Royce Lewis, Trevor Larnach, and the Two-Step Arbitration Shuffle

[bjorks]

5 hours ago, mluebker said:

Keaschall at first. If he’s going to have to learn a position to keep his bat in the lineup, it might as well be there. And I don’t buy the whole “a first baseman must be a power hitter” line of thinking. He’s a solid hitter who creates excitement on the basepaths, two things Lewis has demonstrated he isn’t.

As for Lewis’s hypothetical upside, how many years are we going to talk about that before acknowledging that he’s showed us who he is already? If they can’t trade him, DFA him and let both him and the Twins move on.

Theres 1%> Keaschall will ever play at 1B. 

As mentioned yesterday if the Cards actually would be open to trading Burleson, who's in Y2 of arb, can you attach Lewis, w/Zebby, ERod, and a lower level Top 30 guy? The (oh please lord) new owner, who may want to make a splash move, or Tom will have to decide if Burleson is eventually a $30+ AAV type player? And if he is are you OK if he regresses to what he was, which was closer to Josh Bell? 

[LA Vikes Fan]

5 hours ago, Linus said:

To me, money is not the issue. Neither arbitration amount is that onerous. The question is - do you want the player?  I would probably bring Lewis back but only with the caveat that he earns playing time and might end up as a utility player. Larnach shouldn’t play in the field but I want to shoot higher if I’m going to have a full time DH. It’s complicated by the fact that EmRod has a substantial chance of being a bust and has no options. If he thrives we have no use for Larnach; if he busts Larnachs OPS+ of 121 looks pretty good as a safety net. 

This, and it applies to both players. Larnach is a problem to have if EmRod and to a lesser extent Roden are healthy and showing promise. Lewis "clogs up" the infield if Houston is ready to take over SS or 2B, or we trade for a 2B, and need 1B for Clemens because we don't want him to be a super utility. On the other hand, if what we saw in the small 50 AB tryout we gave to EMRod is who he really is and Roden is the guy he was in 2025 and not the guy he showed in his 100 AB tryout in 2026, it sure would be nice to have Laranach around. 

In other words, there are a lot of moving pieces here. Both Lewis and Larnach could have value on the roster or be completely redundant. That's true you before you consider who we might get in a trade or trade away, which adds even more uncertainty. That's why you don't make a decision now or at some arbitrary deadline like the tender deadline. You grow some cojones and wait on that decision until you have to make it because the circumstances are likely to change in a way that could impact that decision. Tender them both, come to terms with them both if you have to. Try to trade them from the day after the World Series ends until the last day of Spring Training if you have to wait that long. The only way you lose that bet is if you have players for their positions that you like better and you can't get anything in a trade for one or both, and I mean not even a decent AA player or high upside A ball lottery ticket. You go in with a competitive mindset and that you lose one or both guys if you have better players even if you have to eat their salary. It's a $5 million or $6 million bet per player. I think it's worth making that bet given the cost of player acquisition and development. The conservative cost certain approach would be to try to trade them before the tender deadline and then nontender them if you can't get a return. That's a lousy bet. Pay the money and take your chances. Go big or go home, don't hide your checkbook when it's time to take some risk to make some money. You can't reach your ceiling if you don't jump so grab your balls and jump for a change.

[Linus]

34 minutes ago, LA Vikes Fan said:

This, and it applies to both players. Larnach is a problem to have if EmRod and to a lesser extent Roden are healthy and showing promise. Lewis "clogs up" the infield if Houston is ready to take over SS or 2B, or we trade for a 2B, and need 1B for Clemens because we don't want him to be a super utility. On the other hand, if what we saw in the small 50 AB tryout we gave to EMRod is who he really is and Roden is the guy he was in 2025 and not the guy he showed in his 100 AB tryout in 2026, it sure would be nice to have Laranach around. 

In other words, there are a lot of moving pieces here. Both Lewis and Larnach could have value on the roster or be completely redundant. That's true you before you consider who we might get in a trade or trade away, which adds even more uncertainty. That's why you don't make a decision now or at some arbitrary deadline like the tender deadline. You grow some cojones and wait on that decision until you have to make it because the circumstances are likely to change in a way that could impact that decision. Tender them both, come to terms with them both if you have to. Try to trade them from the day after the World Series ends until the last day of Spring Training if you have to wait that long. The only way you lose that bet is if you have players for their positions that you like better and you can't get anything in a trade for one or both, and I mean not even a decent AA player or high upside A ball lottery ticket. You go in with a competitive mindset and that you lose one or both guys if you have better players even if you have to eat their salary. It's a $5 million or $6 million bet per player. I think it's worth making that bet given the cost of player acquisition and development. The conservative cost certain approach would be to try to trade them before the tender deadline and then nontender them if you can't get a return. That's a lousy bet. Pay the money and take your chances. Go big or go home, don't hide your checkbook when it's time to take some risk to make some money. You can't reach your ceiling if you don't jump so grab your balls and jump for a change.

I really agree with your “lots of moving pieces” description. It’s kind of been that way for the last several years which is why this concerns me some. 

[ziggy]

6 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

If the player wins, they are obligated to sign him. They aren't obligated to keep him. But they still have to pay them. Losing arbitration and then just releasing the player is awful roster management. You're suggesting dropping 12+ million for absolutely nothing.

It's my understanding that if the team loses arbitration they do not have to sign the player.

[soyouresayingtheresachance]

Non Tender both. If you're sure you can make a deal, then sign and trade 

[tony&rodney]

23 minutes ago, ziggy said:

It's my understanding that if the team loses arbitration they do not have to sign the player.

When a team agrees to go to arbitration they have agreed to a contract. Clubs may sign the player before a hearing and a player may be traded but the contract is done, except for the amount, once the team makes the decision to go to arbitration.

[TheLeviathan]

6 hours ago, Twins GFP said:

Another article where the bulk of the comments suggest the Twins throw away viable big league assets for nothing.

 

We have very different definitions of "viable" and "assets"

[chpettit19]

40 minutes ago, ziggy said:

It's my understanding that if the team loses arbitration they do not have to sign the player.

They 100% do. The arbitration decision is a binding agreement. Once the arbitrators pick the number, (team or player) that is the contract that has to be signed by both parties and the player is guaranteed that salary. There's no backing out once you offer arbitration. Once it's offered, you either agree to a number before your hearing, or you're bound by the result of the hearing.

[old nurse]

3 hours ago, MeleMouth said:

The Rays would trade Larnach for a 40 prospect pitcher who they thought they could tweak.

Even the Rays couldn’t get a 40 prospect for Larnach. They would find a pitcher they could teak and then trade that player after a successful year

[MeleMouth]

5 minutes ago, old nurse said:

Even the Rays couldn’t get a 40 prospect for Larnach. They would find a pitcher they could teak and then trade that player after a successful year

The Rays got a 40 prospect pitcher for Orze. You'd think Larnach could fetch at least the same. Of course, the Rays got the 40 prospect from the Twins.

[old nurse]

38 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

We have very different definitions of "viable" and "assets"

If there was a team out there that had a need for a LF platoon and as a stopgap player and ignores the previous years of hitting he is viable.  There is also a needle in a haystack somewhere 

[TheLeviathan]

1 minute ago, old nurse said:

If there was a team out there that had a need for a LF platoon and as a stopgap player and ignores the previous years of hitting he is viable.  There is also a needle in a haystack somewhere 

By all means we should ask around.  I'm willing to take on the castaway of another franchise too, but that's what we're talking about here:  castaway for castaway swaps where you believe you can squeeze more out of a player than the last team.

Those aren't assets I'm sweating over losing, but I'll absolutely explore if I can squeeze one last drop of value out of them.

[Cris E]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

When a team agrees to go to arbitration they have agreed to a contract. Clubs may sign the player before a hearing and a player may be traded but the contract is done, except for the amount, once the team makes the decision to go to arbitration.

It's worth noting that the Twins rarely go to arbitration with their players. They almost always split the difference on the submitted numbers to avoid nasty hearings and the players almost always sign for the same reason. Of course we haven't had a lot of Skubal-like arbitration cases so there's no saying what would happen if they did run into one where they had to dig their heels in a bit. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

11 hours ago, mluebker said:

Keaschall at first. If he’s going to have to learn a position to keep his bat in the lineup, it might as well be there. And I don’t buy the whole “a first baseman must be a power hitter” line of thinking. He’s a solid hitter who creates excitement on the basepaths, two things Lewis has demonstrated he isn’t.

As for Lewis’s hypothetical upside, how many years are we going to talk about that before acknowledging that he’s showed us who he is already? If they can’t trade him, DFA him and let both him and the Twins move on.

Keaschall hit 123 wRC+ in 2026. Were he a first baseman that would rank him in the 10-15 range of qualified 1b. He hits well enough to be a 1b. My question is if he can field the position adequately. I’m curious, and he’s too young to DH.

this move would free up DH/corner OF for Larnach, and Buxton to rotate through.

i can see a path to 2 step Larnach because he hits well enough in a platoon, and isn’t a terrible fielder, that he could be an asset for this team even with all the outfield depth. If the trade doesn’t workout, he’s still a good player.

Lewis, gotta non-tender. No one will trade anything for a player with a $5m roster spot they can sign to a minor league deal after the lockout ends.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

6 hours ago, LA Vikes Fan said:

This, and it applies to both players. Larnach is a problem to have if EmRod and to a lesser extent Roden are healthy and showing promise. Lewis "clogs up" the infield if Houston is ready to take over SS or 2B, or we trade for a 2B, and need 1B for Clemens because we don't want him to be a super utility. On the other hand, if what we saw in the small 50 AB tryout we gave to EMRod is who he really is and Roden is the guy he was in 2025 and not the guy he showed in his 100 AB tryout in 2026, it sure would be nice to have Laranach around. 

In other words, there are a lot of moving pieces here. Both Lewis and Larnach could have value on the roster or be completely redundant. That's true you before you consider who we might get in a trade or trade away, which adds even more uncertainty. That's why you don't make a decision now or at some arbitrary deadline like the tender deadline. You grow some cojones and wait on that decision until you have to make it because the circumstances are likely to change in a way that could impact that decision. Tender them both, come to terms with them both if you have to. Try to trade them from the day after the World Series ends until the last day of Spring Training if you have to wait that long. The only way you lose that bet is if you have players for their positions that you like better and you can't get anything in a trade for one or both, and I mean not even a decent AA player or high upside A ball lottery ticket. You go in with a competitive mindset and that you lose one or both guys if you have better players even if you have to eat their salary. It's a $5 million or $6 million bet per player. I think it's worth making that bet given the cost of player acquisition and development. The conservative cost certain approach would be to try to trade them before the tender deadline and then nontender them if you can't get a return. That's a lousy bet. Pay the money and take your chances. Go big or go home, don't hide your checkbook when it's time to take some risk to make some money. You can't reach your ceiling if you don't jump so grab your balls and jump for a change.

Royce had an 85 wRC+ for the season, at 60 plate appearances that ranked him 48th. 17 teams (over half) had two first baseman who hit better than he did. 

Ryan Kreidler hit 85 wRC+ and he’s a backup SS who actually fields the position well and he’s a marginal major leaguer.

its a bigger risk to include Royce in their plans at all.

[mikelink45]

I think the fans have seen enough of Lewis, but have the Twins?

[ziggy]

4 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

They 100% do. The arbitration decision is a binding agreement. Once the arbitrators pick the number, (team or player) that is the contract that has to be signed by both parties and the player is guaranteed that salary. There's no backing out once you offer arbitration. Once it's offered, you either agree to a number before your hearing, or you're bound by the result of the hearing.

From google search....

>>>MLB teams are not required to sign players who win arbitration hearings; instead, the arbitration process determines the player's salary for that season. <<<<

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, ziggy said:

From google search....

>>>MLB teams are not required to sign players who win arbitration hearings; instead, the arbitration process determines the player's salary for that season. <<<<

From tony&rodney....

AI is correct about 80-90% of the time and Google is about the same.

100% = When a MLB club agrees to go to arbitration with a player, they have signed a contract. The amount is either settled by each side in discussions or the arbiter assigns a value, choosing one of the figures from the numbers submitted by the player and the club. 

[MN Brian]

1 hour ago, tony&amp;rodney said:

From tony&rodney....

AI is correct about 80-90% of the time and Google is about the same.

100% = When a MLB club agrees to go to arbitration with a player, they have signed a contract. The amount is either settled by each side in discussions or the arbiter assigns a value, choosing one of the figures from the numbers submitted by the player and the club. 

So while the contract is signed & valid at that point, it appears that there is still some wiggle room in that it is not guaranteed and a player may be cut with a smaller payout.  Does that sound correct?

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/39708783/jd-davis-released-giants-beating-team-arbitration

[Riverbrian]

10 hours ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Royce had an 85 wRC+ for the season, at 60 plate appearances that ranked him 48th. 17 teams (over half) had two first baseman who hit better than he did. 

Ryan Kreidler hit 85 wRC+ and he’s a backup SS who actually fields the position well and he’s a marginal major leaguer.

its a bigger risk to include Royce in their plans at all.

You always look at all 30 teams to compare and contrast and this makes you a strong poster whose opinions I always pay attention to. 

Everyone should look around the league and see what is happening at the 1B position to realize just how bad the Twins have been at development for over a decade now. Other teams are cranking out young 1B with ease. We have Royce being force fed. 

Certain players are given opportunity after opportunity. Thousands of them.

Other players can scrape to get 79 AB's... produce a .768 OPS in a small sample and not be allowed to increase that sample. 

It's a pretty unfair world at times and this unfair world is the result of front offices that get it wrong... frequently. 

[rv78]

Trade them both for a prospect. Heck, I'd even thow in a GabrielGonzalez and Ober and then use the freed up salary to resign Jeffers or a legit 1B. Do we want to improve the roster or not?

[Twins GFP]

16 hours ago, TheLeviathan said:

We have very different definitions of "viable" and "assets"

You have players that other teams could use at the proposed salary. You trade them for something, even a flyer, rather than give them up for nothing. Pretty straight forward. They are assets.

If the Twins did not have MiLB outfielders pushing, Larnach would be in the opening day starting lineup next year without question. Yet everybody just wants to throw him away for nothing.

[Kummel]

This is sounding familiar --  the Twins hoping to trade a player, then not finding team interested in that trade.

 It's interesting to see the teams which remain in playoff contention today. According to spotrac, three of the remaining teams are among lowest payrolls in baseball this year: Guardians (lowest payroll, #30), Rays (#28), White Sox (#24th).   Twins slot in there at #22.

It does make you reflect on how Twins organization handles roster construction and other things in comparison to these playoff teams with lower payroll.

[Whammy]

21 hours ago, LA Vikes Fan said:

This, and it applies to both players. Larnach is a problem to have if EmRod and to a lesser extent Roden are healthy and showing promise. Lewis "clogs up" the infield if Houston is ready to take over SS or 2B, or we trade for a 2B, and need 1B for Clemens because we don't want him to be a super utility. On the other hand, if what we saw in the small 50 AB tryout we gave to EMRod is who he really is and Roden is the guy he was in 2025 and not the guy he showed in his 100 AB tryout in 2026, it sure would be nice to have Laranach around. 

 

I see Larnach the way you do. I just don't see how you get him regular playing time with all of the young guys who need roster spots and playing time. He had a perfectly fine 2025, but not good enough to push away playing time for the young guys. I think he's movable in a low wattage trade, but I really want that to be before we would have to offer arbitration. If we don't get an offer, by the arbitration deadline, then I'd just non-tender him and move on.

The problem i have with them hanging onto Lewis is different. I do think, if used correctly, that he could be a valuable member of some team's 26 man roster (including the Twins). But, I just don't at all trust the Twins to use him correctly. There's too much history. I'd be shopping him in November and I DO think we'll get some offers, especially given his second additional year of team control. Different than Larnach though, if I get to the deadline and haven't gotten an offer appealing enough, I definitely offer him arbitration. 

[LA Vikes Fan]

40 minutes ago, Whammy said:

I see Larnach the way you do. I just don't see how you get him regular playing time with all of the young guys who need roster spots and playing time. He had a perfectly fine 2025, but not good enough to push away playing time for the young guys. I think he's movable in a low wattage trade, but I really want that to be before we would have to offer arbitration. If we don't get an offer, by the arbitration deadline, then I'd just non-tender him and move on.

The problem i have with them hanging onto Lewis is different. I do think, if used correctly, that he could be a valuable member of some team's 26 man roster (including the Twins). But, I just don't at all trust the Twins to use him correctly. There's too much history. I'd be shopping him in November and I DO think we'll get some offers, especially given his second additional year of team control. Different than Larnach though, if I get to the deadline and haven't gotten an offer appealing enough, I definitely offer him arbitration. 

Good post. I see that distinction and don't completely disagree with you. I still think Larnach has enough value to take the risk of a $6.3 million arbitration result because you never actually have to pay that money if you don't want to. It's my understanding that the team do not have to sign a player based on the arbitration amount. They can release that player and walk away but they have to pay the player termination pay the player is released during Spring Training. As long as the release comes before the start of the season, the player could be owed0, or at most 30 or 45 days prorated pay based upon the arbitration award. So let's say Larnach gets an arbitration award of $6.3 million. His contract technically runs for one full championship season which is 180 to 186 days depending on the schedule. So if Larnach got a $6.3 million arbitration award, that's a $35,000 a day contract based on a 180 day championship season. Talk about detail that only a lawyer could love.

Here's what that really means. The Twins can take Larnach to arbitration and their risk is at most 45 days of pay if they release him prior to the start of the season, which is $1.575 million. If they release him in the first 16 days of Spring Training, they're obligated to pay him 30 days of pay or $1.05 million. If he is released prior to Spring Training starting, the obligation is zero. So the risk of tendering a guy like Larnach a contract, then going to arbitration if he won't sign for the amount on that contract, is that the Twins would be out (1) $0 if he is released before the start of Spring Training, (2) $1.05 million if he's released in the first 16 days of Spring Training, and (3) $1.575 million if you keep him throughout Spring Training, can't find a taker, and then just release him before the start of the season. There is no world in which you take the risk of having to pay a full guaranteed contract unless you actually sign the contract, which you have to do before season starts to keep the player.

In other words, there's almost no financial risk to the team of going through the arbitration process unless you actually sign a contract. So to me, if my highest risk is something like $1.57 million and I think that there is any possible taker out there, I tender Larnach a very team friendly contract before the deadline, go all the way through arbitration if he does not sign it (I don't cut a later deal), and have him come to Spring Training, all the while trying to trade him for value. That way you cover yourself if you have a rash of injuries and need the player, although he is likely to be less than thrilled with the team at that point, and the total dollar risk is limited if you can't cut a deal and just release them at the end of ST. $1.575 million risk is negligible in the overall scheme of a $315-$350 revenue million operation, which is the Twins total revenue as publicly estimated.

 

[Cris E]

51 minutes ago, LA Vikes Fan said:

In other words, there's almost no financial risk to the team of going through the arbitration process unless you actually sign a contract.

But then don't bother signing it, because it'll be pretty apparent to other teams how much playing time he's getting, how his spot on the roster looks compared to the guys they are actually preparing for the season, if he's treated like a starter, etc and they'll just wait for the obvious March 30 cut and pick him up then.  It's not a very practical feint when you factor in how the rest of the roster has to be twisted to cover for it. 

If you can't trade him then he goes free. We picked up some decent pitchers last year from that crowd, and someone could end up scoring a very usable LF if we can't place him. Same with Lewis, although there's more chance someone will take a flyer on his hot streaks and brooding genius potential.