Who will lead Twins in WAR?

[Brad.dahlen]

I want to hear your predictions of who will be the team's top five players in WAR. In 2022 it was Correa, Buxton, Arraez, Gray & Urshella in that order.

 

My guess - Buxton, Correa, P Lopez, Miranda, Ryan  

[gunnarthor]

Buxton, Correa, Gray, Polanco, Taylor. 

[Brad.dahlen]

3 minutes ago, gunnarthor said:

Buxton, Correa, Gray, Polanco, Taylor. 

So I assume you think Taylor will play a majority of the games in CF?

 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Buxton, Correa, Gray, Lopez, Miranda

[KirbyHawk75]

I am old and still go by BA, home runs, rbi, stolen bases, and ERA.  I don't really get WAR or anything else.  Got to read up.  What are the most important metrics?

[bird]

Buxton, Correa, Kirilloff, P. Lopez, Larnach

[Richie the Rally Goat]

1 hour ago, KirbyHawk75 said:

I am old and still go by BA, home runs, rbi, stolen bases, and ERA.  I don't really get WAR or anything else.  Got to read up.  What are the most important metrics?

WAR gets calculated slightly differently depending on your source.

I like Fangraphs. FWAR is the shorthand for Fangraphs Wins Above Replacement the link goes to the Fangraphs library where they define the stats.

For hitting I like wRC+ because it puts hitters relative to all other hitters (100 as average) by components of run creation.

For pitchers FIP is a great stat. It predicts ERA better than historic ERA does by calculating out if a pitched were to experience league average BABIP

For fielding I like OAA

[theBOMisthebomb]

1 hour ago, KirbyHawk75 said:

I am old and still go by BA, home runs, rbi, stolen bases, and ERA.  I don't really get WAR or anything else.  Got to read up.  What are the most important metrics?

Just remember the song by Edwin Starr and you'll be alright. 

War

War, huh, yeah

What is it good for?

Absolutely nothing, uhh

War, huh, yeah

What is it good for?

Absolutely nothing

Say it again, y'all

War, huh (good God)

What is it good for?

Absolutely nothing, listen to me, oh

War, I despise

'Cause it means destruction of innocent lives

War means tears to thousands of mother's eyes

When their sons go off to fight

And lose their lives

I said, war, huh (good God, y'all)

What is it good for?

Absolutely nothing, just say it again

War (whoa), huh (oh Lord)

What is it good for?

Absolutely nothing, listen to me

It ain't nothing but a heart-breaker

(War) Friend only to The Undertaker

Oh, war it's an enemy to all mankind

The thought of war blows my mind

War has caused unrest

Within the younger generation

Induction then destruction

Who wants to die? Oh

War, huh (good God y'all)

What is it good for?

Absolutely nothing

Say it, say it, say it

War (uh-huh), huh (yeah, huh)

What is it good for?

Absolutely nothing, listen to me

It ain't nothing but a heart-breaker

(War) It's got one friend that's The Undertaker

Oh, war, has shattered many a young man's dreams

Made him disabled, bitter and mean

Life is much too short and precious

To spend fighting wars each day

War can't give life

It can only take it away, oh

War, huh (good God y'all)

What is it good for?

Absolutely nothing, say it again

War (whoa), huh (oh Lord)

What is it good for?

Absolutely nothing, listen to me

It ain't nothing but a heart breaker

(War) Friend only to The Undertaker, woo

Peace, love and understanding, tell me

Is there no place for them today?

They say we must fight to keep our freedom

But Lord knows there's got to be a better way, oh

War, huh (God y'all)

What is it good for? You tell me (nothing)

Say it, say it, say it, say it

War (good God), huh (now, huh)

What is it good for?

Stand up and shout it (nothing)

[Matthew Lenz]

Correa, Buxton, Gray, Miranda, and Gallo

[gunnarthor]

8 hours ago, Brad.dahlen said:

So I assume you think Taylor will play a majority of the games in CF?

 

Yeah, I'd love to see Buxton out there a lot but the Twins only put him in CF 52 times last year. They let him DH a bunch (34 times). So, even if Buxton were to play a complete healthy season, you'd think he's have basically 100 games in CF at most. Taylor is going to play a lot. He can amass a lot of WAR pretty quickly. I also think he'll play a lot in the corners as late defensive replacements and spot starts here and there.

[TwinsDr2021]

It has to be Correa, Buxton and Lopez, followed closely by Gray. Because if it isn't there is a good chance something has gone wrong with another season. Those 4 this front office gave up a lot to get (money and players)

[wsnydes]

Does the training staff accumulate WAR for keeping guys on the field and productive?  Cause if so, they're my choice!

Otherwise, I'll go Buxton, Correa, Miranda, AK.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Hmm, I'm gonna hot take this a bit:

Correa, Buxton, Ryan, Kirilloff, Miranda, P Lopez

[terrydactyls]

13 hours ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

WAR gets calculated slightly differently depending on your source.

That's what I love about metrics.  If the result isn't what you hoped for, change the formula until it does (or add a letter to the old metric and create a new one).

[Richie the Rally Goat]

25 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

That's what I love about metrics.  If the result isn't what you hoped for, change the formula until it does (or add a letter to the old metric and create a new one).

 

data is a lot like baking a cake. If you like or dislike something you can change the recipe to improve the quality of your metric.

also like baking a cake, consistency is critical for a high quality cake.

[Brady]

Interesting question in that it speaks to performance, health, and prospect development simultaneously. In my mind, someone like Taylor only cracks the top five if Buxton misses significant time or Gallo/Kepler struggle and Taylor takes on a near-everyday role in the corners. Similarly on the pitching side, I’d hope to see Ryan and Lopez outpace Gray as those two really hit their stride and give the rotation a strong foundation heading into 2024.

I’ll go:

Correa, Buxton, Miranda, Ryan, Gray

[Brock Beauchamp]

2 minutes ago, Brady said:

Interesting question in that it speaks to performance, health, and prospect development simultaneously. In my mind, someone like Taylor only cracks the top five if Buxton misses significant time or Gallo/Kepler struggle and Taylor takes on a near-everyday role in the corners. Similarly on the pitching side, I’d hope to see Ryan and Lopez outpace Gray as those two really hit their stride and give the rotation a strong foundation heading into 2024.

I’ll go:

Correa, Buxton, Miranda, Ryan, Gray

Welcome to Twins Daily!

[LonelyseatinMOA]

Lots of Kirilloff love I'm seeing in here. I for one am still a believer, I think he'll slap a solid 2.8 WAR this season. Limited by not playing defence at a premium position and it may take a bit for him to get used to his new swing 

[Muppet]

On 1/30/2023 at 8:16 PM, jorgenswest said:

For some reason this role doesn’t exist anymore. Joe Sheehan wrote about it in 2017. 

Last there were relievers that average more than 2 innings an outing(minimum 50 relief innings). Trevor Williams and Jamie Barría had the closest to a traditional low leverage long relief role. I think it is more important to have pitchers with options in the back end of the pen. Moran had several 2 inning stints and a 3 inning stint last year. After some of those outing the Twins were able to send him to St. Paul and bring up another arm.

Most relievers were originally starters. They are capable of throwing multiple innings. They just aren’t used that way any longer. Instead high leverage relievers throw maximum effort in shorter stints and the low leverage relievers are shuttled out to AAA after a multiple inning game.

Baseball is always shifting and we may see the long reliever make a return. Perhaps the Twins should be pioneering that effort.

 

[Muppet]

Jake Cave. 2023 will be the year of Jake Cave. (He can still be added to the team in Spring Training right?)

[Rod Carews Birthday]

Correa, Buxton, Lopez, Ryan, Larnach. I’m skeptical on Buxton’s AB’s and on Kiriloff’s wrist.  I also fear a little sophomore slump for Jose Miranda.  I think Ryan and Lopez are money in the bank and I think Correa goes off to an mvp caliber season.  

[Karbo]

Buxton, Correa, Lopez(sp), Miranda, Polanco

[Beast]

Buxton, Correa, Ryan, Lopez, Polanco

Buxton is going to be a monster this year.  I didn’t realize this until now, but his BABIP was .244.  He still OPS’d well over .800 and had phenomenal underlying numbers like wOBA, wRC+, ISO was off the charts.  That BABIP is absurdly low for a guy with his average exit velocity (97th percentile), barrel % (97th percentile), hard hit % (93rd percentile) and sprint speed (92nd percentile).  If that normalizes even to league average, we could be looking at a ridiculous year for Buxton, even if he only plays 100 games.  It was .344 the year before in 61 games. .314 in 2019, .339 in 2017, .329 in 2016, .301 in 2015.  I’m out of my mind excited for what Buxton could do at the plate this year.

I think Correa comes down a little offensively.  Still good enough on both side to be comfortably on the list.

Ryan, Lopez, and Polanco will be rock solid.

Honorable Mentions:

Alex K was on my list until I replaced him with Polanco before posting.  If he returns to pre-injury form, he’s an absolute monster in the batters box.  Playing first should keep him from losing points defensively.

I had a hard time leaving Kepler out.  Despite the hatred that’s developed for him, his floor is still a 2 WAR player.  The shift rules may push that up around 3.  If he swings the bat a little better in addition to the shift change, we could be looking at a 4.  Context:  Arraez was 3rd on the team in WAR around 3.

Sonny Gray could easily end up in there.  He’s on the list if I thought he’d stay healthy enough to throw 150/160+ innings.  I don’t think he will He hasn’t even sniffed 200 since 2015.

I considered Royce Lewis.  But, he won’t get enough MLB time.  I also highly doubt he’s going to consistently slug .550 like we saw in last year’s small sample.  He had never sniffed .500 at any level of the minors prior to 2022.

[jimbo92107]

If AK stays completely healthy, it could go Buxton, AK, Correa, Miranda...

[ToddlerHarmon]

10 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

It has to be Correa, Buxton and Lopez, followed closely by Gray. Because if it isn't there is a good chance something has gone wrong with another season. Those 4 this front office gave up a lot to get (money and players)

I agree with the sentiment, but I won't complain if Kirilloff, Miranda, or Ryan surprise us with a 5 WAR season. If they make the leader board with 3 WAR, then it's been ugly again.

[ToddlerHarmon]

Buxton, Correa, Polanco, Miranda, and Ryan.

More a wish than a prediction because it means the defense has been healthy and superb and Ryan breaks out.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

13 hours ago, ToddlerHarmon said:

Buxton, Correa, Polanco, Miranda, and Ryan.

More a wish than a prediction because it means the defense has been healthy and superb and Ryan breaks out.

All 5 WAR seasons, huh?

[ToddlerHarmon]

14 minutes ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

All 5 WAR seasons, huh?

Zactly. Seriously, though, it means Miranda and Ryan surpassed Lopez, Gray, Vazquez, Gallo, Duran, Kepler, Maeda, Mahle, Larnach, and Kirilloff. Someone on that list has to have 3 WAR, right?

[tarheeltwinsfan]

On 1/31/2023 at 5:06 PM, Brad.dahlen said:

I want to hear your predictions of who will be the team's top five players in WAR. In 2022 it was Correa, Buxton, Arraez, Gray & Urshella in that order.

 

My guess - Buxton, Correa, P Lopez, Miranda, Ryan  

I really hope your prediction is correct. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

19 hours ago, Beast said:

Buxton, Correa, Ryan, Lopez, Polanco

Buxton is going to be a monster this year.  I didn’t realize this until now, but his BABIP was .244.  He still OPS’d well over .800 and had phenomenal underlying numbers like wOBA, wRC+, ISO was off the charts.  That BABIP is absurdly low for a guy with his average exit velocity (97th percentile), barrel % (97th percentile), hard hit % (93rd percentile) and sprint speed (92nd percentile).  If that normalizes even to league average, we could be looking at a ridiculous year for Buxton, even if he only plays 100 games.  It was .344 the year before in 61 games. .314 in 2019, .339 in 2017, .329 in 2016, .301 in 2015.  I’m out of my mind excited for what Buxton could do at the plate this year.

I think Correa comes down a little offensively.  Still good enough on both side to be comfortably on the list.

Ryan, Lopez, and Polanco will be rock solid.

Honorable Mentions:

Alex K was on my list until I replaced him with Polanco before posting.  If he returns to pre-injury form, he’s an absolute monster in the batters box.  Playing first should keep him from losing points defensively.

I had a hard time leaving Kepler out.  Despite the hatred that’s developed for him, his floor is still a 2 WAR player.  The shift rules may push that up around 3.  If he swings the bat a little better in addition to the shift change, we could be looking at a 4.  Context:  Arraez was 3rd on the team in WAR around 3.

Sonny Gray could easily end up in there.  He’s on the list if I thought he’d stay healthy enough to throw 150/160+ innings.  I don’t think he will He hasn’t even sniffed 200 since 2015.

I considered Royce Lewis.  But, he won’t get enough MLB time.  I also highly doubt he’s going to consistently slug .550 like we saw in last year’s small sample.  He had never sniffed .500 at any level of the minors prior to 2022.

Really good post Beast.  I hope you and I and others are right about Buck having a great year.