The Trade Deadline - Who Stays, Who Goes?

[Brock Beauchamp]

There are so many variables in play and I'm curious what some of you think this team will look like on the morning of July 31st. We can pretty easily predict that most (maybe all) of the expiring contracts will be gone but will the Twins move non-expiring contract players? Share your thoughts!

[Dave The Dastardly]

I can tell you who I hope is no longer in a Twins uniform:

Colome, Happ, Simmons, Donaldson and Sano.

 

Make room (playing time) for the kids.

[Mike Sixel]

Cruz, Colome, and Pineda.....though I'd like more, I think that's it. I do think Simmons is about 50/50 right now....

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 minute ago, Mike Sixel said:

Cruz, Colome, and Pineda.....though I'd like more, I think that's it. I do think Simmons is about 50/50 right now....

I think Simmons is close to 100%. He may not bring back much but he's still positive defensively (according to FG anyway) and teams always need glove-first middle infielders down the stretch.

[Mike Sixel]

11 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I think Simmons is close to 100%. He may not bring back much but he's still positive defensively (according to FG anyway) and teams always need glove-first middle infielders down the stretch.

My brain thinks that, the part of me that really wants him dealt so Gordon gets some SS time is just feeling dead right now....

[mike8791]

Why trade Simmons?  We have no one nearly ready to take his place and with the emphasis on pitching, they will never spend $ on one of the elite SS.  Most analyses I've read conclude Gordon is not a major league SS.  Lewis is also looked at as questionnable at SS.  Might as well plug probably the most important defensive position with known quantity like Simmons.

[Mike Sixel]

5 minutes ago, mike8791 said:

Why trade Simmons?  We have no one nearly ready to take his place and with the emphasis on pitching, they will never spend $ on one of the elite SS.  Most analyses I've read conclude Gordon is not a major league SS.  Lewis is also looked at as questionnable at SS.  Might as well plug probably the most important defensive position with known quantity like Simmons.

Because he's a FA at the end of the year.....

[yeahyabetcha]

4 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Because he's a FA at the end of the year.....

So?  If you get nothing for him and have to pay most all of his contract anyways, why not keep him as he is the only real SS on the roster.  I don’t quite understand the fascination with trading players so we can see AAA guys play.  Wouldn’t just going to a Saints game serve the same purpose?

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, yeahyabetcha said:

So?  If you get nothing for him and have to pay most all of his contract anyways, why not keep him as he is the only real SS on the roster.  I don’t quite understand the fascination with trading players so we can see AAA guys play.  Wouldn’t just going to a Saints game serve the same purpose?

You asked, I answered. You may not agree, but that's why. Plus, they could get lucky and get a real MLB player back (someday). It is very unlikely, but possible. They are not winning anything meaningful this year, how does it hurt anyone to have Polanco or Gordon play SS the rest of the year? It doesn't.

[Brock Beauchamp]

17 minutes ago, mike8791 said:

Why trade Simmons?  We have no one nearly ready to take his place and with the emphasis on pitching, they will never spend $ on one of the elite SS.  Most analyses I've read conclude Gordon is not a major league SS.  Lewis is also looked at as questionnable at SS.  Might as well plug probably the most important defensive position with known quantity like Simmons.

In a lost season, I see no reason to play Simmons and while Gordon may not be an MLB shortstop, moving Simmons opens up a lot of plate appearances for Nick so the Twins get a good look at him before they need to make a decision about protecting him on the 40-man this offseason.

[TheLeviathan]

8 minutes ago, yeahyabetcha said:

So?  If you get nothing for him and have to pay most all of his contract anyways, why not keep him as he is the only real SS on the roster.  I don’t quite understand the fascination with trading players so we can see AAA guys play.  Wouldn’t just going to a Saints game serve the same purpose?

Instead of paying that money for Simmons to occupy at-bats in a losing season and walk after the year, you pay that money for a lottery ticket young player and at-bats for another player that will be with you next year.

It's asset management.

[chpettit19]

9 minutes ago, yeahyabetcha said:

So?  If you get nothing for him and have to pay most all of his contract anyways, why not keep him as he is the only real SS on the roster.  I don’t quite understand the fascination with trading players so we can see AAA guys play.  Wouldn’t just going to a Saints game serve the same purpose?

Why does it matter if we watch "AAA" guys lose in Minneapolis or "ML" guys lose in Minneapolis? The season is lost and as a team building strategy it makes no sense to hold onto Simmons for the rest of the season when you can get ABs for guys who may actually be part of the future and have a better idea of if Gordon, Miranda, whoever can be a real part of the team. The rest of this season is about figuring out what holes need to be filled for next year. Finding out if Gordon can fill the SS hole (highly doubtful) or the Utility role (quite possible) is far more valuable than letting Simmons finish the year here. Not to mention the 40 man roster decisions that will be forced on the team this offseason. Need to know which current 40 man guys really deserve to be there and can't be jettisoned to protect a few of the young guys to avoid a Baddoo situation happening again next year.

As a fan you have the luxury of only caring about what is happening day to day on the field this year for the Twins. The FO doesn't have that luxury. They need to have an eye to the future as well. That's why you trade expiring contracts during a lost year. Every time.

[Dman]

I think the only player I see them trading that has multiple years would be Rogers.  The reasons I think that are this FO seems to feel relievers are fungible and good lefty relievers have brought back good returns at the deadline.  If the FO is going to make a move it will be with the relievers.

My go out on a limb pick would be Arraez.  With Polanco at 2nd and Miranda (low K rate high OPS) on the way and Gordon as a more versatile defensive player, if they could find a partner willing to give proper value I think the Twins would trade him. 

The Twins also have Steer on the way up with a good eye at the plate (K's as much as he walks) and not far off from him is Jullien who leads the minors in walks I believe.  Neither is likely the natural hitter Arraez is but they both can hit for power and have had 900 OPS's at points this season.  So if you look ahead I think they can afford to trade him early if a team is interested.  The return would have to big though as he has 4 years of control left.

[GNess]

Dman - your logic on Arraez is strong, however I think it is a mistake to trade a quality and rare hitter like Arraez.

[chpettit19]

18 minutes ago, Dman said:

I think the only player I see them trading that has multiple years would be Rogers.  The reasons I think that are this FO seems to feel relievers are fungible and good lefty relievers have brought back good returns at the deadline.  If the FO is going to make a move it will be with the relievers.

My go out on a limb pick would be Arraez.  With Polanco at 2nd and Miranda (low K rate high OPS) on the way and Gordon as a more versatile defensive player, if they could find a partner willing to give proper value I think the Twins would trade him. 

The Twins also have Steer on the way up with a good eye at the plate (K's as much as he walks) and not far off from him is Jullien who leads the minors in walks I believe.  Neither is likely the natural hitter Arraez is but they both can hit for power and have had 900 OPS's at points this season.  So if you look ahead I think they can afford to trade him early if a team is interested.  The return would have to big though as he has 4 years of control left.

Totally agree with the assessment of Arraez in conjunction with our MiLB system, but I just don't know how valuable he is on the block. What is a team realistically giving up for a player of his ilk? I have no idea, but I'd guess it's not impressive. Maybe a couple low A fliers? I'd rather have Arraez than a couple lottery tickets. (Full disclosure: Arraez is my favorite current Twin so may be biased here)

[Dman]

4 minutes ago, GNess said:

Dman - your logic on Arraez is strong, however I think it is a mistake to trade a quality and rare hitter like Arraez.

It could backfire for sure as he is such a good hitter but he does have some weaknesses. Trading him with 4 years left is probably too early but just looking ahead he doesn't profile with the power stroke this FO likes and the guys behind him all do and they also have a pretty good eye at the plate which is Arraez's calling card as well.  They can and probably will keep him another year but I think after that he won't profile as well as the guys coming up.  It was an out on a limb suggestion that is unlikely to happen but looking ahead you can see happening.

[Dman]

5 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Totally agree with the assessment of Arraez in conjunction with our MiLB system, but I just don't know how valuable he is on the block. What is a team realistically giving up for a player of his ilk? I have no idea, but I'd guess it's not impressive. Maybe a couple low A fliers? I'd rather have Arraez than a couple lottery tickets. (Full disclosure: Arraez is my favorite current Twin so may be biased here)

That is likely the problem. He doesn't hit for power and he doesn't run all that well but he is a tough out and is likely going to hit around 300 year in and year out so you always have that in your back pocket.  He could still develop more power but it will never be his strength.  So yes the return might not be there because he has some flaws.  Might be best to wait a year anyway or move him in the offseason if they can find a deal that makes sense.  I just don't see him as a long term fit with what I see coming.

[chpettit19]

3 minutes ago, Dman said:

That is likely the problem. He doesn't hit for power and he doesn't run all that well but he is a tough out and is likely going to hit around 300 year in and year out so you always have that in your back pocket.  He could still develop more power but it will never be his strength.  So yes the return might not be there because he has some flaws.  Might be best to wait a year anyway or move him in the offseason if they can find a deal that makes sense.  I just don't see him as a long term fit with what I see coming.

I think it will be an interesting next couple years with him and Polanco. If I remember correctly Polanco gets rather expensive in his option year. Between the prospects you mentioned and Polanco there is certainly a lot of competition for the spots Arraez fills best. I don't know what the 40 man timelines are like for any of the young guys, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the Twins try to stretch the young guys as long as possible in the minors to get beyond Sano's deal for sure and possibly even the tail end of Donaldson's. The real problem is none of these guys are true SSs. 1 of them being a SS would solve a lot of this on it's own.

[Dman]

2 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I think it will be an interesting next couple years with him and Polanco. If I remember correctly Polanco gets rather expensive in his option year. Between the prospects you mentioned and Polanco there is certainly a lot of competition for the spots Arraez fills best. I don't know what the 40 man timelines are like for any of the young guys, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the Twins try to stretch the young guys as long as possible in the minors to get beyond Sano's deal for sure and possibly even the tail end of Donaldson's. The real problem is none of these guys are true SSs. 1 of them being a SS would solve a lot of this on it's own.

The only player they have that might be close to ready at SS is Palacios and even though he is having a great year at AA likely is no better of a hitter than Simmons at the MLB level.  To solve SS they would likely need to trade Berrios or sign one of the better ones in FA. 

With the Lewis ACL injury I don't see him as a great fit for short anymore.  This is a guy who slipped and messed up his ACL do you really want him twisting and turning and making throws from short when it seems like his knee's might not hold out that well?  I think center field would make more sense.  I don't think Javier has what it takes to be anything more than a utility player.  Cavaceo is a long ways away.  So they are not in good shape at SS system wise at all.  I can see why they reached for the Wisconsin kid in the draft.  They need more up the middle guys.

Even if Polanco gets more expensive I still think they could get rid of Arraez as they are incredibly stacked at 2nd base in the system right now and likely into the future because any SS that doesn't make it can play there.  If they can get value from Arraez they should, if they can't then yeah keep him his numbers are solid and his production should remain at decent levels especially if used as a utility player.

[Mike Sixel]

There is zero good reason to trade Kepler, without being floored with an offer. Indeed, I'd consider putting him in CF or LF until Buxton returns.

[Brock Beauchamp]

17 minutes ago, Dman said:

With the Lewis ACL injury I don't see him as a great fit for short anymore.  This is a guy who slipped and messed up his ACL do you really want him twisting and turning and making throws from short when it seems like his knee's might not hold out that well?

While I'm very skeptical of Lewis remaining at short, I don't believe he should be judged for slipping on ice, which can cause all sorts of strains and injuries the human body wouldn't face on solid ground. 

[DJL44]

I voted Cruz, Pineda, Simmons, Robles, Duffey, Rogers and Sano.

I'm only sure about the first 4 names on the list; if they don't move Cruz, Pineda, Simmons and Robles they screwed up. 

I would have voted for Colome and Happ but I don't think any contenders will want them even if the Twins pay the salary. They're the kind of veteran pitchers you see eating innings on bad teams.

I think Duffey and Rogers will be in demand and they'll be able to make a deal that is right for the organization with each of them. Moving Sano might be wishful thinking.

[Brock Beauchamp]

4 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

I would have voted for Colome and Happ but I don't think any contenders will want them even if the Twins pay the salary.

I think people are underestimating how easy it will be to move Happ for modest salary relief. Plenty of teams need help at the back of a rotation, even if it's not good help. Someone out there will likely take a shot at Happ for $1-2m.

[chpettit19]

55 minutes ago, Dman said:

The only player they have that might be close to ready at SS is Palacios and even though he is having a great year at AA likely is no better of a hitter than Simmons at the MLB level.  To solve SS they would likely need to trade Berrios or sign one of the better ones in FA. 

With the Lewis ACL injury I don't see him as a great fit for short anymore.  This is a guy who slipped and messed up his ACL do you really want him twisting and turning and making throws from short when it seems like his knee's might not hold out that well?  I think center field would make more sense.  I don't think Javier has what it takes to be anything more than a utility player.  Cavaceo is a long ways away.  So they are not in good shape at SS system wise at all.  I can see why they reached for the Wisconsin kid in the draft.  They need more up the middle guys.

Even if Polanco gets more expensive I still think they could get rid of Arraez as they are incredibly stacked at 2nd base in the system right now and likely into the future because any SS that doesn't make it can play there.  If they can get value from Arraez they should, if they can't then yeah keep him his numbers are solid and his production should remain at decent levels especially if used as a utility player.

They need way more SS prospects for sure. I'm just saying the potential traffic jam of 2B/3B guys we're discussing wouldn't be such a problem if any of them could play SS. You have a nice little infield rotation if they weren't all so limited defensively. I think Lewis is likely Buxton's replacement and agree he probably doesn't stick at SS, but I certainly give him the chance to stick their for a year or 2 after he comes back. He can move to CF at any time so I'd keep pushing him at SS if there's any sign he can stick.

I'm a believer in the idea that you cheer for the name on the front of the jersey, not the one on the back, so I'm all for moving anyone you can get value for if it makes the team better. If that means moving Arraez, Buxton, Berrios, Polanco, Kirilloff, whoever I'm all for it. I don't believe in moving any major leaguer to make room for untested prospects, though, unless you're filling a need in another area. I'm open to an Arraez trade for an arm because we have guys who can cover his spots that we more or less know can perform at the ML level. I'm excited for Miranda, Steer, et al, but they're still prospects until they aren't. Wouldn't move on from a batting title contender to make room for any of those guys until they've shown it in the bigs.

[Cap'n Piranha]

If they're not under contract for next year, they need to be traded, even if you have to cover the entire salary to get back a C- 25 year old in low A.  If you don't trade them, you have to pay the salary anyways, so you may as well get back something.

If  the offer is good enough, I would also trade anyone not under contract for 2023, especially given the non-zero chance of a work stoppage next year (maybe contracts will not apply, maybe they will; I don't know enough to say for sure).

What I'm really worried about is that the Twins go 11-4 out of the break, and the front office decides not to trade, only to have things fall apart in August (consecutive series against HOU, CWS, TB, CLE, NYY, BOS, and MIL; once the Twins finish playing STL on 8/1, they don't get another game against a team with a losing record until 8/31).

[yeahyabetcha]

2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

You asked, I answered. You may not agree, but that's why. Plus, they could get lucky and get a real MLB player back (someday). It is very unlikely, but possible. They are not winning anything meaningful this year, how does it hurt anyone to have Polanco or Gordon play SS the rest of the year? It doesn't.

It might not make a difference to you if the Twins win 60, 70 or 80 games this year , but it might to Mr’s  Falvey and Baldelli.  Simmons may still be the option this year and next.

[DJL44]

3 minutes ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

What I'm really worried about is that the Twins go 11-4 out of the break, 

Can't say I'm worried about that at all. I also don't worry about lightning strikes or bear attacks in my neighborhood.

[Dman]

27 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

. I'm excited for Miranda, Steer, et al, but they're still prospects until they aren't. Wouldn't move on from a batting title contender to make room for any of those guys until they've shown it in the bigs.

Totally agree with this.  Prospects can look great but if they cannot conquer MLB then they can't help.  Even now Steer is in a slump and might be hurt as he hasn't played in a while.  Jullien isn't hitting as well as he was and they both could flame out at AA or AAA.  You can't bank on prospects but you have to build with them. 

I do think Miranda with the low K rate and high contact rate is about as close to a sure thing as you can get especially since he is doing so well at AAA.  All indicators point to a successful transition.  He won't likely have a 900 OPS in MLB but neither does Arraez.  

But to your point I have seen way too many prospects on the cusp of playing MLB that failed to trust that a prospect will be able to replace someone who is producing at the MLB level.  Still if they can get something they need for Arraez I think they can cover 2nd base just fine.

[chpettit19]

37 minutes ago, Dman said:

Totally agree with this.  Prospects can look great but if they cannot conquer MLB then they can't help.  Even now Steer is in a slump and might be hurt as he hasn't played in a while.  Jullien isn't hitting as well as he was and they both could flame out at AA or AAA.  You can't bank on prospects but you have to build with them. 

I do think Miranda with the low K rate and high contact rate is about as close to a sure thing as you can get especially since he is doing so well at AAA.  All indicators point to a successful transition.  He won't likely have a 900 OPS in MLB but neither does Arraez.  

But to your point I have seen way too many prospects on the cusp of playing MLB that failed to trust that a prospect will be able to replace someone who is producing at the MLB level.  Still if they can get something they need for Arraez I think they can cover 2nd base just fine.

I don't disagree with any of that.

[chpettit19]

43 minutes ago, yeahyabetcha said:

It might not make a difference to you if the Twins win 60, 70 or 80 games this year , but it might to Mr’s  Falvey and Baldelli.  Simmons may still be the option this year and next.

If it makes a difference whether they win 60, 70, or 80 games this year to Falvey or Baldelli they shouldn't be in their positions anymore. The season is lost. Winning 80 games instead of 60 this year shouldn't matter. Especially to Falvey. At least not in the terms of whether or not to keep an old SS on an expiring deal. Falvey's job is now to look to the future. His moves this last offseason failed. He needs to be worried about figuring out why that is and coming up with a strategy to fix it and get things moving back in the right direction next year. Baldelli should be doing everything he can to coach up his players and put them in the best situation to succeed just like always. But his priority should be getting the young guys who may be part of the future to improve as much as possible between now and the end of this season. 

If you think the win total matters to them because of their job security then they should be fired now if this was a make or break season for them. The plan for the entire organization should be to be back in contention for the division title next year and moving forward (and in turn threatening for WS titles). That saves their jobs and this comes out looking like a 1 year misstep.

Simmons can still be the option next year after they trade him this year. He'll be a FA and can sign here again if it's the best fit for both sides. Still not a reason to keep an aging SS on an expiring deal during a lost season.