Roster Crunch? Who stays, who goes?

[Mike Sixel]

3 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

I don't want to label Gordon a fluke either, but that very poor BB% was not a good omen. Gordon does have the same thing Miranda has going for him in that neither are striking out much this year, the balls just aren't falling in. Still, I'd not be inclined to give Gordon the full year to recover as he doesn't have a terribly high ceiling. 

I hope the team doesn't shy away from tough decisions like losing a Gordon or Kepler just because they want to stockpile assets. Now is clearly not the time to have to worry about those tough decisions, but it's likely coming in the months ahead.

This.

[Major League Ready]

6 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

I don't want to label Gordon a fluke either, but that very poor BB% was not a good omen. Gordon does have the same thing Miranda has going for him in that neither are striking out much this year, the balls just aren't falling in. Still, I'd not be inclined to give Gordon the full year to recover as he doesn't have a terribly high ceiling. 

I hope the team doesn't shy away from tough decisions like losing a Gordon or Kepler just because they want to stockpile assets. Now is clearly not the time to have to worry about those tough decisions, but it's likely coming in the months ahead.

I was thinking the same.  It gets very interesting if they remain healthy.  They likely keep Kirilloff at AAA until he proves healthy and productive.  Obviously, they could do the same for Lewis and Julien but all three are guys that hopefully force their hands.  Injury will very likely change this equation but I sure would like to see this problem occur.

The order in which I would like to see them go.
1.    One of Kepler/Gallo.  More inclined to believe Gallo could have a big year and he is more versatile.
2.    Solano because he is a FA at year end and it would likely mean Kirilloff is looking good.
3.    Taylor if Lewis or Martin become worthy replacements
4.    Polanco because that would mean Julien or Lewis forced a trade.  They don't let Polanco go without a good return.
5.    Gordon.  3 yrs remaining / versatile / good bench player.  However, Martin might end up being a better version of Gordon.
6.    Farmer.  Idea l bench player put let him go if the offer is right and we have a replacement.
7.    The other of Kepler/Gallo

*** No hurry on moving Polanco but losing him because they have someone as good or better is a good thing.

[stringer bell]

Gallo is in Boston and will almost certainly be activated for tomorrow’s game. It seems the choices are a)Castro, utility guy hitting .150 b) Julien, top prospect but so far only two hits or c) Garlick, supposed lefty killer. My guess is Julien, but none of the choices would surprise me. I will add that it wouldn’t shock me if Max Kepler was put back on the IL. 

[SwainZag]

1 hour ago, stringer bell said:

Gallo is in Boston and will almost certainly be activated for tomorrow’s game. It seems the choices are a)Castro, utility guy hitting .150 b) Julien, top prospect but so far only two hits or c) Garlick, supposed lefty killer. My guess is Julien, but none of the choices would surprise me. I will add that it wouldn’t shock me if Max Kepler was put back on the IL. 

You don't have to say supposed lefty killer.  Garlick's OPS vs lefty pitching in his career is .853.  That's higher than what Kirby Puckett, Kent Hrbek, Troy Glaus, Carlos Correa hit career wise against any pitching.  Sale ate him up today, but I think he carves out a role when you have both Kepler and Gallo on the same roster.  

I have high hopes for Julien, but outside that 1st inning in Yankee stadium, he's 0-15 with 5 K's and 1 BB.  Give him some time in AAA, when Jorge is ready to come back.....we have another decision to make.

[AlwaysinModeration]

5 hours ago, SwainZag said:

I have high hopes for Julien, but outside that 1st inning in Yankee stadium, he's 0-15 with 5 K's and 1 BB. 

But it was a pretty good inning!

[umterp23]

Roster moves are fun to speculate and the turnover is imminent.  Gallo activated and Castro gets the plane ticket to St Paul. Once Polanco is ready and that may still be a week or so, as his AAA performance was Buxton like with a hat-trick of K's last night.  Julien goes back to AAA to play everyday.  His taste of the bigs right now will serve him well in the future.  

Kiriloff will be interesting.  Playing some OF in rehab assignment now will give you flexibility with Gallo on rotation of 1st base and OF.  Garlick "lefty masher not so much last night" would be interesting decision to make.  

If Solano and Farmer are healthy, then Gordon has to be the odd man out.  Nice story last year, but this year, ouch for him

[Mike Sixel]

I mean, is there a hitter we like on the roster right now, other than the catchers? Clearly, most guys are safe, but this team needs a spark. 

I'm done with Kepler, but the Twins aren't. I don't see a big need for Castro at all at this point. Julien isn't ready, and will be down when they activate Polanco for sure. That's two easy decisions, and one hard one. Next in line is Solano or Gordon.....or both.

[Muppet]

...Who had Gallo for Garlick? Come get your prize. 

[ashbury]

40 minutes ago, Muppet said:

...Who had Gallo for Garlick? Come get your prize. 

Lefty killers are apparently expected to kill, when the opportunity is given and the team already is in dire need of a spark.

[lecroy24fan]

6 hours ago, Muppet said:

...Who had Gallo for Garlick? Come get your prize. 

IMO it was the obvious move. I'm guessing Julien will go down to make room for Polance since there's no DH spot for him to get his bat in the lineup and he needs at bats daily.. Castro for Kiriloff and then when Farmer is ready there will be a decision there. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

On 4/17/2023 at 9:45 AM, nicksaviking said:

I don't want to label Gordon a fluke either, but that very poor BB% was not a good omen. Gordon does have the same thing Miranda has going for him in that neither are striking out much this year, the balls just aren't falling in. Still, I'd not be inclined to give Gordon the full year to recover as he doesn't have a terribly high ceiling. 

I hope the team doesn't shy away from tough decisions like losing a Gordon or Kepler just because they want to stockpile assets. Now is clearly not the time to have to worry about those tough decisions, but it's likely coming in the months ahead.

I have been on the Nick Gordon bandwagon, and still agree with you whole heartedly. He doesn’t field well enough to not hit, and he doesn’t walk so when it falls apart, it really falls apart.

[DJL44]

14 hours ago, lecroy24fan said:

when Farmer is ready there will be a decision there. 

Someone else will get hurt by then. It's nearly impossible to keep 13 players all healthy at the same time. The worrying about "What will we do when everyone is healthy?" is like worrying "What if the Tuesday night Royals game sells out at Target Field?".

[JD-TWINS]

On 4/14/2023 at 3:13 PM, RpR said:

What can they do with Gordon?

No options left - not striking out too much - just need to give him time. Again, last year he hit .289 - 27 doubles - 8 HR after May 1.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

No options left - not striking out too much - just need to give him time. Again, last year he hit .289 - 27 doubles - 8 HR after May 1.

Agreed, however how much leash can they afford to give him to prove it? He’s not the only one not pulling his weight, and at some point soon the FO needs to pull the plug on these guys. It starts with the guys with options, but doesn’t end there. May 1 is 10 days away and if they don’t get the bats going soon, the pitching won’t always be able to overcome the anemic hitting.

[JD-TWINS]

I’m watching afternoon game w/Red Sox 5 days after this original post.

Pagan has given up 7 hits in the 3rd inning - 5 hits after 2 outs. (one hit was a slow roller to SS and Correa was positioned up the middle) Gave up 6 runs in an inning. Middle/middle slider - middle/middle fastballs - behind 3-0 a couple times. UGLY.

Unfortunately, Maeda got hit with batted ball in 2nd & am assuming he’ll be out in IL for short stint.

Tomorrow, Pagan finally DFA’d & Ober up as 5th starter. After 19 games the staff will be what it should have been Opening Day! Gotta happen.

[DJL44]

17 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Tomorrow, Pagan finally DFA’d & Ober up as 5th starter. After 19 games the staff will be what it should have been Opening Day! Gotta happen.

If Maeda is on the IL they can recall Varland or Ober without making a 40 man roster move.

[stringer bell]

There will be some decisions to be made. If Maeda goes on the IL, recalling either Ober or Varland is a no-brainer with no 40-man consequences. If Maeda is just going to miss a start, it gets much more complicated. Either Varland or Ober will be recalled and someone has to be optioned. The easiest would be to option Headrick and then promote his replacement (Sands, Winder, Megill) after Bailey or Louie makes their spot start. 

More deeply, what I will call the front-end of the bullpen is showing some weakness. Alcala has been knocked around a bit in his last two outings and the fastball velo has been mostly on the short side of 95 mph. Moran looks good for a few pitches, but seems to have too many 3-ball counts and baserunners. Pagan just gave up a huge number in Boston and really hasn't been any kind of consistently effective since 2019. Alcala and/or Moran could be optioned, Pagan would be DFAed and the Twins would pay his salary if someone else picked him up after going unclaimed. 

Honestly, I think one of the three relievers should be sent down/DFAed. The easy answer is Pagan, but there is a case for demotion for both Moran and Alcala. 

[chpettit19]

18 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

There will be some decisions to be made. If Maeda goes on the IL, recalling either Ober or Varland is a no-brainer with no 40-man consequences. If Maeda is just going to miss a start, it gets much more complicated. Either Varland or Ober will be recalled and someone has to be optioned. The easiest would be to option Headrick and then promote his replacement (Sands, Winder, Megill) after Bailey or Louie makes their spot start. 

More deeply, what I will call the front-end of the bullpen is showing some weakness. Alcala has been knocked around a bit in his last two outings and the fastball velo has been mostly on the short side of 95 mph. Moran looks good for a few pitches, but seems to have too many 3-ball counts and baserunners. Pagan just gave up a huge number in Boston and really hasn't been any kind of consistently effective since 2019. Alcala and/or Moran could be optioned, Pagan would be DFAed and the Twins would pay his salary if someone else picked him up after going unclaimed. 

Honestly, I think one of the three relievers should be sent down/DFAed. The easy answer is Pagan, but there is a case for demotion for both Moran and Alcala. 

Don't disagree that there's a need for a shakeup in the Pagan-Moran-Alcala section of the pen, but who do they have to replace them? Are they ready to move Sands, Winder, or Headrick to a fulltime relief spot? Would they run with 2 long relievers and have 2 of those guys in the pen to be used for multiple inning stints? If that's the plan, I'd think only 1 of them can fill the role in the fashion they're currently deploying it as you can't have 2 roster spots dedicated to guys who sit around and wait for blowup games, or injured pitchers.

Would they be willing to use 1 of those guys in close games for multiple innings? I'm not sure that's much of an upgrade on Pagan-Moran-Alcala. They built depth everywhere on the roster but the pen. I don't know who you can replace those 3 with since they lost their depth in ST when they DFA'd guys and they got snatched up. Put themselves in a tough spot here.

[Craig Arko]

Sounds like another starter will come up for the home stand regardless of Maeda’s status. Probably Ober, possibly Sunday. So either Maeda goes to the IL or somebody is optioned.

For Polanco, really needs to be Julien to St. Paul so he can continue to play every day.

[Squirrel]

11 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Don't disagree that there's a need for a shakeup in the Pagan-Moran-Alcala section of the pen, but who do they have to replace them? Are they ready to move Sands, Winder, or Headrick to a fulltime relief spot? Would they run with 2 long relievers and have 2 of those guys in the pen to be used for multiple inning stints? If that's the plan, I'd think only 1 of them can fill the role in the fashion they're currently deploying it as you can't have 2 roster spots dedicated to guys who sit around and wait for blowup games, or injured pitchers.

Would they be willing to use 1 of those guys in close games for multiple innings? I'm not sure that's much of an upgrade on Pagan-Moran-Alcala. They built depth everywhere on the roster but the pen. I don't know who you can replace those 3 with since they lost their depth in ST when they DFA'd guys and they got snatched up. Put themselves in a tough spot here.

I think when Winder is ready, and he appears to be close, he will be long relief, and/or relief in some capacity. It was the role he was going to fill last season until we had too many injuries to our starting rotation. And given his shoulder/injury issues, I don't see him destined to be a starter at this point. But ... this is just my opinion and based on nothing but it's just what I think will be.

As for Ober, Varland and RSW, they will get their opportunities to start, either injury replacement or as an occasional 6th starter to give the rotation an extra day here and there. And, I see that Sunday's game, the pitcher is listed as 'tbd', and that would be Ober's day to start in St. Paul (I think), will be be inserted there? Of course, some of this will depend on Maeda, if he winds up on the IL or if they will wait and see.

IF Maeda goes on the IL, I think Ober is up in his place. Headrick I think gets swapped out for Winder or Sands, and that will likely be the rotation there between the Twins BP and AAA.

[Squirrel]

3 minutes ago, Craig Arko said:

Mazda’s status

I see this autocorrect all the time ... assuming it's an auto-correct

[Craig Arko]

1 minute ago, Squirrel said:

I see this autocorrect all the time ... assuming it's an auto-correct

Or auto-incorrect, as the case may be.

[stringer bell]

4 minutes ago, Squirrel said:

I think when Winder is ready, and he appears to be close, he will be long relief, and/or relief in some capacity. It was the role he was going to fill last season until we had too many injuries to our starting rotation. And given his shoulder/injury issues, I don't see him destined to be a starter at this point. But ... this is just my opinion and based on nothing but it's just what I think will be.

As for Ober, Varland and RSW, they will get their opportunities to start, either injury replacement or as an occasional 6th starter to give the rotation an extra day here and there. And, I see that Sunday's game, the pitcher is listed as 'tbd', and that would be Ober's day to start in St. Paul (I think), will be be inserted there? Of course, some of that will depend on Maeda, if he winds up on the IL or if they will wait and see.

Regarding recalling a starter, I would assume that it would be Ober, in part because the team wouldn't want to use up two "send downs" on Varland so early in the season. This is also assuming that an IL stint for Maeda would be just 15 days and not much longer. 

 

16 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Don't disagree that there's a need for a shakeup in the Pagan-Moran-Alcala section of the pen, but who do they have to replace them? Are they ready to move Sands, Winder, or Headrick to a fulltime relief spot? Would they run with 2 long relievers and have 2 of those guys in the pen to be used for multiple inning stints? If that's the plan, I'd think only 1 of them can fill the role in the fashion they're currently deploying it as you can't have 2 roster spots dedicated to guys who sit around and wait for blowup games, or injured pitchers.

Would they be willing to use 1 of those guys in close games for multiple innings? I'm not sure that's much of an upgrade on Pagan-Moran-Alcala. They built depth everywhere on the roster but the pen. I don't know who you can replace those 3 with since they lost their depth in ST when they DFA'd guys and they got snatched up. Put themselves in a tough spot here.

This is an area that the Twins didn't really add depth. I guess the assumption is that someone will step up if needed from the minors or that some nominal starters (Winder, Sands, Headrick) become capable bullpen pieces. One reason why I would like to see the club pull the plug on Pagan is that it would open a 40-man spot for a reliever and some guys would have a path to perform their way to Target Field. 

In other posts, I've mentioned three major league vets that have performed pretty well at St. Paul so far--Dereck Rodriquez, Aaron Sanchez and Jose De Leon. It would seem to me that they could be candidates for the long relief job that Rocco wants to exist in the bullpen, but maybe one of them could actually be a bullpen arm, performing in more than low leverage spots. Beyond that, Sadzek, Schulfer and Stewart have pitched pretty well out of the bullpen, but they're not on the 40-man. 

[chpettit19]

16 minutes ago, Squirrel said:

I think when Winder is ready, and he appears to be close, he will be long relief, and/or relief in some capacity. It was the role he was going to fill last season until we had too many injuries to our starting rotation. And given his shoulder/injury issues, I don't see him destined to be a starter at this point. But ... this is just my opinion and based on nothing but it's just what I think will be.

As for Ober, Varland and RSW, they will get their opportunities to start, either injury replacement or as an occasional 6th starter to give the rotation an extra day here and there. And, I see that Sunday's game, the pitcher is listed as 'tbd', and that would be Ober's day to start in St. Paul (I think), will be be inserted there? Of course, some of this will depend on Maeda, if he winds up on the IL or if they will wait and see.

IF Maeda goes on the IL, I think Ober is up in his place. Headrick I think gets swapped out for Winder or Sands, and that will likely be the rotation there between the Twins BP and AAA.

That'd be my guess for how things play out as well. I don't see a lot of options for them to do much in the bullpen at this point. Beyond switching the AAA guys in and out as needed. I'm not sure what they do if/when it's time to move on from Pagan, or give Moran/Alcala a AAA reset. They don't have anyone I see as a good possibility to take that 1-2 inning reliever role. Unless they're moving Winder to that kind of role, and I'd be on board with that. But I have a relatively quick trigger on moving starters to relievers if they can't hold up to the starter workload so I know some people would disagree with me on this.

[Squirrel]

3 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

Regarding recalling a starter, I would assume that it would be Ober

That was my assumption as well

[chpettit19]

8 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

This is an area that the Twins didn't really add depth. I guess the assumption is that someone will step up if needed from the minors or that some nominal starters (Winder, Sands, Headrick) become capable bullpen pieces. One reason why I would like to see the club pull the plug on Pagan is that it would open a 40-man spot for a reliever and some guys would have a path to perform their way to Target Field. 

In other posts, I've mentioned three major league vets that have performed pretty well at St. Paul so far--Dereck Rodriquez, Aaron Sanchez and Jose De Leon. It would seem to me that they could be candidates for the long relief job that Rocco wants to exist in the bullpen, but maybe one of them could actually be a bullpen arm, performing in more than low leverage spots. Beyond that, Sadzek, Schulfer and Stewart have pitched pretty well out of the bullpen, but they're not on the 40-man. 

Yeah, I'm sure those are the options, but none of them are all that exciting to me. I'm all for getting rid of Pagan as I believe his early season success this year is less indicative of his future performance than yesterday was. But nobody in AAA has me thinking they're significantly better than him. And if Moran and Alcala don't get more consistent (makes me sad, cuz I like them both a lot) then you need 3 guys from AAA and I'm way more nervous. This is the nature of pens, though. You cycle through until you find the guys that are working that year. Luckily their big arms have looked nice to start so hopefully they're only filling the 5-7 spots in the pen, and interchanging the long guy, and that's far less of a problem than having to cycle guys trying to find your top 4 arms.

[stringer bell]

By the numbers: Willi Castro now has a higher OPS than Byron Buxton, Carlos, Correa, Jose Miranda, Kyle Farmer, Max Kepler and Michael A Taylor. This is of course a SSS. Willi's OPS is a point shy of Trevor Larnach and five behind Julien. 

My point here is that numbers can change in a hurry--a good weekend could rocket any of the slow starters to respectability or more. Also, league average OPS is .715, a pretty low number. 

[stringer bell]

24 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

.They don't have anyone I see as a good possibility to take that 1-2 inning reliever role. Unless they're moving Winder to that kind of role, and I'd be on board with that. But I have a relatively quick trigger on moving starters to relievers if they can't hold up to the starter workload so I know some people would disagree with me on this.

This is exactly how Winder has been used during his rehab--multiple innings out of the bullpen. I have envisioned him as part of the long man carousel, but having an actual relief guy capable of multiple innings would be a good niche. To me, it is the one redeeming factor for Pagan--he's always been available to take the ball and quite often at least pitched in two innings, if not going two complete.

[chpettit19]

10 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

This is exactly how Winder has been used during his rehab--multiple innings out of the bullpen. I have envisioned him as part of the long man carousel, but having an actual relief guy capable of multiple innings would be a good niche. To me, it is the one redeeming factor for Pagan--he's always been available to take the ball and quite often at least pitched in two innings, if not going two complete.

I haven't been paying attention to Winder's rehab, so that's interesting to hear. Moran, Pagan, and Alcala have all been used for multiple innings this year. Winder may be the natural upgrade for one of them. That'd be great news.

[Squirrel]

Sounds like Kyle Farmer will be back soon, too ... for Castro?