Article: Twins Sign RHP Michael Pineda

[bobs]

Maybe he can return in September and be a solid bullpen arm and then make a push for the rotation in 2019.

[ashbury]

Exactly what I was thinking.    Pretty sweet deal for him.   Has someone pay him 2mil just for working out and then giving him more than he has ever made for the following year with the risk of not coming back as strong and even if completely healthy will have missed over a year of baseball so still risky.    Club option of 8 mil for the 3rd year seems more than fair.

That sounds low for an option year. Maybe the shine is off of Pineda after several mediocre years leading up to his surgery, but he used to be viewed as a front-of-the-rotation starter.

 

So the deal as it is currently constructed amounts to $10M guaranteed money to the pitcher, in hopes of a $20M kind of season from him in 2019. That is not a long term contribution to our window of contention, but is better than a "stop-gap" and amounts to a Jack Morris kind of deal (different circumstances of course), where the long range plan is to have someone at that same caliber to step in, in 2020 and beyond.

 

But I agree, this deal shoulders most of the risk on the player's behalf, and I would have liked a team option for 2020 at, say $14M or so. If he pans out, the team wins, and even from his perspective he still collects $24M, with the ability to go for another big payday after that. If he doesn't pan out, the parties part company on good terms. Oh well. As stated above, the player wasn't open to that.

[drjim]

 

That sounds low for an option year. Maybe the shine is off of Pineda after several mediocre years leading up to his surgery, but he used to be viewed as a front-of-the-rotation starter.

 

So the deal as it is currently constructed amounts to $10M guaranteed money to the pitcher, in hopes of a $20M kind of season from him in 2019. That is not a long term contribution to our window of contention, but is better than a "stop-gap" and amounts to a Jack Morris kind of deal, where the long range plan is to have someone at that same caliber to step in, in 2020 and beyond.

 

But I agree, this deal shoulders most of the risk on the player's behalf, and I would have liked a team option for 2020 at, say $14M or so. If he pans out, the team wins, and even from his perspective he still collects $24M, with the ability to go for another big payday after that. If he doesn't pan out, the parties part company on good terms. Oh well.

 

I was also thinking an option like that, with a pretty high buyout, something like $4mil. Would guarantee a decent amount of the money and give the team some extra value if it pans out.

 

But the market is the market. People are not scared off of TJ.

[ashbury]

I was also thinking an option like that, with a pretty high buyout, something like $4mil. Would guarantee a decent amount of the money and give the team some extra value if it pans out.

I forgot about the idea (perhaps necessity) of a buyout, and frankly it reduces my interest in going for that. It amounts to guaranteeing him $14M, in the hope of a $20M kind of 2019 season from him and another in 2020 at the incremental cost of the option, and that's just enough more risk to tip me away. The actual deal suits me better in that case. Though, now, I'm wavering just before I click Post...

[nicksaviking]

 

Uggh, not a fan. A year after coming back from TJ is pretty risky. That's a lot of risk for $10 million that could be spent on something else next year.

 

It's $8M in 2019 a year in which the Twins currently have a total of $21M committed to the books. I can think of quite a few scenarios where this signing could be a boon to the club. The only one I can think of that is a detriment is if the Twins had been planning on signing Manny Machado and Clayton Kershaw in 2019.

[puckstopper1]

Seth mentioned - "It's another creative move for the Twins brass, and it doesn't necessarily stop them from doing anything else."

 

If that is *really* true, then I'm fine with this role of the dice.

[ashbury]

signing Manny Machado and Clayton Kershaw in 2019.

Remember, folks, you heard it here first!

[gil4]

 

Though, now, I'm wavering just before I click Post...

I feel very strongly both ways! (Those old Lite beer commercials had some great lines.)

[Doomtints]

Bleh. This is a move to help 2019, and as such this signing could have been done two months from now if there were still a need. Let's see something done to help 2018, which would essentially help 2019 too.

Edited December 13, 2017 by Doomtints

[mikelink45]

Yuch!

I am really not excited by this.  Maybe we want that Yankee look of Hughes and Pineda in 2019.  We rehab and he moves on.  If we have not filled out the rotation so that he would be without a position by 2019 the FO will have failed.  Lets stop being the clever boys on the block and sign what we need to fill the holes that we have now and develop the young players for 2019.

[nytwinsfan]

 

It's $8M in 2019 a year in which the Twins currently have a total of $21M committed to the books. I can think of quite a few scenarios where this signing could be a boon to the club. The only one I can think of that is a detriment is if the Twins had been planning on signing Manny Machado and Clayton Kershaw in 2019.

Yeah, but after signing Darvish, signing/trading for another reliever/starter at another $8-15 M a year for a multi-year contract, extending Dozier and Mauer, and extensions for Buxton, and one or two more of our pre-arb guys, that $21 M number is going to come way way up. It would be nice to have enough flexibility next offseason to take stock of where we are, and then spend accordingly, rather than trying to predict where we will be next offseason right now and spending $10 million. Yes, this deal has upside if he recovers completely and quickly from TJ, but that's a HUGE if.

[Doomtints]

Pineda has a negative WAA since 2014.  When the Yankees acquired him, they stashed him in the minors which seems strange. 

 

He will be 30 years old before he plays a game for the Twins.

 

I'm betting there were no other suitors for this player who was going to sit out a year. Overall this seems pretty daft as the first move the team makes. I could see this being the last move after the pressing issues are addressed, but not the first.

Edited December 13, 2017 by Doomtints

[Oldgoat_MN]

I like this move. Pineda's FIP was pretty good in 2014, 2015 and 2016.

If he comes back healthy he will be a real steal. I would have liked an option of $12M to $15M for 2020. I know it would have cost us, but the guy is a pretty good pitcher. If either 2019 or 2020 was good he would be a great value.

Maybe in our park with our OF his ERA would look more like his FIP.

[Mike Sixel]

Creative. Would be nice to get legit help for this year too. For a group of people that worry about payroll flexibility, this board sure is high on the move.

[gil4]

 

It's $8M in 2019 a year in which the Twins currently have a total of $21M committed to the books. I can think of quite a few scenarios where this signing could be a boon to the club. The only one I can think of that is a detriment is if the Twins had been planning on signing Manny Machado and Clayton Kershaw in 2019.

Even in that case, the $8M would only be a rounding error.  We would consider giving those guys $500M combined, but that $8M we spent on Pineda would make us think twice?

[purppride1]

 

My thoughts exactly.   Basically he rehabs in Minnesota in 2018 and rebuilds his value (potentially) in 2019 and then departs as a free agent for his next big contract that following off-season.  The long term benefit is not there.  I guess when you are absolutely desperate for pitching help and can't attract talent you have to resort to these kinds of measures. 

 

Perhaps the FO is seeing him as a stop gap measure.  By 2019 Thorpe and Romero should be joining the rotation (assuming they stay on track and aren't traded).  Hope this isn't the only move the Twins make.  Mlbtraderumos has stated that the Twins have been in contact with Colon's agent which is depressing if that's all they can muster.  

 

If Pineda pitches well enough in 2019 to get a big contract:

1.) We got a steal in 2019 then

2.) We'll have first shot at extending him

3.) If he leaves for big money, we'll get a pick out of it too. 

 

The structure still rewards the Twins if he recovers and returns to form. The risk is entirely in his ability to recover.  Everything I've seen from NYers is he's a tough SOB who will fight his way back as quickly as he can. 

[prouster]

Pineda has a negative WAA since 2014. When the Yankees acquired him, they stashed him in the minors which seems strange.

 

He will be 30 years old before he plays a game for the Twins.

 

I'm betting there were no other suitors for this player who was going to sit out a year. Overall this seems pretty daft as the first move the team makes. I could see this being the last move after the pressing issues are addressed, but not the first.

It seems disingenuous to paint Piñeda as having negative value. He's a solid pitcher when healthy. And any signing is of course up for debate, but running with the assumption that there weren't other suitors seems to conflate opinion with fact. Finally, I'm curious why the order of this and other potential transactions makes a difference. I'm not disputing that it does--the reason just isn't clear to me.

[Puckett34]

 

In all seriousness.  I like the low risk, highish reward signing.  Especially for the 2019 rotation.

[cmoss84]

Paying him 2 million this year to be in the bullpen in September, as many of you have mentioned. Paying him 8 million in 2019. If he stays healthy the entire year and has a decent year, completely worth the money. What will a #3/#4 starter cost in 2 years? I'm guessing more than 8. 

[prouster]

Creative. Would be nice to get legit help for this year too. For a group of people that worry about payroll flexibility, this board sure is high on the move.

Because it's pretty cheap for a solid starting pitcher. Of course, we all know why it's cheap.

[gunnarthor]

It's not a bad signing. I'm good with it. Not the answer to all our problems.

[Mike Sixel]

[bird]

 

My favorite part of the move is it shows how forward thinking, how "outside the box" Falvine are thinking.  If things go according to plan, 2019-2020 is when this roster should be hitting it's peak.  This move could make them much better for that run.

 

I agree. Strategic thinking, committment to sustained excellence, courage to assume calculated risk.

[Mike Sixel]

[Doomtints]

 

It seems disingenuous to paint Piñeda as having negative value. He's a solid pitcher when healthy. And any signing is of course up for debate, but running with the assumption that there weren't other suitors seems to conflate opinion with fact. Finally, I'm curious why the order of this and other potential transactions makes a difference. I'm not disputing that it does--the reason just isn't clear to me.

 

He has been a negative value pitcher for the past two years, and past 3 years as a whole, when compared to league average pitchers. Those are the numbers, there's nothing disingenuous there. In fact, it's disingenuous to have a narrative that is the opposite of the numbers, no?

Edited December 13, 2017 by Doomtints

[Doomtints]

 

If Pineda pitches well enough in 2019 to get a big contract:

1.) We got a steal in 2019 then

2.) We'll have first shot at extending him

3.) If he leaves for big money, we'll get a pick out of it too. 

 

The structure still rewards the Twins if he recovers and returns to form. The risk is entirely in his ability to recover.  Everything I've seen from NYers is he's a tough SOB who will fight his way back as quickly as he can. 

 

If you look at his stat sheet, the likelihood of a breakout year is low. He's a #3/#4 guy at best.

 

If he pitches well in 2019, no one is going to be paying big money for a guy with one good year by age 31/32.  

Best case (for him) is he has a #3-level year and the Twins extend him, or he becomes a good bullpen arm and the Twins extend him.

Worst case is he turns into Scott Baker and the recovery from TJ is long. He may never actually play for the Twins before his contract runs out.

This has all the red flags of the bad signings Ryan made post 2011. Let's hope this one works out.

We're again talking about the $ involved, which doesn't matter. This team isn't going bankrupt and they have yet to make an investment in a top or even mid-level player that doesn't have an asterisk. If the Minnesota Twins ever reach a point where they can't pay their bills, then let's talk about $!

Edited December 13, 2017 by Doomtints

[Tom Froemming]

Passing along some stuff I already shared on Twitter ...

 

Michael Pineda last three seasons: 9.46 K/9, 1.98 BB/9. That 4.79 K:BB ratio ranked seventh among the 78 pitchers to log 400 IP in that time frame, trailing only Kershaw, Sale, Scherzer, Kluber, Bumgarner and Carrasco.

 

His overall numbers were far less impressive because he had the worst BABIP (.328) of that sample and the second-worst HR/FB rate (17.4%). He's given up a lot of home runs, but over his career he has a 1.6 HR/9 rate at Yankee Stadium and a 0.9 HR/9 rate everywhere else.

[bighat]

Geez. The Twins brass must be really banking on being competitive in 2019. That's comforting I suppose.  This move is almost like acquiring an arm at the trade deadline, except that the trade deadline is 1.5 years away and we have no clue what this team's needs will be in 1.5 years. Very weird. Hard to get super excited about this, but then again it doesn't seem to hurt anything.

[Mike Sixel]

Joe

12:35 Do you like the Smyly's or Pineda's 2/10 deal better from the team perspective?

Dave Cameron

12:35 Pineda

Would love to see what he looks like in relief when he gets back at end of this year.

[drjim]

 

Creative. Would be nice to get legit help for this year too. For a group of people that worry about payroll flexibility, this board sure is high on the move.

 

How would this hurt payroll flexibility?