Rangers going all in....

[mnfireman]

Sign Seager to 10/$325MM contract. Seager, Semien, Gray, Calhoun....wouldn't be surprised to see Kershaw and Ray/Stroman there as well. Trying to be this years Padres?!?! 

[mnfireman]

See Ray signed with the M's.....

[beckmt]

Seem to be going all in, maybe with Astros fading a bit.   Should be interesting.

[John Bonnes]

I .... don't get it. Maybe they just have a lot more young talent than I'm aware of, but this feels like they're jumping the gun, or trying to load up on a loaded market for flipping purposes, but still ending up paying full price. 

 

[bean5302]

Honestly... this strikes me as stupid. Seager for $325MM and Semien for $175MM. I mean, Seager is a pretty lousy shortstop so maybe the Rangers plan to use him at 3B, but then... why $325MM? LOL.

Hey, whatever floats (or sinks) their boat haha.

[nicksaviking]

There really needs to be revenue sharing and a salary floor within spitting distance of the luxury cap. This game can't make it if only a handful of teams each year are able to load up on the top end talent.

[nicksaviking]

10 minutes ago, John Bonnes said:

I .... don't get it. Maybe they just have a lot more young talent than I'm aware of, but this feels like they're jumping the gun, or trying to load up on a loaded market for flipping purposes, but still ending up paying full price. 

 

Well they have Gray for four years, Semian for seven and Seagar for 10. This doesn't need to be THE year.

In fact, I think it's poor judgment to try to time going big in free agency at the very moment you expect your team to be ready. I know that's how many teams do it, but I don't think that's the way it usually ends up working out.

[nova_twins]

Signing Seager makes sense to me, given his age. And Gray was cheap. But paying big money to Semien looks even stranger now.

I imagine that Kiner-Falefa would shift to a utility role, but maybe they would look to trade him. He might not be the worst 'cheap' SS option, being similar to Iglesias and Simmons but much younger.

[Squirrel]

43 minutes ago, John Bonnes said:

I .... don't get it. Maybe they just have a lot more young talent than I'm aware of, but this feels like they're jumping the gun, or trying to load up on a loaded market for flipping purposes, but still ending up paying full price. 

 

I said this elsewhere but it seems that some teams (Rangers, Mets) have no strategy and are just buying to buy, while other teams have no strategy and are just sitting and watching ... ?‍♂️

And I'm sure teams have their strategies, but from my pov, it just is weird.

[Scott51104]

Honestly... this strikes me as stupid. Seager for $325MM and Semien for $175MM. I mean, Seager is a pretty lousy shortstop so maybe the Rangers plan to use him at 3B, but then... why $325MM? LOL.

Hey, whatever floats (or sinks) their boat haha.

 

Presumably the Rangers plan to sign Carlos Correa as their shortstop.

[lecroy24fan]

17 minutes ago, nova_twins said:

 

I imagine that Kiner-Falefa would shift to a utility role, but maybe they would look to trade him. 

No chance they trade him. He goes back to 3B, where he won a Gold Glove in 2020.

[mnfireman]

7 minutes ago, lecroy24fan said:

No chance they trade him. He goes back to 3B, where he won a Gold Glove in 2020.

I don't know, even with big production out of SS and 2B (you pick who's who), his production seems very light for a 3B. The glove does play though (Story and Correa are still available though...).

[Rosterman]

Well, there seems to be no shortage opf monies in baseball...unless you are the Red, A's...and maybe the Twins!

[TheLeviathan]

Woof....I was way low on Seager.  That is hefty.

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

There really needs to be revenue sharing and a salary floor within spitting distance of the luxury cap. This game can't make it if only a handful of teams each year are able to load up on the top end talent.

Considering every single team in the Twins' division, even those in much smaller markets than the twin cities have debuted larger season payrolls than the Twins, I'm not sure I agree with you.

If Kansas City can afford a $141MM opening day payroll when they're all in, I just don't see the problem. Kansas City's stadium is old, it's not downtown, the local market is 1/2 the size of Minneapolis and they were traditionally a team who didn't play well.

The Texas Rangers play in Arlington. Population, 400k. 99sq/mi. Density 4.1k per square mile. Now, Dallas and Fort Worth are 20mi and 15mi away, respectively which would add about 2.0 million people.

The Twins play in Minneapolis. Population 420k. 57sq/mi. Density 6.0k per square mile. St.Paul, Population 311k adds 56sq/mi. Density 6.0k per square mile. Effectively, together, 731k, 113sq/mi. Density 6.0k per square mile. The twin cities metro 3.6MM people in 1,000 square miles. DFW is 7.6MM, but in an area nearly 10x larger at 9,200 square miles. 

Bottom line, the Pohlads are cheap and choose not to compete at a level many other teams in their income bracket choose.

[TheLeviathan]

Kiner-Falefa anyone?  Seems to be out of a job and plays a good SS.

[Cap'n Piranha]

10 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Considering every single team in the Twins' division, even those in much smaller markets than the twin cities have debuted larger season payrolls than the Twins, I'm not sure I agree with you.

If Kansas City can afford a $141MM opening day payroll when they're all in, I just don't see the problem. Kansas City's stadium is old, it's not downtown, the local market is 1/2 the size of Minneapolis and they were traditionally a team who didn't play well.

The Texas Rangers play in Arlington. Population, 400k. 99sq/mi. Density 4.1k per square mile. Now, Dallas and Fort Worth are 20mi and 15mi away, respectively which would add about 2.0 million people.

The Twins play in Minneapolis. Population 420k. 57sq/mi. Density 6.0k per square mile. St.Paul, Population 311k adds 56sq/mi. Density 6.0k per square mile. Effectively, together, 731k, 113sq/mi. Density 6.0k per square mile. The twin cities metro 3.6MM people in 1,000 square miles. DFW is 7.6MM, but in an area nearly 10x larger at 9,200 square miles. 

Bottom line, the Pohlads are cheap and choose not to compete at a level many other teams in their income bracket choose.

Well, maybe the Rangers Cable Channel has figured out how to get their channel further out than a couple of miles from the stadium, so that larger metro area isn't such a big deal.

[bean5302]

3 minutes ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

Well, maybe the Rangers Cable Channel has figured out how to get their channel further out than a couple of miles from the stadium, so that larger metro area isn't such a big deal.

Maybe Bally Sports has figured out how to get their broadcasts out further than a couple miles from Minneapolis, too? You know, since all of Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota, Iowa and parts of Wisconsin are all in the Twins' blackout area.

[chpettit19]

I'm with Bonnes, this feels premature. I'm not saying teams should wait until they have a bunch of young players ready to contend then go trying to spend, but they now have 2 stud middle infield bats and nothing else. Well Garcia looked good last year so they have 3 bats and nothing else? Gray is good, but he's not an ace and the rest of their staff is just as bad as the Twins, but I'm not aware of a stable of arms ready to contribute. 

They're not the yanks or dodgers. They aren't going to blow past the luxury tax. This feels a lot like the Arod deal when they went and got him then had to trade him 3 years later after they won 73, 72, and 71 games. Or maybe the Angels with Trout, Hamilton, and Pujols is a better, more recent example.

I'm certainly not saying teams shouldn't spend. It's way better for the sport to have teams like the Rangers out there taking a swing, but I'm not going to put money on them in 2022. Padres and Rangers making these splashes is good for the game, but isn't great for their teams getting Ws.

[KFEY93]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

Considering every single team in the Twins' division, even those in much smaller markets than the twin cities have debuted larger season payrolls than the Twins, I'm not sure I agree with you.

If Kansas City can afford a $141MM opening day payroll when they're all in, I just don't see the problem. Kansas City's stadium is old, it's not downtown, the local market is 1/2 the size of Minneapolis and they were traditionally a team who didn't play well.

The Texas Rangers play in Arlington. Population, 400k. 99sq/mi. Density 4.1k per square mile. Now, Dallas and Fort Worth are 20mi and 15mi away, respectively which would add about 2.0 million people.

The Twins play in Minneapolis. Population 420k. 57sq/mi. Density 6.0k per square mile. St.Paul, Population 311k adds 56sq/mi. Density 6.0k per square mile. Effectively, together, 731k, 113sq/mi. Density 6.0k per square mile. The twin cities metro 3.6MM people in 1,000 square miles. DFW is 7.6MM, but in an area nearly 10x larger at 9,200 square miles. 

Bottom line, the Pohlads are cheap and choose not to compete at a level many other teams in their income bracket choose.

This is the answer, yet somehow people still scratch their heads when we flounder year in and year out. 

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

Maybe Bally Sports has figured out how to get their broadcasts out further than a couple miles from Minneapolis, too? You know, since all of Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota, Iowa and parts of Wisconsin are all in the Twins' blackout area.

Fort Worth alone is bigger than either Dakota. The Dallas market and the Minneapolis market aren’t remotely close in size.

[Mike Sixel]

4 hours ago, Squirrel said:

I said this elsewhere but it seems that some teams (Rangers, Mets) have no strategy and are just buying to buy, while other teams have no strategy and are just sitting and watching ... ?‍♂️

And I'm sure teams have their strategies, but from my pov, it just is weird.

They had a tiny payroll. They could just pocket money, or not. 

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

Fort Worth alone is bigger than either Dakota. The Dallas market and the Minneapolis market aren’t remotely close in size.

The Twins' contract ends in 2023 and is $43MM vs. $66MM annually for the Rangers who have that same contract through 2034. The difference in TV contract revenue is here:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/lets-update-the-estimated-local-tv-revenue-for-mlb-teams/

Texas peaked its opening day payroll at $176MM - $23MM = $153MM, assuming ticket revenues, etc were similar. MLB stadiums must be located downtown in a heavily urban area like Target Field for best results, but Globe Life Park isn't. The Twins and Rangers have similar attendance, but Target Field has been far and away more expensive to attend.

	Twins		Rangers
	Price $	Att. x 1k	Price $	Att. x 1k
2010	31	40	21	31
2011	33	39	19	36
2012	33	34	20	43
2013	33	31	23	39
2014	33	28	24	34
2015	33	27	24	31
2016	33	24	24	33
2017	33	25	28	31
2018	33	24	27	26
2019	33	28	26	26
Average	32.8	30,000	23.6	33,000

 

	Twins		Rangers
	Act. Gate Rev	Max Gate Rev.	Act. Gate Rev	Max Gate Rev.
2010	100,440,000	100,440,000	52,731,000	73,143,000
2011	104,247,000	106,920,000	55,404,000	66,177,000
2012	90,882,000	106,920,000	69,660,000	69,660,000
2013	82,863,000	106,920,000	72,657,000	80,109,000
2014	74,844,000	106,920,000	66,096,000	83,592,000
2015	72,171,000	106,920,000	60,264,000	83,592,000
2016	64,152,000	106,920,000	64,152,000	83,592,000
2017	66,825,000	106,920,000	70,308,000	97,524,000
2018	64,152,000	106,920,000	56,862,000	94,041,000
2019	74,844,000	106,920,000	54,756,000	90,558,000
Total	795,420,000	1,062,720,000	622,890,000	821,988,000
Average	79,542,000	106,272,000	62,289,000	82,198,800

 

As you can clearly see, the Twins have brought in approximately $17MM more revenue in ticket sales per season on average than the Rangers. That virtually wipes out the difference in TV contract revenue. In fact, actual Twins revenues have exceeded the theoretical maximum Rangers revenues (assuming max attendance at average ticket price) from 2010-2013. Rangers attendance, on average is 10% higher than Twins attendance, but the Twins' ticket price has been nearly 40% higher.

So if TV and attendance revenues are essentially the same... why do the Twins lag behind the Rangers 20% in average and 30% in peak payroll?

	Twins	Rangers
	Payroll $MM	Payroll $MM
2010	98	55
2011	113	92
2012	94	121
2013	76	114
2014	86	136
2015	109	142
2016	108	144
2017	108	176
2018	132	144
2019	101	104
Total	1025	1228
Average	102.5	122.8

Maybe more fans buy Rangers merchandise because the Rangers have spent way more and won, on average, 7 more games per season? Btw, I'm using 2010-2019 because there isn't a lot of data available after 2019.

	Twins	Rangers
	Wins	Wins
2010	94	90
2011	63	96
2012	66	93
2013	66	91
2014	70	67
2015	83	88
2016	59	95
2017	85	78
2018	78	67
2019	101	78
Total	765	843
Average	77	84

Sources: Statista, Baseball Reference, Stevetheump

The Twins have every ability to compete and every single time a person sits down to do an analysis, they'll see that fact. The Twins' ownership just chooses to run their franchise very conservatively. Expanding revenue sharing to help the poor Twins or placing some hard cap right next to the salary floor just makes money hand over fist for owners like the Pohlad family and hamstrings owners who are actually dedicated to putting a high quality product on the field.

[lecroy24fan]

4 hours ago, TheLeviathan said:

Kiner-Falefa anyone?  Seems to be out of a job and plays a good SS.

See my post above. He'll play 3B for TEX.

[TheLeviathan]

1 hour ago, lecroy24fan said:

See my post above. He'll play 3B for TEX.

Hmmm...thought I read they may bring up Jung for 3B.

[lecroy24fan]

19 hours ago, TheLeviathan said:

Hmmm...thought I read they may bring up Jung for 3B.

But they just signed two major FA's so why not give him more time at AAA?

[Brock Beauchamp]

On 11/29/2021 at 5:07 PM, John Bonnes said:

I .... don't get it. Maybe they just have a lot more young talent than I'm aware of, but this feels like they're jumping the gun, or trying to load up on a loaded market for flipping purposes, but still ending up paying full price. 

I also don't get it.

[Otto von Ballpark]

34 minutes ago, lecroy24fan said:

But they just signed two major FA's so why not give him more time at AAA?

The Rangers can certainly wait out the new CBA, to see what kind of service time manipulation they can do with Jung. But it would seem pretty foolish to keep him at AAA longer than necessary, now that they've made major immediate MLB investments and Kiner-Falefa can be exchanged for another asset.

[Mike Sixel]

49 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I also don't get it.

You'd rather they pocket the money? These guys will be very good for years. I'm not sure it will work, but they are trying.

[lecroy24fan]

2 hours ago, Otto von Ballpark said:

The Rangers can certainly wait out the new CBA, to see what kind of service time manipulation they can do with Jung. But it would seem pretty foolish to keep him at AAA longer than necessary, now that they've made major immediate MLB investments and Kiner-Falefa can be exchanged for another asset.

Sure but also Jung has only played a season and a half or pro ball.