Article: Line Of Succession

[Nick Nelson]

The catastrophic start to the Minnesota Twins season has led fans to ponder the fate of Terry Ryan, the general manager and architect of a team that appears headed for a fifth 90-loss season in six years.

 

Recent comments from owner Jim Pohlad served to reinforce a notion that has long been held by followers of the team: Ryan isn’t going anywhere unless it’s on his own terms.

 

But who is to say that day isn't drawing near?Pohlad has faith in Ryan. This much is obvious, and always has been. When you step back from the lens of a Twins fan who is frustrated with the woeful state of the big-league team, it isn’t all that hard to see why.

 

Ryan has been a GM for two decades, and has been involved with the game professionally twice as long. He has seen everything there is to see. He has relationships with everyone in baseball. He receives effusive praise from his colleagues and peers. His passion and investment could never be questioned.

 

With that being said, it's certainly reasonable to cast doubt on his adequacy for the head role at this point, given the way many of his key decisions are now playing out on the field. The fact that he’s a “baseball man” and oversaw the construction of a team that contended for many years at the turn of the century doesn’t mean that he’s the best person for the job in 2016.

 

From this perspective, the bitterness stirred up by ownership’s deferment to Ryan in the face of major organizational turmoil is understandable. But it ignores the fact that Ryan’s tenure may be reaching an end in the relatively near future regardless.

 

At 62, Ryan is approaching the standard retirement age. He’s the second-oldest general manager in baseball, behind Sandy Alderson of the Mets. He initially stepped aside following a losing 2007 season that took a toll and wore him down; this 2016 campaign is shaping up to be more tumultuous and gut-wrenching than that one in all regards.

 

Even if it’s his call, how much longer is he really going to wait to make it?

 

Focus turns to a line of succession, which presently looks quite insular. This is where it becomes problematic that the Twins have done so little to add fresh blood to their front office structure. Ryan’s right-hand men are longtime fixtures like Rob Antony, Mike Radcliff and Wayne Krivsky.

 

If things continue down the path they’re going, I don’t think anyone would feel too inspired by Ryan’s replacement being promoted from within the current braintrust.

 

It’s awfully hard to envision the Twins looking outside though, isn’t it? This is a franchise that hasn’t hired externally for a manager or general manager opening in my 30 years of life.

 

The Twins’ decision to re-hire Ron Gardenhire last month as a special assistant to the GM was met with a few scoffs and snide jokes for obvious reasons, but it highlights a very real issue that is becoming magnified. Why are these kinds of positions being used to give jobs to old friends rather than grooming potential GM candidates that aren’t completely ingrained in the existing culture?

 

I know many, if not most, will disagree, but I’m not all that bothered by the owner’s aversion to firing Ryan. The man is an MLB institution. Even amidst his rougher patches – and this is clearly one of them – I have faith in his competence and qualification.

 

I can’t necessarily say the same for anyone who would be in line to take over internally, nor can I express any real confidence in the organization’s top decision-makers to comb all available avenues for a fitting successor. They’ve never done it before and they continually show minimal interest in bringing outside influences or ideas to the baseball operations department. The last time Ryan stepped down his job was handed to his second-in-command, and we got the underwhelming Bill Smith years.

 

It's not upsetting that the Twins aren't considering firing their GM in May. That would be reactive and likely unproductive. It's upsetting that they aren't being proactive in laying out a roadmap for after he's gone. That lack of proactiveness could leave them in a very tough spot when their aging GM decides, again, that he doesn't have the heart for it anymore.

 

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[Seth Stohs]

i would have confidence in Rob Antony, Brad Steil and Jack Goin as potential GMs. 

 

Antony has great respect in the industry as a negotiator. He has a high-level of respect from the agents. He has the respect of the scouts and evaluators. 

 

Brad Steil has changed things up quite a bit since taking over for Jim Rantz as Twins minor league directors. He's definitely analytical. He's under 40. We've seen an aggressiveness in terms of promotions compared to Rantz. 

 

Jack Goin is very smart and obviously it's his job to be analytical. He definitely gets the other aspects, scouting and such. He probably hasn't done as much in terms of contracts, but he should be a consideration based on us wanting more analysis. 

[tobi0040]

"i would have confidence in Rob Antony, Brad Steil and Jack Goin as potential GMs. 

 

Antony has great respect in the industry as a negotiator. He has a high-level of respect from the agents. He has the respect of the scouts and evaluators. 

 

Brad Steil has changed things up quite a bit since taking over for Jim Rantz as Twins minor league directors. He's definitely analytical. He's under 40. We've seen an aggressiveness in terms of promotions compared to Rantz. 

 

Jack Goin is very smart and obviously it's his job to be analytical. He definitely gets the other aspects, scouting and such. He probably hasn't done as much in terms of contracts, but he should be a consideration based on us wanting more analysis."

 

To be quite honest, I am 50/50 as to whether this article and comment represent actual opinions or intentional red meat for frustrated fans.

 

The notion that the Twins could possibly hire an internal person to replace Terry Ryan, or that someone would be "allright" with that person being Rob Anthony or Brad Steil is really hard to swallow.

 

If there was ever a team that needed a respected outsider to come in, clean house, and drive change it would be this franchise. 

 

[Intramural Legend]

Seth, I love everything you do for this site, but you can't be save the titanic with the second in command. This team desparatly needs outside help. It can no longer be ignored. More of the same will not work!

[Rosterman]

Is there a fear that an external candidate might clean the house too much, from manager and coaches down to minor league coaches and the way to do things, that prospects would be jettisoned randomly rather than looking at a potential bigger picture (and realistic) that the Twins will compete come 2018, not 2015 (the surprise) or 2016 (the dream).

 

The talent is there. They just need the seasoning, the exposure. But whoever becomes general manager also has to realize that the couple of missing pieces, when the team IS ready to make a push, may be expensive and also a roll of the dice. Not just surrounding the core with mid-level (and expensive) middle of the rotation guys, or castoffs from other teams. Any player added to the roster from outside the organization should be a player that another team might covet, not ignore.

 

I would vote YES for an outside the system general manager if the Twins were in shambles. If there was no talent on the farm. 

 

If there is a shakeup, it will be on field management. Do you promote the guys who have been working with the future (Dougie M, Jake Mauer, etc.).

 

Yes, the rebuilding process will not sit well with the common fan who spends dollars to watch a game and buys the shirts and whatnot. The Twins have to figure out a way to put butts in the seats, or be content that their profits may dwindle (and, I guess, the payroll really shrink). But the payroll can't really shrink too much, and shant shrink come the time to compete, which may not be fullout until 2018 with victory in 2019 if so many pieces fall into place.

[DaveW]

If the Twins fire Ryan (Which they should do) they absolutely, positively, no doubt about it,  100% lock of the century, need to go outside the organization to bring in some overdue, and sorely needed new blood/outside thinking.

 

Antony, Goin etc are all solid baseball minds, and perhaps someday they will all get and deserve a GM type role, but it absolutely should not be with the Twins. It has been 25 years since the Twins sniffed a world series appearance, at some point you need to shake things up completely. The time is now (or after this 90 loss season) hiring Ryan's right hand man is not the answer.

 

[howeda7]

The penalty for selling the team is about to expire. It would be best if the disinterested Pohlads would sell and let a new owner clean house. 

[Mr. Brooks]

Please, I can't handle the thought of turning over to Antony, and having to watch a 70 year old Terry Ryan come out of retirement for tenure #3 when it fails epically.

I've had a LOT of patience these last 6 years, and I'm willing to be patient for a few more years if there is a legit blueprint to success laid out.

If the replacement comes from within though, I just don't think I can do it. I don't think I can handle perpetual bad baseball with no payoff in sight.

[Teflon]

A wise man once said that nothing succeeds like succession. May have been Trump. 

[USAFChief]

 

The penalty for selling the team is about to expire. It would be best if the disinterested Pohlads would sell and let a new owner clean house. 

Serious question:  do you know when, exactly?  Have a reference?

 

I know I remember there being a penalty for selling the club, but I can't remember the details.

[nicksaviking]

Sorry, but as far as Im concerned Anthony had his audition when he put an opening day 25-man together that included a no longer physically capable Jason Kubel and Jason Bartlett as an outfielder.

 

That spoke volumes about his take on the "old boys club" atmosphere. I'm not opposed to second chances, but I am in this case.

 

He and Ryan are good, honest and loyal men, but that doesn't qualify them to be a GM. In fact, if we based it on the rest of the business world, those qualities might be antithetical to winning.

[USAFChief]

I really, really think this organization needs new blood.  A fresh perspective.  Someone who will look at every single thing without existing bias.  

 

Consistency is a good thing, but like any good thing, it can and sometimes does become a liability when taken to extremes.

[KirbyDome89]

The best argument for keeping TR is that he is better suited to be the GM than anybody directly below him? Its a terrible argument and it speaks volumes about the Twins. I think the most depressing part is that I can't even say I disagree. I honestly can't see this organization going with a true outside hire for a new GM. If the only options are TR or one of his henchmen (lets be honest those are) then I guess I would rather TR see this whole thing through. 

 

I can't believe I just uttered that last sentence....

 

 

[mickeymental]

to paraphrase jack nicholson in batman, this club needs an enema.

[Ncgo4]

"Antony has great respect in the industry as a negotiator. He has a high-level of respect from the agents."

 

Really? It may not be respect, it's love. The rediculous contracts the Twins have given out in the last few years and some of the extensions "negotiated" are so unexplainable that it will be a wonder most agents don't have Twins management high on their Christmas list.

[TheLeviathan]

Firing Ryan and replacing him with Anthony would be utterly pointless.

 

I'm sure Rob Anthony is a fine person, but he'd be a god awful replacement choice. No one should be fine with this organizations nepotism any more.

[Boom Boom]

Handicapping the Twins GM search:

 

Rob Antony 2-1

Brad Steil 7-2

Ron Gardenhire 5-1

Wayne Krivsky 12-1

Jack Goin 30-1

Andy McPhail 40-1

Nick Punto 50-1

The Field 99-1

[Mike Sixel]

 

Sorry, but as far as Im concerned Anthony had his audition when he put an opening day 25-man together that included a no longer physically capable Jason Kubel and Jason Bartlett as an outfielder.

That spoke volumes about his take on the "old boys club" atmosphere. I'm not opposed to second chances, but I am in this case.

He and Ryan are good, honest and loyal men, but that doesn't qualify them to be a GM. In fact, if we based it on the rest of the business world, those qualities might be antithetical to winning.

 

This. Antony has no business being a GM. How anyone can look at what he did and think so, makes me speechless. 

[markos]

I definitely will add my voice to the chorus hoping for an outside candidate for GM. However, I do have my reservations. There is a chance, maybe even a good chance, that after 6 straight mediocre-to-terrible seasons, the new GM will have a win-now (or win-soon) mandate from ownership. We all saw how quickly AJ Preller gutted the Padres farm system. At least someone from within the organization would have (or should have) an appreciation of the time and effort it has taken to rebuild the system over the past several years, and would hopefully be willing to ride it out for a couple more seasons. It would be exceedingly frustrating to see someone new come in and trade away Polanco, Stewart, Gordon, Jay, Gonsalves, Jorge, Wade, et al for quick fixes. And if (or once) that effort fails, to have to watch the rebuilding start anew.

 

Now the right GM hire probably wouldn't make that mistake, but I'm not convinced the Pohlads would make the correct choice. During the interview process, it is certainly possible they would prefer a candidate that promises wins sooner rather than later.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I definitely will add my voice to the chorus hoping for an outside candidate for GM. However, I do have my reservations. There is a chance, maybe even a good chance, that after 6 straight mediocre-to-terrible seasons, the new GM will have a win-now (or win-soon) mandate from ownership. We all saw how quickly AJ Preller gutted the Padres farm system. At least someone from within the organization would have (or should have) an appreciation of the time and effort it has taken to rebuild the system over the past several years, and would hopefully be willing to ride it out for a couple more seasons. It would be exceedingly frustrating to see someone new come in and trade away Polanco, Stewart, Gordon, Jay, Gonsalves, Jorge, Wade, et al for quick fixes. And if (or once) that effort fails, to have to watch the rebuilding start anew.

 

Now the right GM hire probably wouldn't make that mistake, but I'm not convinced the Pohlads would make the correct choice. During the interview process, it is certainly possible they would prefer a candidate that promises wins sooner rather than later.

 

Given their insistence on hiring a manager with NO experience.....ya, I don't trust the owners either.

[alarp33]

 

i would have confidence in Rob Antony, Brad Steil and Jack Goin as potential GMs. 

 

Antony has great respect in the industry as a negotiator. He has a high-level of respect from the agents. He has the respect of the scouts and evaluators. 

 

Brad Steil has changed things up quite a bit since taking over for Jim Rantz as Twins minor league directors. He's definitely analytical. He's under 40. We've seen an aggressiveness in terms of promotions compared to Rantz. 

 

Jack Goin is very smart and obviously it's his job to be analytical. He definitely gets the other aspects, scouting and such. He probably hasn't done as much in terms of contracts, but he should be a consideration based on us wanting more analysis. 

 

I appreciate your attempt to be positive amidst all the negativity surrounding this team, but its really hard to take your baseball opinions seriously when you write this kind of stuff.  

[USAFChief]

I definitely will add my voice to the chorus hoping for an outside candidate for GM. However, I do have my reservations. There is a chance, maybe even a good chance, that after 6 straight mediocre-to-terrible seasons, the new GM will have a win-now (or win-soon) mandate from ownership. We all saw how quickly AJ Preller gutted the Padres farm system. At least someone from within the organization would have (or should have) an appreciation of the time and effort it has taken to rebuild the system over the past several years, and would hopefully be willing to ride it out for a couple more seasons. It would be exceedingly frustrating to see someone new come in and trade away Polanco, Stewart, Gordon, Jay, Gonsalves, Jorge, Wade, et al for quick fixes. And if (or once) that effort fails, to have to watch the rebuilding start anew.

 

Now the right GM hire probably wouldn't make that mistake, but I'm not convinced the Pohlads would make the correct choice. During the interview process, it is certainly possible they would prefer a candidate that promises wins sooner rather than later.

If "stay the course" is the goal, then there is no point in making ANY change. Just stay the course, because no change in philosophy or execution is necessary.

 

Personally, I hope if there is a change, the new guy tries to win sooner than later.

[Jack Torse]

"Ryan is likely to step down and take the heat off the organization for making a change at GM if an improbable rebound doesn't occur.  But what will that change?  It's not like he's going to be replaced with a different guy with a philosophy that isn't lock stock and barrel with the same Twins cliches.  They are reluctant to bring in players from outside their ball team much less  someone from the outside to lead the front office.  Most of the players are not performing like anyone expected.  Worse, most are performing well below expectations.  They have a lot of young players in over their heads to begin with.   Plus key injuries. It's kind of just that simple and given so much youth not that unexpected."

 

My comment on the same topic last week

[Jeremy Nygaard]

The answer to "who's next in line" seems clear to me.

 

From a USA Today article last year: Torii Hunter.

 

"Hunter, you see, wants to be a GM one day. If he retires after this season, he hopes to work in the Twins' front office, learning under Ryan, while also working in TV."

 

A "Twins guy", but not the way they typically roll. Mientkiewicz replaces Molitor. Jones replaces Bruno. Pierzynski replaces Vavra. ESPN shoots a new cover, "The Team That Saved the Twins."

 

 

[nokomismod]

 

Handicapping the Twins GM search:

Rob Antony 2-1
Brad Steil 7-2
Ron Gardenhire 5-1
Wayne Krivsky 12-1
Jack Goin 30-1
Andy McPhail 40-1
Nick Punto 50-1
The Field 99-1

 

You forgot Torii Hunter at 120-1

[Platoon]

There is a reason Anthony, Goin, and Krivinski are Ryans right hand men. They all are on the same page, those who weren't are gone. I would imagine the outside hiring pool would be limited. You might get a young ambitious guy who wants to build a resume and then move on. While I think Ryan should retire, I just can't see anyone operating successfully with this ownership. Win some games, be a low level contender? Sure. But a top notch competitive organization? Never while the Pohlads own it.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Seth, I love everything you do for this site, but you can't be save the titanic with the second in command. This team desparatly needs outside help. It can no longer be ignored. More of the same will not work!

 

I didn't say those three should be the only options, just that I do think they have a few guys internally that would do a good job.

 

Just because they work for someone doesn't mean they would do exactly the same things if they were in charge. Do you think they all just sit in a room and agree completely on everything? 

 

In Nick's article, he also wrote that he didn't necessarily think staying inside would be the right (or wrong) decision. But as he wrote, it's hard to envision them going outside, so let's consider the internal options. Hence, I threw out three names of internal options, each of which are very capable.

[tobi0040]

So it looks like the Twins going outside for their next GM is near unanimous. 

 

I worked for Target when the last CEO was fired.  He was fired because sales were slumping, the data breach and his awful response, Canada was a complete debacle, and they were falling behind their competitors in the most important aspect of retailing (driving sales using mobile devices).   The #2 person at the company was in the running for the job.  She was by any metric respected, very smart, in many ways capable . At the same time, they absolutely needed an outsider to come in and offer a fresh perspective and that is what they did.  The Twins need the same.

 

One could make a case that Goin would offer something drastically different than Terry and I think that is true to an extent.  But at the same time we could pluck an external SABR person as well. One from a team that is farther along than the Twins.  That would be the best of both worlds in my opinion.  The other benefit of an outsider is this front office and field team needs some turnover and it is much easier to do that when they are not golfing buddies.

[gocgo]

The fact of the matter is that the Twins have painted themselves into a corner by hiring, rehiring, and shoehorning the same people over and over.  Would Bill Smith have been given a position in any other organization?  Probably not.  Was Ron Gardenhire swooped up by another organization in the year that he sat on his couch?  Nope...but the Twins found spots for both of them in the organization.

 

If you were a candidate for the GM position, is this a situation that you would want to step into?  Think about it for a second.  An existing GM isn't going to want to come to the Twins.  First time GM's are the only candidates that are going to consider the position.  Now consider that you are basically stepping into a family owned, family run, good old boy club business.  And you think you're going to clean house?  Not going to happen.

 

[HitInAPinch]

Thanks Nick and Seth.  I was getting worried we would have anything to "discuss" today  

 

Yeah, it's turning into another nasty year.  I've been mildly cynical about the young players and I think I'm being somewhat vindicated.  Sorry about that.  I don't really see a veteran on this team that's a real leader.  [Dozier was selected].  And the Twins still have a problem with acquiring / buying talent.  Everything is just kinda filling in the pothole and not paving a new road.

 

History says, it's time for a change.  Some one from outside the organization that has:

1. A vision of acquiring talent from outside the organization
2. The balls to request the Pohlad family make good on their claim to make the money available to build a successful team.
3. Bring in a new set of scouts for an honest evaluation of the MiLB system.

Rob Antony, Brad Steil and Jack Goin, IMHO, are not part of the problem.  Contract negotiator, Head of the MiLB system and a advanced-stats guy.  They supply info to the GM.  I don't honestly see a  GM-type in the group.

 

Having said this, I have my doubts that the Pohlad's  [son's of a banker] would spend the money on an outside GM replacement.