for this year, too (and also a possible tradechip if the young 'uns need to play and can produce).