Time for Gibson to go - Souhan Strib

[darin617]

This is long over due. They should have dealt him last off season. He doesn't seem to have that fire in him that makes a player a winner.

[laloesch]

 

Keep him for the rest of the year. 

 

Make the decision in the off-season. 

 

He has had enough mediocre built up that I am debating offering Arb. 

 

He'd have to have a real strong September that was driven by some sort of adjustment for me to bring him back. 

 

Agreed.  I would think it would take a lot of convincing to bring him back via arbitration.  Look we've all seen this from him before.  A couple of good starts followed by a half season of sucking.  Something along those lines.  I just think the Twins can do better than Santiago and Gibson. 

[amjgt]

 

I have not seen Gibsons' last two starts, or heard anything about him. Is there something different about his last two starts? Mechanics change? Add or ditch a pitch? Velo up? Or just small sample size mirage?

 

Seems to me like he's throwing offspeed more and with my untrained eyes, I swear he's getting way more downward movement on it.

[LimestoneBaggy]

Isn't this what all sinkerball pitchers do? Streaky good when the command and the sinking motion is on, but when either is off, they go full on mediocre to bad (I swear this is the same story with Blackburn, Silva, etc). I would assume if the offspeed stuff isn't leading the way, he's going to continue to vacillate between good and bad starts.

 

He's everything you'd want on a team, and more (for minor league depth), if his offspeed stuff isn't getting whiffs.

[yarnivek1972]

Gibson is gone at the end of the year, and for this year they are not likely to find anyone better unless they make a trade.

 

If the Twins make the WC game and the playoffs beyond, it's not like he would be on the roster I would think. Gibson is kind of a non-issue at this point. If the other starters can give the team a chance to win the usual 40-60% of the time, Gibson's 30-35% won't kill the team too much.

Neither Mejia or Santiago are sure things down the stretch or possibly beyond either. I don't know what the roster rules are for the one and done wild card game. But obviously a team would probably only carry one or two starting pitchers if that were allowed.

 

Anyway, as it stands now, Gibson probably slots as the # 4. Very rarely will teams only use 3 starters in the ALDS or beyond. I certainly don't view Ervin, Colon or Berrios as candidates to pitch on short rest.

[stringer bell]

 

Got my phonetic pronunciation from that bastion of Canadian culture, Kingston ON's own Don Cherry.

From the Kings:  "Hey Little Donna, I still wanna. You said to ring me up when I was in (sure sounded like Toranna, but the lyrics say Toronto).

[adorduan]

 

Seems to me like he's throwing offspeed more and with my untrained eyes, I swear he's getting way more downward movement on it.

That's what I see too.  More movement on his pitches for some reason.

[Mike Sixel]

 

This is long over due. They should have dealt him last off season. He doesn't seem to have that fire in him that makes a player a winner.

 

I just want to say thanks for using "have" there the first time, and not "of". back to the topic....

[Twins33]

I have not seen Gibsons' last two starts, or heard anything about him. Is there something different about his last two starts? Mechanics change? Add or ditch a pitch? Velo up? Or just small sample size mirage?

Could be part of it: https://twitter.com/brandon_warne/status/902683207874879488

[nicksaviking]

 

Keep him for the rest of the year. 

 

Make the decision in the off-season. 

 

He has had enough mediocre built up that I am debating offering Arb. 

 

He'd have to have a real strong September that was driven by some sort of adjustment for me to bring him back. 

 

If I'm the front office I trade him if at all possible but I don't offer him arbitration if for no other reason than to force myself to be actively looking for better pitchers in the off season.

 

Not that I think they'd do it, but I'd really hate for them to look at the 40-man, see experienced arms like Santana, Berrios, Mejia, Hughes and Gibson along with "in the wings" guys like Gonsalves, Romero, Slegers, Jorge and Litttel and start to get the idea that they might have too many mouths to feed as it is.

 

Gibson looks like the easiest subtraction to help motivate the team to chase better quality pitching this winter. Man, Kyle Gibson earning 5M bucks? It's hard to see him not getting his name written in pen for the rotation to start 2018.

[twinsnorth49]

 

From the Kings:  "Hey Little Donna, I still wanna. You said to ring me up when I was in (sure sounded like Toranna, but the lyrics say Toronto).

The Kings and Don are about the only ones who say Toranna, one for effect and the other because it rhymes with Donna.

 

Anyway.....back to Gibson....if you must.

[USAFChief]

 

The Kings and Don are about the only ones who say Toranna, one for effect and the other because it rhymes with Donna.

 

Anyway.....back to Gibson....if you must.

Maybe it's just because they wanna.

[twinsnorth49]

Maybe it's just because they wanna.

Like a bunch of lunatics.

[spanman2]

Let's be thankful for the recent success from Gibson rather than focusing too much on the garbage he was dealing earlier in the season.  It is all in the rear view mirror.  If we can get another 5 quality starts or so out of the guy that would be golden...personally I do not think he is brought back next year due to the extreme swings in performance we tend to see from him.  I don't see that being in the new FO'S blueprint for long term success.  I think a change of scenery would do him and the organization well. 

[Platoon]

It's not even the money, by this point. I wouldn't have him on my roster next year even if he agreed to a league-minimum contract, if that were allowed by the CBA without first being cut loose.

 

Maybe I'd consider him if he offered some kind of under-the-table illegal kickback resulting in a significant net-negative salary. Maybe.

I thought you said it wasn't about the money? :). When I watch him I see two things. While its from the outside looking in, he looks timid when he pitches, and he looks rattled, even angry by mistakes behind him. Whatever the case, he certainly has had enough of a tenure here to allow an educated opinion of his future performance.

[USAFChief]

 

Like a bunch of lunatics.

like your nanna.

 

edit:  or Carlos Quintana.

 

edit2:  Maybe Benihana.

[ashbury]

I thought you said it wasn't about the money? :).

Good catch.

 

http://izquotes.com/quotes-pictures/quote-when-someone-says-it-ain-t-the-money-but-its-the-principal-of-the-thing-it-s-the-money-elbert-hubbard-344678.jpg

[yarnivek1972]

Let's be thankful for the recent success from Gibson rather than focusing too much on the garbage he was dealing earlier in the season. It is all in the rear view mirror. If we can get another 5 quality starts or so out of the guy that would be golden...personally I do not think he is brought back next year due to the extreme swings in performance we tend to see from him. I don't see that being in the new FO'S blueprint for long term success. I think a change of scenery would do him and the organization well.

I personally have a hard time declaring the last two plus seasons to be in the "rear view mirror" based on two starts against bad teams. Especially considering a couple of different bounces on a couple of balls in play could have resulted in vastly different outcomes. Gibson allowed 16 baserunners in less than 14 IP Iin those starts. That's more lucky than good IMO.

[AlwaysinModeration]

I personally have a hard time declaring the last two plus seasons to be in the "rear view mirror" based on two starts against bad teams. Especially considering a couple of different bounces on a couple of balls in play could have resulted in vastly different outcomes. Gibson allowed 16 baserunners in less than 14 IP Iin those starts. That's more lucky than good IMO.

That's a WHIP under 1.20. Isn't that good?

 

Gibson has had five starts in August. He lost to Hamels on August 5, giving up 3 runs (2 after two batters on a just-barely Mazara homerun) in 5.1 innings. Then he got pulled up 5-3 after 4.2 innings against Detroit on August 11. On August 17, he wasn't good, getting pulled in the 5th against Cleveland, down 3-1 with no one out. Then 7 innings, 1 run (8Ks) against Chicago, 6.2 innings, 2 runs (7Ks) against Tronno.

 

His ERA is 3.90 in those five August starts, all with Molitor having an extremely short leash. I don't know if he's turned a corner, but he's been pitching just fine for the past month.

[Thegrin]

In  the Chicago game he started by giving up seeing eye singles.  He persevered and kept throwing his sinker. He ignored the bad luck and kept throwing his best pitches.  After the 2nd inning I was extremely pleased.  He ignored the luck and kept throwing.  By the 7th inning he was convinced he is a major league pitcher with major league quality pitches.  Perhaps Colon's "What, me worry." attitude has rubbed off on Gibby.  I wouldn't be surprised if he pitches extremely well for the rest of the season.  

[mikelink45]

 

I have not seen Gibsons' last two starts, or heard anything about him. Is there something different about his last two starts? Mechanics change? Add or ditch a pitch? Velo up? Or just small sample size mirage?

Lets say that a good defense is more than essential for Gibson to succeed.

[Thrylos]

Data:

 

Gibson 1st half: 6.31 ERA, 5.91 FIP, 13.6% K%, 3.5% K-BB%, 1.77 WHIP (.335 BABIP)
Gibson 2nd half: 4.17 ERA, 3.35 FIP, 21.9% K%, 14% K-BB%, 1.41 WHIP (.342 BABIP)

 

Buxton 1st half: .216/.288/.306, .265 wOBA, 58 wRC+
Buxton 2nd half: .330/.366/.641, .413 wOBA, 159 wRC+

 

I suspect that the same people who think that Buxton will be an MVP based on his second half  (there is a thread around) want to non-tender Gibson despite his second half.

 

Usually the truth is some place in the middle.   Gibson's BABIP has been ridiculous, including the second half.  When he was demoted he worked with the pitching coach down there and made some changes that apparently made him a better pitcher.   That 3.35 FIP, along with his capability to throw 200 innings do not grow on trees.  I'd truly wait and see what Gibson (and a bunch of other pitchers) can do with a better pitching coach next season before I pull the plug.  Gibson is a fine number 4-5 starter in a competing team.   The problem with this team is that it does not have a true number 1 and 2 starters.   Get 2 starters better than Berrios (maybe even 1 internally), hope that May returns healthy, get a decent pitching coach, and Gibson will be the least of the Twins' problems in 2018.

[DaveW]

It's almost like players, especially ones with youth can sometimes improve!

[yarnivek1972]

That's a WHIP under 1.20. Isn't that good?

 

Gibson has had five starts in August. He lost to Hamels on August 5, giving up 3 runs (2 after two batters on a just-barely Mazara homerun) in 5.1 innings. Then he got pulled up 5-3 after 4.2 innings against Detroit on August 11. On August 17, he wasn't good, getting pulled in the 5th against Cleveland, down 3-1 with no one out. Then 7 innings, 1 run (8Ks) against Chicago, 6.2 innings, 2 runs (7Ks) against Tronno.

 

His ERA is 3.90 in those five August starts, all with Molitor having an extremely short leash. I don't know if he's turned a corner, but he's been pitching just fine for the past month.

Given the level of competition, no I don't think it is terribly impressive. Better than Gibson has been? Sure. The pattern for Gibson the last two years has been get in trouble and then it unravels. In the last two starts, it didn't. Is that a change in his approach or luck?

 

By their nature, sinker ballers are dependent on luck. Luck is a ground ball finding an infielders glove instead of the outfield. Even luckier would be turning such a groundball into a double play. Yes, Gibson recorded an unusually high number of Ks last couple times. Again, facing last place, playing out the string teams.

 

I was among those who felt Gibson should have been non-tendered last November. So, perhaps in that way I am biased. I don't consider one month of acceptable performance to be enough to forget two full years of poor performance. Way too little, way too late IMO.

 

Given all the injuries and subpar performances, would not having Gibson around all year have been difficult? Perhaps. Although, perhaps in his abscence the FO makes a move in the previous offseason to upgrade. Perhaps, Jose Berrios doesn't needlessly spend April and almost half of May in Rochester. Perhaps an earlier opportunity is given to Aaron Slegers. Perhaps, Stephen Gonsalves is promoted to AAA a little sooner and perhaps he is in the MLB rotation now.

 

Would all those "perhaps" have been a net gain over Gibson? We'll never know. But I am finished with Gibson. IMO, he's played this game of putting together a couple good starts in a row to show that he is worthy of a spot on the team for far too long. The body of work is what it is. He's terrible. One of the worst starting pitchers in Twins history. That isn't going to change even if he does post 5 more decent starts this season.

[jimmer]

Gibson needs to go. A few good starts doesnt erase all the bad this year or last (or mostof his career).Let someone else make the mistake of rostering him next year.

 

And Buxton and Gibson struggles are nothing alike. One is what. 8 years older than the other?

[old nurse]

 

If I'm the front office I trade him if at all possible but I don't offer him arbitration if for no other reason than to force myself to be actively looking for better pitchers in the off season.

 

Not that I think they'd do it, but I'd really hate for them to look at the 40-man, see experienced arms like Santana, Berrios, Mejia, Hughes and Gibson along with "in the wings" guys like Gonsalves, Romero, Slegers, Jorge and Litttel and start to get the idea that they might have too many mouths to feed as it is.

 

Gibson looks like the easiest subtraction to help motivate the team to chase better quality pitching this winter. Man, Kyle Gibson earning 5M bucks? It's hard to see him not getting his name written in pen for the rotation to start 2018.

There is no reason to think Gibson can get that much in arbitration.

 

[snepp]

 

There is no reason to think Gibson can get that much in arbitration.

 

He's making $3 million this season, average arbitration raise is around 100% over the past few years, $5 million is certainly in the ballpark.

[drivlikejehu]

Even AAAA pitchers have decent runs if you throw them out there for long enough. Gibson is not a guy you pencil into the rotation to start the year. He turns 30 in the off-season and has been among the worst starters in the AL over a period of several years. I can see an argument for having him around as a long reliever/spot starter, but I don't particularly care for him even in that role.

 

I think it's pretty much guaranteed that the Twins will part ways with him. He might be able to put up 160 decent innings in San Diego or something, but he's basically useless to the Twins.

[old nurse]

 

He's making $3 million this season, average arbitration raise is around 100% over the past few years, $5 million is certainly in the ballpark.

Is Gibson an average player? If you are going to make the argument he will get the average raise then he would have to be near the average player. 

Shelby Miller's raise was 10% last year.   Miller has above average potential. It was not evident in 2016.   Il certainly look forward to see how you  can justify calling Gibson an average pitcher.  

While you do that consider Michael Wacha got a 400% raise.  Odorizzi an 800%. McHugh a 700%  Stroman 600%  How many players will it take getting less than 100%  raise for the average to get to 100%    Any explanation of the math on how Gibson will get an 100% raise would be appreciated. It would take a lot of players to bring the average down to 100 %  There were 156 filed last year.  Most settled before a hearing.  It would take over 90 players averaging 25% to get to the 100% number you stated. The other 60 would then have to average 100%

[old nurse]

The problem with Gibson is defined in context. They may have to keep him. Bodies and money become the limiting factors. Next year's rotation you have Santana and Berrios.  Gonsalves and Jorge are unlikely to be ready for the start of next year given their starts in AAA this year. That is not to say that one of them might not be ready by midseason next year.  I think it would be reasonable for them to be considered your back up plan for mid season injury. Dillon Gee starting could be the team's viewpoint on the future of Hurlbut and Slegers.   I think those four with Romero and the token veteran reclaim project are your Rochester starters and backup plan. The problem becomes slots 3-5 on the major league team. For better or worse Mejia sticks as the third holdover. Trevor May and Phil Hughes are coming off injury. It would not be prudent  to count on them for the start of next year as starters. The team will need a free agent signing. Hopefully an overpay for one of the quality arms and not a Santiago type. It would be unlikely they can sign two given supply and demand. It may be hard enough to even sign one. There is not a large supply. There will be demand.  That leaves the 5 spot. Enns has not shown much. Low priced one year contract veterans last year were Derek Holland, Tyson Ross, Bret Anderson, Jeff Locke, Scott Feldman, and Jered Weaver. What might be out there on a similar level this year is likely to perform about the same. Gibson is the devil you know. A low enough contract to dispose of if the minor league players develop. The front office looks less bad keeping him than signing a bad mediocre player. The average increase was 100% in arbitration. Earlier I pointed out the winners. Somebody does not get the big raise. One of those will be  Gibson. He got his step up last year, when players get the payday in the first year of eligibility. Not this year. See Shelby Miller. See Caleb Joseph.