Article: Minnesota Twins Trade Deadline Predictions

[Andrew Thares]

With the trade deadline just a week away, the Minnesota Twins still have yet to make a move, despite the large number of players they have who could potentially be traded. The next week is one that is sure to be filled with a ton of action for Twins fans, as the team looks to add more pieces to an exciting farm system. In this article I will attempt to predict which Twins players will be traded and to which teams I think they will be traded to.Brian Dozier

 

Prediction – Traded to the Milwaukee Brewers

 

Brian Dozier has started to heat up at just the right time and as a result has brought back some of his trade value. While there have been a number of teams with reported interest in Dozier, there have been none more so than the Milwaukee Brewers. At second base, the Brewers only decent option this year has been Jonathan Villar, who was recently placed on the disabled list with a right thumb sprain. However, even when healthy, Dozier is a considerable upgrade over Villar for Milwaukee.

 

Outside of Corbin Burns and Freddy Peralta, who will most likely not be made available in a trade for Dozier, the Brewers lack the quality pitching prospects that would intrigue the Twins. One Brewers prospect that piques my interest is outfielder Corey Ray who has showing impressive feats of power and speed, hitting 19 home runs and stealing 30 bases in Double-A this season and is currently ranked as the 5th best prospect in the Brewers system according to Baseball America.

 

Eduardo Escobar

 

Prediction – Traded to the Philadelphia Phillies

 

One of the few Twins players who has actually improved his trade value this season has been Eduardo Escobar. Last week, I wrote about him being the best available shortstop on the trade market after the Manny Machado trade. While third base is clearly his better position, I see a team in need of help at shortstop needing him the most.

 

What makes the Philadelphia Phillies the perfect fit for Escobar is their need for improvement at both shortstop and third base. Escobar’s flexibility to play both positions will serve the Phillies well as they look to play around with their lineup down the stretch.

 

Fernando Rodney

 

Prediction – Traded to the Philadelphia Phillies

 

As is always the case, nearly every team that is in playoff contention this time of year is looking to add another bullpen arm or two that they can rely on during a postseason run. While many of these teams might not be looking at Rodney to be their closer, he could still be a valuable weapon in the back-end of a contending team’s bullpen.

 

One likely candidate that I think Rodney would fit well on is the Philadelphia Phillies. The back-end of their bullpen has been a revolving door all season, and right now they have just three guys in Seranthony Dominguez, Victor Arano and Edubray Ramos that they can count on in high leverage situations during the postseason. Not only would Rodney add depth to that bullpen, but he could be a much needed veteran presence as the average age of those three is just shy of 24. Additionally, Rodney would make a great add-on piece to trade with Eduardo Escobar to try to get a higher quality prospect back in.

 

Kyle Gibson

 

Prediction – Not Traded

 

As much as I would like to see Kyle Gibson get traded before the deadline, I have a feeling that the Twins are going stay put with Gibson for now and look forward to 2019. Given the current trade market for starting pitchers, Gibson would be an ideal player for many teams to target. However, there hasn’t been much in the way of rumors surrounding Gibson, and with the plethora of players on expiring contracts for the Twins front office to focus on, I could easily see the Twins deciding to focus their attention elsewhere unless they receive a really strong offer.

 

Ryan Pressly

 

Prediction – Not Traded

 

Last week over at Baseball Prospectus, Matthew Trueblood wrote an interesting article about the trade value of Ryan Pressly, and how he might be one of the most valuable relief options on the market. Much like Kyle Gibson, Pressly is still under control through 2019 which gives added interest for opposing teams to make a trade for him. That being said, I see the Twins taking the same approach with Pressly as they will with Gibson and deciding to look towards 2019, even if I would personally prefer them to try to trade Pressly.

 

Zach Duke

 

Prediction – Traded to the Boston Red Sox

 

Zach Duke has been a sneaky good signing for the Twins this offseason. He has had a couple rough outings of late which have ballooned his ERA up to a still respectable 3.75, but his FIP remains nearly a full run lower at 2.77. Additionally, the Statcast metrics love Duke even more as he has the best expected wOBA (xwOBA) of any Twins pitcher at .263 (minimum 100 batters faced).

 

There are a number of teams who could use a left-handed reliever and one in particular that sticks out is the Boston Red Sox. Right now, the Red Sox only left-handed option out of the pen is Brain Johnson, who has a 5.10 ERA in 30 innings pitched this season. Zach Duke would serve as a considerable upgrade over Johnson in Boston.

 

Lance Lynn

 

Prediction – Traded to the Oakland Athletics in August

 

Lance Lynn is a tricky case. He has been nothing but downright bad this season (5.23 ERA in 96 1/3 innings), and wasn’t exactly highly sought after this past winter, leading the Twins to take a 1-year $12 million flyer on him. I struggle to find a team in contention where Lynn would be a good fit, but one team that could make sense is the Oakland Athletics. With their surge over the past month, the A’s are just 2.5 games back in the AL Wild Card race (entering play on Tuesday).

 

The A’s could view Lynn as a potential flyer to see if he could return to his old form. If nothing else he could be an innings eater for them down the stretch, which is something they desperately need as they have just two starters who have thrown more than 62 1/3 innings this season. If the Twins are able to trade Lynn, I think they will most likely have to eat some, if not all of the roughly $4 million still owed to him.

 

Logan Morrison

 

Prediction – Not Traded

 

When it comes to disappointing seasons, Logan Morrison’s has been on par with Lance Lynn’s. As a 1B/DH type who doesn’t provide much defensive value when playing first, Morrison’s worth relies almost entirely on his bat. Unfortunately for the Twins, Morrison has been one of the worst hitters on the team with a slash line of just .195/.288/.375 and 12 home runs (81 wRC+). At this point it is hard to see a contending team even wanting Morrison on their team to come off the bench.

 

Ervin Santana

 

Prediction – Not Traded

 

Ervin Santana is finally set to make his season debut on Wednesday afternoon against the Toronto Blue Jays. With just a week left before the non-waiver deadline on July 31st, Santana won’t have enough time to prove that he is back and ready to pitch for a contender. If there is any chance of the Twins trading Santana at all, it will have to come in August before the wavier deadline. Fortunately for the Twins, Santana should easily pass through waivers, given his contract, and will become open to being traded to any team before the end of August. Whether or not Santana gets traded will come down to how well he pitches over the next month. Given the way he has been pitching during his rehab assignment that will be a tough hill to climb.

 

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[ChrisKnutson]

At best, Dozier will net an organization’s top 30 reliever at best, not Corey Ray.

 

 

[Twodogs]

I think the Twins will be sellers but for some reason I don't know if they will be all in. I kinda think like last year when they shot Garcia off to New York and then Kintzler off to Washington they were in seller mode but then they kinda hung on from there? So I could see one of Dozier or Escobar getting shipped off but not both, I could see Lynn going if anyone wants him and maybe a reliever going away, but I just don't see all of those guys going all at once. JMO

[curt1965]

Escobar’s career has been on the rise- why trade him? Even if he’s used as a super utility player in the future- he has tremendous value. Imagine where the Twins would be without him the last 2 years!

[nater79a]

 

At best, Dozier will net an organization’s top 30 reliever at best, not Corey Ray.

 

Agree.  Position player rentals won't fetch much in the way of prospects.  Machado was the big one and he's gone now.

 

Bullpen guys with controllability is where the real action is...thus Pressly and even Hildy.

[nater79a]

I predict only two trades before the deadline.   Duke and Escobar.

 

In August, possibilities with Rodney, Dozier and Lynn.

[ChrisKnutson]

With Britton off to New York, the Twins should definitely be looking into dealing Pressly (packaged with either Mauer or Escobar) to the Astros or Dodgers.

 

While it would hurt lose a future closer in Pressly, acquiring a prospect like Yordan Alvarez or Keibert Ruiz would be worth it in the long run.

 

With the way the game is trending, Pressly is our best trade chip, we need to capitalize on it.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I've got to think Santana gets traded in August, unless by chance he throws a gem today. The problem with Erv is that someone will claim him during August waivers, leaving you with one team negotiating.

 

I think Lynn goes to an NL team. 

[Blackjack]

I hope some of your predictions come true!!

[slash129]

 

With Britton off to New York, the Twins should definitely be looking into dealing Pressly (packaged with either Mauer or Escobar) to the Astros or Dodgers.

While it would hurt lose a future closer in Pressly, acquiring a prospect like Yordan Alvarez or Keibert Ruiz would be worth it in the long run.

With the way the game is trending, Pressly is our best trade chip, we need to capitalize on it.

 

I just can't see Pressly commanding a top 50 overall prospect .... I would jump on it, but that's probably a pipe dream.

[rdehring]

Please don't trade Escobar.  Sign him to a nice extension, if not in August then at the end of the season.  He is too valuable, both on the field and off!

[Dman]

 

At best, Dozier will net an organization’s top 30 reliever at best, not Corey Ray.

 

Yeah I don't see Dozier fetching as much as I would have hoped earlier in the year.  The Brewer's would have to be pretty desperate to make that move for Ray.  He might net one or possibly two players in a teams ten to twenty range though.  I don't know if he has done enough this year to grab a headliner prospect but then again maybe I don't understand trade value all that well.

[nicksaviking]

 

Please don't trade Escobar.  Sign him to a nice extension, if not in August then at the end of the season.  He is too valuable, both on the field and off!

 

Why don't they just sign him as a free agent then? An extension likely isn't going to cost any less than a new deal in free agency and you can't force a player to sign an extension, why would he want to now?

 

Get more assets now while we can.

[mikelink45]

Time to move on - move all of these players if possible.  Too bad Reed is injured or I would move him too.  Maybe even MOTTER!  Does anyone want Grossman?  Does Cave look good enough to flip him?  Clean house.  Bobby Wilson?  I know, we are so bad that some of these players can't be given away.  But we have a new crop coming and new hope.  

[Otto von Ballpark]

I've got to think Santana gets traded in August, unless by chance he throws a gem today. The problem with Erv is that someone will claim him during August waivers, leaving you with one team negotiating.

I don't think Erv is that likely to be claimed, especially if he shows any rust his first 2 starts back. (They can put him waivers as soon as August 1st.)

[Miles Death]

Nice post, Andrew. 

 

I still have this feeling that if the price isn't high enough for Dozier and/or Escobar, the Twins may be considering bringing one of them back on the QO. But, you need to be all in in 2019 to do that, and they may be better suited to go all in in 2020 and beyond.

[Dman]

While Rodneys K9 is good and WHIP is OK I just don't trust him out there.  I can see his value for a team like the Phillies though.  His numbers are good for a setup man and can be your closer at times when needed.  He probably would come cheaper than most other options as well.  I guess we will have to wait and see.

 

Seems to me that Duke should actually be worth something as might be the best left handed rental left.  Hopefully he can fetch a decent prospect.

[jud6312]

 

With Britton off to New York, the Twins should definitely be looking into dealing Pressly (packaged with either Mauer or Escobar) to the Astros or Dodgers.

While it would hurt lose a future closer in Pressly, acquiring a prospect like Yordan Alvarez or Keibert Ruiz would be worth it in the long run.

With the way the game is trending, Pressly is our best trade chip, we need to capitalize on it.

I see virtually no chance Mauer signs off on a trade, so might as well just take it off the imaginary table.

[jud6312]

 

Nice post, Andrew. 

 

I still have this feeling that if the price isn't high enough for Dozier and/or Escobar, the Twins may be considering bringing one of them back on the QO. But, you need to be all in in 2019 to do that, and they may be better suited to go all in in 2020 and beyond.

$17+ million annually - even on a 1-year contract - for either of these guys would be a huge risk.

[nicksaviking]

 

$17+ million annually - even on a 1-year contract - for either of these guys would be a huge risk.

 

For a team with a 45M payroll? I don't see the risk.

 

I don't think a QO is necessary but it's not risky; it in no way would prevent the Twins from signing anybody and everybody they want to next year.

[yarnivek1972]

With Britton off to New York, the Twins should definitely be looking into dealing Pressly (packaged with either Mauer or Escobar) to the Astros or Dodgers.

 

While it would hurt lose a future closer in Pressly, acquiring a prospect like Yordan Alvarez or Keibert Ruiz would be worth it in the long run.

 

With the way the game is trending, Pressly is our best trade chip, we need to capitalize on it.

If you do that, you are throwing up the white flag for at least 2-4 years. I’m not sure the FO is prepared to do that. Indeed, every move this FO has made seems to be very short term focused. At least those involving MLB players. Edited July 25, 2018 by yarnivek1972

[Tom Froemming]

My only prediction is there will be fewer moves than everyone anticipates.

 

If it was me calling the shots, I'd probably try to move even more than the five guys you've predicted are going to get traded. This organization has never committed to a fire sale/tear down/rebuild, so I'm not going to hold my breath.

 

I'll guess that Duke and Lynn get dealt for very underwhelming returns. Everybody else stays.

[Dman]

 

Nice post, Andrew. 

 

I still have this feeling that if the price isn't high enough for Dozier and/or Escobar, the Twins may be considering bringing one of them back on the QO. But, you need to be all in in 2019 to do that, and they may be better suited to go all in in 2020 and beyond.

 

Yep I see 2020 as the beginning of our next wave of talent.  Kirilof, Lewis, Graterol, and others should be ready or very close to ready by that time.  Our time is coming soon.  Not that they can't be good next year it is just that more reinforcements will be ready by 2020.  Just have to hope our competition doesn't build a better team before we do.

[jud6312]

 

For a team with a 45M payroll? I don't see the risk.

 

I don't think a QO is necessary but it's not risky; it in no way would prevent the Twins from signing anybody and everybody they want to next year.

The risk is overpaying to keep the status quo, which clearly isn't working, intact.

 

Overpaying for Dozier (my guess as to which one would get it if only one were to) would give "well, we paid Brian, now we need the young guys to step up more" excuse to fall back on.

 

Enough "bad signings" (Morrison, Lynn, the hypothetical overpaying of Dozier/Escobar) and the purse strings will tighten back up if there's no on-field results.

[Doctor Wu]

My somewhat blurry crystal ball says: Dozier and Lynn are traded this month. Duke is a possible one too. And then in August we unload Santana and Rodney on waiver claims. As to which teams want these guys, all I know is what I've been reading, but who knows?

[Dman]

 

My only prediction is there will be fewer moves than everyone anticipates.

 

If it was me calling the shots, I'd probably try to move even more than the five guys you've predicted are going to get traded. This organization has never committed to a fire sale/tear down/rebuild, so I'm not going to hold my breath.

 

I'll guess that Duke and Lynn get dealt for very underwhelming returns. Everybody else stays.

 

I tend to agree.  There are only so many teams with needs and only so many prospects teams will be willing to part with. There is also competition for trades from several teams rosters beyond the Twins.  Unless the Twins are willing to take lessor offers for their players it will be very difficult to trade everyone.

 

[Vanimal46]

For a team with a 45M payroll? I don't see the risk.

 

I don't think a QO is necessary but it's not risky; it in no way would prevent the Twins from signing anybody and everybody they want to next year.

It wouldn't prevent them from signing anyone. But it certainly hurts their trade value next season... Either the Pohlads will have to eat $6-7 million or they'll receive a worse prospect because the other team takes on $6-7 million in payroll.

[Monkeypaws]

Surprised to see Britton fetch the Yankees #6 prospect per Baseball America. He seems pretty removed from his All-Star days, is a rental, and won't be eligible for a qualifying offer.

 

Maybe there will be some desperate buyers out there after all.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

My only prediction is there will be fewer moves than everyone anticipates.

 

If it was me calling the shots, I'd probably try to move even more than the five guys you've predicted are going to get traded. This organization has never committed to a fire sale/tear down/rebuild, so I'm not going to hold my breath.

 

I'll guess that Duke and Lynn get dealt for very underwhelming returns. Everybody else stays.

 

You're probably right, though moving them has more value in getting looks at some AAA guys than anything.

[Tomj14]

 

Yep I see 2020 as the beginning of our next wave of talent.  Kirilof, Lewis, Graterol, and others should be ready or very close to ready by that time.  Our time is coming soon.  Not that they can't be good next year it is just that more reinforcements will be ready by 2020.  Just have to hope our competition doesn't build a better team before we do.

I don't disagree, if the next wave is 2020, the Twins are looking at 2021 at the earliest to be real good again, and I am not ready to wait that long. IMO they have to already be good when that wave comes up to keep the fan interest.