Article: Deadline Deal: Twins Trade Brian Dozier to Dodgers

[mngopherguy]

 

Well, just since 2013, they have won 5 consecutive NL West Division titles (winning 92, 94, 92, 91, and 104 regular season games - and they won 3 more Division titles in the aughts and two NLDS plus a wild card ticket to an NLDS), 3 NLDS, and 1 NLCS, and were pretty damn close to winning the World Series last year, only losing 4 games to 3. You can't get much closer than that. I wouldn't call that not winning anything. And they are gearing up for a playoff run this year, with some great moves at the deadline. Those aren't alternate facts, but history.

 

I would take that run for the Twins in the next five years (6 counting this TBD year) in a heartbeat. Hell, I would even take winning one post season series for a start. Even one. Just one.

 

I would take that as well, but do you remember the days when the Twins were winning AL Central Titles regularly?  We were told it's no big deal since we couldn't win a World Series.  

 

 

[Twinsbar107]

 

My take on the trades. I would not have traded Escobar who was valuable for the many positions he plays and as a decent hitter. I would have signed him for 2 years if they even made an offer. The others were expendable, though Lynn also could have been made an offer. He missed Spring training and thus was bad in the first month but decent after that (except for a recent slump that they all go through). It would not surprise me to see him do much better- especially next year. Dozier was really expendable because, even though he hits a lot of home runs, he is making too much money. I never really liked Duke but he was effective after a slow start. It seems we got a few possible decent hitters and one pitcher who could make an impact down the road. As with all trades, we won't know until a year or two. Our minor leagues are not doing well overall and do not seem to be able to give us anyone for next year at this time. Just my take. 

Apparently, they tried to extend Escobar before they traded him. So, it wasn't from a lack of trying in that area.

[h2oface]

 

I would take that as well, but do you remember the days when the Twins were winning AL Central Titles regularly?  We were told it's no big deal since we couldn't win a World Series.  

 

Sure I do. But I don't think the division titles were no big deal, and those that did accuse us of that were mostly referring to the supposed weak division we played in, and especially the pathetic and futile playoff record, and not so much we couldn't win a World Series, as we couldn't win any playoff series (except one ALDS against Oakland 3-2 in 2002), and the playoff record of 3-20 after that opening playoff series in this century.  

 

The Dodgers have certainly won more than just division titles, even though they did lose several NLDS and some NLCS. And the response was to a bitter comment that claimed the Dodgers hadn't won anything. I'm a baseball fan, with a favorite team. I love baseball. I don't mind giving credit where credit is due, and not pretending something is comparable that really isn't. I appreciate good play and players, even if they/it isn't on/from my chosen favorite team. Unless it is the Yankees. I tend to slip into pure hatred there.

[mngopherguy]

 

My take on the trades. I would not have traded Escobar who was valuable for the many positions he plays and as a decent hitter. I would have signed him for 2 years if they even made an offer. The others were expendable, though Lynn also could have been made an offer. He missed Spring training and thus was bad in the first month but decent after that (except for a recent slump that they all go through). It would not surprise me to see him do much better- especially next year. Dozier was really expendable because, even though he hits a lot of home runs, he is making too much money. I never really liked Duke but he was effective after a slow start. It seems we got a few possible decent hitters and one pitcher who could make an impact down the road. As with all trades, we won't know until a year or two. Our minor leagues are not doing well overall and do not seem to be able to give us anyone for next year at this time. Just my take. 

 

I've seen numerous times that Escobar's team rejected an extension, so why wouldn't you trade him?  

 

[mngopherguy]

 

I submit the trade they should not have made is Escobar. He would have likely improved the production at 2B, with Sano/Adrianza at 3B not a terrible fall-off perhaps. Escobar is uniquely valuable to a team. The others are not, and they all had a short shelf life too.

 

So do not trade the guy who's team rejected an extension?  

[mngopherguy]

 

This is fair.

 

In fact, I wondered in another post whether they let the season stagnate too long. If they were thinking "addition by subtraction", they probably could have moved on from a couple other players earlier, and given Escobar and the rest a better chance to get back in the race before the deadline.

 

So it's a good idea to keep a player who will not extend? Makes zero sense.  

[NASCAR Steve]

It was a dumb trade... dozier play his heart out for this team... and people say the twins under achieved this year.. Buxton has been playing the whole year hurt weather when he was with the twins or down in triple a.. Sano was out of shape.. we played like 20 games without mauer do to injury and our best pitcher last year has pitched just 2 games this year. Not to mention we had one the toughest 1st half schedules and in the first month 4 of our games got canceled.. the twins will never win a World Series has long as Derek favely and Thad Lavine are in front office... they haven't made one good trade.. nor have they had faith in this team ever since they have gotten here

Edited August 2, 2018 by NASCAR Steve

[Riverbrian]

 

Well, they haven't really traded for many guys at all. That might have been the issue, rather than not trading multiple prospects for major pieces.

 

It all came crashing down in 2011. 

 

Next year will be 2019. 

 

When you look back at each way talent can be acquired. I'm not so sure we can check any boxes in the satisfactory column for the organization. 

 

Including talent acquired at the trade deadline during what has been a long stretch of out of contention at the trade deadline seasons. 

 

Falvey and Lavine are clearly a different animal at the trade deadline then what we had before. 

 

[jimmer]

It all came crashing down in 2011.

 

Next year will be 2019.

 

When you look back at each way talent can be acquired. I'm not so sure we can check any boxes in the satisfactory column for the organization.

 

Including talent acquired at the trade deadline during what has been a long stretch of out of contention at the trade deadline seasons.

 

Falvey and Lavine are clearly a different animal at the trade deadline then what we had before.

beautiful post.

[Squirrel]

I submit the trade they should not have made is Escobar. He would have likely improved the production at 2B, with Sano/Adrianza at 3B not a terrible fall-off perhaps. Escobar is uniquely valuable to a team. The others are not, and they all had a short shelf life too.

This is really where I’m at with that trade. I think Esco was far more valuable to us than Dozier. So much so, they were never going to get what he’s worth to us. And I don’t say that just because Esco was my favorite. Well, maybe partly but not entirely.

 

I’m really not sure what all to make of the Dozier trade. There certainly was stuff going on behind the scenes that we will probably never fully know the whole story so I’m not sure if the FO was ‘getting rid’ of him or he was ‘getting rid’ of us, likely some combination. It really seemed that this year Dozier had lost some of his passion, whether that was from the writing on the wall that he was not going to be re-signed, or conflicts in the clubhouse, or what. No idea on that. But it certainly seems like the FO made any deal they could and are done with it.

[yarnivek1972]

It all came crashing down in 2011.

 

Next year will be 2019.

 

When you look back at each way talent can be acquired. I'm not so sure we can check any boxes in the satisfactory column for the organization.

 

Including talent acquired at the trade deadline during what has been a long stretch of out of contention at the trade deadline seasons.

 

Falvey and Lavine are clearly a different animal at the trade deadline then what we had before.

2011 was the final season with Bill Smith as GM. The problem was re-hiring Terry Ryan who clearly was out of touch with the changes that had happened in baseball since he started as a scout in the early 1980s. The Twins should have gone outside the organization and cleaned house then. Now those are wasted years and while the people at the top have changed, I don’t feel there have been enough changes in the scouting and player development areas. For the most part, the same people Terry Ryan hired are still there. If this organization is going to move forward, Falvine needs to eliminate the old boys network.

[AlwaysinModeration]

A few points to add to this interesting discussion, which seems to be a catch-all on the FO moves, not just the Dozier move.

 

1. Dozier called the FO out for trading at the deadline last year. That helped the team motivate for the playoff run...but doesn’t necessarily ingratiate yourself heading into potential contract extensions.

 

2. Falvey and Levine signed a number of one year contracts this offseason, which are flippable at the deadline in case things don’t pan out. This is something Ryan rarely did, either the signing or the trading. They should get credit for Duke and Lynn in that regard—turning nothing into something. (And maybe Morrison and Rodney this month?)

 

3. Dozier insisted on batting leadoff for a long time, when his bat would have been more productive lower in the order (specifically, after Mauer).

 

4. Dozier made it pretty clear he wanted to test free agency, which is perfectly fine.

 

5. Falvey and Levine made the clear-eyed choice to sell when they saw that the team wasn’t going to make it this year. That took some cojones, given their attempt to sell last year bit them in the ass. I think their assessment was correct, and they stockpiled some intriguing prospects in the process, at very little cost to the future. Maybe none will pan out, but the odds are actually pretty good that at least 2 or 3 of the 11 will turn out to be something. Kudos to them for making a plan and sticking with it.

 

And, for what it’s worth, I’d be thrilled resigning Escobar for something like 3/33.

Edited August 2, 2018 by AlwaysinModeration

[yarnivek1972]

2) They signed a bunch of one year contracts, because that is what the market allowed. Wasn’t just the Twins. I think it’s the beginnings of a trend. The great players will get their multi-year 8 and 9 figure deals. Machado, Harper et al. The second tier may have to be prepared to prove themselves year after year. Even Addison Reed, who has a very good track record, had to take just a two year deal.

 

 

5) I wouldn’t say selling bit the Twins in the ass last year. They really only sold Kintzler, who was more than adequately replaced by Belisle, who up to that point had been largelh ineffective. So it didn’t drastically change the rest of the pen.

 

The bottom line last year was that the Twins were BY FAR the worst team in the AL playoffs. They would have needed to add 5 or 6 guys to change that. If you are that far away, does it really make sense to sell the farm for a shot at that point?

[lukeduke1980]

 

So it's a good idea to keep a player who will not extend? Makes zero sense.  

We don't know the details of the extension, do we?  It could have been a low ball 2 year extension offer.

[Riverbrian]

 

2011 was the final season with Bill Smith as GM. The problem was re-hiring Terry Ryan who clearly was out of touch with the changes that had happened in baseball since he started as a scout in the early 1980s. The Twins should have gone outside the organization and cleaned house then. Now those are wasted years and while the people at the top have changed, I don’t feel there have been enough changes in the scouting and player development areas. For the most part, the same people Terry Ryan hired are still there. If this organization is going to move forward, Falvine needs to eliminate the old boys network.

 

I've been doing what I call an "autopsy" on what went wrong this season since I've walked from the game threads and I've been posting a lot of opinion lately on what I'm running across with the hope of others taking similar notice for discussion. I've been doing this without inside information and it should also be noted what I'm looking for is very tainted by my own personal opinion.

 

With that said... I try my best to stop at the waters edge when it comes to assessing blame toward anyone since I don't know the dynamic of the decision making rooms today and yesterday.  

 

Basically, as I started looking at the issues of this season, it naturally led me to the issues of past season. In other words,  "what went wrong" didn't just happen under the eye of Falvey and Lavine. In my opinion "what went wrong" has been a culmination of mistakes made in the past decade in all avenues of talent acquisition, playing time allocation, along with assessment and development.   

 

Since this is a Brian Dozier thread... I believe that there were things that could have been done to increase Brian Dozier's trade value which may be laid at the feet of the past regime and there are things that could have done to minimize the damage of his pro-longed slumps.that can laid at the feet of the current regime.   

 

Getting back prospects that may or may not pan out for a player about to hit free agency... I have no problem with that and feel like it should mandatory in consideration of the current situation. I just want to make a notation that the Twins were more active during this trade deadline then I have ever seen in all my years of Twins obsession and am encouraged about the future if that is how they will handle things. 

 

As for the prospects in return... I will wait until they (if they) ripen to MLB status before I pass judgement on the acquisitions received in return. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

2) They signed a bunch of one year contracts, because that is what the market allowed. Wasn’t just the Twins. I think it’s the beginnings of a trend. The great players will get their multi-year 8 and 9 figure deals. Machado, Harper et al. The second tier may have to be prepared to prove themselves year after year. Even Addison Reed, who has a very good track record, had to take just a two year deal.

5) I wouldn’t say selling bit the Twins in the ass last year. They really only sold Kintzler, who was more than adequately replaced by Belisle, who up to that point had been largelh ineffective. So it didn’t drastically change the rest of the pen.

The bottom line last year was that the Twins were BY FAR the worst team in the AL playoffs. They would have needed to add 5 or 6 guys to change that. If you are that far away, does it really make sense to sell the farm for a shot at that point?

disagree completely. This team has plenty of talent for a postseason run. Just need to get the best out of it.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

2) They signed a bunch of one year contracts, because that is what the market allowed. Wasn’t just the Twins. I think it’s the beginnings of a trend. The great players will get their multi-year 8 and 9 figure deals. Machado, Harper et al. The second tier may have to be prepared to prove themselves year after year. Even Addison Reed, who has a very good track record, had to take just a two year deal.
 

 

I seem to remember a lot of criticism being leveled at the front offices of years past because they didn't do the 1 year contract thing. Granted, the market made that easier, and you're probably right about this being a trend, but doing the 1 year thing and then flipping most of those guys for prospects when the run failed certainly makes sense...

 

 

and I'd argue this is something we rarely ever saw before. For once, I appreciate the decisiveness. The only real trade I wasn't a fan of was Pressly, as he helps in 2019. Everyone else (especially since Escobar didn't want an extension) was necessary.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I've seen numerous times that Escobar's team rejected an extension, so why wouldn't you trade him?

 

What was the offer, again?

[Danchat]

What was the offer, again?

A lot more than what they would have gotten if they would have let him play out his contract. I think he takes the qualifying offer if you extend it to him.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

A lot more than what they would have gotten if they would have let him play out his contract. I think he takes the qualifying offer if you extend it to him.

I think the poster was referencing a contract extension, different than a qualifying offer.

 

And I still also think they get a lot more out of letting the fan favorites play out the season. Just my opinion but even stronger opinion now that the deadline has happened. Losing begets lots of ill effects. I'm seeing a lot of ticket promotions on social media all the sudden. Some not so awesome. (Hey! buy frozen pizza, get free tickets! was one of the promotions-- about one step up from "someone broke into my car, and there on the dashboard...")

Edited August 2, 2018 by Hosken Bombo Disco

[yarnivek1972]

I think the poster was referencing a contract extension, different than a qualifying offer.

 

And I still also think they get a lot more out of letting the fan favorites play out the season. Just my opinion but even stronger opinion now that the deadline has happened. Losing begets lots of ill effects. I'm seeing a lot of ticket promotions on social media all the sudden. Some not so awesome. (Hey! buy frozen pizza, get free tickets! was one of the promotions-- about one step up from "someone broke into my car, and there on the dashboard...")

But if the goal is to win a championship, it may mean doing something that is unpopular in the short term. For example, letting Mickey Hatcher go after 1986. Trading Frank Viola in 1989.

[NASCAR Steve]

Thad lavine and Derek favely don't know how to run a team .. twins got talent in the minors but none of them are ready so what did the great front office do went out and got guys who are more not ready for the MLB .. so that's you keep guys like dozier and Escobar around for 2 to 4 years more.. People keep saying Escobar didn't want to extend but no proof of that.. they say dozier wouldn't have sign with the twins.. I mean since Derek favely and Thad lavine have gotten here they have made it know they want to get rid of dozier..

Edited August 2, 2018 by NASCAR Steve

[Monkeypaws]

Dozier having a revival in LA. 3 run homer tonight.

 

I think this revival was totally predictable. Playing on a new team, contender and all. Plus, he is surrounded by better payers in the lineup. He will probably go on the late season tear now. 

 

BD gets a chance to hit that jackpot if he keeps it up. Never was happening here.

 

 

 

[mngopherguy]

 

What was the offer, again?

 

Obviously to enough to keep Escobar.  

 

As a fan, Escobar was my favorite guy to watch, but the FO's job is not to be a fan.  Keeping and losing him would have been like the days of Terry Ryan and a big worthless mistake.  

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Obviously to enough to keep Escobar.

 

As a fan, Escobar was my favorite guy to watch, but the FO's job is not to be a fan. Keeping and losing him would have been like the days of Terry Ryan and a big worthless mistake.

Not sure that answers the question.

[wyowib]

 

Thad lavine and Derek favely don't know how to run a team .. twins got talent in the minors but none of them are ready so what did the great front office do went out and got guys who are more not ready for the MLB .. so that's you keep guys like dozier and Escobar around for 2 to 4 years more.. People keep saying Escobar didn't want to extend but no proof of that.. they say dozier wouldn't have sign with the twins.. I mean since Derek favely and Thad lavine have gotten here they have made it know they want to get rid of dozier..

In the 1st few months of their tenure, they didn't accept "penny's on the dollar" for dozier, last off season they hired a bunch of people that were widely considered to be great hires by non-Twins fans.  They haven't even been given a chance/time to start to change the culture of this organization; and the culture needed to change, judging by the lack of prospect development in the past decade.  NFL GMs are supposed to have 3 years, I've read that in MLB, it's more like 5 considering the developmental curve of prospects.  I love their approach because it's focused on solid, sustained, success and not just emotional "here and now" immediate gratification.  Who knows if it will work out, but I'm willing to give it a chance, which takes more than 20 months to determine.  The Astros, Dodgers, Red Sox, Cubs, and Yankees have all focused on building from within and it's working for them.  Sure they can afford to take more financial risks than the Twins (Dodgers the most obvious example), but that doesn't take away that they've built their foundation on internal development.

 

[Vanimal46]

Dozier having a revival in LA. 3 run homer tonight.

 

I think this revival was totally predictable. Playing on a new team, contender and all. Plus, he is surrounded by better payers in the lineup. He will probably go on the late season tear now.

 

BD gets a chance to hit that jackpot if he keeps it up. Never was happening here.

Couldn't agree more. I posted in one of the other Dozier threads he's going to thrive without needing to be the star of the team.

 

I would be rejuvenated too if I was traded on a team that made the WS last season.

[NASCAR Steve]

In the 1st few months of their tenure, they didn't accept "penny's on the dollar" for dozier, last off season they hired a bunch of people that were widely considered to be great hires by non-Twins fans.  They haven't even been given a chance/time to start to change the culture of this organization; and the culture needed to change, judging by the lack of prospect development in the past decade.  NFL GMs are supposed to have 3 years, I've read that in MLB, it's more like 5 considering the developmental curve of prospects.  I love their approach because it's focused on solid, sustained, success and not just emotional "here and now" immediate gratification.  Who knows if it will work out, but I'm willing to give it a chance, which takes more than 20 months to determine.  The Astros, Dodgers, Red Sox, Cubs, and Yankees have all focused on building from within and it's working for them.  Sure they can afford to take more financial risks than the Twins (Dodgers the most obvious example), but that doesn't take away that they've built their foundation on internal development.

. Both the astros and cubs tank for years... Red Sox and Yankees kept vetrans around and guys that ment something to the franchise while bring up young talent... the twins just traded talent for prospects every year .. where just a big farm system for teams like you mention

[NASCAR Steve]

Couldn't agree more. I posted in one of the other Dozier threads he's going to thrive without needing to be the star of the team.

I would be rejuvenated too if I was traded on a team that made the WS last season.

or it's just dozier being dozier having a hot last two months..

[Mike Sixel]

 

Not sure that answers the question.

 

Well, since he can't answer the question you asked, what would you like him to type?

 

The Twins and Esobar's camp had talks, and did not come to agreement. Escobar was a free agent, on a bad team. Most FO would try to trade him, to make the system better. If they want him back, they can try to sign him in the off season. If he really did love it here, and they offer the most money, he'll be back.

 

This is exactly the kind of thing Ryan did not do, and is part of the reason the minors were not deep enough when he left.