Believe in Buxton for 2023

[SanoMustGo]

I'll believe Buxton stays healthy only after I see it.

[theBOMisthebomb]

The best ability is availability. Buxton is not available (or full strength) a great amount of games. I am as big of a Buxton fan as anyone. I just cannot count on Buxton to be there in the field for the Twins. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me nine times (estimated number of Buxton injuries, I can't find an exact count), shame on me for believing. 

[jimbo92107]

When I recall Jim Thome's leisurely home run trot, I can't help think that is easier on the knees than beating out a double or a triple, with a hard slide at the end. Buxton's home run swing actually is a rather lovely thing to watch. There's a kind of sink down, rise up simplicity to it, like helping yourself to a giant scoop of ice cream from a container the size of a bathtub. I bet ice cream is cheaper by the bathtub...

If Buck wants to last a whole season, seems to me he'll need to pick and choose when to punch his hyperspace button. Also, Baldy will need to get more innings from Celestino and whoever else can man Center. No reason for Buxton to finish a game where the Twins are ahead or behind by ten runs in the seventh inning. Maybe this is the best reason to bring Martin and Lewis up together, to fill in at SS and C whenever needed. 

[The_Phantom]

Since his call up he’s played in 52.4% of twins games. In 2022 he started in 85 games, which is 52.4%. 2022 was not any banner year for playtime. I’d love for him to be an every day regular but there’s just nothing to indicate that’ll happen

[tony&rodney]

Joe Mauer had some serious injuries, most sadly the debilitating concussions that pushed him to an early retirement after forcing him to come out of the catcher's crouch. Mauer ended with 7883 innings behind the plate as well as 5136 innings at 1st Base and 308 games at DH. Professional sports are tough and Mauer's career, magic as it was, ended too soon.

Byron Buxton plays with a fiery passion that ignites entire stadiums. When the Twins are on television or go on the road, Buck is the draw; he is simply electric.  For his career thus far, Byron has played 4436 innings in CF and appeared in 35 game as a DH. Buxton has only taken the field for 100 games once thus far and only managed to make it out to CF in 57 games last year. Because Byron Buxton is on a team friendly no trade contract and especially because he is the best centerfielder in baseball when healthy, we need to just hope for the best and believe that he will do his best to keep us watching. 

Injuries to athletes are a drag, but for nobody more so than the athlete and their families as they heal and rebound and train to come back again and again. Like others, I wince when an obviously hurting Buxton resorts to swinging from his heels because it is less painful to trot than it is to run even if running brings him pure joy more than the 450+ foot blasts. Let us all wish the best for Byron Buxton and hope he is used more appropriately in 2023. In the meantime, maybe Celestino is ready to be a decent backup in CF if none of Gordon, Gallo, or Kepler fit the task.

[Steve71]

I strongly disagree with the comment up-thread to the effect that none of Buxton's injuries make further injuries/problems more likely.

He is a CF, and he has knee problems.  That is probably the most chronic injury issue an OF can have, and certainly does not bode well for his future health.

Great player when he plays in CF.  OK player as DH.  No help when he is not playing.

Playing 35% of the games in CF, and none when the division was being decided is not helpful enough to be considered a successful season.

I would be both delighted and astonished if he could play 140 games in CF in 2023.  That would be fun to watch!

[dxpavelka]

11 hours ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

Good point.  Everyone knows that humans get less injury prone as they age.

Which absolutely means he won't be healthier this year than in the past.  Has to.  Even if only cuz you said so.

[dxpavelka]

8 hours ago, Kipp35 said:

And the ONLY thing we have to grade future expectations.

So, obviously we should sign Babe Ruth & Cy Young.

[Karbo]

I fall on the side of let him play til he breaks. I'm old and have watched the Twins since they first moved here so as I've been reminded many times at this site, the game has changed. However, IMHO so many players today are babied way too much. OK, say he plays through April and gets hurt, put him on IL for however long it takes, rather than this play 2-3 then sit a game routine they came up with. A day off should be rare, unless he's at DH or sick etc. Gone are the iron man types today I know. But with the advanced in sports training and medicine, I would think these highly paid pro athletes should be able to play more.

[Squirrel]

14 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

For a player we expect so much from Sano is not a good comp

I think that was Ted’s point as that was his response to someone who claimed Buxton was Sano-esque, which was way off the mark

[h2oface]

Byron Buxton........ sigh

[Kipp35]

8 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

So, obviously we should sign Babe Ruth & Cy Young.

Probably play more games than Buck.

[rv78]

20 hours ago, Beast said:

The guy has accumulated over 20 WAR in 585 games.  That’s .035 per game.  Joe Mauer was at .030 for his career.  Aaron Judge and Mike Trout are around .05 per game.  Bryce Harper is around .031.

Saying he a bust and he can’t put together a good full season is absurd.  He’s responsible for more wins in half a season than almost everybody else is in a full one.  Alex Bergman had 4.5 WAR in 2022.  Rafael Devers 4.4.  Luis Arraez 4.4.  George Springer 4.0.  Clad Guerrero 4.0.  Byron Buxton 4.0.

He had .5 higher WAR than Matt Chapman in 2022.  1.2 higher than Acuna, Yelich, Wander Franco. 1.5 more than Bryce Harper.

Thats significant value added.  It’s just a fact that if he plays a full season (the way he’s played historically), that he would be near the top of the MLB in WAR.  You’re flawed perception doesn’t change that.

My flawed perception showed in 2022 that he hit .224 and struck out 116 times in 382 PA. Trending to very much like a Sano. I find WAR numbers to be insignificant when the player is on the bench due to injury. When Buck puts together a FULL season in the outfield where a good portion of his WAR number of 20 comes from, then I will consider him with the likes of the Bregmans, Devers, Arraez, Springers and so on.... until then...... not gonna happen.

[mikelink45]

2 hours ago, Squirrel said:

I think that was Ted’s point as that was his response to someone who claimed Buxton was Sano-esque, which was way off the mark

BR has his comps - Ian Happ, Eric Thames, Craig Wilson, Mitch Hanigar and Rick Ankiel - not a list of superstars.

Through age 28 his comps are Bo Jackson (he was great and then injury took him out young), Mack Jones from the Milwaukee Braves, Matt Joyce, Jimmie Hall (Minnesota Twins) and Jorge Soler.  

This brings up a question I have had for a long time - are we overrating Buxton.  Do we have a home town bias?

[Trov]

19 hours ago, Ted Schwerzler said:

Two things:

1. Altering his style saps his value

2. His style didn't lead to the injury that had him coming up lame from a weird slide.

I agree with number 1, however, I disgree with saying over and over it was a fluke or weird slide.  Reports were he was dealing with knee issue even in spring, it just showed up in regular season right away.  He also had a hip injury that ultimately put him on the shelf I do believe.  I could be wrong there, but I recall the full IL stint to end the season was not the knee. 

[Trov]

20 hours ago, roger said:

I do not believe that Buxton is as fragile as many say.  A good share of his injuries have been normal baseball related injuries.  How many times has he been on the IL after being hit in the hand/wrist with a 90+ mph fastball?  I don't recall the exact number, but believe it is several.

Running into a fence at full speed will destroy anyone's body, especially hitting some fences which aren't properly padded at his speed.  Yes, some of his injuries have been nagging injuries you would think/hope a professional athlete could avoid.  But most were either normal baseball injuries or due to his playing 100% on every play.

As for 2023, if Byron plays 130+ games with most being in center field the Twins will win.  They will be in the playoffs. 

He has missed long stints for various issues.  He has been injured playing defense, hitting, running bases.  He has had hand injury from sliding, and getting hit by pitch.  He injured toe from foul ball.  He has twice injured hip just from running the bases.  He injured his knee sliding.  Yes, they are all from playing the game 100%, but to me that proves the point, that he will continue to find ways to get hurt, because he goes all out all the time.  He will continue to find a new way to get hurt.  Oh I think he also missed time due to migraines as well, lucky that never popped up again.

[Squirrel]

17 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

This brings up a question I have had for a long time - are we overrating Buxton.  Do we have a home town bias?

Of course we do. I see it with many trade proposals on this site. Doesn't mean it's wrong to be so. Doesn't mean the opposite is, either. I think being guardedly hopeful is a good way forward, but then that is too optimistic to others. We each come from a different perspective where some seem over the top optimistic to some while others seem way too over the top pessimistic for others. But, back to Buxton, lots of 1st-rounders show huge promise and potential ... it's why they are 1st-rounders ... but it's still a crapshoot who makes it and who doesn't. But Buxton still shows huge ability, both on field and in the batter's box ... when he plays. I don't think we are overrating his player abilities and skills ... but where I am guarded is how often those abilities and skills contribute, due to injuries. How you want to play that in your hopefulness or lack thereof as to what kind of season he will have, well, no one is right or wrong in their opinions. As I've said, I just want to see him play as often as possible, just not sure how often as possible will happen.

[jjswol]

There is absolutely no reason to think that Buxton is going to be healthier as he ages. The Twins needs to catch him in one of his healthy productive streaks and trade him as quickly as possible. Get as much as you can for him as you can while you can. 

 

[mikelink45]

1 hour ago, Squirrel said:

Of course we do. I see it with many trade proposals on this site. Doesn't mean it's wrong to be so. Doesn't mean the opposite is, either. I think being guardedly hopeful is a good way forward, but then that is too optimistic to others. We each come from a different perspective where some seem over the top optimistic to some while others seem way too over the top pessimistic for others. But, back to Buxton, lots of 1st-rounders show huge promise and potential ... it's why they are 1st-rounders ... but it's still a crapshoot who makes it and who doesn't. But Buxton still shows huge ability, both on field and in the batter's box ... when he plays. I don't think we are overrating his player abilities and skills ... but where I am guarded is how often those abilities and skills contribute, due to injuries. How you want to play that in your hopefulness or lack thereof as to what kind of season he will have, well, no one is right or wrong in their opinions. As I've said, I just want to see him play as often as possible, just not sure how often as possible will happen.

I disagree with the rest day plan.  Injuries can occur at any time and taking planned rest does not reduce the potential of injury on any day.  It is something they tried, but my feeling is, play him when he is ready, rest him when you see that he is tired or physically unable. 

[laloesch]

I don't think it truly matters at this point.  This is not a playoff bound team.  If anything they should be looking to deal the few good pieces they do have like Buxton, Polanco, etc. to bring back as many prospects as possible.  I don't think this current batch of guys will ever be playoff caliper.

[Nine of twelve]

1 hour ago, mikelink45 said:

I disagree with the rest day plan.  Injuries can occur at any time and taking planned rest does not reduce the potential of injury on any day.  It is something they tried, but my feeling is, play him when he is ready, rest him when you see that he is tired or physically unable. 

The idea is to get the most out of a player over the course of a season. Few to no players will be optimally productive in September after playing 150 games. It's a difficult balancing act to know exactly how much to rest a player in order to get optimal production.

[mikelink45]

1 hour ago, Nine of twelve said:

The idea is to get the most out of a player over the course of a season. Few to no players will be optimally productive in September after playing 150 games. It's a difficult balancing act to know exactly how much to rest a player in order to get optimal production.

I would like to hear Nolan Ryan and Cal Ripken in this discussion. 

[Cap'n Piranha]

16 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

Which absolutely means he won't be healthier this year than in the past.  Has to.  Even if only cuz you said so.

I never implied he wouldn't be healthier.  I implied it's silly to think, as you said, that Byron Buxton's injury history has no bearing on his injury future.

[Cap'n Piranha]

35 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

I would like to hear Nolan Ryan and Cal Ripken in this discussion. 

Cal Ripken career OPS+ by month, with each month having at least 1700 PAs

Mar/Apr--101

May--101

Jun--106

Jul--108

Aug--95

Sep/Oct--90

[dxpavelka]

11 hours ago, Kipp35 said:

Probably play more games than Buck.

AND more than Larnach & Kirilloff.

[dxpavelka]

4 hours ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

I never implied he wouldn't be healthier.  I implied it's silly to think, as you said, that Byron Buxton's injury history has no bearing on his injury future.

No more silly than thinking the past has any bearing on the future.  Although IF that were the case I'd say we're in for another 75 win season.  That should be exciting.

[Cap'n Piranha]

9 minutes ago, dxpavelka said:

No more silly than thinking the past has any bearing on the future.  Although IF that were the case I'd say we're in for another 75 win season.  That should be exciting.

This is particularly hilarious given your stance in a different thread that the Twins should bring back Miguel Sano, based on the production he’s had IN THE PAST.

[Vanimal46]

9 hours ago, jjswol said:

The Twins needs to catch him in one of his healthy productive streaks and trade him as quickly as possible. Get as much as you can for him as you can while you can. 

 

The No Trade Clause kicked in now, so that ain’t happening. 

[Vanimal46]

23 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Joe Mauer had some serious injuries

Joe Mauer’s 2011 season, where he played 82 games, is the only season in his 15 year career that comes close to Byron Buxton. These 2 players aren’t in the same universe when it comes to availability playing baseball games. 

[mikelink45]

6 hours ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

Cal Ripken career OPS+ by month, with each month having at least 1700 PAs

Mar/Apr--101

May--101

Jun--106

Jul--108

Aug--95

Sep/Oct--90

That is true of a lot of players - the doldrums of August heat and the end of the year always have an impact