Should Twins go all in on offense instead?

[Brandon]

Hopefully the Twins can pull off a trade for a starting pitcher. One who is low cost. But should the Twins maybe go all in on offense? JD Martinez is still available and the Twins could offer a contract. Maybe a 1 or 2 year deal or 3 -5 year deal with an opt out. Should the Twins go all in on offense if they cant get the pitching they need? Could they submit an offer that competes with Boston's.

 

Cuss and discuss....

[Taildragger8791]

At some point, no amount of offense will reliably out-hit a bad rotation. Especially once the bullpen gets overworked and dragged down too. Great pitching/defense usually beats great offense and we're going to run into that at some point. Plus, bats just inexplicably go cold at times. Even good offenses have a lot of 1-3 run games.

 

Building that way is a great way to win a good number of regular season games but is also how the Twins got blown out by the top tier teams repeatedly last year. Two more starting-caliber pitchers will win a lot more games than 2 more starting-caliber hitters on this team.

[RaoulDuke]

With offense up as a whole in the league you have to be so far ahead of everyone else to make a real run off that advantage.  I think the Blue Jays and Orioles of some recent years show this, they had killer power lineups and couldn't do diddly squat in the playoffs if they even got there.

 

To me 3 really good pitchers are worth so much more than 3 really good hitters. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

No. The 90s Rangers didn't win many championships, did they?

 

And any money spent on a long-term hitting contract is money that cannot be spent on the equivalent pitching contract. As much as we wish it wasn't true, payroll is a zero sum game.

[TheLeviathan]

I don't see any hitters that are any better investments than Yu Darvish.  

 

Mike Moustakas?  Maybe.  But that again requires us to swim in the deep end of the pool and it feels like we're still holding on to the ladder for dear life.

[Mr. Brooks]

No. The 90s Rangers didn't win many championships, did they?

 

And any money spent on a long-term hitting contract is money that cannot be spent on the equivalent pitching contract. As much as we wish it wasn't true, payroll is a zero sum game.

Yeah, neither did those loaded 90's Cleveland lineups.

Gotta have pitching at some point.

[beckmt]

You might be able to do the hitting route with a shutdown bullpen that can go 4 - 5 innings a game.  But you will never be able to outhit the current Yankees, so that does not look like a plan.

Just to give you an idea, I ran the simulation in a stratomatic baseball league with a set of cards in the mid 2000 range. (The league still exists by the way).  Bullpen was Scott Shields, Octavio Dotel, Bill Wagner and Eric Gagne all with one of their top 2 - 3 cards).  The Kansas City team that won the world series was close to that type of 4 inning a game pen when needed.  But the Twins would have to upgrade their bullpen a lot to get close to that team, so pass on the idea.

[FormerMinnasotan]

I don’t think so...outside of Jose Berrios (and Ervin Santana when healthy) the Twins rotation is nothing but question marks. Having 1 or 2 (at best) quality starters in the rotation is a recipe for a losing season no matter how much offense we have as we can’t win 4/5 games 11-10. We have promise in our prospects, but even then IF they pan out we won’t know for 1-3 years down the road.

[gman]

Of the top 10 teams in baseball in scoring in 2017, 9 made the playoffs. The Astros led baseball in scoring and won the World Series. Interesting the Dodgers were way down at number 12 in scoring. Seems like scoring isn't so bad.

[jimmer]

 

Of the top 10 teams in baseball in scoring in 2017, 9 made the playoffs. The Astros led baseball in scoring and won the World Series. Interesting the Dodgers were way down at number 12 in scoring. Seems like scoring isn't so bad

How many of those teams had ridiculously poor pitching staffs? Two, right?  One of which didn't make the playoffs (that team also had a horrible defense)?

[BrianTrottier]

 

You might be able to do the hitting route with a shutdown bullpen that can go 4 - 5 innings a game.  But you will never be able to outhit the current Yankees, so that does not look like a plan.

Just to give you an idea, I ran the simulation in a stratomatic baseball league with a set of cards in the mid 2000 range. (The league still exists by the way).  Bullpen was Scott Shields, Octavio Dotel, Bill Wagner and Eric Gagne all with one of their top 2 - 3 cards).  The Kansas City team that won the world series was close to that type of 4 inning a game pen when needed.  But the Twins would have to upgrade their bullpen a lot to get close to that team, so pass on the idea.

 

So the practical answer is no, as this is really only a viable bullpen management option during the playoffs, not over the course of a season.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Of the top 10 teams in baseball in scoring in 2017, 9 made the playoffs. The Astros led baseball in scoring and won the World Series. Interesting the Dodgers were way down at number 12 in scoring. Seems like scoring isn't so bad.

The Dodgers play in the NL with no DH, and in Dodger Stadium which is a pitcher's park. They were second in MLB in non-pitcher wRC+, only behind the Astros.

[beckmt]

 

So the practical answer is no, as this is really only a viable bullpen management option during the playoffs, not over the course of a season.

I ran this for an 80 - 96 game season at that time and then the playoffs.  My starters were crap, but I could hit the ball and relief pitching was great.  To give you an idea, I think (even though it may not have been this season) I gave up like 39 runs in a 4 game series and swept the series scoring around 60.  I also had a stadium that was a bandbox.

[beckmt]

I am saying it is viable, but the bullpen would have to be much better than it is at this time.  So practical answer for this club is no.  Bullpen would look like the Yankees with a couple of more options and a better reliever than Becienties (I know I cannot spell) for the 7th inning. 

[beckmt]

Bullpen would also need like a Mike Marshall for 5 -7 inning. 

[Twinfan & Dad]

Im in. Put Martinez in the 4 spot and let him rip.

 

Buxton

Mauer

Dozier

Martinez

Sano

Rosario

Kepler

Polanco

Castro

 

Lot of runs in that lineup.

 

Still try to trade for Archer and would possibily lose Kepler in that trade. Have to put some of the young guys in the rotation but sure would be fun to watch.

[Dantes929]

Of course it can be done.   Astros scored 7.5 runs a game in their wins in the WS.    They gave up 5.5 in those same games.    Citing great offenses that didn't win the WS as proof that great offenses can't win the WS pretty weak logic.    Your also basing your premise on the idea that the top 3 Twins pitchers can't pitch well if they do make the playoffs.    Nick Blackburn  shut down the Whites Sox in game 163 and did the same with the Yankees in the playoffs.    Were Jeter, A-Rod, Jackson, Mantle, Maris, Gehrig, Ruth, and Dimaggio shut down in the playoffs?  Astros were 1st in scoring and 11th in pitching.   Indians and Dodgers were 1st and 2nd in pitching but 12th and 17th in offense.     It takes both sides and there is anecdotal evidence to support either side but very little proof of either.   I am more a pitching and defense guy but the worse the pitching the better the offense needs to be and vice versa.    Twins should absolutely go get a good pitcher.   Hughes is not the answer.  If they can improve the offense also, all the better.

[Rosterman]

You need a top-flight rotation to keep the scoring at 4 runs or less.

 

Yes, you need an offense that can produce 4-5 runs a game, too.

 

But the best offense can't stop another team scoring BIG against you.

 

Last two seasons, look at all the Ervin Santana heartbreak because of a weak offense or a bullpen that couldn't hold a (slim) lead.

[ChrisKnutson]

At this point, after losing Darvish and Archer, the Twins just need to start handing out contracts to guys hoping they get lucky because pitchers and catchers are already reporting.

 

And honestly, I don't think it would take a whole lot of effort on the Twin's part to sign the likes of R.A Dickey, Andrew Cashner (why are teams sleeping on Cash, seriously!?), Wade Miley, and Jaime Garcia to 1-2 year deals.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I'm sorry, but wasn't it TK that said that you're only as good as your next pitcher? Yeah, SPs go once every 5 games, but they have more impact than a typical batter in one game than a batter does over the course of 5. You have to have good and competent SPs along with a decent defense. Loading up at offense at the expense of the other two parts of the game is not likely going to get a ring.

[Twins33]

I was a little bit for this before Santana went down. Now that Santana is down they absolutely have to get someone like Cobb and that would be about 15M per year minimum. So there likely isn't enough to get Martinez after that.

[Platoon]

Good. Pitching. Beats. Good. Hitting.

[ashbury]

Good. Pitching. Beats. Good. Hitting.

And. Vice. Versa. .

[twinsguy45]

We had all the offense we should have needed in the wild card game last fall.

 

Then our "ace" crapped his pants. Game over

 

Get some pitching.

[Tomj14]

How about this idea, we sign JD and a cheap starting pitcher (Tilman or Gracia for example) and if is working, we go after the ace starting pitcher hard with a couple of our amazing can't miss prospects as soon as possible.

There doesn't seem to be any starters that we really want, or willing to pay the price wanted for their talent level (Cobb/Lynn) and I am not one that says we have to spend just to spend.

[nicksaviking]

I want to spend the money on pitching.

 

But I don't want to spend it on just any pitching it has to be a difference maker(s). If using that money on an ace is not going to happen, I could get behind getting a big bat. It's not doing anyone any good not being spent. It's starting to look more like this team is going to have to go back to the drawing board to find the arm(s) they need. Developing their own or trading for a young arm isn't going to cost much money.

 

If they do spend on pitching, I don't want to waste it on more mid-rotation types. Top of the rotation only.

[Shaitan]

Isn't Levine on record and not liking opt-outs?

[USAFChief]

If the choice is add pitching or add hitting, I choose pitching.

 

If the choice is adding hitting or add nothing, I choose hitting.

[howieramone2]

 

Im in. Put Martinez in the 4 spot and let him rip.

Buxton
Mauer
Dozier
Martinez
Sano
Rosario
Kepler
Polanco
Castro

Lot of runs in that lineup.

Still try to trade for Archer and would possibily lose Kepler in that trade. Have to put some of the young guys in the rotation but sure would be fun to watch.

 Since our position prospects have always been ahead of our starting pitching prospects, the thought of playing beer ball has crossed my mind. I'll start bringing my glove to the ballpark again.

[DaveW]

Since we aren't going to spend big money in FA on SP (Darvish), I'd look to spend that money on an impact bat.

JD Martinez fits the bill quite nicely.

You can then trade one of Rosario or Kepler in a package for young SP help.