Article: MIN 7, TOR 2: Buxton Hits 3 Homers, Twins Win Series at Toronto

[Tom Froemming]

Baseball is a team game, but when one player gets on a roll it’s incredible the influence he can have. Byron Buxton has been hot ever since returning from the DL, but Sunday he really busted out. As in out of the park.

 

We’ve seen inside-the-park homers, bunt hits and incredible feats in the field, but on Sunday we saw something new from Byron: three homers.Snapshot (win expectancy chart via Fangraphs)

Download attachment: Snap827.png

Buxton had a pair of bunt hits in the first game of this series at Toronto that left a lot of people wondering why the heck he didn’t bunt more often. With how easy he made those hits look, it was a valid question. Well, here’s why.

 

Byron showed it all this weekend in Toronto. We already saw the speed. We already saw the defense. Sunday he flexed his muscles. This is the kinda stuff that made him the top prospect in all of baseball. There is nothing he can’t do on a baseball diamond.

 

Along with the trio of homers, Buxton also had an RBI single and stole his 24th base of the season. He now has both eight homers and eight stolen bases this month. Here’s hoping Buck isn’t a superstitious guy. The bat he used was especially designed for Player’s Weekend, so he’ll have to switch back to one of his normal sticks going forward.

 

Kyle Gibson had another encouraging start, limiting the Blue Jays to two runs over 6.2 innings. He gave up seven hits and a walk, but also struck out seven batters. Over his last two starts, Gibby has given up two runs over 13.2 innings and has 15 strikeouts.

 

Trevor Hildenberger (1.0 IP), Taylor Rogers (0.1 IP) and Matt Belisle (1.0 IP) combined to throw 2.1 perfect innings out of the bullpen to secure the series victory. Joe Mauer had a pair of hits, including a triple, and Jorge Polanco hit a couple doubles. Kennys Vargas also had two hits on the day and drove in a pair of runs. Max Kepler walked twice and Chris Gimenez was on base in two of his four plate appearances.

 

Standings

The Twins trail Cleveland by 6.5 games in the Central and have a 1.5 game advantage over both the Angels and Mariners for the second Wild Card spot.

Postgame With Buxton

Bullpen Usage

Here’s a quick look at the number of pitches thrown by the bullpen over the past five days:

Download attachment: Bullpen827.png

Looking Ahead

MON: OFF

Tue: Twins (Ervin Santana) vs. White Sox (James Shields), 7:10 pm CT

WED: Twins (TBD) vs. White Sox (Derek Holland), 7:10 pm CT

 

Looking Back

TOR 10, MIN 9: Sloppy 8th Inning Costs Twins in Comeback Effort

MIN 6, TOR 1: Buxton, Bartolo Get Twins Back to Winning Ways

CWS 5, MIN 1: Twins Drop Ugly Game, Series to White Sox

 

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[Old Twins Cap]

Buxton provides three very good reasons not to be bunting.

 

And hits two homers in innings when Toronto pitching struck out the side.

 

Seems like we have been waiting forever -- and ever -- for this kind of Buck fever, but it's here now, and he's only 23.

 

If they get a playoff series out of this somehow, what a growth moment for the young guys.

[AZTwin]

Can someone post his split stats pre and post all star break?

[h2oface]

Does this mean that Buxton has to wear the same uniform until the burst stops? Hey..... 17 K's today by our Twins against some pretty lame pitching, and it is not even a mention, and Buxton (... and Sano        ) was the only one to not strike out! Success and victory can cover up some usually glaring problems. Today.... who cares!!?? 

Edited August 27, 2017 by h2oface

[USAFChief]

 

Can someone post his split stats pre and post all star break?

first half:  .216/.288/.306  OPS .594

second half:  (not counting today)  .309/.350/.553  OPS .903

 

last 365 days:  (not counting today)  .251/.317/.436  

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=buxtoby01&year=2017&t=b

[ashbury]

My snap reaction to the home run outburst is to temper my enthusiasm: that pitchers around the league will adjust and we'll find out what Byron does in response.

 

But I didn't see the homers for myself until this nice video montage. Three different pitches: a somewhat hanging curve in the middle, a pitch away, and a pitch low and inside. I guess pitchers can try high-and-tight and high-and-away, but it's not like he's currently feasting on just one thing. Whereas, just a little while ago, he was punishing pitchers who pitched him consistently low and away, by poking the ball down to RF for potential triples. And before that, he was consistently getting himself out on those same pitches low and away. No, this looks like a qualitative change in our young hitter - an easy flexibility - and probably reflects some good conversations with hitting coach Rowson. I'm easily impressed, but impressed I still confess to being.

[Dantes929]

"Buxton had a pair of bunt hits in the first game of this series at Toronto that left a lot of people wonder why the heck he didn’t bunt more often. With how easy he made those hits look, it was a valid question. Well, here’s why.

Byron showed it all this weekend in Toronto. We already saw the speed. We already saw the defense. Sunday he flexed his muscles. This is the kinda stuff that made him the top prospect in all of baseball. There is nothing he can’t do on a baseball diamond."

 

 

Buxton provides three very good reasons not to be bunting.

 

And hits two homers in innings when Toronto pitching struck out the side.

 

 

 

In that first game the pair of bunts scored a run, moved two runners and got him on base twice himself.   Every one of the runners he advanced scored as did Buxton and was the difference in the game.   I made the first absurd comment that if he could maintain a .450 average bunting he should do it every time.    It was to make a point.  My real position is that however many times he could bunt and maintain more than a .400 average or better by doing so (9-19 thus far) that is how much he should bunt and I still believe that.   If you try to convince me that by hitting 3 home runs in one game means he should bunt less my response would be the second absurd statement  that if he can hit 486 home runs in a season (3 per game) then yes,  he should never bunt at all.    I don't know how high an average you need to maintain to make a bunt hit worth it given his steal rate to equal how high an average and slugging percentage  by swinging away but some one should figure it out.    I just used the .400 average as a guess.  The higher he can average and the more power he shows by swinging away the higher the bunt success percentage needs to be.    To me he was a huge part of winning the first game and a huge part of winning this game.    He did it by using all the stuff Tom referred to in the first paragraph.    To bunt less would be utilizing less of his talents and skills.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Buxton provides three very good reasons not to be bunting.

 

And hits two homers in innings when Toronto pitching struck out the side.

 

Seems like we have been waiting forever -- and ever -- for this kind of Buck fever, but it's here now, and he's only 23.

 

If they get a playoff series out of this somehow, what a growth moment for the young guys.

 

I would generally agree, but there's a time and place for both. If they are playing back, he should by all means drop the occasional bunt... but yeah... he's got power too... shouldn't waste it.

[ashbury]

I would generally agree, but there's a time and place for both. If they are playing back, he should by all means drop the occasional bunt... but yeah... he's got power too... shouldn't waste it.

At such time as his power production becomes so immense that his output is harmed by taking a sure .400 BA by bunting when the infield plays back, I imagine the batting coach will have a little chat with him and get that all straightened out.

[mikelink45]

Keep bunting, keep stealing bases, keep hitting home runs.  This is what we have been waiting for.  How fun to see him hit, field and run.  We are watching greatness unfold from this raw talent and it is something we should all enjoy.

[Bill Brown69]

This is the deal, if you can bunt, slap it to right, pull it hard and hit homers then there is no way to defend that. Use the whole field, including that 30 feet in front of home plate and the weapon that is Byron Buxton's potential is something we have never seen.

 

Sit back and enjoy the ride because this is going to be AWESOME!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[AlwaysinModeration]

I think with today's stats, his post-all-star stats are:

 

.333 / .370 / .657 / 1.027

[Kirbek]

Uh oh.  Confidence for Buck.  Watch out.  Who needs deadline trades to bring in talent when deadline deals to shed players can help make the young guys man up?  The odds of the Twins making the playoffs is increasing every day.

[Rhino and Compass]

Jim Souhan believes that Buxton is hitting so many home runs because he is skinny. 

[ThejacKmp]

Kyle Gibson is never pretty but if he can keep the Twins in games and eat some bullpen innings, that would be huge.

[Dantes929]

 

Kyle Gibson is never pretty but if he can keep the Twins in games and eat some bullpen innings, that would be huge.

Sorry, no time to do the research but it sure seems to me that when Gibson throws a lot of breaking balls and change ups he is way more successful because he has great movement on those pitches.   When he struggles he reminds me more of the bad Blackburn where every pitch looks similar.

[terrydactyls]

Who would have thought that Gibson and Colon would be the two pitchers leading the Twins towards a playoff game?

[Tom Froemming]

Here's the deal with Gibson ...

 

Batter ahead in count

First 21 start: 30.05% of the time

Last 2 starts: 19.10%

 

Batter behind in count

First 21 starts: 24.59% 

Last 2 starts: 31.66%

[Mike Frasier Law]

 

first half:  .216/.288/.306  OPS .594

second half:  (not counting today)  .309/.350/.553  OPS .903

 

last 365 days:  (not counting today)  .251/.317/.436  

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=buxtoby01&year=2017&t=b

 

In fact, according to Fangraphs, He's been the 3rd most valuable CF in baseball over the last 365 days.

 

Trout 7.7 WAR

Blackmon 6.5

Buxton 4.1

Inciarte 4.1

Dyson 4.0

[jimmer]

 

In fact, according to Fangraphs, He's been the 3rd most valuable CF in baseball over the last 365 days.

 

Trout 7.7 WAR

Blackmon 6.5

Buxton 4.1

Inciarte 4.1

Dyson 4.0

Is everyone now all in favor of using Fangraphs' WAR (which uses the ever controversial defensive metric gobbly-gook that boosts Buxton so far up) cause it shows how great Buxton is? Even posters who are so against advanced stats (especially defensive metrics that supposedly get overvalued and miscalculated), being used in any baseball argument :-)

 

Seriously, Buxton has been great and is a valuable player.  It's fun to watch him and it's just the tip of the iceberg.

Edited August 28, 2017 by jimmer

[John Kelsey]

 

Is everyone now all in favor of using Fangraphs' WAR (which uses the ever controversial defensive metric gobbly-gook that boosts Buxton so far up) cause it shows how great Buxton is? Even posters who are so against advanced stats (especially defensive metrics that supposedly get overvalued and miscalculated), being used in any baseball argument :-)

 

Seriously, Buxton has been great and is a valuable player.  It's fun to watch him and it's just the tip of the iceberg.

 

B-Ref WAR rates him much better than Fangraphs. 

[jimmer]

 

B-Ref WAR rates him much better than Fangraphs. 

Either way, point is the same. If you remember people were minimizing/discarding the defense value of thee WAR, say, Sano/Hunter when the metrics were bringing down the perceived value of both.  And in some cases, Rosario this year.

Edited August 28, 2017 by jimmer

[Mr. Brooks]

Either way, point is the same. If you remember people were minimizing/discarding the defense value of thee WAR, say, Sano/Hunter when the metrics were bringing down the perceived value of both. And in some cases, Rosario this year.

Are you sure it's the same people though?

There are a lot of posters here.

[ThejacKmp]

I hate when there's no baseball game. I know they need a day off but ugh.

[70charger]

 

I hate when there's no baseball game. I know they need a day off but ugh.

 

Agreed. As if Minnesotans needed another reason to despise the winter.

[Mike Sixel]

Are you sure it's the same people though?

There are a lot of posters here.

Definitely the same

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

What an impressive win. With Gibson pitching following a tough loss, there was reason for concern. 

 

It's a tight wild card race, but a whole lot more fun to have teams looking up at us. I'm also not convinced the Yankees are a wild card lock. The Twins and the Yankees play each other one more time. Gonna be fun!

[SwainZag]

 

Sorry, no time to do the research but it sure seems to me that when Gibson throws a lot of breaking balls and change ups he is way more successful because he has great movement on those pitches.   When he struggles he reminds me more of the bad Blackburn where every pitch looks similar.

 

Here's the deal with Gibson ...

 

Batter ahead in count

First 21 start: 30.05% of the time

Last 2 starts: 19.10%

 

Batter behind in count

First 21 starts: 24.59% 

Last 2 starts: 31.66%

 

These posts are directly related.  When Gibson has command of his fastball and can locate that on the corners instead of missing, he gets ahead in the count more and uses the breaking stuff a lot more often, which in effect he is usually much more effective.

[Dantes929]

 

Either way, point is the same. If you remember people were minimizing/discarding the defense value of thee WAR, say, Sano/Hunter when the metrics were bringing down the perceived value of both.  And in some cases, Rosario this year.

I mostly discard it but in Buxton's case I minimize it.    The eyeball test says he saves a lot of runs with his range (not so much his arm) and a lot of runs turns into wins but my eyeball doesn't know how to convert the runs into wins but defensive WAR does.   Maybe in his recaps Tom should do an analysis of how much value above replacement in that specific game Buxton had defensively.     For example if he makes a catch with two outs and no one on in a 5 run win it probably doesn't count as a WAR but if he makes the same catch with bases loaded in a 1 run win he can count it as a full WAR.    In between scenarios can be assigned a fraction intuitively assigned by Tom.    Then we can compare what he comes up with in a season to the statistic.   So the Twins would have to actually win for it to be counted.  That way he wouldn't have to save 10 runs for a mythical WAR.   It could be more or less.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

All the other wild card teams play tonight, except Texas. Chance to gain another half game!