Article: LAA 5, MIN 4: More Missed Opportunities

[Andrew Gebo]

The powerful Twins lineup mashed a couple more home runs tonight, but the team's struggles to deliver clutch hits continued. They combined to go 0-for-10 with runners in scoring position and Jose Berrios had his worst start of the season as the Twins dropped the series opener to the Angels 5-4.Box Score

Berrios: 5.2 IP, 12 H, 5 ER, 3 BB, 3 K, 62.4% strikes (63 of 101 pitches)

Home Runs: Polanco (8), Gonzalez (4)

Multi-Hit Games: Polanco (2-for-5, HR), Rosario (2-for-4)

WPA of +0.1: Astudillo .178, Gonzalez .110

WPA of -0.1: Kepler -.117, Buxton -.171, Garver -.182, Castro -.210, Berrios -.332

Download attachment: Win513.png

(chart via FanGraphs)

 

Neither pitcher looked good early on, as Jose Berrios and Tyler Skaggs combined to throw 121 pitches through the first three innings. In the fourth inning, Berrios matched his season high in hits allowed (eight) and recorded his first ground ball double play of the season when he got Shohei Ohtani to ground into a 4-6-3 on a 3-0 pitch to end the inning.

 

Worst Start of the Year for Berrios

The struggles for Berrios didn’t end after he induced the fourth inning double play. In the fifth inning, a replay challenge ruled Andrelton Simmons was safe on a stolen base and he later scored on a seeing-eye ground ball from Albert Pujols. Jose also served up two home runs, the first to Shohei Ohtani in the third inning and the second to Tommy La Stella in the sixth.

 

After allowing two base runners following the La Stella home run, Berrios' night was cut short after 5 2/3 innings. For the first time this season, Jose was pulled prior to completing six innings. He surrendered 12 hits and allowed five earned runs with only three strikeouts on 101 pitches. Simply put, he did not look like his usual self tonight.

 

Resilient Twins Offense Strikes Again

The Angels weren’t the only ones having fun at the plate. Thanks to a pair of two-run home runs from Jorge Polanco and Marwin Gonzalez, the Twins tied the score at four apiece in the bottom of the fifth inning. If not for having an Angel in the outfield, it very well could have been three home runs for the Twins but Garver’s blast came up just short of the flower beds in left and instead landed in the outfielders glove.

 

Coming Up Just Short

The bullpen kept the Twins alive, keeping the Angels off the board over three plus innings. A double from La Tortuga to lead off the eight showed promise of another late inning rally but the offense fell short and were unable to drive him in.

 

With the top of the order due up in the ninth, the Twins had one last chance to come from behind. Unfortunately it didn't go their way. They were retired in order and for only the third time this year the Twins dropped back to back games.

 

Postgame With Baldelli

Bullpen Usage

Here’s a quick look at the number of pitches thrown by the bullpen over the past five days:

Download attachment: Bullpen513.png

Next Three Games

Tue vs. LAA, 6:40 pm CT (Gibson-Pena)

Wed vs. LAA, 12:10 pm CT (Odorizzi-Cahill)

Thu at SEA, 9:10 pm CT (TBD)

 

Last Game

DET 5, MIN 3: We Have a Problem

 

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[David HK]

Well, there will be games like this, there will be stretches like this throughout the long season. 

 

Good teams find ways to not make them last very long.  

 

Our 2 strongest pitchers so far both had rough games, back to back. The hitters didn't come through AT ALL in high-leverage situations. It's a couple of games so far, winnable games in winnable series'. Doesn't make it any less frustrating, but, there it is. 

 

Go get 'em tomorrow.

 

[Aerodeliria]

This was a typical managerial mistake that is often made when trying to get a starting pitcher a win. I was worried that Berrios would come out for the 6th once the Twins tied it, but it was clear he didn't have his best stuff so he should have taken his seat at the end of the bench.

 

Again, the Twins did not get the bit hit when they needed it, but once they had tied it, I had optimism that they could win it. The home run took a bit of wind out of everyone's sails.

[jkcarew]

And THAT is why traditionally you don’t have the best pitcher in the back of the bullpen enter games when trailing. It’s a gamble, and Rocco lost the bet.

 

Berrios has struggled controlling the curve many of his starts so far...his mediocre FIP and K/9 heading into today’s start reflected that, despite the favorable results. It was bound to bite him eventually.

[Aerodeliria]

PS-Now I have to watch highlights of Ohtani's home run over and over again :-(...

[h2oface]

Burning Rodgers in a losing effort, and having him in when they were always behind. I can understand one inning to keep it close, and I know that he needed work, but to burn him for at least tomorrow and maybe wednesday with 31 pitches in 11 innings? Odd management. Is that what the analytics say to do? Plus, dropping a position player when you have one out but not on the IL to replace him.... means a bench of 2. Odd again. Not smart odd.

 

So.... we have lost 3 of the last 4, at home, to teams with losing records. The season settles in, eh? There have be so many barely missed homers. And Berrios was really pretty horrible today. 12 hits. More than 2/inning average.

 

What do all you Marwin doubters think now?

[h2oface]

 

PS-Now I have to watch highlights of Ohtani's home run over and over again :-(...

 

That pitch from Berrios to Otani was so right down the middle with no movement.

[h2oface]

I don't have the stats, or know how to find them, but I remember many times that the shift has hurt us badly, but don't remeber where it has helped. I am sure it might have, but I remember lots of grounders into the shift that were hit where the fielder would have been anyway, even without the shift. I wonder how they keep stats on the effectiveness. I am not a fan so far, at all.

[Aerodeliria]

This game was so annoying....even the interview. The reporterette asked Rocco, "Why did you let Berrios come out for the 6th?" HAHAHAHA....Just kidding. That would have been a rational question. Her question instead was,  "How did you know it was time to take Berrios out of the game?" How?? Is that even a real question? He just gave up his 12th hit in 5 + innings! I mean come on; that was softball sitting on a batting tee.

 

Let's hope tomorrow, we'll play baseball that will make this game fade from our memories....("Stupid Ohtani highlights" think Homer Simpson's voice).

Edited May 14, 2019 by Aerodeliria

[Old Twins Cap]

Hope MLB gets a urine test on Tommy La Stella. 

 

He's cracked 10 HRs this year, and took an off-speed pitch out to LF.

 

When HOF'er Albert Pujols goes oppo, it's dribblers, but not La Stella.

[Riverbrian]

Bottom of the 8th Inning: The Twins are down a run.

 

Astudillo leads offs with a double. 

 

Schoop pinch ran for Astudillo and Kepler pinch hit for Adrianza. 

 

Kepler failed to advance Schoop and he really needs to advance the runner in that situation. 

 

The game is 9 innings long with plenty of time and opportunity to produce something therefore I'm not going to say that was the ball game. 

 

However... at that moment and context... that was the ballgame. 

 

 

 

 

 

[bighat]

I think this team will be fine. It's unfortunate they've been kinda playing with the 'B' team for the past couple of days. We might get the "B" team for the remainder of this series, unfortunately. Glad Castro will be on the bench tonight, Kepler will be back in his leadoff spot, and hopefully we'll have an infield of Astudillo, Polaco, Schoop and Cron. A few nagging problems:

 

1. Get Cruz back ASAP - unfortunately the Twins will be careful with him, but he'll be okay. Maybe he'll wait until Seattle to play?

 

2. Schoop has been out with a sore left shoulder. Odd injury...

 

3. Perez and Berrios show they're human. No biggie, but it hurts that the two best pitchers haven't been at their best when the Twins feel desperate for wins.

 

4. Sano is on the way. I think the Twins may need this guy sooner rather than later....but be careful what you wish for. The guy will still have games where he strikes out 3-4 times. Here's hoping he doesn't have one of those games right away upon his return.

[bighat]

 

 

Bottom of the 8th Inning: The Twins are down a run.

 

Astudillo leads offs with a double. 

 

Schoop pinch ran for Astudillo and Kepler pinch hit for Adrianza. 

 

Kepler failed to advance Schoop and he really needs to advance the runner in that situation. 

 

The game is 9 innings long with plenty of time and opportunity to produce something therefore I'm not going to say that was the ball game. 

 

However... at that moment and context... that was the ballgame. 

 

Kepler absolutely has to advance the runner there. You can swing for the fences all you want, but if you get a gift situation like that in the 8th inning you get that runner over by hook or by crook!

[USAFChief]

 

Bottom of the 8th Inning: The Twins are down a run.

 

Astudillo leads offs with a double. 

 

Schoop pinch ran for Astudillo and Kepler pinch hit for Adrianza. 

 

Kepler failed to advance Schoop and he really needs to advance the runner in that situation. 

 

The game is 9 innings long with plenty of time and opportunity to produce something therefore I'm not going to say that was the ball game. 

 

However... at that moment and context... that was the ballgame. 

There are still times when "productive outs" really are productive. No matter how hard some people scoff at the idea.

 

Sometimes you fail, everyone does, but that was a terrible PA by Kepler. Not just unproductive, uncompetitive.

[Riverbrian]

There are still times when "productive outs" really are productive. No matter how hard some people scoff at the idea.

 

Sometimes you fail, everyone does, but that was a terrible PA by Kepler. Not just unproductive, uncompetitive.

I know you are not a bunt guy. I’m not a bunt guy either Because I’m a big believer in the crooked number and not making outs is how you produce the crooked number and producing the crooked number produces wins.

 

However... if you are ever going to bunt... That would have been the time because the clock was running out.

 

Once it is determined that you are not going to bunt. You better be able to pull that ball and get the runner over.

 

Oh well... tomorrow is another day.

[mikelink45]

 

I know you are not a bunt guy. I’m not a bunt guy either Because I’m a big believer in the crooked number and not making outs is how you produce the crooked number and producing the crooked number produces wins.

However... if you are ever going to bunt... That would have been the time because the clock was running out.

Once it is determined that you are not going to bunt. You better be able to pull that ball and get the runner over.

Oh well... tomorrow is another day.

Adrianza could have bunted.  I question using Schoop as a PR.  He has more value with his bat. I do like bunts and this was definitely a place where the bunt would have had great value.

[Otto von Ballpark]

3. Perez and Berrios show they're human. No biggie, but it hurts that the two best pitchers haven't been at their best when the Twins feel desperate for wins.

 

The Twins felt desperate for wins the past two days? At 25-13 (now 25-15)?

[Tom Froemming]

 

I don't have the stats, or know how to find them, but I remember many times that the shift has hurt us badly, but don't remeber where it has helped. I am sure it might have, but I remember lots of grounders into the shift that were hit where the fielder would have been anyway, even without the shift. I wonder how they keep stats on the effectiveness. I am not a fan so far, at all.

Not sure where to dig up the numbers specifically on shifting, but I know the Twins are inside the top five in shifts and have allowed the 11th-lowest BABIP in baseball, .284. Last season they ranked 25th with a .302 BABIP. 

 

I'm not saying those stats make it an open and close case, there's a lot of other factors to consider about why that BABIP is so much lower, and there was quite a bit of turnover in terms of personnel, but they're doing something right. That's a pretty significant increase in balls in play they're turning into outs. But when the shift doesn't work it most definitely stands out a lot more than when it does.

[Number3]

Anything less than 5 runs usually means a loss in today's game. Now that the 2 Twins aces (so far this year) have lost can Gibson come through tonight? Would be nice to pull out this series and win the home stand before heading west. Seems like Rocco is doing a lot of lineup tinkering and I hope he is not being too smart by half as the old saying goes. Don't take this managing thing too seriously Rocco. Just let 'em play.

My mistake....sorry Jake, you are at the top of the list ace wise the way you have pitched the past few games. Gibson still needs to come through.

Edited May 14, 2019 by Number3

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

This game was so annoying....even the interview. The reporterette asked Rocco, "Why did you let Berrios come out for the 6th?" HAHAHAHA....Just kidding. That would have been a rational question. Her question instead was,  "How did you know it was time to take Berrios out of the game?" .

I liked her non-confrontational version of the question better. Granted, there might have been a time in the near past when “what the hell are you doing out there” would have been an honest question for the manager and front office, but not now

[Don Walcott]

 

Not sure where to dig up the numbers specifically on shifting, but I know the Twins are inside the top five in shifts and have allowed the 11th-lowest BABIP in baseball, .284. Last season they ranked 25th with a .302 BABIP. 

 

I'm not saying those stats make it an open and close case, there's a lot of other factors to consider about why that BABIP is so much lower, and there was quite a bit of turnover in terms of personnel, but they're doing something right. That's a pretty significant increase in balls in play they're turning into outs. But when the shift doesn't work it most definitely stands out a lot more than when it does.

Byron Buxton accounts for some of this difference.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I’m not scoffing at the idea of productive outs, but I’m not bothered that Kep didn’t advance the runner there. Yes, it would have been nice, sure. Twins fans have endured 25 years of “move ‘em over, get ‘em in” ... “play for a run, lose by a run” style of baseball. I like this version better!

[Don Walcott]

I don't mind bringing Rogers into a 1-run game, or a tie game for that matter. If they'd done that against Detroit they might have come out of that series with another win or two. Rogers did his job, and the Twins offense did not do theirs. Down one at home, guy on second and no outs. You have to score there.

 

I'm happy with our record and optimistic about this team. But it seems like we're losing games we should win due to some questionable managerial decisions and failing at basics. I just hope the players and manager are learning from it.

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

I don't have the stats, or know how to find them, but I remember many times that the shift has hurt us badly, but don't remeber where it has helped. I am sure it might have, but I remember lots of grounders into the shift that were hit where the fielder would have been anyway, even without the shift. I wonder how they keep stats on the effectiveness. I am not a fan so far, at all.

 

Do you remember the times not shifting has hurt us badly?  The totality of the logic behind shifting is to place more defenders in areas to which each individual batter is more likely to hit the ball.  Smart teams move their defenders to maximize the odds of success--that doesn't mean it can't look really bad.  Just like how in blackjack smart betters double down on ten when the dealer is showing six.  That doesn't mean you won't get a 2, and the dealer won't flip a five and then get a face card.

[Aerodeliria]

So I guess Cruz's wrist is not so bad? If so, that's good news.

 

When is Sano expected to show his face in a Twin's uniform?...this series?

 

 

[Aerodeliria]

 

Do you guys really like Kepler as a lead off hitter? He's back to his old self at the plate from the last 3 years of full time play - .236/.304/.457(.761) this year, .233/.312/.421(.733) career. His OPS is up a little because of a better slugging %, not because of a better batting average and his OBP is down and actually pretty bad. He's OBP is better vs. RH pitching than LH pitching - .331 v. .216 so maybe that's why Baldelli doesn't play him or at least doesn't lead him off against LH pitching. I know a lot of people here want him to succeed, but let's face facts. He's had 1800 MLB ABs and so far he is a below average hitter for a corner OF. I know his peripherals are better and I've heard the rationalization that he "just suffers from a low BABIP". That may be true, but's it's now been true for 3 plus years of full time play. His track suggests that this may be who he is - an above average to elite defender in the corner who could be  solid to better fielding CF, who doesn't really hit much for average or OBP but does have some power. He's really the strong half of a platoon.  

 

My point isn't to sit or replace Kepler, but I think batting him lead off isn't a good idea. He isn't there because he's good at it - by statistical definition he's a mediocre lead off hitter against RH pitching and a truly lousy lead off hitter against LH pitching. He also seems to press a little there and under pressure over all. Witness last night's awful AB with a man on second a no outs in the 8th down a run where he lunged at the first pitch trying to hit a home run when a ground ball to the right side was his job. Only one AB, but right now he has a .485 OPS with runners in scoring position this year (admittedly a SSS). The Twins are committed to him now, so let's develop him by putting him where he can hit with a little less pressure. We should hit Kepler 7th or 8th where he belongs. 

 

I come not to bury Kepler, but to argue that he hasn't "broken out" yet and leading him off is not helping him do that. I would lead off Garver when he plays and Polanco when Garver sits, move Gonzalez to the 2 hole when Garver isn't playing, and put Kepler at 6 ahead of Schoop at 7. Peripherals are nice but don't show a breakout. At most, they suggest that a breakout may be coming. A breakout happens when one's BA, SLG % and OPS show the breakout. Those are the stats that matter on the field. Kepler's stats don't show a breakout. There's a better chance of Kepler breaking out lower in the order IMHO.

 

Performance matters. It matters even when we want and hope a player does well. Now, I'll crawl into my bunker, fortify the door, waiting for the responses.     

 

Actually, I like your post very much, but now that Marwin is getting in his groove, why not bat him first? He is probably the most patient hitter we have and he just seems like a player who doesn't press very much...of course, once Sano returns and Cruz is also in the lineup, it's hard to work around all of the contingencies. Probably Marwin could switch with Kepler when there was a lefty on the mound, and he could fill in on the infield or outfield to give others a rest considering he so versatile.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

What do all you Marwin doubters think now?

I don't know that anyone ever doubted Marwin's ability to post a 81 wRC+ for the season.

 

Let's hope he keeps his hot streak going, to significantly best his career 102 mark.

[stringer bell]

Regarding not bunting--with all of the strikeouts and pop flies in today's game, it is far from a guarantee that the next guy will bring in that run. Kepler hits a lot of pop flies and a lot of grounders into the shift, one of the two would have advanced the runner, the other not so much. 

 

Kepler is consistently inconsistent. He's already had three or four "snags" where he's 1-10, 2-15. He'll come out of it with multiple hits and extra base hits. I'd like to see a true leadoff hitter, but given what is available, I think Kepler is as good a choice as anyone.

[puckstopper1]

 

I think this team will be fine. It's unfortunate they've been kinda playing with the 'B' team for the past couple of days. We might get the "B" team for the remainder of this series, unfortunately. Glad Castro will be on the bench tonight, Kepler will be back in his leadoff spot, and hopefully we'll have an infield of Astudillo, Polaco, Schoop and Cron. A few nagging problems:

 

 

2. Schoop has been out with a sore left shoulder. Odd injury...

 

 

 

Bighat - Schoop hurt his shoulder when he dove for a ball against the Tigers in the 1st game of the DH on Saturday.  I was at the game and my friend even commented on how much Schoop was working his shoulder while in the field between batters.  Not surprised he needed a few games off to see how it reacted.  Hopefully him getting in the game last night means that the injury is a minor one.

[bighat]

 

Bighat - Schoop hurt his shoulder when he dove for a ball against the Tigers in the 1st game of the DH on Saturday.  I was at the game and my friend even commented on how much Schoop was working his shoulder while in the field between batters.  Not surprised he needed a few games off to see how it reacted.  Hopefully him getting in the game last night means that the injury is a minor one.

 

Must have missed that - thanks for the tip! Makes total sense. Hope he's back in there tonight, yeah when he pinch ran that was a good sign.