Could Dobnak be an All Star?

[Brock Beauchamp]

Apparently on the post-game Zoom Dobnak mentioned that the coaching staff approached him a week ago with data how to improve his slider, giving it more break.

 

It's Spring Training and "best shape my life", "learned a new pitch", yada yada yada... but it's something worth noting and keeping an eye on in the next two weeks.

[twins1095]

I want to go on record because it's pretty clear. Dobnak is going to have a really strong season. The Twins infield defense and the changes in the ball will allow him to thrive. 

 

He has legit plus stuff, though many folks just focus on velocity. The vertical movement on his fastball is the best of any starter in the league by the metrics (99th percentile). Combined with plus command and secondary pitches that grade out to above average puts him in the category to be Marcus Stroman type pitcher.

[Doctor Gast]

With a poor outing by Shoemaker. Dobnak should have the edge at #5 starter. Actually now I like Dobnak better than Happ for #4.

[sampleSizeOfOne]

So...  my burning question. Will he make the all-star game as a starter, or a reliever?

 

By the by, where is this year's all-star game going to be played?

[IndianaTwin]

 

So...  my burning question. Will he make the all-star game as a starter, or a reliever?

 

By the by, where is this year's all-star game going to be played?

 

Atlanta. 

[Major League Ready]

An All-Star is a stretch. I would be real happy if this new slider gave him the out pitch he needs to be a middle of the rotation work horse for the next few years.

[Brock Beauchamp]

With a poor outing by Shoemaker. Dobnak should have the edge at #5 starter. Actually now I like Dobnak better than Happ for #4.

Happ is in the rotation if he’s healthy and likely the same for Shoemaker.

 

It’s a bad idea to discard veteran starters before Opening Day. You’re going to need starters 6-8 soon enough and it only reduces depth to drop even an ineffective veteran before a real pitch is thrown.

 

Especially in this weird hangover season where so many of your 6-9 depth guys barely got in any work last season. It’s hard to predict what will happen if you need to lean on a Lewis Thorpe for 120 innings after the cluster**** of 2020.

[Doctor Gast]

Understood, I'm not discarding anyone at this point. I agree we'll need maybe 7 starters to begin the season. Piggyback at least Happ and another for long relief. I also agree that we shouldn't put any stock on 2020.

I'm just expressing my evaluation so far this ST. And that I'm very impressed with Dobnak, if managed properly he could have a very productive season.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Dobnak now at a 0/18 BB:K in 13.1 IP this spring.

 

Nice.

[Doctor Gast]

Dobnak signed a 5yr. Contract,

[Brock Beauchamp]

Dobnak signed a 5yr. Contract,

Well, didn’t see that coming.

 

Good for Randy.

[Channing1964]

Absolutely he could....but so can Cave.

[Channing1964]

EXTEND THE CAVE MAN!

[WyoTwin]

I think he will have at least one all star appearance. He will start off strong at least one year.

[nicksaviking]

Kyle Hendricks seems to be the league's premier high-contact, low-strikeout sinkerballer at the moment. He's put up pretty good numbers for the better part of a decade despite the high contact and low strikeouts, but he's still never been an All Star.

[sampleSizeOfOne]

Has a knuckle baller ever pitched in the all star game?

 

Just curious...

[Brock Beauchamp]

Has a knuckle baller ever pitched in the all star game?

 

Just curious...

Oh, definitely. In just the past 15-20 years, a time when the knuckle was basically on its deathbed, Wakefield and Dickey were all stars.

[amjgt]

I was skeptical that Wakefield had been an All Star, so I looked. Sure enough, he was an all star in 2009. His season-long stats didn't jump off the page, so I figured he had a really good first half. Nope. In fact, he barely played after the all star break.

 

ERA: mid 4s
K: 5.0K/9

WHIP: 1.44
ERA+: League Average

 

Record... yep. This is why. 11-3 in the first half

 

Tim freaking Wakefield... All Star. What a world.

 

 

 

[sampleSizeOfOne]

 

Oh, definitely. In just the past 15-20 years, a time when the knuckle was basically on its deathbed, Wakefield and Dickey were all stars.

If asked to name knucklers in the 21st century, i woulda come up with those.

 

So yeah, i actually take Wakefield as my personal Dobnak comp, being perceived as a low ceiling workman-like pitcher. So now i definitely don't believe the allstar game is too great a stretch.

 

And my impression is Wakefield too had an interesting contract for a stretch: being a mutual perpetual option for the next season with the Red Sox at $1m. 

 

Dickey i knew had earned Ace status for a period after leaving the Twins, so not at all surprised he made the allstar game.

[IndianaTwin]

 

Has a knuckle baller ever pitched in the all star game?

 

Just curious...

Didn’t look to see if they pitched, but Phil Niekro was picked five times, Hoyt Wilhelm four and Wilbur Wood three to name a few. 

[Monkeypaws]

I think a more realistic question is "Can Randy Dobnak be a reliable major league pitcher?"

[DocBauer]

Once in a while, I forget if I've commented on a post or not, lol. I guess I didn't as I ran through everything here and didn't see myself. (Unless I was self-blinded somehow). But I really enjoyed most posts. Very interesting stuff and perspectives.

 

The All Star game has always been a popularity contest. But it seems to me, years past, there was more immediate knowledge to the voters to make selections. I guess the saving grace the last decade or so is the staff and bench usuaĺly actually being deserving.

 

To the OP, can Dobnak be an All Star? Yes, based on his story and continued growth and experience. Deserving? Probably not. And I'm saying this as a fan of Dobber. He's shown in his short career...and bullet rise through the milb system...that the Twins may have a "decent" arm to work with. A guy with a floor as a 6th SP who could rise to 5th SP option with enough potential to MAYBE be a legit #4.

 

But you don't have to be a baseball savant to look at his new slider and how wicked it looks to realize/speculate just how good he MIGHT be with his control and GB tendancy combined with AT LEAST a few more K's. If he can maintain that new slider consistently, we are talking about a LEGITIMATE #3 SP. And that's crazy to think about, but so is his whole story. But the craziest part is, the Twins said, "try this". And he did. A few days later he used it and it was suddenly a potentially devastating pitch. Just days later! And I know the whole "ST doesn't matter" mantra. Except, he wasn't throwing it in just junk time. He was throwing it against ML hitters. Replay shows it as WICKED!

 

I refuse to annoit him to any level at this point. Proof comes over time. But that new pitch with the rest of his ability...how can you not be intrigued and excited about him at this point?

 

Just to re-interate, when have you EVER heard of a pitching coach/staff that suggested a change and a couple days later that pitcher just raked with that change? I mean, WOW, how do you describe or quantify how crazy that is? Only time will tell if he can harness that pitch with everything else he has. Much less how good he could be.

 

I will not predict so much growth and production to be an All Star and don't care.

 

But I dare say he will be amongst the top SP in GS and IP in 2021 unless health/luck blesses the Twins rotation in 2021. Because every rotation ALWAYS needs more than 5. I am also very optomistic that Thorpe is going to be important as the 7th SP and bullpen option for this season. With his head on straight and body ready to go, Thorpe is going to make a difference.

 

But I digress.

 

Dobber may never be anything more than #3 SP. He might take his new slider and become a #2 SP and dominate!

 

All Star? Wonderful idea. Dobber and his family would love the idea. Earning every $ of his new contract for a winning team the next several season's? Priceless!

[Dodecahedron]

It's not surprising people are skeptical of knuckleballers. There have been fewer than 90 pitchers who were strictly defined as "knuckleball pitchers" in MLB's ~120 years. There were only around 170 pitchers who used the pitch with any regularity. People can't get their minds around the idea. Stats-minded people can't explain it. Velocity gurus can't see anything good. Peripheral statistics, designed for standard hurlers, often do not show anything impressive. 

 

Sometimes you just gotta sit back and enjoy the results. In fact, I would say this is the #1 thing we should do for any player.

[Steve Lein]

 

I refuse to annoit him to any level at this point. Proof comes over time. But that new pitch with the rest of his ability...how can you not be intrigued and excited about him at this point?

 

 

I'm not disagreeing with anything you said here, just wanted to respond to the "Proof comes over time" comment, as I love Randy Dobnak and it was a personal crusade of mine to spew out the numbers showing just how consistent he had been in his rise to the majors, which was ridiculously so.

 

The final tally of the stat sequence I liked to throw out to show this, was the following:

 

Randy Dobnak, from the Midwest league all the way to the majors (may of 2018 through august of 2020), did not allow more than 4 runs in any game over a period 67 appearances.

 

In that time frame, he went 28-11 with 2 saves, a 2.06 ERA, .232 BAA, 1.06 WHIP, and 3.62:1 K/BB ratio over 324 innings pitched.

 

I know all of that is not the majors, where I agree proof could still be necessary, but that's a significant span of time to do something like that.

 

Count me in the category who thought Dobnak should have been handed a rotation spot before any free agent signings were made. He'll be in the rotation to stay before May is over, book it. And if that slider unlocks some strikeout potential, All-Star is certainly possible in the future.

 

(knocking on wood as I remember that Corey Kluber was never really a great prospect and didn't turn into a Cy Young pitcher until he had a few years of experience in the majors... with Derek Falvey running Cleveland's pitching development department...)

[LVTwinsfan]

No

[rv78]

Was this article meant to be posted on April Fools Day?

[Aggies7]

So many things that didn’t age well on this thread

[BeatTheRich]

Dobnak is a starter, not a reliever. Put Luis Arraez at catcher and see how he fares. Try Nelson Cruz as a centerfielder.

 

Dobnak established himself as a viable starting pitcher in spring training, only to get shunted to the back of the line on opening day.

 

Free Randy Dobnak. He deserves better.

[Doctor Gast]

In the Twins/ Angels season opener article, I stated that I didn't watch the game but by the results I thought that Dobnak was broken. I thought that because Donaldson was on the field, that he'd pull up the slack due to Simmons absence. As I watched the game video I saw that I was wrong. What I saw was Donaldson had dialed way down as not to provoke any leg problems. Therefore not making any easy routine plays which he had magnificently done in the past. I watched Donaldson look at grounders while Polanco makes valiant attempts.

My point is we can't count on Donaldson to take up the slack right now (although I hope that changes). I've changed my opinion that Dobnak is broken, our defense is broken and needs to be fixed. Dobnak had 4 SOs and did everything that was expected of him. He gave up grounders that should have been fielded.

There have been many ideal situations that Dobnak could've pitched while Simmons was on the field but didn't. Now that Simmons isn't on the field they've decided to use Dobnak, it doesn't make sense. So I don't blame Dobnak in the least. Although he's blamed, criticized and have these horrendous stats that many people like to base everything on.