Front Page: Bumgarner V. Wheeler: Who Should the Twins Pursue?

[sweetmusicviola16]

Odorizzi was also acquired by trade and Wheeler was traded early on in his career.

[old nurse]

 

True, but Wheeler will cost you a draft pick along with at least a 4 year deal.

If you think you are getting a front line starter for all four years versus a slim chance for 7 years of a player, take the known.

[Mike Sixel]

 

True, but Wheeler will cost you a draft pick along with at least a 4 year deal.

 

A second round pick....for the better player.

[stringer bell]

I like MadBum and think the Twins could use a solid lefty. I think the good-hitting Bumgarner will prefer to stay in the NL, but go for the best available talent.

[alphanumeric]

 

Wheeler without question. Bumgartner is washed up.

He had a 3.90 era this year.  I wouldn't say his first ever season with an era above 3.37 means the guy is washed up.  Verlander posted a 3.86 era with Detroit the season he was traded and was 4 years older than madbum is now.

[Physics Guy]

 

I'm tired of the narrative that says we cannot go out and get Cole personally... I want Cole or Strassburg (if he opts out).

I don't disagree with this.  The Twins have the money, but I do doubt they will put so much money into one pitcher.  The problem is, one of them has to want to come here.  It can happen, but I doubt the Twins are high on either one of their lists.  It's possible that Wheeler and MadBum can be had for not much more than Cole ($40M per season, vs $35M for Cole).

[Major League Ready]

 

Verlander and Greinke were acquired via trade.

 

I failed to quote the post I was responding to that suggested we could acquire a player still under their 1st contract (cheap) with 3 years of control. This is why I said "as described above". The point being large contracts on 34+ y/o SPs. I would prefer to sign 30 y/o free agents.

[Major League Ready]

 

He had a 3.90 era this year.  I wouldn't say his first ever season with an era above 3.37 means the guy is washed up.  Verlander posted a 3.86 era with Detroit the season he was traded and was 4 years older than madbum is now.

 

Verlander is a unicorn. It is very rare that a SP maintains this level of performance at age 36. We all know the normal decline and when it starts so to ignore because one or two guys defy the odds is not a good decision making practice. 

[Twins33]

I'm tired of the narrative that says we cannot go out and get Cole personally... I want Cole or Strassburg (if he opts out).

Stras already opted out. There was a deadline of a few days after the WS.

[Twins33]

Both, but if only one then Wheeler.

[AlwaysinModeration]

I would happily take any two of Strasburg, Bumgarner, Wheeler, Ryu, or Hamels. And if the Twins could only land one, I’d prefer them in that order.

[ChrisKnutson]

Hopefully we come away from the offseason with one of Wheeler or Bumgarner, but if we fail to land either I think this could be a decent backup plan.

 

Jose Berrios ($5.4M)

Dallas Keuchel (3yr/$13M)

Jake Odorizzi ($17.8M)

Michael Pineda (1yr/$12M)

Rick Porcello (1yr/$11M)

[Twodogs]

I think from the reports that I have heard is that madbum is probably going to the Braves, close to where he grew up. So it will probably have to be Wheeler that the Twins pursue?

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I would happily take any two of Strasburg, Bumgarner, Wheeler, Ryu, or Hamels. And if the Twins could only land one, I’d prefer them in that order.

if it’s Ryu and Hamels I’m very upset

[Mike Sixel]

if it’s Ryu and Hamels I’m very upset

They'll just be in this same spot again next year.... Needing two or more pitchers

[Trov]

If I had to pick between the two, as the question that is posed asked, I would go Bumgarner.  I get Wheeler may have the "upside" but pitchers like Bumgarner do not come around often.   He made it as a young man and excelled.  He hit some bumps in the road and came back swinging.  He is a gamer that will give you everything he has when needed.  I believe that as he loses velocity as he ages, he will know how to get the most out of what he has.  

 

Wheeler on the other had I am not sold he will know how to pitch when his velocity fails him.  I could be wrong, but for aging pithcers, knowing how to work with what you have is important and believe Bumgarner is more likely to do that over Wheeler.  

[Battle ur tail off]

I'd take either. I think the play is to sign one of these guys, make sure Odorizi is locked down, offer Pineda a fairly cheap deal and tell him he owes us, then make a trade for a younger arm you think you can slot into the top 3 of your rotation for quite a few years. 

 

That way, you would have 5 pitchers ready to go. Of course, Pineda woulnd't be able to throw right away and even when he is, you will have that minor league depth to help out if and when someone gets hurt. 

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

They could have traded for Gallen last year, and passed. Not sure what other young, really good, pitcher will ever be traded....

[nicksaviking]

 

They could have traded for Gallen last year, and passed. Not sure what other young, really good, pitcher will ever be traded....

 

He kind of came out of nowhere, I think it's a bit premature to call him really good.

 

And how do you know they passed? He was traded for a top 60 prospect and a SS at that. If the Twins are going to be trading Royce Lewis, I'd want it to be for a better pitcher than Zac Gallan

[Battle ur tail off]

 

They could have traded for Gallen last year, and passed. Not sure what other young, really good, pitcher will ever be traded....

 

When I say younger, I mean guys under 28-29 basically with years remaining on their contracts.

 

Syndergaard, Boyd, etc. 

[Mike Sixel]

He kind of came out of nowhere, I think it's a bit premature to call him really good.

 

And how do you know they passed? He was traded for a top 60 prospect and a SS at that. If the Twins are going to be trading Royce Lewis, I'd want it to be for a better pitcher than Zac Gallan

Because they didn't get him. That's literally what passing on getting him means. They passed on whatever price they would have had to pay.

 

That's what a good to great, young, pitcher will cost, minimum. Like I said, it's hard to see how anyone that young and good will be dealt again any time soon.

Edited November 11, 2019 by Mike Sixel

[h2oface]

 

I think from the reports that I have heard is that madbum is probably going to the Braves, close to where he grew up. So it will probably have to be Wheeler that the Twins pursue?

 

I guess central North Carolina, south of the Blue Ridge in the piedmont between Hickory and Lenoir ...... is close to where he grew up? Atlanta was the closest professional team. But personally, not really that close all in all, and not even in Georgia.....

Edited November 12, 2019 by h2oface

[Brock Beauchamp]

I'll be satisfied with either but my preference is for Wheeler and it's not a close competition.

[Twodogs]

I guess central North Carolina, south of the Blue Ridge in the piedmont between Hickory and Lenoir ...... is close to where he grew up? Atlanta was the closest professional team. But personally, not really that close all in all, and not even in Georgia.....

How far is North Carolina from Atlanta in comparison to Minnesota from Atlanta? It would be like a kid who grew up somewhere in South Dakota choosing the Twins over the Braves because he is closer to home.

[Mike Sixel]

From what I've read a large percent of players don't want to play close to where they grew up, so I think fans over rate that sometimes.

[DannySD]

They should pursue both without wasting much time on it. Neither will sign here. 

[jorgenswest]

I always wonder about the NL to AL move.

 

Should we ignore the plate appearance against opposing pitchers? Is that reasonable?

 

If you take out the pitcher plate appearances Odorizzi was much more successful in 2019 than Wheeler or Bumgarner and both pitch in parks that have been considered favorable to pitchers.

 

Wheeler’s strike out rate against non pitchers drops to 21.5%. His numbers take a hit when you take out his 28 strike outs (against 0 walks) against pitchers. Odorizzi stays at 27% when you take out the 4 pitcher at bats. Bumgarner gets a similar NL bump.

 

Not only does facing pitchers help your strikeout numbers but it lengthens your outings and reduces those longer high pitch count innings.

 

I don’t know if it is appropriate but I always take out plate appearances against other pitchers when comparing. If we can expect a similar performance from each of the three in 2020 Odorizzi would be my target.

[old nurse]

 

How far is North Carolina from Atlanta in comparison to Minnesota from Atlanta? It would be like a kid who grew up somewhere in South Dakota choosing the Twins over the Braves because he is closer to home.

As the private plane flies, not much difference.

[old nurse]

On Bumgarner. Pitching close to home? If he was a good old southern boy San Fransisco is the complete opposite of that. Bumgarner delayed free agency to stay and had a generous no trade clause to boot to stay in San Fransisco. I would doubt reports he wants to pitch closer to home. I wouldn't he wants a lot of money. The irony here is that Wheeler is the one who comes from outside of Atlanta.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I always wonder about the NL to AL move.

Should we ignore the plate appearance against opposing pitchers? Is that reasonable?

If you take out the pitcher plate appearances Odorizzi was much more successful in 2019 than Wheeler or Bumgarner and both pitch in parks that have been considered favorable to pitchers.

Wheeler’s strike out rate against non pitchers drops to 21.5%. His numbers take a hit when you take out his 28 strike outs (against 0 walks) against pitchers. Odorizzi stays at 27% when you take out the 4 pitcher at bats. Bumgarner gets a similar NL bump.

Not only does facing pitchers help your strikeout numbers but it lengthens your outings and reduces those longer high pitch count innings.

I don’t know if it is appropriate but I always take out plate appearances against other pitchers when comparing. If we can expect a similar performance from each of the three in 2020 Odorizzi would be my target.

It's not entirely fair to remove pitcher PAs because generally, the worst batter also sits in the ninth spot in the AL. The difference between AL#9 and a pitcher is stark, but the numbers are still slightly shifted. I'm not knocking your methodology because it's important to remove pitcher PAs, just pointing that out.

 

Inversely, Wheeler has better career stats away from Citi so home park likely doesn't help him at all.

 

Odorizzi is a wildly underrated pitcher, which is why I want to keep him at almost any cost, but he's also coming off a career year. Wheeler has been good for quite some time while Odorizzi was expected to be a 3/4 going into 2019 and performed more like a 2/3 through the season. I'm not sure we should expect that going forward but he *should* be a better pitcher than what we counted on going into last season.

 

So, yeah, Wheeler isn't amazing compared to Odo but we didn't expect to get that Odo either, so it's something of a loaded point to make.