Twins 2022 Position Analysis: Designated Hitter

[Nick Nelson]

Twins fans have grown spoiled at the DH position. Over the past three years, Nelson Cruz graced us with his excellence, setting an unreachable standard.

The team won't be able to match his production, but if there's a silver lining to his absence, it's that the lack of a dedicated full-time starter at DH creates a lot of flexibility – and opportunity.

Projected Starter: Gary Sánchez
Likely Backup: Miguel Sanó
Depth: Luis Arraez, Brent Rooker
Prospects: Aaron Sabato, Christian Encarnacion-Strand

THE GOOD

A few weeks ago, I figured the team's plan was to have Mitch Garver split time between catcher and designated hitter, with Ryan Jeffers getting primary reps behind the plate and other players rotating through the DH spot when Garver caught or sat. That's the kind of flexibility you gain from losing a fixture in Nelson Cruz.

The scenario I envisioned has since been flipped upside down by a flurry of disruptive moves, and as the sum result, Gary Sánchez will essentially be filling the same role I saw for Garver. He'll have the smaller end of a catching timeshare, with plenty of time at DH to maximize the impact of his powerful right-handed bat. Although Sánchez has been worse than Garver of late, his overall track record is much more impressive: Rookie of the Year runner-up in 2016, two-time All-Star, owner of an .804 career OPS and 138 home runs by age 29.

We've got Sánchez pegged as the starter at DH because he seems lined up for the most time there early on, but things are fluid at this position by design. Rocco Baldelli can play match-ups and maximize his best bats by taking advantage of the open reins. Plenty of candidates will be vying for opportunities. 

Miguel Sanó should see a good amount of time at DH, since the Twins seem to (justifiably) much prefer Alex Kirilloff's defense at first base. Luis Arraez lacks a firm starting position, so DH is an easy way to get his bat into the lineup against righties. (I wouldn't be surprised to see him there on Opening Day, even against a lefty.) Those three alone should be able to account for a bulk of the ABs in April.

From there, the Twins can keep an open mind. Brent Rooker, the former first-round pick with an .874 OPS in the minors, could be a factor. Aaron Sabato, a more recent first-rounder coming off a roller-coaster pro debut, may not be far behind if his emergence at Cedar Rapids was legit. Christian Encarnacion-Strand is very intriguing to me – the 2021 fourth-rounder mashed to a 1.022 OPS in pitcher-friendly Ft. Myers last summer after starring for Oklahoma State. Like Sabato, he's 22. 

Plenty of potential bats in the pipeline. But the real dark horse here is José Miranda. I don't have him listed among the prospects or depth at this position because he's got enough glove to not be considered a long-term DH candidate, but Miranda's bat may force the issue. If he's raking in St. Paul while the various timeshare partners aren't inspiring for the Twins, the reigning Minor League Player of the Year is a mere shuttle away. A nice little ace in the hole.

THE BAD

Most of Minnesota's future DH impact is entirely theoretical, representing a stark change from the very reliable and material impact of Cruz. 

Sánchez is a nice piece there if he's mashing like he did early in his career. But between 2020 and '21 he slashed .187/.291/.406. Yeesh. Arraez, for as much as we all love him, was not a great offensive player last year. His punchless .294 average and .357 OBP yielded a 105 OPS+, meaning he was 5% better than average. You need more from a designated hitter.

With Garver gone, Sanó is probably the most dependable impact bat the Twins can use at DH. For all the grief he gets, he was second on the team in home runs and RBIs last year, and he's only posted a below-average OPS once in seven seasons. I think I lost everyone when I used "Sanó" and "dependable" in the same sentence so I'll just move onto the next paragraph.

It would be awesome to see Rooker grab the job and take hold of it. This is his moment. He's 27 and the raw power is special. His defensive shortcomings suggest that any major-league future will be at DH. Unfortunately, the Twins basically gave him everyday playing time after trading Cruz last year and Rooker did little to impress, slashing .219/.317/.425 with a 57-to-14 K/BB rate in 183 plate appearances. He's got an uphill battle for anything resembling regular tread. He might not even make it to Opening Day on the 40-man roster.

Miranda, as amazing as he looked in the high minors last year, remains a theoretical big-league asset in his own right. Sabato and Encarnacion-Strand even more so. 

THE BOTTOM LINE

The Twins face an uncertain future at designated hitter after parting ways with one of the best to ever do it. Expect to see plenty of Sánchez, Sanó and Arraez early on, with an open-ended roadmap after that. 

Catch Up on the Rest of Our 2022 Previews:

• Position Analysis: Catcher
• Position Analysis: First Base
• Position Analysis: Second Base
• Position Analysis: Third Base
• Position Analysis: Shortstop
• Position Analysis: Left Field
• Position Analysis: Center Field
• Position Analysis: Right Field

 

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[miracleb]

I sure don't like to see Sanchez at the top of this list!  If he was a middle of the pack defensive catcher, his hitting numbers could be bearable behind the plate.  His numbers DON'T hold up as a "regular" DH.  I would rather have Kiriloff, Larnach, Rooker, Sano, or Arraez at DH over Sanchez.

[mikelink45]

Thanks for another thoughtful analysis.  I have enjoyed these position reviews.  I keep hoping some team will offer us a bag of balls or something equivalent and take Sanchez off our roster.  I would like Sano to be there, Kiriloff at 1B and Larnach in LF.  

I have no faith in Rooker and you have documented why that is. Miranda and Arraez are interesting options and Miranda would be the one most likely to produce DH numbers.

 

[RJA]

It will be interesting to see what happens with Sanchez.  If he surprises and hits well because he feels less pressure than in New York, I think we will all be happy.  But, if he doesn't, I am not sure what you do with him--a catcher who can't hit and can't catch would be a giant waste of a roster spot.  Let's hope for the best.

[DJL44]

For me this is a no-brainer. Play Sano at DH every day and play someone who can actually field at first base. Arraez is certainly a better first baseman than Sano.

Look at the Fangraphs projections.

Miguel Sanó - Stats - Batting | FanGraphs Baseball

Sano is projected at -10 to -20 (!!!) runs at first base for 2022. Any mediocre first baseman is 1 to 2 wins better. That's huge, especially when you're trying to piece together a pitching rotation with a lot of question marks.

Moving Sir Clanks-a-Lot to full time DH makes him MORE valuable - you can't say that for anyone else on the roster.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Good analysis. Thank you. 

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, mikelink45 said:

Miranda would be the one most likely to produce DH numbers.

Miranda would be my starting first baseman. His bat is ready and his glove is LOT better than Sano's.

[Doctor Gast]

Hope Sanchez can turn it around both hitting & catching (I like his arm) because DH is by far our deepest position where here is the best position for many of our players regrettably. Wish we were as deep at SS, CF and catching.

[justinone]

Sure Arraez only had an OPS+ of 105, but his career number is 113. That happens to be the same career number as Sanchez. Plus Sanchez hasn't been above 100 since 2019. Unless Sanchez dramatically changes that career trajectory there is little reason to use him as a designated hitter. 

[DJL44]

5 minutes ago, justinone said:

Sure Arraez only had an OPS+ of 105, but his career number is 113. That happens to be the same career number as Sanchez. Plus Sanchez hasn't been above 100 since 2019. Unless Sanchez dramatically changes that career trajectory there is little reason to use him as a designated hitter. 

Gary Sanchez can still hit lefties but we don't want a DH with a .686 OPS against RHP.

[stringer bell]

Trade Sánchez for “future considerations” , sign Sandy León to back up Jeffers. 

[stringer bell]

I really would like to see Sanó get the majority of PAs as the DH. I’d like to see Arraez mostly start at third and Sánchez and Jeffers share catching time 60-40. 

[joefish]

I'd rather see Arraez at 2b and have Polanco as the switch hitting DH.

[Minny505]

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Miranda would be my starting first baseman. His bat is ready and his glove is LOT better than Sano's.

I don't like this take.

I love this take!

Need to somehow get Sano out of the field. I want him and Arraez starting 90% of the games at DH, with a strong tilt toward Sano. 

Miranda is a great solution, either in LF or at 1B. I'm ambivalent as long as it gets Sano out of the infield. 

The team had a bad season or Sanchez had a great season, if he ends up leading the squad in DH starts.

Maybe the plan is to give him extra ABs in the first half to find it and trade him for something of value?

[stringer bell]

Arraez would be a better choice in LF right now. Miranda has minimal experience in the outfield, while Arraez has considerably and grades out as neutral. I suspect the only reason Arraez was taken out of the LF scenarios is his rather fragile leg health. 

[Mike Sixel]

If they don't think Sanchez can catch, I'd just release him or trade him for nothing (other than saving some of the money). Sano should be the DH, as he's atrocious at first (somehow). I'd put almost anyone at first rather than him. They could not be worse. Arraez should be the LF or 1B, though maybe they don't want him running around in the OF. 

[Utah Twins Fan]

19 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

If they don't think Sanchez can catch, I'd just release him or trade him for nothing (other than saving some of the money). Sano should be the DH, as he's atrocious at first (somehow). I'd put almost anyone at first rather than him. They could not be worse. Arraez should be the LF or 1B, though maybe they don't want him running around in the OF. 

I agree with Mike I really think a trade or release of Sanchez is coming 

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, Utah Twins Fan said:

I agree with Mike I really think a trade or release of Sanchez is coming 

I don't think they will, btw. I think they should, if they won't use him at C. 

[Nashvilletwin]

8 hours ago, RJA said:

It will be interesting to see what happens with Sanchez.  If he surprises and hits well because he feels less pressure than in New York, I think we will all be happy.  But, if he doesn't, I am not sure what you do with him--a catcher who can't hit and can't catch would be a giant waste of a roster spot.  Let's hope for the best.

DFA

[The Mad King]

Gonna miss Cruz, no doubt. The thingi liked best about him was he never got rattled. Calm and cool no matter the situation. 

I like Sano sliding into that role, but I can't stand sub .250 averages. Miguel, get off my lawn!

[farmerguychris]

I liked Cruz as much as the rest of us, but I gotta agree that I like the flexability we have now where our DH could play in the field as well. Admit I did want to see Nelson play 1B however since he seemed to like it so much.

[twinssporto]

We need to get Sanchez some at bats in April and May...I'll be the contrarian and proclaim this guy is going to rake hits and HR's!!!

I really do think a change of scenery will help him...stay tuned!

[RpR]

We put a better bat at Short Stop and have lousy choices at Designated Hitter, not a smart move.

[D.C Twins]

Great write up as always Nick, but Sabato reference could only have been for a comedic break

There is a 0.0% chance he has any impact on the Twins roster this year....

[DJL44]

Quote

Toward the end of last season, Baldelli briefly mentioned that there's a chance the versatile Luis Arraez could be asked to add first base to his skillset. That manifested on the field for the first time on Thursday, when the infielder moved to first base for three innings of a game against the Red Sox.

 

Expect to see more of that this spring -- and possibly beyond.

"It’s going to be good for his versatility and it’s going to be good for us," Baldelli said.

Chris Archer makes spring debut with Twins (mlb.com)