Could Dobnak be an All Star?

[Doctor Gast]

 Could Dobnak be an all star? With this terrific infield, I believe he could be. When Donaldson was in the line up Dobnak shined. Now that we have Simmons , Dobnak's stats & record will       be       very good because he's                           an excellent ground ball pitcher . Many aren't very excited about Dobnak, even as a 5th starter but I believe he'll surprise a lot of people

[jud6312]

I'd say the chances of that happening are about the same as La Tortuga winning a batting title. 

 

I think he's got a role as a 5th starter/swing guy, but his splits last year got worse each month, which would tell me that teams were adapting to him after seeing more film on him or he was wearing out. Neither of those bode well for All Star chances.

[baul0010]

 

I'd say the chances of that happening are about the same as La Tortuga winning a batting title. 

 

I think he's got a role as a 5th starter/swing guy, but his splits last year got worse each month, which would tell me that teams were adapting to him after seeing more film on him or he was wearing out. Neither of those bode well for All Star chances.

 

Exactly what I was thinking.  I'd be happy with serviceable again?  All-Star seems like a ceiling that's a bit too high for Dobnak. 

[AceWrigley]

Do not dis The Dobnak.

[twins_89]

After his awful second half of last season I'll be happy if Dobnak can settle in as a competent 5th starter. At this point I am somewhat worried that the league figured out his unusual pitching profile. 

[Doctor Gast]

I know that Dobnak doesn't have flashy stuff but what he does well is force grounders. When Donaldson is on the field his grounders normally don't go through. When he isn't they do, therefore Dobnak has to try to be cute & he's not good at that. So both Donaldson and Simmons are on the field, the ball isn't going to get through. So he doesn't have to try to be cute.

[baul0010]

 

I know that Dobnak doesn't have flashy stuff but what he does well is force grounders. When Donaldson is on the field his grounders normally don't go through. When he isn't they do, therefore Dobnak has to try to be cute & he's not good at that. So both Donaldson and Simmons are on the field, the ball isn't going to get through. So he doesn't have to try to be cute.

It didn't look like he was trying to be cute.  The second half of last season it looked like he forgot how to throw strikes.  He used to be slightly out of the zone and by the end of last year was missing the zone wildly.

[h2oface]

Dobnak is fools gold, and spent already. If he is in the rotation, it will not be pretty.

[Wizard11]

I like the Dobber as our 6th starter and durable long reliever.  Either way he is going to pitch some meaningful innings this year. The Twins will be a better team if they prioritize a 5th starter that can successfully get thru a major league lineup 2-3 times.  IMO this requires a higher strikeout skill set than the Dobber presents

[Doctor Gast]

It didn't look like he was trying to be cute. The second half of last season it looked like he forgot how to throw strikes. He used to be slightly out of the zone and by the end of last year was missing the zone wildly.

Let me clarify what I mean by cute. When Dobnak can't get ground outs he needs try to get SOs by going out of his groove and try to hit the corners ( Being cute). The problem is that Dobnak is a nobody. So he doesn't get the close ones, at the same time loses his groove and sometimes throws a little wild

[prouster]

Could Dobnak be an all star? With this terrific infield, I believe he could be. When Donaldson was in the line up Dobnak shined. Now that we have Simmons , Dobnak's stats & record will be very good because he's an excellent ground ball pitcher . Many aren't very excited about Dobnak, even as a 5th starter but I believe he'll surprise a lot of people

I’d be really surprised if he made the All Star team, but you never know.

 

At the very least, the better infield defense should help him be a quality back end starter.

[Dodecahedron]

I don't know if he could be an all-star (I view that as more of a popularity contest), but I think he is a good candidate to squeeze out a no-hitter over the course of his career.

[sampleSizeOfOne]

I like this discussion.

Dobnak does stand to benefit from a better infield.

 

It may be a stretch, but All-Star results are not out of the the question, as it is playing to his strengths.

 

Likewise, La Tortuga has elite contact skills, which is an ingredient of a batting title contender. It is a stretch of a similar magnitude, but at least there's a chance.

 

Anyway, it'll be fun to see how the season plays out

[bighat]

As others have said, I'd be happy if Dobnak can consistently give the Twins 5 innings and keep his ERA under 4.5 runs.

[RaoulDuke]

I think Dobnak can be a good 5th starter and will certainly benefit from the strong defense, but I don't see a lot of ceiling past that.  He had a great stretch when he changed his pitch mix up and started using the slider as a weapon more but the league caught up to his new approach.

 

In the end I think he is a guy that is going to find the most success as a reliever so he doesn't get exposed 2nd and 3rd time through the lineup. 

 

 

[jud6312]

 

I like this discussion.

Dobnak does stand to benefit from a better infield.

 

It may be a stretch, but All-Star results are not out of the the question, as it is playing to his strengths.

 

Likewise, La Tortuga has elite contact skills, which is an ingredient of a batting title contender. It is a stretch of a similar magnitude, but at least there's a chance.

 

Anyway, it'll be fun to see how the season plays out

My hope is he'll never get enough ABs to make us even think about it again.

[Doctor Gast]

 

I don't know if he could be an all-star (I view that as more of a popularity contest), but I think he is a good candidate to squeeze out a no-hitter over the course of his career.

Totally agree. All Stars Games is all political even if he does well, the odds he won't make. But wanted to draw attention for us to be surprised.

[Rosterman]

Well, if we now can field groundballs, then the Twins need to sign Brandon Kintzler as their closer. Dobnak is that nice arm to have in reserve. Is he a starter> Can he be a bullpen force? Right now, the Twins have him, Smeltzer and Thorpe battling for a roster spot with Thorpe in the lead because they can't option him out.

 

I wonder if the Twins wish they still had Wisler on the team.

[Fatbat]

If Dobber goes 12-6 with a sub 4 era... The twins will be a playoff team. Allstar in 2022 maybe

[Thegrin]

Do not dis da Tortisse!

[Doctor Gast]

I was disappointed in yesterday game that Simmons wasn't starting behind our gballer Dobnak. I thought it would give us plenty of opportunities to see Simmons in action. Instead I was pleasantly surprised to see our gballer pitch 3 shutout, 6 SO innings.

[beckmt]

Too many decent starters is a nice problem to have.  We still have 3 of these starters FA after this year, so Dobnak has a role.  We shall see how he does.

[Dman]

 

I was disappointed in yesterday game that Simmons wasn't starting behind our gballer Dobnak. I thought it would give us plenty of opportunities to see Simmons in action. Instead I was pleasantly surprised to see our gballer pitch 3 shutout, 6 SO innings.

 

You know I probably don't give Dobnak the respect he deserves.  He really pitched well on Saturday.  My knock on him is that when he gets ahead in the count he can't put hitters away and sometimes ends up in these long battles that move his pitch count up and tires him out.  If he can find an out pitch I think he is as good as any of the other pitchers the Twins have.  Batters really have a tough time getting good contact on his stuff but sometimes they foul balls away like crazy.  A put away pitch could make him elite IMO.  I think they said he was working on a new grip and he K'd 6 of 9 batters so that is encouraging.   We'll see how he does as we get closer to the regular season but if Saturday is the new norm the Twins are going to have a hard time keeping him out of the rotation.  

[jimbo92107]

Dobnak will be a mid-rotation horse for the next decade. He will eat up innings with ground balls, keep his team in games consistently, but he may never rise to the level of All Star. His value to the team will be more than they pay him.

[AceWrigley]

A right -handed Jim Kaat?

[Aichiman]

I think he can do it!

[gunnarthor]

He's a nice story and his family had commented in a few places on social media how proud they are of him but, no, he's not going to be an all-star.

[ashbury]

Randy Dobnak, Übermensch

[Dantes929]

I think it should be noted that Dobnak in his horrible year was 6-4 with a 4.05 ERA.    Getting shelled in 3 of his last 4 games might have been the league "figuring him out".  On the other hand , like Duffey and Scott Diamond, the figuring out part might have been, for whatever reasons, the ball wasn't breaking  as much or   wasn't located like it was when they were having success.    I think Dobnak has the stuff to be good.  Probably not all star good.    .    

[jimbo92107]

 

I know that Dobnak doesn't have flashy stuff but what he does well is force grounders. When Donaldson is on the field his grounders normally don't go through. When he isn't they do, therefore Dobnak has to try to be cute & he's not good at that. So both Donaldson and Simmons are on the field, the ball isn't going to get through. So he doesn't have to try to be cute.

This could be the ultimate observation on Dobnak. The way he induces ground balls requires good infield play. If he gets great infield play, he could shock the world with an ERA in the mid 2's, while regularly lasting into the seventh inning. With Donaldson, Simmons and Polanco, potentially you've got an infield that verges on great. And so we get

 

D(ERA) = 1/FP (3B + SS + 2B) where FP is Fielding Percentage. Kinda sorta.