Should We be Concerned About Carlos Correa's Early Struggles?

[Hunter McCall]

Carlos Correa has struggled mightily to start the 2023 season. Is there cause for concern?

Image courtesy of Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

In January, the Twins re-signed Carlos Correa to a $200M contract. A couple of weeks in, Correa has yet to exactly live up to the lofty expectations of signing such a lucrative deal. Through ten games, Correa is hitting just .182 with a .492 OPS. On top of that, Correa has missed several games with mid-back spasms. Many Twins fans have expressed their displeasure with Correa's early performance. He was even booed by home fans in the home opener following his third strikeout of the game in the top of the tenth inning. Should we be concerned about the star shortstop?

The short answer? No.
On April 27th, 2022, 16 games into the season, Correa was hitting just .167. He came up in many big spots and failed early in the season. Much was made of Correa's slow start at that time too, but he worked through his struggles, put together an excellent season, and earned every dollar (and one could argue more) given to him on his contract.

So, what's the reason for Correa's early struggles?
For starters, Correa is chasing out of the zone far too often. According to Baseball Savant, Correa is in the 22nd % in chase rate, which has resulted in him also being in the bottom fourth of the league in strikeout percentage.

Correa is aware of the analytics and has often raved about his teammates' performances by referencing their Baseball Savant page. He knows he's struggling, and he knows the reason for it. As a player constantly looking for ways to perfect his craft, Correa will take every opportunity to fix this area and return to his usual superstar self.

Another reason for his early struggle may have been the tightness in his back. Correa has been affected by back pain in the past, and while he stated this was a different part of his back than he has dealt with in the past, it is likely just as bothersome. When manager Rocco Baldelli announced Correa had been scratched from the starting lineup on Monday, he noted that Correa had been dealing with this minor injury for a few days, meaning it could've been hindering his play.

How about the reasons for optimism?
Going back to Correa's Baseball Savant page, there are some promising numbers to offset the negative numbers. Correa is in the 93rd percentile in max exit velocity, meaning when he hits the ball, he hits it harder than most players in the league. He is also above league average in average exit velocity and barrel percentage, inferring that he has been hitting the ball hard when he doesn't chase out of the zone and strike out.

On top of hitting the ball hard, Correa has also shown improvement in the field in the small early-season sample size. Last year, Correa ranked in just the 18th percentile in outs above average, accounting for -3 OAA on the season. In the young 2023 season, Correa is in the 85th percentile in OAA and has accounted for +1 OAA. The sample size is small, but it is an encouraging sign that Correa could return to form as an elite defensive shortstop.

To summarize, Twins' fans need to relax with the criticism of Carlos Correa. I understand the high expectations, but the guy gets booed enough on the road. He doesn't need to hear it at home too. He has been a slow starter at times, but as someone dedicated to studying the game and analytics, I am confident he will turn it around and produce at a high level.

What are your thoughts? Let me know in the comments! Go, Twins!

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[stringer bell]

I think the only reason to be concerned about Correa at this point is health. 

[Byrdman]

He has had 33 AB this year.  Half of them were with the back issue.  He will be fine and worrying so early is not needed.  Now we should do something about the Homeplate and catcher positioning.  They protected the catchers but now the players coming home have no idea what todo when the catcher is receiving the ball, as they are always in the base path.  This is causing injuries' like Correa and Cruz from the pirates. 

[MMMordabito]

Not sure this was even worth writing about, but, no.

[Hunter McCall]

1 minute ago, MMMordabito said:

Not sure this was even worth writing about, but, no.

I saw some "DFA Correa" tweets unironically posted on Twitter, so I thought I would waste my time writing about it. As I mentioned, he was also booed at home. Thought I'd attempt to provide a little optimism and ease some criticism.

[Doctor Gast]

IMO I think we are sitting pretty well, even with the extra precautions & injuries. My main concern isn't how well we start but how well we finish. This season it'll be great when Correa starts to get rolling in the 2nd half that we have Buxton, Polanco & Co to rally going into the post season.

I also predicted that Correa's defensive #s would nicely improve with the shift ban.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

1 hour ago, Hunter McCall said:

Another reason for his early struggle may have been the tightness in his back. Correa has been affected by back pain in the past, and while he stated this was a different part of his back than he has dealt with in the past, it is likely just as bothersome. When manager Rocco Baldelli announced Correa had been scratched from the starting lineup on Monday, he noted that Correa had been dealing with this minor injury for a few days, meaning it could've been hindering his play.

Are you aware of the moment Correa said he got spasms in his back and how many plate appearances he had after that? 

[Hunter McCall]

1 minute ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

Are you aware of the moment Correa said he got spasms in his back and how many plate appearances he had after that? 

I'm not exactly sure when it started or how many appearances he had after. All I know is Rocco suggested it had been something they were aware of for a couple days before having him sit and that it shouldn't cause any issues long term.

[Hunter McCall]

44 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

IMO I think we are sitting pretty well, even with the extra precautions & injuries. My main concern isn't how well we start but how well we finish. This season it'll be great when Correa starts to get rolling in the 2nd half that we have Buxton, Polanco & Co to rally going into the post season.

I also predicted that Correa's defensive #s would nicely improve with the shift ban.

Pretty spot on take here! Starting 8-4 with the injuries the team has experienced, as well as winning series' against the Astros and White Sox is a great start to the season. Get the team healthy for a run down the stretch. I think the team is in a good spot as well!

[Battle ur tail off]

He did the same last year, started slow then was red hot towards the end. As stated earlier, injury would be the only concern. Hope he gets back and starts producing soon. Either way, he plays a great SS and that is important for winning teams. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

3 minutes ago, Hunter McCall said:

I'm not exactly sure when it started or how many appearances he had after. All I know is Rocco suggested it had been something they were aware of for a couple days before having him sit and that it shouldn't cause any issues long term.

He said he first felt it while running the bases Saturday (being thrown out at home)

Whereas Correa was sidelined by lower back issues earlier in his career, this flare-up is located in the middle of his back. Correa said he suffered a back spasm late in Saturday’s game and felt it when he woke up Sunday.

“I should be good in a couple days,” Correa said. “I want to make sure that I don’t play through it and it gets worse. It shouldn’t be anything to alarm me. (Sunday) was a little more sore. (Monday) it’s been feeling better, so hopefully in the next couple days I can be back in.”

 

 

 

[ashbury]

We should cut him and spend the money we save on someone better.

/ I'm gonna save this one and use it for every player on the 26-man roster.

[h2oface]

32 minutes ago, Hunter McCall said:

I'm not exactly sure when it started or how many appearances he had after. All I know is Rocco suggested it had been something they were aware of for a couple days before having him sit and that it shouldn't cause any issues long term.

Correa said it happened when he did this awesome attempt at scoring. This is all it took......... click on link to see MLB video

https://www.mlb.com/twins/video/luis-garcia-in-play-run-s-to-trevor-larnach-1tdcxl?q=trevor larnach rbi single&cp=MIXED&qt=FREETEXT&p=0

Pretty amazing that this little lackadaisical tip toe dance attempt at scoring in a horrible bit of base running takes him out. It also ended the inning, and instead of runners on 1st and 3d with 2 outs, the rally was ended.

Read the Athletic article posted earlier fast, as it will slap the paywall page on top in about 10 seconds if you aren't a subscriber.

If Correa is consistent, the upside of his pattern is that even if he sucks at the beginning of the year, he will get hot by the end and take it into the play-offs. Rememeber play-offs?

 

[ashbury]

5 minutes ago, h2oface said:

Correa said it happened when he did this awesome attempt at scoring.

Can't tell you how many times I've been hospitalized after trying to avoid walking into a fellow passenger at the commuter rail station, just that same way.  And that was just walking - can't imagine doing it at full speed.  So I feel ya, Carlos. ALL the feels.

[Hunter McCall]

20 minutes ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

He said he first felt it while running the bases Saturday (being thrown out at home)

Whereas Correa was sidelined by lower back issues earlier in his career, this flare-up is located in the middle of his back. Correa said he suffered a back spasm late in Saturday’s game and felt it when he woke up Sunday.

“I should be good in a couple days,” Correa said. “I want to make sure that I don’t play through it and it gets worse. It shouldn’t be anything to alarm me. (Sunday) was a little more sore. (Monday) it’s been feeling better, so hopefully in the next couple days I can be back in.”

 

 

 

I had heard rumors of that, and I actually wondered at the time of the play if he had gotten hurt. I thought the play at the plate should've been much closer than it was. Hopefully he's back soon, and thank you for that update!

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

1 minute ago, Hunter McCall said:

Hopefully he's back soon, and thank you for that update!

He’s in the lineup tonight in New York 🙂

[Trov]

I never get too concerned about a player or too hyped about a player just a couple weeks into a season.  

[Hunter McCall]

Just now, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

He’s in the lineup tonight in New York 🙂

[h2oface]

5 minutes ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

He’s in the lineup tonight in New York 🙂

Yes!!

We need him even with the .100 some batting average and .400 something OPS. Nothing some hits won't fix.

[h2oface]

Rays win again 9-3. Ties MLB record to start season 13-0.

[Hunter McCall]

21 minutes ago, h2oface said:

Rays win again 9-3. Ties MLB record to start season 13-0.

While the strength of schedule has been awful, that is still a very impressive feat. Great way to start a season that's for sure!

[Squirrel]

2 hours ago, Hunter McCall said:

I saw some "DFA Correa" tweets unironically posted on Twitter, so I thought I would waste my time writing about it. As I mentioned, he was also booed at home. Thought I'd attempt to provide a little optimism and ease some criticism.

Yes, Twitter and waste my time go together very well (and I do the same, so not just a comment for you) 🙂😉

[darwin22]

I agree with the majority of opinions expressed as its far too early to become overly concerned with Correa's slow start.  As mentioned he experienced a similar start last season in April.

Saying that, I do believe its important to note that despite an excellent end to his season in September--.345/.405/.600 with 7 HRs and 18 RBI---by that time the Twins had fallen out of contention as CLE took control of the division as the Twins floundered down the stretch.

What many fail to point out was what Correa did during the months of July and August when the Twins were still leading the division and trying to hold onto their lead with a plethora of injuries.

Correa's stats over July and August 2022:

AB:  179

Hits:  42*/ 31 of which were singles

.AVG:  .235

EBH:   11

Slug %:  .369

With the current rash of injuries---this team cannot afford Correa to have a ANOTHER mid season 2-month slump if they have any desire to play meaningful games in September or October.

 

 

[HerbieFan]

Ummmm....No

[Kipp35]

19 hours ago, Hunter McCall said:

I saw some "DFA Correa" tweets unironically posted on Twitter, so I thought I would waste my time writing about it. As I mentioned, he was also booed at home. Thought I'd attempt to provide a little optimism and ease some criticism.

He was booed because the fans were not happy about being held hostage in his contract negotiations with other teams, and then he held a press conference about how 'healthy' he is.. now, is struggling and listed day to day... gets old.

[Whitey333]

Article was good.  But lay off criticizing fans who booed him at home.  That is their right as Twins fans.  I think Correa will be fine but I also think that he has not shown much for an otherwise historically frugal baseball organization to invest $200 million in.  We should expect and demand more from him as the season progresses.

[Hunter McCall]

17 hours ago, darwin22 said:

I agree with the majority of opinions expressed as its far too early to become overly concerned with Correa's slow start.  As mentioned he experienced a similar start last season in April.

Saying that, I do believe its important to note that despite an excellent end to his season in September--.345/.405/.600 with 7 HRs and 18 RBI---by that time the Twins had fallen out of contention as CLE took control of the division as the Twins floundered down the stretch.

What many fail to point out was what Correa did during the months of July and August when the Twins were still leading the division and trying to hold onto their lead with a plethora of injuries.

Correa's stats over July and August 2022:

AB:  179

Hits:  42*/ 31 of which were singles

.AVG:  .235

EBH:   11

Slug %:  .369

With the current rash of injuries---this team cannot afford Correa to have a ANOTHER mid season 2-month slump if they have any desire to play meaningful games in September or October.

 

 

I agree with you that Correa was subpar during the most important time of the year last year. The problem was he was one of few impact Twins that were healthy at that time. How big would his September surge have been if he had help around him that led to them staying in contention! That's why you're correct that health is going to be the biggest part. Correa will need the studs around him to stay healthy because no matter how well he plays, he won't be able to do it himself.

[Hunter McCall]

1 hour ago, Kipp35 said:

He was booed because the fans were not happy about being held hostage in his contract negotiations with other teams, and then he held a press conference about how 'healthy' he is.. now, is struggling and listed day to day... gets old.

So we're upset that a superstar shortstop eventually signed with us? Also, the health concerns were about the ankle, which too this day he has never received treatment on. He eventually signed with the Twins, I think holding a grudge over the fact that he originally agreed to two better offers to go elsewhere before the deals fell through resulting in him returning is a little silly.

[Hunter McCall]

10 minutes ago, Whitey333 said:

Article was good.  But lay off criticizing fans who booed him at home.  That is their right as Twins fans.  I think Correa will be fine but I also think that he has not shown much for an otherwise historically frugal baseball organization to invest $200 million in.  We should expect and demand more from him as the season progresses.

Thank you for the compliment on the article and I appreciate your comment. I will say though, I think it's my right as a Twins fan who was also at the game to criticize fans for booing a player in the seventh game of the season. I agree that we should demand and expect him to live up to the deal he signed, but my point is, it's far too early to boo the guy for striking out. Carlos Correa has done nothing but gone above and beyond for his teammates and anyone associated with the Twins, I think booing him after a meager first week of the season is worthy of my criticism. I just don't like the negativity of a small portion of the fanbase. Again, thank you for reading and commenting, I understand if you disagree, but wanted to let you know where I'm coming from.

[Drew]

2 hours ago, Whitey333 said:

Article was good.  But lay off criticizing fans who booed him at home.  That is their right as Twins fans.  I think Correa will be fine but I also think that he has not shown much for an otherwise historically frugal baseball organization to invest $200 million in.  We should expect and demand more from him as the season progresses.

I remember in 1988 Kirby Puckett started with a .171/.190/.220 line through 42 plate appearances. I'm not entirely sure what my point is but baseball history is littered with slow starts by every level of player you can imagine. Trying to extrapolate that to anything other than a small sample size will very often make you look silly in hindsight.

And sure, you can boo a player. You can also tell someone that you see on the street that you don't like their hat. You can do all sorts of things but the world gets to judge you for the things you do. Me, personally, I reserve booing my own teams players for when someone is doing something egregious like not running out a ground ball or when they put Pagan in a 2 run game. Not when someone is simply struggling despite their effort. That's like booing your mom when you don't like your Christmas present.