Making the Playoffs Would Change the Twins’ Offseason

[Cody Christie]

Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images

For most of the 2026 season, the Minnesota Twins have lived in an uncomfortable middle ground. They aren't rebuilding in the traditional sense, but they also aren't loaded with enough established talent to be considered a clear contender. Instead, they've spent much of the year hovering around the American League playoff picture while trying to figure out exactly what this roster can become.

That uncertainty was understandable. The Twins entered 2026 coming off a massive organizational reset with a new general manager in Jeremy Zoll. Plenty of young players needed opportunities, veterans needed to prove they belonged in the next competitive version of the roster, and ownership faced questions about how aggressively it was willing to invest.

Then something interesting happened. The Twins started winning enough games to make the postseason a realistic possibility. With the final month of the season approaching, Minnesota remains within striking distance of the American League playoff field. And that changes the conversation.

A playoff appearance wouldn't simply give the Twins a few extra games in October. It would change the expectations surrounding the organization entering the offseason.

The Twins Have Already Changed Their 2027 Expectations

There is a temptation to view 2027 as another year of development. That was reasonable earlier this season.

The Twins could have used 2026 to evaluate their young core, determine which prospects were ready to graduate and continue building toward a better team down the road. Even their trade deadline approach reflected that balance. Minnesota added A.J. Minter, Dean Kremer and Jeff Hoffman without surrendering its top prospect capital, preserving a farm system that remains one of the organization's biggest advantages.

But the Twins also spent money. More than $8 million in prorated salary was added for the remainder of 2026, while Hoffman and Kremer created financial commitments for 2027. Hoffman is owed $11 million next season, with the Blue Jays paying a portion of that amount, while Kremer is positioned for an arbitration raise after making $5.75 million this year.

That isn't the behavior of an organization preparing to spend another year simply waiting for its prospects to arrive. More importantly, Tom Pohlad has already made the organization's 2027 intentions clear.

“I’m not hoping -- it will be higher,” Pohlad said when discussing whether the Twins' payroll would increase next season. He added that if the organization wants to become a consistently competitive postseason team, it has to invest in the roster.

That statement came before the season was decided. If the Twins actually reach the playoffs, it becomes even more important.

A Playoff Berth Changes the Free-Agent Conversation

There is a big difference between telling free agents, "We think we're going to be good someday," and being able to say, "We just made the playoffs."

The Twins won't suddenly become a premier free-agent destination because they win a Wild Card Series. Minnesota will still deal with the realities of playing in a smaller market, and there will always be financial limitations compared to baseball's biggest spenders.

But a playoff appearance provides evidence. It gives Zoll something tangible to sell. It allows the front office to point to a young core that already competed against established clubs. It gives ownership an opportunity to argue that additional investment isn't about buying hope. It's about supporting a team that has already demonstrated it can win.

That should make the free-agent market more interesting for Minnesota. The Twins don't need to chase every expensive name on the market. They shouldn't. Their best opportunity may be using payroll flexibility to target specific weaknesses while allowing their young players to continue taking larger roles.

But there is a difference between making one or two modest additions and actually trying to build a roster capable of winning a postseason series. A playoff berth should push Minnesota toward the second option.

The Twins have spent years building organizational depth, and they're finally beginning to see some of that investment reach the major leagues. Walker Jenkins is the obvious example. Vahn Lackey is another important piece of the long-term picture. Kaelen Culpepper has already reached the majors, while Luke Keaschall is part of the organization's young core. There are still plenty of prospects behind them.

That creates an interesting problem for Zoll, and it's a good problem to have. The Twins don't need to buy an entirely new roster. They need to determine which positions require established major-league help around the young talent already in place. That's a much different offseason. A team that finishes outside the playoffs can rationalize another year of patience. A team that reaches October has a much harder time explaining why it shouldn't push the roster forward.

The prospects don't become less valuable because the Twins make the playoffs. In fact, they become even more valuable because Minnesota can use those players to fill some positions while spending money elsewhere. That could be the organization's sweet spot: Develop internally, spend externally where necessary and don't be afraid to move an asset if doing so clearly improves the major-league roster.

This might be the biggest consequence of all. The Pohlads have faced plenty of criticism about payroll since 2023. Some of it came from declining spending, while some stemmed from the perception that the organization wasn't willing to invest aggressively enough when opportunities presented themselves.

Tom Pohlad's comments about increasing the 2027 payroll are an important starting point, but fans will ultimately judge the organization by what happens when the offseason arrives. That's where a playoff appearance could matter. If Minnesota reaches October and then enters the offseason with essentially the same financial approach it has used in recent years, the questions will come quickly.

Why not add another starter? Why not improve the bullpen? Why not address the positions that have been obvious weaknesses? Why not take advantage of a young, relatively inexpensive core? A playoff team creates expectations. Once those expectations exist, it becomes much harder to sell patience for patience's sake.

What Happens If They Miss?

This is where things get complicated. Even if Minnesota misses the playoffs, the 2026 season could still be viewed as a success if the young core takes meaningful steps forward and the team proves it can compete. But missing the postseason after spending much of the year in the race would make the offseason decisions more nuanced.

The front office could reasonably argue that another year of development is necessary. The other argument would be that the team got close enough that a few targeted additions could have made the difference. If the Twins finish two games out, lose a handful of winnable games in September and watch the bullpen implode down the stretch, the offseason conversation will be very different than it would have been after a 65-win season.

Context matters. So does momentum. And the Twins are building both. That's why the final weeks of 2026 matter beyond the standings. Every win isn't just another step toward October. It's another piece of evidence that the Twins are ready for a different kind of offseason.

For the first time in several years, Minnesota may enter the winter with more than hope. It may enter with expectations.

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How will the team's offseason be impacted by making or missing the playoffs? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

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[Linus]

Completely disagree. It shouldn’t matter at all if they make or miss the playoffs - making it or not making it doesn’t change who they are as a team. They are in transition and if anything this silly pretending we are something more will just delay the progress that needs to be made. 

[bean5302]

Free agents sign where they get paid.

[dberthia]

Does it really matter if they miraculously make the payoffs and get swept in the first round? That seems like the best case scenario, and not much better than just missing the playoffs.

[Cory Engelhardt]

I don't know if making the playoffs in 2026 should matter for 2027 ongoing.

Missing or making the playoffs shouldn't change the fact that they should look at extensions for a number of guys on the team. And making the playoffs or not shouldn't change that they should attempt to improve the team between this offseason and opening day.

Making the playoffs would be fun though

[HarmonK03]

This is where they need a real baseball executive to present a plan to Pohlad and show where money can be spent reasonably rather than just spend money for the sake of it and helps sell the plan to the fans.  If Pohlad is that set on spending money just to say he is willing, then there is nothing we can do.  But I have to believe he would listen to an experienced executive.

If they really want to spend, do an overpay for Jeffers, that is our biggest hole for next year.  We have no lead catcher for next year and will have to spend money for one otherwise. Caratini and Jackson is not a sensible plan at catcher for a whole season.

[Nashvilletwin]

Hilarious.

Just like we let two miraculous wins change our trade deadline plan, we are going to yet be deluded again by finishing the year under 0.500 and missing or just making the playoffs.

So 2027 will be more of the same?  Keep our best prospects down on the farm?   Sign a few middling FAs?  Let Ryan, Lopez and eventually Buxton leave with no return - just like Jeffers (although, to be fair, we just might as well hang on to those three because we’ve blown the chance to get any real value for them)? Pretend we are trying to compete and score a few PR points for the owner along the way?

When will we ever learn that we have to build for a true open window based primarily on developing our own talent and overall affordability if we ever want to truly compete for a championship?  More of the same is simply delusion or short term calculated commercial reasoning.

[SE23]

6 minutes ago, HarmonK03 said:

This is where they need a real baseball executive to present a plan to Pohlad and show where money can be spent reasonably rather than just spend money for the sake of it and helps sell the plan to the fans.  If Pohlad is that set on spending money just to say he is willing, then there is nothing we can do.  But I have to believe he would listen to an experienced executive.

If they really want to spend, do an overpay for Jeffers, that is our biggest hole for next year.  We have no lead catcher for next year and will have to spend money for one otherwise. Caratini and Jackson is not a sensible plan at catcher for a whole season.

Wondering what guys here are thinking about FA signings for 2027? What positions can be upgraded without breaking the bank? Which free agents make sense? I'd love to get Arraez back and give him 2B and the leadoff slot. 😁

[HarmonK03]

1 minute ago, SE23 said:

Wondering what guys here are thinking about FA signings for 2027? What positions can be upgraded without breaking the bank? Which free agents make sense? I'd love to get Arraez back and give him 2B and the leadoff slot. 😁

They first have to decide, do they want to be an athletic team who plays defense or more clogging of the base paths.  I know Arraez's defense has improved.  But rather than just sign a guy because he is a free agent, what type of players are they targeting and does he fill a hole or is the player worth it to fit in.  The Donaldson signing felt like it was like Falvey wanted to make a splash so he signed Donaldson.  Correa to a lesser degree was the same. 

[Blyleven2011]

I agree with the person that said we need a top executive that can emphasize to the Pohlads that we need a better plan ( a team identity we are lacking ) …

We had great pitching for a few years , now with injuries and that 2025 purge of bullpen the pitching isn’t acceptable, offense was terrible the past couple of years but has improved some this season but still inconsistent , defense has been inconsistent but improved as the year went along  …

we want to be winners , build a team of professional players , other teams have young players that are proving they belong in the MLB  , our players look better under Shelton’s tenure but still have some mental lapses on defense and offense …

[SE23]

54 minutes ago, HarmonK03 said:

They first have to decide, do they want to be an athletic team who plays defense or more clogging of the base paths.  I know Arraez's defense has improved.  But rather than just sign a guy because he is a free agent, what type of players are they targeting and does he fill a hole or is the player worth it to fit in.  The Donaldson signing felt like it was like Falvey wanted to make a splash so he signed Donaldson.  Correa to a lesser degree was the same. 

I'd have Jenkins, Buck, Erod and Luke K in the outfield (Roden, Mendez and Martin in St Paul), keep Jeffers, Yandy Diaz at 1B/DH, Arraez at 2B, Houston at SS and Culpepper at 3B. A reasonably athletic group!

[Permanent Twins Fan]

Last time they made the playoffs, they rightsized the business and cut 30 million in payroll. I'm not sure if I want the Twins to make the playoffs.😀

[DJL44]

There will be more money to spend. Both the MLB and player proposals increase revenue sharing. The Twins are a revenue sharing recipient.

[HarmonK03]

13 minutes ago, SE23 said:

I'd have Jenkins, Buck, Erod and Luke K in the outfield (Roden, Mendez and Martin in St Paul), keep Jeffers, Yandy Diaz at 1B/DH, Arraez at 2B, Houston at SS and Culpepper at 3B. A reasonably athletic group!

Diaz has not played an inning in the field this year, so I am not sure he is not becoming a DH only type now.  But I will admit, I think Lewis should be the first baseman next year.  Diaz would be an upgrade over Bell as DH only and that I would not totally be opposed to.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

1 hour ago, SE23 said:

Wondering what guys here are thinking about FA signings for 2027? What positions can be upgraded without breaking the bank? Which free agents make sense? I'd love to get Arraez back and give him 2B and the leadoff slot. 😁

The Twins already have a Luis Arraez

[SE23]

5 minutes ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

The Twins already have a Luis Arraez

But there's only one Luis!

 

 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Just now, SE23 said:

But there's only one Luis!

 

 

He is a fun guy to watch!

[TheLeviathan]

I think teams under .500 shouldn't plan on another year where being that bad keeps you in contention.

If this team wants to build on this year it will need to do quite a bit to accomplish that.  Then we find out how much the Pohlad rhetoric is legit.  This half-measure deadline, if done this offseason, isn't going to move the needle.

[Czelgert]

The Twins are in the race because the American League is historically bad this year.  If they had the same record last year they’d be 10 games out of the race.  I like the Twins but we need perspective and if they miss the playoffs in a historically bad AL then they should look in the mirror and realize that they failed organizationally to give 100% from Opening Day.  You don’t get to take half a season to build a bullpen without paying a price.  

[SE23]

2 minutes ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

He is a fun guy to watch!

One of my all time favorites! He brings back distant memories of Rod Carew and Tony Gwinn, among other freakish bat-to-ball guys.

[Hunter4848]

2 hours ago, HarmonK03 said:

This is where they need a real baseball executive to present a plan to Pohlad and show where money can be spent reasonably rather than just spend money for the sake of it and helps sell the plan to the fans.  If Pohlad is that set on spending money just to say he is willing, then there is nothing we can do.  But I have to believe he would listen to an experienced executive.

If they really want to spend, do an overpay for Jeffers, that is our biggest hole for next year.  We have no lead catcher for next year and will have to spend money for one otherwise. Caratini and Jackson is not a sensible plan at catcher for a whole season.

No thanks on overpaying for an aging catcher

[jkcarew]

Half measures on top of half measures is the blueprint for remaining totally irrelevant…which is what this club is, and has been for a while now, regardless of whether they sneak into the 2026 AL postseason.

[Andy MacPhail]

Independent what happens; IMO, FA isn't the answer. We need to develop our own. There is a youth movement & we need to fan that flame. There will be needs but we have players who we could & should traded to fill them.

[90stwinskid]

3 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I don't know if making the playoffs in 2026 should matter for 2027 ongoing.

Missing or making the playoffs shouldn't change the fact that they should look at extensions for a number of guys on the team. And making the playoffs or not shouldn't change that they should attempt to improve the team between this offseason and opening day.

Making the playoffs would be fun though

Agreed. I think that to some extent, this team has already shown that there are pieces that belong on a playoff-caliber roster, but not enough pieces to make a core - yet.  

I'm no GM or baseball executive, but I feel like they already have a lot of data/information around whom (or what player types) they might want to extend internally or target in FA, regardless of whether we make the postseason.

We'll see how it all shakes out this offseason! (Lockout notwithstanding...)

[thelanges5]

Playoffs would be cool and great for the team. They aren’t going to make it. The offense has been bad since the ASG and the rotation is on fumes. 

[chpettit19]

"Then something interesting happened. The Twins started winning enough games to make the postseason a realistic possibility."

I'm sorry, but this should say "The Twins started losing few enough games in an historically bad league to make the postseason a realistic possibility." This team has been on the exact pace nearly everyone thought they'd be on for nearly the entire year. Mid-70s in wins. The league only having 5 teams above .500 in August does not mean this team has been good. They haven't. They are what we thought they were. The rest of the league just sucks, too. 

They should absolutely be trying to make the postseason at this point, but pretending like they're forcing the postseason possibility by winning a bunch of games is nonsense. 1 team is going to back into the AL playoffs. I hope its the Twins. But whoever it is sure isn't earning their way there. Unless somebody flips a switch like the Red Sox did. 

[Peter]

First off there will be baseball in 2027-cap and floor are going to happen. Enough of the Facebook negativity toxic 🤮💩 not twins fault American League is down. 3rd wild card is great!!! Give twins a chance to make playoffs which they will as I think not only that but will win division!!! Rest of games are must must must watch!!! Football can wait until World Series is over with!!  We need to go all in supporting our twins!!! 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

9 hours ago, Andy MacPhail said:

Independent what happens; IMO, FA isn't the answer. We need to develop our own. There is a youth movement & we need to fan that flame. There will be needs but we have players who we could & should traded to fill them.

Free agency isn’t THE answer, development isn’t THE answer, trades aren’t THE answer. A good team uses all three acquisition tools to assemble a team. The payroll budget needs to be high enough that the GM can use all three tools to be competitive. A mid-range budget (20th to 15th ranked payrolls in baseball were $150m to $175m roughly) gives the gm the free agency tool that can acquire good free agents and trade prospects for veterans already on a contract.

The league quality as a whole is volatile and really hard to predict.

the prediction models nailed the Twins record, but I never saw a preseason prediction with a below .500 team making the post season.

i think the lesson learned from this season is that a scorched earth rebuild is never a good strategy. Sure, we could have learned that from Pittsburgh and Colorado and their decades of futility, but Falvey and The Pohlads did their budget slashing veteran trading do nothing offseason waffling in indecision and lost a golden opportunity to be an actually good team in a season of really bad teams.

so they should invest in this team for 2027, not because they might make the post season in 2026, but because you never know the competitive landscape for 2027 and beyond, and you miss 100% of the shots you don’t take

[bean5302]

2 hours ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Free agency isn’t THE answer, development isn’t THE answer, trades aren’t THE answer. A good team uses all three acquisition tools to assemble a team. The payroll budget needs to be high enough that the GM can use all three tools to be competitive. A mid-range budget (20th to 15th ranked payrolls in baseball were $150m to $175m roughly) gives the gm the free agency tool that can acquire good free agents and trade prospects for veterans already on a contract.

The league quality as a whole is volatile and really hard to predict.

the prediction models nailed the Twins record, but I never saw a preseason prediction with a below .500 team making the post season.

i think the lesson learned from this season is that a scorched earth rebuild is never a good strategy. Sure, we could have learned that from Pittsburgh and Colorado and their decades of futility, but Falvey and The Pohlads did their budget slashing veteran trading do nothing offseason waffling in indecision and lost a golden opportunity to be an actually good team in a season of really bad teams.

so they should invest in this team for 2027, not because they might make the post season in 2026, but because you never know the competitive landscape for 2027 and beyond, and you miss 100% of the shots you don’t take

If the Twins had moved Buxton, Lopez, Ryan and Jeffers on top of the bullpen trades, that's what a true rebuild looks like. It's totally a valid strategy to maximize value.

[LastOnePicked]

The Twins have an uncanny ability to steer their ship straight into worse case scenarios. And they're headed there again. The Twins are not going to make the playoffs this year. They should remember that this was a historically weak AL Wildcard race and take this as a sign that "going for it" was unwise. They should look to revamp their development and training philosophy and prepare for an uncertain 2027 in which you seek to rehabilitate and trade Ryan and Lopez as soon as possible and let the youngsters play. Find out what you have.

Instead, Tom Pohlad will take a victory lap, claim the team was playing "meaningful games" in September, and just bring it all back with very few, if any, additions. Expect to hear:

"We expect Buxton to return to his first-half 2026 form."

"We know that Pablo Lopez and Joe Ryan are one of the best 1-2 starters in any rotation."

"We really feel our trade deadline additions are ready to anchor the bullpen."

"We have top prospects waiting in the wings to contribute."

None of this will happen. Buxton will never be healthier than he was last year. Lopez will certainly struggle in the first half and Ryan will certainly fall apart in the second half. Hoffman has clearly lost his edge. And the Twins will certainly sign a few fringe veterans that end up blocking prospects.

If baseball is played in 2027, the Twins won't be terrible. But they certainly won't win anything. And because they whiffed on making necessary trades last offseason, they'll be even further from building an elite rotation.

Until there's an actual long-term plan to win here, there will only be failure. Again and again and again.