Rhino and Compass

Welcome to the Twins, Walker, and I am sorry to hear about the litany of future health problems you have been signed up for

I am a Purdue basketball and Twins baseball fan, and no longer have the capacity for optimism, and will consider this season a good one if it is not raining at most of the games I try to go to.

Hey, maybe he took a calculated risk to just take it in the chin, rather than throw hands and break a finger or something.

A couple of general thoughts. Baseball free agency is basically a bunch of guys looking for jobs, and a bunch of employers looking for employees. It's not an auction, and while salary is important, just like for us, it's not the only thing. Many players do have family considerations, and most players are from one of the coasts, or from the south. The player population from the upper Midwest is lower, and in that basic regard, I don't believe Minnesota has the same appeal to a lot of players who would want to be closer to home. Second, it is easier to attract players as a contender. Sure, the Twins keep making the playoffs, but their postseason track record has to be taking a toll on their reputation. Posters have been laughing off the climate factor, but it illustrates another point. People don't know as much about Minnesota as we think. Many of us have been to Florida or Texas or California or New York, but there aren't many reasons for someone to come to Minnesota. I've met people in California who wondered if we got around in snowmobiles all the time, or what we do for fun in the Midwest. I suspect someone who comes here for 3 nights a year in August doesn't really get many of those questions answered, Also, don't forget that we are all acclimated to Minnesota. Look at Byron Buxton or Eddie Rosario from Georgia and Puerto Rico, bundled up on a 50 degree night in May. That's 2 months into the season, and that IS cold for 80% of players. There is a money factor, but I also believe that for many people that don't have a concept of Minnesota or the Twins would want more money to come here than with other options, and I think the Twins resist handing out big contracts to free agents because they are worried about having to pay a "Minnesota" premium to get them to come. Paired with their traditional frugality, I think the organization is always gun-shy about giving out contracts. Still, it's probably a two way street, the Twins want to pay too little, and some FA's want too much to come here. We are stuck with the FO, and the FA's are then gone, so we only have the FO as a punching bag.

Not only will I keep an eye on their baseball development, but I will also make sure to get a hold of Ryan Mason when I get my Allman Brothers Tribute Band off the ground.

A lot of people had Arraez pegged for a contender for the batting title, so his sub .300 average, to me, counts as off. He's making hard contact at a better rate than ever before, so when he adapts to the defensive adjustments in place against him, I think his avg. will bounce back in a big way.

In an active pursuit for pitching, Garver and Kepler are traded to teams looking for a solid MLB catcher and one that thinks Kepler can play center, and probably has a short porch in right. This happens only after the Twins relent and pay Byron Buxton. C Jeffers 1b Sano 2b Refsnyder SS Polanco 3b Arraez LF Rooker CF Buxton RF Kirilloff DH Donaldson This suggests that I think the Twins are not optimistic about the overall health of Josh Donaldson, in opting to have him at DH over Rooker or Kirilloff. Also, and this is a really hot take, but Jake Cave will be back next year, mostly to spell the corner outfielders. His numbers will be significantly better, but will be roundly reviled by fans.

The risk to the players is not the concern in many of these discussions. Other personnel are not as young and spry as the players, and those people wouldn't necessarily be kept in the same bubble as the players. As to the other point, I can assure you that the chance of any of these players being struck by lightening is absolutely 0

I think the answer, with regards to Astudillo is right there in your description of Barnes as a pitcher. Astudillo doesn't strike out, so if the imperative is to make contact, it's hard to go wrong with Willians. A high k pitcher is a perfect opportunity to use him if the goal is simply to put a ball in play, given his unique approach

Teams just don't like releasing players if they suspect the stint in the majors will be brief. That's a common thread among all teams. I don't think they had a long term goal with Cave, and thus, there was no irreversible roster move to correspond to it, like there would have been with Wade.

Obviously, it was only one game and isn't predictive of anything or necessarily prove any of you wrong, but it IS a little funny that Jake Cave took the roster spot and hit a 2 run homer in his second at bat after this conversation started.

If Kinley has made it this far, I just don't see the Twins sending him back to the Marlins so they can call up one of those three guys, two weeks into the season. He'll be on the roster until the Twins get another 20-30 games under their belt, I would bet

I was saying at the game yesterday that Sano just looks petulant at the plate. I wonder how much the cold gets to him, but also, I wonder if he is the type of guy that gets so in his own head that it's deleterious to the rest of his game. There are a few guys that just seem to shut down in cold weather. Sano, Eddie Rosario especially, but Rosario seems like he has the capacity to self correct. and didn't have the offseason Sano did. don't worry, June's coming in a couple months, and we'll probably even be in the 60s by then

I think in general I'm going to worry about a pitcher in his mid 30s, and moreso if they have a recent injury

Every game this season has come while I'm at work. That's going to have to change, Ugh.

I think two things in favor of changing from TR to the current regime 1) The team had lost for 6 straight years, and their investment in a new stadium hadn't yet translated to wins. It was just time for a change. 2) The organization under Terry Ryan just couldn't seem to develop starting pitching. They couldn't evaluate when to trade their prospects, and they never seemed to work out in the Majors. The Twins needed to improve their pitching organizationally, and this change sought out not only to develop and evaluate pitching talent. There is nothing to suggest that this has been a failure. On the other hand, yes, I think TR and fiends were excellent at player acquisition, and that goes a long way towards the core that is in place now. I just never trusted him with a rotation

I, for one, don't believe Jose Altuve has any choice but to hit the bottom of the ball. He would have to jump to get on top of one to hit it on the ground anywhere.

I suspect that unless the Twins get a rock bottom price, they are loathe to give up a pick for a year or two of a pitcher that was going to be their 2nd or 3rd choice, at the very best. I'm just assuming they intend to be done (but you never know, injuries, etc.)

That's fair. I tried to couch my language to reflect that it was just my interpretation of what I've heard, and based it in experience travelling and living out of state, not that it was a statement of fact.

Sure, there are bound to be exceptions to the rule, and Reed is a good example of someone who had been in the Midwest and enjoyed their time here, and had said as much. The overall point is that as much as we would like to boil it down to one, free agency isn't just an auction, it's a bunch of guys trying to find the right job fit for themselves and their families.

I think one thing is clear to me that seems like an elephant in the room... Minnesota is not a popular destination for young men from warm climates. Of course we all think that the Twin Cities or Minnesota is great, but it doesn't have a global or even national reputation as a fun place to hang out. If you are from Florida or California, or especially the Caribbean or South America, would you want to go to a small market team where all you know is the time you were there in April and it was 50 degrees? No, probably not. Don't underestimate the lack of desire to spend your thirties in Minneapolis, especially if you are from Miami, Santo Domingo or Tokyo. I suspect the Darvish situation played out like this. Twins reach out to Yu, and he is up front about how he would prefer not to come to Minnesota, but he doesn't have any offers from his preferred destinations yet (LA, Texas) Ultimately, those offers never come, the only real option for him is Chicago, but the Twins slipped him an offer just to think about in case nothing better comes along. So, yeah, they were "in on" Yu all off season, but they never actually had a chance. Now, the remaining top end pitchers I fear aren't asking for the widely circulated contract demands, but are asking for a premium to come to Minnesota. If my interpretation is correct, then by all means, trade away.

I think with all the talk of how close Thad was with Darvish, it's more likely that, from the outset Yu told them the Twins weren't viable contenders for his services. He wanted to go somewhere he was comfortable, like the Rangers or Dodgers, but they weren't interested, so failing that, he wanted to go to a big market. He's from Tokyo-Osaka, it's not unreasonable to believe that given the choice, he wouldn't want to spend his 30s in a sleepy midwestern town. When the Dodgers and Rangers were out, my impression is that the Cubs were the only viable alternative in his mind. Maybe the Twins offered 5/100, but perhaps thats only to say they did. I get the impression that they could have gone 6/150 and they still wouldn't have been in the neighborhood. Anyways, I didn't think he would come here, and I am not a big fan of big free agent deals, esp. for pitchers, so I'll survive. The only problem is the hype the Twins built up for us this offseason. I think a trade is a better avenue for long term improvement. If the twins were going to sign a FA, I wanted Chatwood, so I was already irritated with the Cubs before Darvish went there

1) I prefer trades to FA's for two reasons - You can guarantee the value of prospects long term. If you pay for a free agent, you know the money is gone. I'm down with an Archer trade, if it comes to that. It's worth a gamble IMO 2) I'm totally ok with trading for Archer if the centerpiece of the deal is the team's third best outfielder. 3) Not a chance this deal happens

Part of the reason that players see their contracts balloon is the big money teams making aggressive moves into free agency, but this year, for various reasons, not the least of which that next year is a more influential class. Nothing changed... Smaller market teams don't suddenly have the money to spend that big market teams do. Only the Cubs are actively seeking pitching, and there are 4 pretty good pitchers out there, and they don't have much competition if they are only looking at Darvish. This offseason is just economics, supply and demand. Alternatively, I did see something, I believe it was from Hardball Times, that said because the MLBPA failed to look out for international free agents, they became a much cheaper alternative, and there is less interest in those more veteran FA's that cost so much money. I think it's more Part 1 than Part 2, but its economics over collusion either way

The biggest revelation is that the Twins had a prospect named Mat Batts, and I had no idea