Brady

Agreed. I would say that you have to hope that one of Julien / Martin / Lee has a great spring to make you feel confident about them taking that spot, but (as you mentioned) a "great spring" means next to nothing. Personally would prefer Lee given what he's flashed, but think it's Julien's spot to lose.

This the the biggest challenge with Prielipp and Raya. I'm also not necessarily convinced that having your high-octane but injury-prone arms focus on max-effort appearances with extremely limited prep time is prudent. Duran (and I'm sure there are other cases) is obviously a strong counterpoint to that concern. As for the fairness element, I don't think it should / does really play a factor. Varland has been extremely vocal about that point, but I'd imagine the minute the Twins lose confidence in him being a meaningful rotation contributor and/or depth piece (i.e., more valuable to the team there than out of the pen) he will make the move full-time. Varland certainly has firmer ground to stand on than, say, Jax and Sands given he's had more success as a starter, but at the end of the day it's a competitive business. If you make it FA and can convince another team you've still got runway as a starter, then more power to you.

Not a new or original point of discussion (especially at this point in the calendar) but interested for others' thoughts on which (if any) of the team's current starters could be best-suited for a transition to the bullpen. I think it's uncontroversial to say that Paddack is a non-starter (no pun intended) for such a transition this year, barring another injury that puts him on the shelf until August / September. Would also put Varland in that camp given his next-man-up status after the first wave of rotation arms. Personally I agree with the notion that both of those guys would be more effective in the pen, but don't really think that's on the table. The two names I'm more intrigued by are Matt Canterino and Connor Prielipp. Seems like the wind is definitely blowing in that direction on Canterino. On Prielipp, I don't see the FO pulling the plug this early, nor would I do so. I'd imagine the prospect (no pun intended x2) of having a homegrown lefty starter with a mid-90s fastball and a wipeout slider is too great to park a 24-year-old former 2nd-round pick in the Wichita / St. Paul bullpen. Just wonder at what point do the longevity concerns crystallize into action on the player development side of the house -- how many major arm issues can someone have before both doors are slammed shut? Given the current state of the major-league bullpen, I don't think the Twins have to push on any one of these or other names in the system. But I can't help but wonder what is possible given the organizational success stories in converting starters to relievers for health (e.g., Duran) or performance (e.g., Jax, Sands) reasons. And with the line between starter and reliever blurring for even established big leaguers (Jordan Hicks & Clay Holmes as two recent examples, with the Jax offseason speculation as another data point), it seems like this is much less of a permanent decision than maybe it once was. Is this best left as a thought experiment induced by Spring Training excitement? Or can the team get better for this and future years by re-aligning certain guys to new goals?

Per the Star Tribune, the judge has decided that as long as Diamond is broadcasting D-Backs, Twins, Guardians, and Rangers games, they must pay the teams the "full contractual rate." It seems like this will bring things to a head very quickly, given that Diamond has already skipped out on one payment to the Twins in April and has another due one month from today. How long until the Twins are on MLB.TV?

Only interested because he represents another LHP option out of the pen. I think Moran will be fine, he just needs a little more experience at the Major League level to really solidify himself. Thielbar is also solid, but at some point I'd start to be wary of regression given variance that is standard with relievers as well as age. But, Hand isn't immune to those same concerns. All in all, I don't see the point of overpaying for an arm that is, at best, marginally better than what we have in place already.

Definitely excited about Prielipp, and I find myself hunting for a silver lining in his injury. Obviously you never want to have to go through the TJ surgery/recovery process, but if you have to, you'd want to do it young when your can body heal and develop much more quickly. For Prielipp to have already had TJ at 22 and still flash top-of-the-rotation stuff is impressive and speaks to the raw potential. Obviously this view ignores the not-insignificant re-injury risk associated with TJ, but I'm choosing to view it differently. He has so little inning mileage on his arm compared to a standard college pitcher that I can convince myself he is actually in an OK spot as it relates to arm health. I think that most college arms hit their ceiling in school and don't have a ton left to grow. As the article points out, Prielipp has a lot of room for development and still likely would've been a dominant force had he been able to play at Alabama. I'm hoping I'm not proven wrong with injury setbacks/lack of development, but it's very exciting for the Twins to have a pitching prospect in the system with the potential to be a #1 guy in the rotation, especially given the team's struggles to bring in such a pitcher via free agency.

100%. Absolutely no reason why the FO/Rocco should grant Kepler a starting spot simply because he's the incumbent. LHH outfielders is probably the area of greatest system depth at the moment and it would be a waste of that prospective talent to park them on the bench for old times' sake. I'm skeptical that the shift ban will reverse Kepler's OPS skid since 2019, so let's at least have a true competition down in Ft. Myers.

If the Twins can get more high-quality work out of the rotation, that will ease pressure on the bullpen and not just from a workload perspective. Pagan should only be coming in in ultra-low leverage situations, not critical 8th inning matchups because Duran had to put out a fire in the 5th. At this point, let's see how everyone (especially the starters) looks through the first month or two and decide if additional support is necessary.

I’m fully behind the idea of giving Gallo every opportunity to succeed early in the year. As you’ve emphasized, he will bring a very high K% and a BA that will compete with fan-favorite punchline Miguel Sano – that is well-known. But, Gallo has the added benefit of being an elite defender in the outfield as well as the potential to excel at 1B. I view Gallo as a more volatile version of Max Kepler. Kepler’s career low wRC+ is 93 (2016) and maxed out at 122 in 2019. Gallo bottomed out at 85 in 2022, but has also achieved 119 in 2017, 122 in 2021, and 144 in 2019. Framing Gallo in this way makes him appear (to me) much more valuable. For the Twins to have a chance at competing with the top teams in the league, they will have to hit on some lottery tickets. If Gallo can reach his potential, then great. If not, the Twins can benefit from his defense until they find a hitter better suited for consistent ABs (Gordon, Larnach, etc.)