Article: Deadline Deal: Twins Trade Brian Dozier to Dodgers

[twinsnorth49]

You really have to be impressed at the type of player Dozier made himself into. 24 WAR in the time he was here for an 8th round pick is pretty good.

 

Once he moved from SS to 2B he never looked back. Man he was a crappy SS.

[Vanimal46]

And the Twins should have a crap ton of minor league guys to go out and get what they need next year.

There should be absolutely no push back to using prospects in trades in order to acquire better players next year. None. They have 30+ players that grade out C or better.

[yarnivek1972]

There’s no such thing as a “reduced role” player in these days of 12 and 13 man pitching staffs.

 

I think the Twins try like hell to bring Escobar back to play 3b, move Sano to 1b/dh and use Austin there as well. Austin can also play some OF to spell the regulars and I would expect Granite or Cave to be at the MLB level as a reserve as well.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Whats better than nothing? Luke Raley. I'd much rather have him than nothing at all. Odds are he never makes it, but odds were Bryan never would either and he made it to an all star game so I'll take my chances with the trade. Why? Because it is better than nothing.

Dozier in AA had a 145 wRC+, a well below average K rate, an acceptable walk rate, and played middle infield. If we were acquiring Dozier circa July 31, 2011, I would be much more approving of the trade.

 

I wouldn't say keeping Dozier was worth "nothing". I think we at least nominally care about winning games the next two months.

[jorgenswest]

I think they would have dealt Gibson for the right offer.

 

I am glad they dint do the Dozier for DeLeon deal when Dozier was at his peak value. The regular season has a lot of value. Competing and making a wild card spot provided a lot of entertaining g games throughout the season.

 

In fact the same is true for individual games this year. I don’t need the Twins to be in contention to sit down and enjoy the great game of baseball. If there are fewer competitive games this year due to the Dozier trade that is a loss in value that the return may not bring back in the future.

[jbrew]

Thanks for a fun few seasons Brian! It was sure fun to see you at the All Star game and go on your record setting HR seasons for a second baseman. You will be missed. Now I can concentrate on watching football as that season starts this week.......talk about the Twins around spring training. No need to speculate now, season over.

[akmanak]

This is now Falvey's team. Let's give it a few and see what happens. I do find it a breath of fresh air that the gm is making moves. Hopefully with all the prospects we can make a trade in the off season that will make the present trades look like a genius move.

[Obsvr]

 

4) Let Dozier play out the 2018 season. It's not over yet. Then decide. The value they got for him is less than the non-zero chance the Twins can still win the ALC.

 

Oh it was over.

 

Zero chance they were going to catch the indians...not the way this team has played this year.

 

Too lazy to look through the responses but they took Forsythe back because the Dodgers have had luxury tax issues this year.  He's obv gone either before the end of the year or after but really it makes no difference.  

 

With free agency the way it was last year, there was a pretty good chance Dozier takes the QO if they extended it and I dont think this FO wanted Dozier back.  They have some money to splash around this year, so keep stocking the system, spend some money and remake this team a bit.

 

 

[Obsvr]

 

Be afraid, be very afraid. Mauer is gone.

 

Mauer should be gone.  I liked Joe as much as the next person but a .091 ISO is just not going to get it done.

 

The thing is...Joe has the frame to hit 30 bombs a year...he just refuses to change his swing.  I think he could extend his career a few more years if he accepted more strike outs in exchange for more power.  Not much use for a single hitting first baseman in the league.

 

 

 

[Blake]

 

Mauer should be gone.  I liked Joe as much as the next person but a .091 ISO is just not going to get it done.

 

The thing is...Joe has the frame to hit 30 bombs a year...he just refuses to change his swing.  I think he could extend his career a few more years if he accepted more strike outs in exchange for more power.  Not much use for a single hitting first baseman in the league.

If I read the stats correctly, Mauer has a lifetime BA of .333 with RISP. 

[Dman]

 

Dozier in AA had a 145 wRC+, a well below average K rate, an acceptable walk rate, and played middle infield. If we were acquiring Dozier circa July 31, 2011, I would be much more approving of the trade.

I wouldn't say keeping Dozier was worth "nothing". I think we at least nominally care about winning games the next two months.

 But given the way he has been playing is it really hard to replace or come close to replacing his production?  That seems like a pretty low bar at this point.  His last 15 and 30 days BA is .230 and his slugging is way down.  I don't see how his replacement can do much worse and a chance his replacement does better.  So not sure I see your point.

Edited July 31, 2018 by Dman

[Obsvr]

 

If I read the stats correctly, Mauer has a lifetime BA of .333 with RISP. 

 

So your saying Joe Mauer's current production is living up to his lifetime stats?

 

 

[Blake]

 

So your saying Joe Mauer's current production is living up to his lifetime stats?

RISP for this year shows a BA of .426. 

 

In 67 plate appearances, 54 AB's, 23 hits, and 31 RBi's.

 

I admit, those numbers surprised me.

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=mauerjo01&year=2018&t=b

 

Maybe take a look because I may be missing something.

 

I'm just looking at the line labeled "RISP," on the chart, "Bases Occupied," which I hope is self-explanatory but, I admit, I'm not the stats person a lot of the guys on the site are.

[nicksaviking]

 

So your saying Joe Mauer's current production is living up to his lifetime stats?

 

Most 35-year-olds don't.

 

Nothing anyone could do about Mauer, he couldn't be traded even if another club wanted him. All cutting him does is give more at bats to Morrison and Grossman. Yawn.

 

He won't be a Twin next year unless he's wearing a tie and sitting behind a desk.

[Mike Sixel]

 

RISP for this year shows a BA of .426. 

 

In 67 plate appearances, 54 AB's, 23 hits, and 31 RBi's.

 

I admit, those numbers surprised me.

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=mauerjo01&year=2018&t=b

 

Maybe take a look because I may be missing something.

 

I'm just looking at the line labeled "RISP," on the chart, "Bases Occupied," which I hope is self-explanatory but, I admit, I'm not the stats person a lot of the guys on the site are.

 

Too bad he bats at other times too. Like, this RISP discussion has what to do with whether he is valuable compared to other first baseman?

 

OTOH, not sure they have a real alternative. I'd consider going a one year deal with him....

[S.]

 

He won't be a Twin next year unless he's wearing a tie and sitting behind a desk.

I think a 1 year deal is still certainly a possibility but that hinges on our other offseason moves and how big of a question mark Sano is.

[jkcarew]

Don’t get the hand-wringing. Once this season had arrived, Dozier had decided he was going to see what the market would bear....a reasonable position. Meanwhile, the Twins decided they were not going to go the QO route...a reasonable position.

 

At that point, you’re doing a professional disservice to your club AND to Dozier if you don’t simply trade him to a contender for whatever you can get and move on. This is the result when two parties both want to move on. The opportunity for a materially different outcome had long since past.

[Blake]

 

Too bad he bats at other times too. Like, this RISP discussion has what to do with whether he is valuable compared to other first baseman?

 

OTOH, not sure they have a real alternative. I'd consider going a one year deal with him....

I think it would be fair to compare Joe's RISP production with other 1st base. It could turn out Mauer's one of the league leaders. No, I don't think he is, but, I think the numbers are quite surprising and unexpected.

 

Good grief, I wouldn't have believed it if I hadn't have looked it up:

 

[Mike Sixel]

 

I think it would be fair to compare Joe's RISP production with other 1st base. It could turn out Mauer's one of the league leaders. No, I don't think he is, but, I think the numbers are quite surprising and unexpected.

 

Good grief, I wouldn't have believed it if I hadn't have looked it up:

 

but why are we looking at RISP and only RISP? I don't understand.....

 

Let's just look at his WAR, or his offense overall.....

[Thrylos]

Wish he makes the best of his chance under the Hollywood spotlights.

 

 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

 

Don’t get the hand-wringing. Once this season had arrived, Dozier had decided he was going to see what the market would bear....a reasonable position. Meanwhile, the Twins decided they were not going to go the QO route...a reasonable position. At that point, you’re doing a professional disservice to your club AND to Dozier if you don’t simply trade him to a contender for whatever you can get and move on. This is the result when two parties both want to move on. The opportunity for a materially different outcome had long since past.

Again, you are forgetting the pennant race. 

 

I know it angers many people to say, but the Twins were still in a pennant race.

[S.]

 

Again, you are forgetting the pennant race. 

 

I know it angers many people to say, but the Twins were still in a pennant race.

When was the last time we even sniffed .500?

[Blake]

 

but why are we looking at RISP and only RISP? I don't understand.....

 

Let's just look at his WAR, or his offense overall.....

1. I said above I'm not the stats guy that some are on this site.

2. Scoring runners is an important part of the game, right? Which I believe has been a knock against Mr. Mauer. Which turns out to be unjustified. 

3. Maybe to show there's more value to Mr. Mauer than meets the eye? 

 

Again, I'm shocked that Mauer has been this good with RISP this year, considering the abysmal performance of the team overall.

 

Also, I'd have given you odds that Mauer's value wasn't much but, RISP says there is value, providing people get on base in front of Mauer.

 

You mentioned comparing Mauer to other 1st base. I picked RISP and, wow, was I surprised.

 

I'm not even cherry picking, because I pulled the idea of RISP out of an un family friendly place and ran with it. 

[howeda7]

 

There’s no such thing as a “reduced role” player in these days of 12 and 13 man pitching staffs.

I think the Twins try like hell to bring Escobar back to play 3b, move Sano to 1b/dh and use Austin there as well. Austin can also play some OF to spell the regulars and I would expect Granite or Cave to be at the MLB level as a reserve as well.

But then where would Grossman fit in? We simply must keep him around....

[70charger]

 

Again, you are forgetting the pennant race. 

 

I know it angers many people to say, but the Twins were still in a pennant race.

 

I don't think it angers anyone. Until you're mathematically eliminated, you're not mathematically eliminated; I just think some have an easier time accepting that the odds were ridiculously against this team.

 

If the Twins were running a marathon race, they'd be crossing the starting line while the Kenyans were passing mile 10. Does it meet the technical definition of "race"? Yes. Is it a race? Come on, now.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

 

When was the last time we even sniffed .500?

we were sniffing it when Escobar was traded. We weren't there yet, but we were sniffing it.

[jkcarew]

Again, you are forgetting the pennant race. 

 

I know it angers many people to say, but the Twins were still in a pennant race.

 

They are marginally/arguably in a race to win a very bad division. It is open to much subjectivity to equate that with “being in a pennant race”. The Twins FO seems to interpret it the same way I would.

[wsnydes]

I'd retire too.....but some people just want to keep going.

I'd retire due to the concussions alone.

[MikeW]

Raley was the key to this deal.

Forsythe won’t be back after this season.

Smeltzer has no future.

 

Dozier stopped trying to pull every pitch mid-season last year and he rocketed. This year he is back to trying to pull everything. If the Dodgers can convince him to use all fields, he will once again excel.

[South Dakota Tom]

Last year, Dodgers chose Forsythe over Dozier;  while I think there are luxury tax issues, there are also issues relating to the Dodgers having to remove someone from the 25- and 40-man roster, which they don't have now.    I believe a lot more of these trades come down to "I need someone NOT on the 40-man, a lottery ticket 3 years away, and someone who is on the 25-man roster because we don't have any high-minors position players who can hit their way out of a wet bag."  (not saying Forsythe is much better, but at least he can fill a role while we see what Adrianza has).