Brady

Agreed. I would say that you have to hope that one of Julien / Martin / Lee has a great spring to make you feel confident about them taking that spot, but (as you mentioned) a "great spring" means next to nothing. Personally would prefer Lee given what he's flashed, but think it's Julien's spot to lose.

This the the biggest challenge with Prielipp and Raya. I'm also not necessarily convinced that having your high-octane but injury-prone arms focus on max-effort appearances with extremely limited prep time is prudent. Duran (and I'm sure there are other cases) is obviously a strong counterpoint to that concern. As for the fairness element, I don't think it should / does really play a factor. Varland has been extremely vocal about that point, but I'd imagine the minute the Twins lose confidence in him being a meaningful rotation contributor and/or depth piece (i.e., more valuable to the team there than out of the pen) he will make the move full-time. Varland certainly has firmer ground to stand on than, say, Jax and Sands given he's had more success as a starter, but at the end of the day it's a competitive business. If you make it FA and can convince another team you've still got runway as a starter, then more power to you.

Not a new or original point of discussion (especially at this point in the calendar) but interested for others' thoughts on which (if any) of the team's current starters could be best-suited for a transition to the bullpen. I think it's uncontroversial to say that Paddack is a non-starter (no pun intended) for such a transition this year, barring another injury that puts him on the shelf until August / September. Would also put Varland in that camp given his next-man-up status after the first wave of rotation arms. Personally I agree with the notion that both of those guys would be more effective in the pen, but don't really think that's on the table. The two names I'm more intrigued by are Matt Canterino and Connor Prielipp. Seems like the wind is definitely blowing in that direction on Canterino. On Prielipp, I don't see the FO pulling the plug this early, nor would I do so. I'd imagine the prospect (no pun intended x2) of having a homegrown lefty starter with a mid-90s fastball and a wipeout slider is too great to park a 24-year-old former 2nd-round pick in the Wichita / St. Paul bullpen. Just wonder at what point do the longevity concerns crystallize into action on the player development side of the house -- how many major arm issues can someone have before both doors are slammed shut? Given the current state of the major-league bullpen, I don't think the Twins have to push on any one of these or other names in the system. But I can't help but wonder what is possible given the organizational success stories in converting starters to relievers for health (e.g., Duran) or performance (e.g., Jax, Sands) reasons. And with the line between starter and reliever blurring for even established big leaguers (Jordan Hicks & Clay Holmes as two recent examples, with the Jax offseason speculation as another data point), it seems like this is much less of a permanent decision than maybe it once was. Is this best left as a thought experiment induced by Spring Training excitement? Or can the team get better for this and future years by re-aligning certain guys to new goals?

Per the Star Tribune, the judge has decided that as long as Diamond is broadcasting D-Backs, Twins, Guardians, and Rangers games, they must pay the teams the "full contractual rate." It seems like this will bring things to a head very quickly, given that Diamond has already skipped out on one payment to the Twins in April and has another due one month from today. How long until the Twins are on MLB.TV?

Even with the recent injuries, I'm pleasantly surprised at how the lineup looks. Speaks to the work that the FO did to limit spot starts by guys like Garlick, Contreras, LaMarre, etc. in big games with unfavorable matchups. Nothing against those guys, but I like what we've got now. Taylor, Julien, and even Solano offer much more potential. Hopefully over the next few weeks, guys like Farmer, Polanco, and Kirilloff will heal up and make their way back to Minneapolis. Until then, it's hard to overstate how much I would enjoy seeing a blowout win in the Bronx.

Excited to see Julien debut after the red-hot spring. Of course, it is a little concerning that the Twins have already dipped into the high-level prospect pool due to a string of injuries to start the year. I had hoped that Taylor, Solano, and Farmer would fill platoon or back-up type roles (as I'm sure everyone else did, as well) but they have performed pretty well so far. It's also refreshing to see prospects arrive during a strong start, rather than when the team is far out of contention in September. Hoping for another series win!

Would love to see the Twins grab a win early in the series when you've got Alcantara on the mound tomorrow. Hoping for good velocity from Mahle and better production with RISP. Should be a good one!

For me, C, SS, and CF are the only positions where it really makes sense to put defensive capability anywhere close to offensive production in terms of assessing overall value. Vazquez fits this profile well (coincidentally, so does Michael A. Taylor) so I am glad that we can get his defense behind the plate. The Twins' success on offense will not hinge on over/underperformance from C, so as long as Vazquez and Jeffers stay healthy, play good defense, and put up respectable numbers at the plate, I'll be happy.

If he does have some sort of physical limit on the number of pain-free swings he has, that would be pretty concerning to me. You can certainly try to manage around that (kind of like they've said their goal is to do with Buxton, valuing longevity over playing every day) but it seems like it would be difficult for him to get in any type of rhythm. You'd also run into the issue (projecting down the road) of him breaking down at the most critical part of the season. I'm still optimistic, and it seems like most people in the organization are too, so hopefully he will turn a corner and leave this injury in the past. He's incredibly talented and I'd love to see him carve out a role for the next several years.

Fair enough. I think it's just tough to accept that, for smaller-market teams like the Twins, it largely comes down to luck in prospect development to build out a rotation that can really compete with the Astros, Dodgers, Yankees, Braves, etc. year after year. I agree that they're moving in the right direction when it comes to targeted players. Taking a chance on Prielipp (potentially elite stuff, but with some injury risk) speaks to that. Maybe I'm just impatient, but I'm hopeful for the days when the Twins are no longer constantly chasing pitching at the expense of the farm system without significant postseason success to show for it. But that last point is a whole separate can of worms 😅

I agree with the point being made by many that they have done a really nice job of flipping our own MLB guys for Major League-level talent (Ryan, Maeda, Paddack, even Pagan), especially in situations where the Twins likely weren't going to get much future value out of the pieces being traded away. I think the point I'm trying to make is that (1) we do not have a true SP1/high-end SP2 in the system with an ETA within the next 2-3 years; and (2) trading away significant chunks of our system's Top 30 (at multiple positions) for guys that would likely be SP3-5 on a WS contender will make it difficult to feasibly compete at a high level. I don't think that organizational shift happens all at once, or that we need to consistently roll out elite SP prospects every year, but I would hope to see moves in that direction. I guess I'm taking more of a frustrated fan view than a rational GM stance, but it would be nice to see the Twins have some increased emphasis/success in end-to-end development of high-end pitchers (as I'm sure every organization would)

Saw this on Twitter yesterday regarding the origins of the current Twins pitchers, and I think it raises some interesting questions. No Major League team can sustain this level of external acquisitions in building a pitching staff. Just last year they shipped off Hajjar, Povich, Encarnacion-Strand, Steer, and others to get Mahle and J. Lopez, and this year it took Arraez to bring in P. Lopez. Brusdar Graterol was exchanged for Maeda, Chase Petty for Gray, and so on. Of course there is a flip side to this, as the Twins have turned Eduardo Escobar into Duran and Ryan Pressly into Celestino and Alcala during years in which the big league club was not competing. Lately there have been calls to make a move for Corbin Burnes, which would certainly decimate the top of the Twins' prospect pool. To me, the larger issue that we have put a net drain on the farm system to build the rotation, and to a lesser extent the bullpen. The Twins' struggles in developing high-end starters are well-known -- that's why it's so exciting when guys like Prielipp and Raya enter the fray. Ober, Varland, Woods-Richardson, Winder, and Balazovic all have varying levels of starter upside, but none of them will ever carry a rotation. My question is, when (if ever) will the Twins be able to rely more on homegrown pitching talent? What has to change for that to happen? Scouting? Coaching? Better luck in prospect development? In my mind, a true ace or two is the last missing piece, but I'm wondering where it will come from, and at what cost.

One thing I never understood about Sano was how he was relatively athletic in the field for his size (I remember him making some great plays at 3B when he was there) but that athleticism completely evaporated when it came to getting the bat on the ball. Obviously different skill sets, but you'd think that some baseline level of hand-eye coordination, etc. would carry over to at least raise his floor out of the cellar.

Assuming both Kepler and Gallo rebound from poor seasons last year (which I'm not convinced is a sure thing), it will be interesting to see how much of the improvement will be attributed to favorable outcome variance, the shift ban, and a better mental approach. If analytic techniques can parse out specific hits that would've likely been outs with a shift then we will have at least some answer, but overall I think it will be difficult to say. It's long been said that Kepler is an extraordinarily unlucky hitter (relative to his batted-ball metrics) so you'd think at some point the math would turn in his favor, but it hasn't since 2019. For Gallo, I think much of the improvement (again, that I'm assuming will come) will be the product of lapping a down year at the plate in 2022, so I'll be looking at how he does relative to his more successful campaigns. I'm hopeful for both and love what they bring defensively, but I don't think the shift ban will be a significant factor one way or another.

Only interested because he represents another LHP option out of the pen. I think Moran will be fine, he just needs a little more experience at the Major League level to really solidify himself. Thielbar is also solid, but at some point I'd start to be wary of regression given variance that is standard with relievers as well as age. But, Hand isn't immune to those same concerns. All in all, I don't see the point of overpaying for an arm that is, at best, marginally better than what we have in place already.

I think this is how it will play out, as well. Since you have Maeda (who at one point not too long ago was an above-average arm, albeit for a relatively short time) you might as well see how he looks in the rotation to start the year. He doesn't strike me as a particularly strong bullpen candidate either. I'd like to see Ober continue to develop as a starter and not end up in the weird purgatory of a SP prospect sliding to the pen simply to get him big league innings. There's absolutely a time and place for that approach, but I don't think it is the best fit for the Twins and Ober right now. I'd say let him get innings in St. Paul. Unfortunately, history and probability would say that he will make the trip over to Minneapolis soon enough due to injury.

Definitely excited about Prielipp, and I find myself hunting for a silver lining in his injury. Obviously you never want to have to go through the TJ surgery/recovery process, but if you have to, you'd want to do it young when your can body heal and develop much more quickly. For Prielipp to have already had TJ at 22 and still flash top-of-the-rotation stuff is impressive and speaks to the raw potential. Obviously this view ignores the not-insignificant re-injury risk associated with TJ, but I'm choosing to view it differently. He has so little inning mileage on his arm compared to a standard college pitcher that I can convince myself he is actually in an OK spot as it relates to arm health. I think that most college arms hit their ceiling in school and don't have a ton left to grow. As the article points out, Prielipp has a lot of room for development and still likely would've been a dominant force had he been able to play at Alabama. I'm hoping I'm not proven wrong with injury setbacks/lack of development, but it's very exciting for the Twins to have a pitching prospect in the system with the potential to be a #1 guy in the rotation, especially given the team's struggles to bring in such a pitcher via free agency.

100%. Absolutely no reason why the FO/Rocco should grant Kepler a starting spot simply because he's the incumbent. LHH outfielders is probably the area of greatest system depth at the moment and it would be a waste of that prospective talent to park them on the bench for old times' sake. I'm skeptical that the shift ban will reverse Kepler's OPS skid since 2019, so let's at least have a true competition down in Ft. Myers.

If the Twins can get more high-quality work out of the rotation, that will ease pressure on the bullpen and not just from a workload perspective. Pagan should only be coming in in ultra-low leverage situations, not critical 8th inning matchups because Duran had to put out a fire in the 5th. At this point, let's see how everyone (especially the starters) looks through the first month or two and decide if additional support is necessary.

I’m fully behind the idea of giving Gallo every opportunity to succeed early in the year. As you’ve emphasized, he will bring a very high K% and a BA that will compete with fan-favorite punchline Miguel Sano – that is well-known. But, Gallo has the added benefit of being an elite defender in the outfield as well as the potential to excel at 1B. I view Gallo as a more volatile version of Max Kepler. Kepler’s career low wRC+ is 93 (2016) and maxed out at 122 in 2019. Gallo bottomed out at 85 in 2022, but has also achieved 119 in 2017, 122 in 2021, and 144 in 2019. Framing Gallo in this way makes him appear (to me) much more valuable. For the Twins to have a chance at competing with the top teams in the league, they will have to hit on some lottery tickets. If Gallo can reach his potential, then great. If not, the Twins can benefit from his defense until they find a hitter better suited for consistent ABs (Gordon, Larnach, etc.)

Interesting question in that it speaks to performance, health, and prospect development simultaneously. In my mind, someone like Taylor only cracks the top five if Buxton misses significant time or Gallo/Kepler struggle and Taylor takes on a near-everyday role in the corners. Similarly on the pitching side, I’d hope to see Ryan and Lopez outpace Gray as those two really hit their stride and give the rotation a strong foundation heading into 2024. I’ll go: Correa, Buxton, Miranda, Ryan, Gray