Examining the Deadline Pivot From Bryan Abreu to Jeff Hoffman

[Nick Nelson]

Image courtesy of Troy Taormina, Kevin Sousa-Imagn Images

The Twins came into this trade deadline with one clear mandate: add a high-caliber righty reliever to the back end of their bullpen. Yes, they made other additions to bolster the depth of their staff in A.J. Minter and Dean Kremer, but the big prize was always going to be a premier arm that could slot into the late innings alongside — or ahead of — Yoendrys Gómez and Andrew Morris.

They thought they had their guy in Bryan Abreu of the Astros. Unsubstantiated rumors later turned into confirmed reports that Minnesota and Houston had a deal in place sending over Trevor Larnach in exchange for Abreu, only to have it nixed by Astros owner Jim Crane in the final stages. So the Twins evidently pivoted, turning their attention toward pushing talks across the finish line for Blue Jays reliever Jeff Hoffman.

At the end of the day, the sum result is fairly similar in terms of player acquired. The Twins landed a veteran reliever with dominant stuff, an excellent track record, and plenty of experience pitching in big situations. Either one would have done the trick. Since 2023, Hoffman ranks 15th among MLB relievers in fWAR with a 3.22 ERA and 3.21 FIP; Abreu ranks 17th with a 2.72 ERA and 3.31 FIP. Both have seen their stock drop a little this year — Abreu more so, as he's run into walk and home run troubles — but both have also quelled any performance concerns with strong recent runs.

 

All other things being equal, you'd probably lean toward Hoffman, mainly because he has an additional year of control extending into 2027. But it's close. Either one would have satisfied the biggest need Minnesota's front office sought to address. The difference is in the diverging paths required to get there, and implications for the organization going forward.

It's pretty rare that we get the tea on a trade that fell through in the manner we did with this Abreu effort, but since it's out there, we can weigh its merits alongside the deal that actually ended up getting done. 

Larnach has one remaining year of control and is likely on the verge of exiting the Twins' plans in a crowded outfield mix. He's creating a bit of a logjam as upcoming players like Walker Jenkins vie for opportunities, but Larnach has also been one of the team's most important players to up to this point, ranking second among Twins position players in fWAR. 

Trading him would embody the idea of threading a needle between buying and selling. You run the risk of somewaht weakening an offensive unit that already shows signs of regression, but at the same time, you address your top priority without sacrificing any real future value.

With their pivot to Hoffman, the Twins steered much harder into a traditional "buy" posture. They kept Larnach, along with everyone else on the big-league roster, but at real future expense. The headliner of a three-player package sent to Toronto is Dasan Hill, who was arguably the best pitching prospect in the organization and one of the higher-upside lefties to ever come through this system.

Twins Daily named Hill the Twins' minor-league starting pitcher of the year in 2025, and had him ranked as Minnesota's #6 prospect entering this season, behind only the now-graduated Connor Prielipp among pitchers. We described the former second-rounder as "Oozing top-of-rotation potential after fanning 83 over 62 IP in first season out of HS." 

Though his own stock has ticked down a bit this year amid major control issues, Hill's upside remains undeniable. He was at #9 on our prospect tracker before the trade, still top 10 and one of just four pitchers among the top 15. That's a real loss, but one that might not be fully felt at the moment because he's 20, unrefined, and still years away from MLB readiness. It's the kind of move an all-in contender makes without blinking.

 

For the Twins, who are straddling the line between contending and rebuilding, it's far from a no-brainer. Trading Larnach for Abreu would have carried minimal future implications, good or bad. Abreu, an impending free agent, wasn't going to be here next year and Larnach probably won't either. The pivot to Hill-for-Hoffman is a much more consequential decision. Hoffman is under contract next year, which does add more value but also entails its own level of risk: a 34-year-old relief pitcher making $8 million (even with Toronto paying down part of his salary) is hardly some surefire proposition. In fact it runs counter to the general philosophy of a Twins team that has rarely dedicated that kind of payroll to any single reliever.

By changing course in their pursuit of a legit late-inning arm, even if not necessarily by their own volition, the Twins radically altered the risk/reward stakes of their biggest deadline move. Whether they ultimately chose this path or simply adapted to the one left available, the failed Abreu deal may prove every bit as significant as the Hoffman trade itself. 

If Hoffman helps anchor a playoff push over the next two seasons, surrendering Dasan Hill should be an easy price to justify. But if Hill develops into the frontline starter his talent suggests is possible, this deadline won't be remembered for the reliever Minnesota acquired, but for for the prospect they had to give up after their first plan fell apart.

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[TCanWins]

As a new Twins fan, from what I've read it feels like this move was more to try to make amends for last year's sell, if anything. Curry favour with the fans. Buy back some support. Put the money where their mouths are.

Do the FO really believe that the Twins were going to have a genuine crack at a World Series win this year, being 20+ in power rankings? Or did they just want to show the fans that in future years, they are going to commit to whatever it takes to make this team succeed? A gesture of goodwill? 

As a fan, I want the people making decisions to have genuine confidence in the team (hopefully well placed), and to want to stick to a plan and see it out. They have a strong farm and a solid team when they're playing well. Keep adding and don't rebuild until we have a genuine crack at the title, let's go!

[Patzky]

Hindsight is so wonderful. David Arias, we barely knew ya! After two games, hindsight says hitting was the more immediate need than pitching.

[nicksaviking]

The Twins should definitely look to trade Larnach this winter, but I don't get why HE specifically is the logjam. Bell, Gray and Kreidler are also not long term pieces and unlike Larnach, are not hitting well. You could easily add Martin and Roden to that list as well.

[mike8791]

I, for one, was very relieved the Astro deal fell through.  In a perceptive article a few weeks ago, you noted that an offensive regression was a major threat to Twins staying in contention this year.  You were spot on!  The Twins offense has tanked.  So why would trading Larnach, arguably one of the two best hitters in the lineup, helped?  

As you noted, Abreu and Hoffman are pretty similar, at least in their 2026 performance.  The Twins kept Larnach and got a solid late inning reliever.  That was a win-win.  TP repeatedly said the Twins would be buyers, not sellers.  Giving up Hill to help the team win now was the right move, at least for this year and next.  Theoretically our rotation should be a strength next year, assuming Lopez and Abel are healthy.  No one expected the team to be in contention this year so their performance is a pleasant surprise, but it's been clear to most of us that this team has too many holes to make the playoffs.  Improving the pen was a nice start, but for Tom to be taken seriously, he and Zoll must commit in the offseason to bolster the lineup both in FA and in promoting the right prospects.  That will be the real test in ownership's commitment to fielding a real contender.

[TheLeviathan]

18 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

The Twins should definitely look to trade Larnach this winter, but I don't get why HE specifically is the logjam. Bell, Gray and Kreidler are also not long term pieces and unlike Larnach, are not hitting well. You could easily add Martin and Roden to that list as well.

For me the issue is that I think this was the sell high moment on Larnach.  He's a corner guy with limited power and bad defense.  This was the time to cash that chip.

But you're right, he represents an ongoing problem we have of a 26 and 40 man roster bloated with low flexibility or low upside or both type of guys.

[IndianaTwin]

Trading your "best pitching prospect" doesn't seem as bad when you consider that guys like Matthews, Prielipp and Rojas, even Festa and Abel are not "prospects" by virtue of being a few innings or service days past the rookie definition.   

[terrydactyls]

I read at mlb.com that the Hoffman trade also included Toronto received "international bonus pool space".  What does this mean?

[nicksaviking]

28 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

For me the issue is that I think this was the sell high moment on Larnach.  He's a corner guy with limited power and bad defense.  This was the time to cash that chip.

But you're right, he represents an ongoing problem we have of a 26 and 40 man roster bloated with low flexibility or low upside or both type of guys.

Yeah, I am/was on board with selling high. But if 'high' is a rental reliever, pass. 

[TopGunn#22]

While I don't completely agree with Mike8791 I "Loved" his comment because it's well written and there was much to be in agreement with.  

My only disagreement was that I WAS disappointed the Abreu for Larnach trade fell through.  I give the FO credit for pivoting to Hoffman but as a guy who has been a big Dasan Hill fan (his command and control issues this season aside) I was sorry to see a young LHP with his "potential" sent away.  Kudos to Toronto for taking a chance on him. 

I still think (rightly or wrongly) that despite the obvious problems on offense and trading a solid producer this year in Larnach, that the promotion of Jenkins and Culpepper would jump start the moribund offense. 

I'll admit, it's risky to depend on rookies, but we all know the glaring holes this current roster has.  For the Twins to make the playoffs this season, it was always going to come down to a rookie or two (Jenkins and Culpepper) to come in and provide a spark down the stretch.  This is even more true with the current status of Byron Buxton.  We're seeing just how much this offense struggles without him.  He's the team MVP by far.  I don't think trading Larnach and Jeffers would have affected this offense nearly as much as losing Buxton for any length of time.

The other great point the op made was that the Twins were guaranteed having Hoffman next season.  Abreu would have been a FA.  But if Abreu had come in a trade for Larnach and had a great run with the Twins then it would have put tremendous pressure on Pohlad and Zoll to sign him this off season.  And I'm not sure they would have done it. 

Bottom line:  We gave up a young LHP with tremendous potential to finally acquire a true Closer following last years "Red Wedding-esque" bullpen decapitation.  I'm on board with the end result even while having trepidation over sending Hill out to accomplish this badly needed move.   

[Riverbrian]

50 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

For me the issue is that I think this was the sell high moment on Larnach.  He's a corner guy with limited power and bad defense.  This was the time to cash that chip.

But you're right, he represents an ongoing problem we have of a 26 and 40 man roster bloated with low flexibility or low upside or both type of guys.

I was a staunch defender of Larnach this off-season. Mainly because the comments made about him were unfair but also because he was one of a few professional hitters returning from 2025, I didn't feel his trade value was as high as it could be. 

At this trade deadline... I think I agree with you. I think his trade value has risen and it may have reached his apex. He won't be as valuable in the off-season when his Arb number doubles.

He's been really really good this season with the bat. His trade value in my opinion has risen to at least to the point where his trade brought back some significance.  

However... this team is in contention and if other teams are willing to acquire Larnach to help them in the stretch run. He would also help us in the stretch run. That becomes a quandary. 

 

[TheLeviathan]

37 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Yeah, I am/was on board with selling high. But if 'high' is a rental reliever, pass. 

Agreed, Abreu wouldn't have been the type of target I'd have had for that deal.

[TheLeviathan]

10 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

I was a staunch defender of Larnach this off-season. Mainly because the comments made about him were unfair but also because he was one of a few professional hitters returning from 2025, I didn't feel his trade value was as high as it could be. 

At this trade deadline... I think I agree with you. I think his trade value has risen and it may have reached his apex. He won't be as valuable in the off-season when his Arb number doubles.

He's been really really good this season with the bat. His trade value in my opinion has risen to at least to the point where his trade brought back some significance.  

However... this team is in contention and if other teams are willing to acquire Larnach to help them in the stretch run. He would also help us in the stretch run. That becomes a quandary. 

 

Well, in my case, I'd have used the stretch run to answer some questions about players in AAA or in their mid 20s that we need more information on for future decision making rather than pretending this team is a contender.  So dealing him wouldn't have been an issue for me.

[LastOnePicked]

2 hours ago, TCanWins said:

As a new Twins fan, from what I've read it feels like this move was more to try to make amends for last year's sell, if anything. Curry favour with the fans. Buy back some support. Put the money where their mouths are.

Welcome! I hope this team's brightest days are ahead.

But I don't want an owner to curry my favor. I simply want my team to win a World Series title. These deadline trades didn't really move the needle for this year, and they may make it harder to win in the years ahead.

Winning will rebuild support. Nothing less than that will do the trick.

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

The Twins should definitely look to trade Larnach this winter, but I don't get why HE specifically is the logjam. Bell, Gray and Kreidler are also not long term pieces and unlike Larnach, are not hitting well. You could easily add Martin and Roden to that list as well.

Larnach is good so a team might trade for him and the rest are DFA candidates?

[bean5302]

The Astros weren't sellers and seeing two buyers come together in a swap of MLB players is relatively uncommon. A buyer trading MLB players to a seller doesn't make sense so Larnach's market was going to be limited to prospects. Essentially, Larnach to the Astros for an Astros prospect, then the Astros prospect to another buyer for a relief pitcher. That or a 3 team trade.

It feels like Zoll is just incompetent to me.

[nicksaviking]

16 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

I was a staunch defender of Larnach this off-season. Mainly because the comments made about him were unfair but also because he was one of a few professional hitters returning from 2025, I didn't feel his trade value was as high as it could be. 

At this trade deadline... I think I agree with you. I think his trade value has risen and it may have reached his apex. He won't be as valuable in the off-season when his Arb number doubles.

He's been really really good this season with the bat. His trade value in my opinion has risen to at least to the point where his trade brought back some significance.  

However... this team is in contention and if other teams are willing to acquire Larnach to help them in the stretch run. He would also help us in the stretch run. That becomes a quandary. 

 

I don't think you were wrong about Larnach, but I don't think the opposite side was wrong either. I don't think anyone argued that Larnach was bad, just that this kind of player is redundant and other clubs aren't interested.

Larnach is a decent player but at the same time, he also clearly has next to no trade value. A rental reliever? and the OTHER owner pulled the plug? 

[nicksaviking]

7 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Larnach is good so a team might trade for him and the rest are DFA candidates?

Then the logjam is the non-good players. And they can start DFA'ing them any time now as far as I'm concerned.

[jmlease1]

2 hours ago, TCanWins said:

Do the FO really believe that the Twins were going to have a genuine crack at a World Series win this year, being 20+ in power rankings? Or did they just want to show the fans that in future years, they are going to commit to whatever it takes to make this team succeed? A gesture of goodwill? 

I don't think the Twins management sees it in such stark terms. I suspect they value making the playoffs and don't have a World Series or Bust mentality, and I can understand that. If you have to presume that you're a top 5 in the "power rankings" to have a legit shot at winning the WS, then that's going to be a tough hurdle for a team without the ability to buy itself out of any mistake or solve any problem by throwing cash at it.

As I've discussed elsewhere, with the short series aspect to the playoffs, even with expanded rounds making it more advantageous to higher payroll teams, baseball post-season has a higher level of randomness than say the NBA. (no one seeded lower than 3 has won a title in the last decade; in MLB you've had 2 Wild Card teams take a WS as well as an Atlanta team which won a weak division and had the 5th best record in the NL) There's a fair argument that just getting into the playoffs gives you a shot. All you need is a chip, a chair, and a chance because who knows? Joe Ryan & Taj Bradley both getting on a roll in the playoffs could win you multiple series almost by themselves (seems unlikely now with Ryan's dead arm or whatever issues...but dude was a deserving all-star).

So I think they wanted to show something to the fans. They wanted to show something to the players. And they simply want to make the playoffs if they can do it without wrecking their chances to stay competitive. I don't mind that; I'd rather my baseball team take as many reasonable shots to stay competitive as possible. They've disincentivized tanking anyways, and considering how easy it is for prospects to never be more than suspects, it not sure bet that stinking for several consecutive years to try and stockpile talent will work anyways.

Now, I still think they need to actually play their rookies/prospect more and see what they have rather than give innings to the Tristan Grays of the world and shouldn't carry 3 catchers even if it means losing Jackson...but that's a different issue.

[Riverbrian]

41 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

Well, in my case, I'd have used the stretch run to answer some questions about players in AAA or in their mid 20s that we need more information on for future decision making rather than pretending this team is a contender.  So dealing him wouldn't have been an issue for me.

Yeah that's the thing with these type of discussions. Everyone comes from different places. 

Some want to see Jenkins up because they think it will make the team better. Some want to see Jenkins up because they want to get ready for 2027 because 2026 doesn't matter to them. 

Some wanted to trade Larnach because he hurts the teams chances in 2026 and some want to trade Larnach to clear the deck for 2027. 

To me contention is contention and I realize that others disagree with that. 

 

[David Maro]

When Buxton went on the IL they could have brought Jenkins up but didn't. Why is that,maybe they know something that we don't. If fans want to see Jenkins or Culpepper play they do play just a few miles from Target field.

The way I see next years roster it will look a lot different because this roster is full of multiple position players. As a player you need to know what position is yours to play,not what glove you need. 

If there is such a logjam in the OF why didn't they move someone like Wallner. He is another one who could have been up to replace Buxton but they chose not to.

 

[TopGunn#22]

From my point of view, when the owner stepped in and nixed the Larnach for Abreu deal, the Twins FO should have been smart enough to pivot to Spencer Arrighetti, a 26 year old RH SP with upside potential.  I would have still made the deal for Hoffman, but Arrighetti would have provided a similar arm to Matthews and he is still pre-arb controlable.

The Blue Jays swooped in and traded Dalton Varsho straight up for Arrighetti.  Varsho is a far better Glove than Larnach, but Larnach would have been the far superior Bat.  And the Astros needed a BAT more than they needed a Glove.  

The Twins could have added both Kremer and Arrighetti as well as Hoffman and decided to put Zebby Matthews in the bullpen.  Hoffman, Gomez, Minter, Morris, Funderburk and Zebby (with Nance and minus Taylor and/or Adams) would have been a massive upgrade.  (they still DID massively upgrade the BP).

A callup of Jenkins to replace Larnach and Culpepper replacing a DFA's Gray would have followed.  That, to me, would have been a better trade deadline.  

 

[Riverbrian]

37 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I don't think you were wrong about Larnach, but I don't think the opposite side was wrong either. I don't think anyone argued that Larnach was bad, just that this kind of player is redundant and other clubs aren't interested.

Larnach is a decent player but at the same time, he also clearly has next to no trade value. A rental reliever? and the OTHER owner pulled the plug? 

My reaction to Larnach was largely because of his undeservedly being torn apart by way too many people.

I don't believe I was wrong and even with his well above average offensive numbers this season I'm not sure if I was necessarily right either but someone had to stand up for the guy. He didn't deserve the onslaught.

He was one of us and he was one of our few development success stories.  

My guess is that there would be other considerations other than owner pulled the plug.

Maybe the owner had concerns about the bullpen and didn't want to let Abreu go. Houston was kind of buying so they would be acquiring rentals not trading them. It's hard to tell with their trade deadline because Varsho was traded for an injured major league arm. 

It's just a guess though. I do believe that his trade value will certainly lower from this trade deadline to the off-season with his salary doubled and 1 year of control left. 

[TheLeviathan]

25 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Yeah that's the thing with these type of discussions. Everyone comes from different places. 

Some want to see Jenkins up because they think it will make the team better. Some want to see Jenkins up because they want to get ready for 2027 because 2026 doesn't matter to them. 

Some wanted to trade Larnach because he hurts the teams chances in 2026 and some want to trade Larnach to clear the deck for 2027. 

To me contention is contention and I realize that others disagree with that. 

 

Yeah, contention to me is winning your division or, I don't know, being above .500.

Call me old school but I don't think you can have a serious conversation about being a contender when you've spent less time above .500 than the Vikings have spent in pads this year.

[Riverbrian]

2 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

Yeah, contention to me is winning your division or, I don't know, being above .500.

Call me old school but I don't think you can have a serious conversation about being a contender when you've spent less time above .500 than the Vikings have spent in pads this year.

I believe that making the playoffs has value in itself but that aside... I've spent too much time watching what other teams are winning with to dismiss any roster. 

Besides... every team will win 54 games and every team will lose 54 games. It's the other 54 games that matter. 

Right now the Twins are 2-5 in the other 54 games but that's nothing that a good 15 game winning streak won't cure. 😉

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

I think our chances at the playoff this year are pretty slim.  

So this is the equation - is 1 year of Hoffman at $7 million and Larnach at $5-$6 million worth Dasan Hill.   Just straight up probably not but its not terribly far off.  Hoffman if he performs well next year could be traded at the deadline for someone pretty similar to Hill.  Larnach I have slotting in as the primary DH.  The team will definitely be better because of Hoffman and Larnach.    

[TheLeviathan]

1 minute ago, Riverbrian said:

I believe that making the playoffs has value in itself but that aside... I've spent too much time watching what other teams are winning with to dismiss any roster. 

Besides... every team will win 54 games and every team will lose 54 games. It's the other 54 games that matter. 

Right now the Twins are 2-5 in the other 54 games but that's nothing that a good 15 game winning streak won't cure. 😉

All transactions are bets on future outcomes.  Given that we largely get outscored and are staring a big, fat -36 run diff in the face.... I know where my money is, :)

[Riverbrian]

13 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

All transactions are bets on future outcomes.  Given that we largely get outscored and are staring a big, fat -36 run diff in the face.... I know where my money is, :)

I'm not betting my house on it either but I'm perfectly happy letting them surprise me. I've been surprised too many times to write off the possibility.  

 

[HarmonK03]

1 hour ago, David Maro said:

If there is such a logjam in the OF why didn't they move someone like Wallner. He is another one who could have been up to replace Buxton but they chose not to.

In sheer numbers they do have a logjam of outfielders.  There are 9 outfielders on the 40 man roster plus Keaschall.  And they have Rosario in St. Paul not on the 40 man roster.  Yes you need depth but if everyone is healthy there are not enough AB's to go around between Minneapolis and St. Paul.

This is where I don't think Zoll is up to the job, you can't have a quarter of your forty man roster be outfielders.  Even moving Wallner for a bucket of balls would have helped clear this a little bit.  But guys in St. Paul have to play or their development will stagnate.

[rationalfan]

3 hours ago, TCanWins said:

As a new Twins fan, from what I've read it feels like this move was more to try to make amends for last year's sell, if anything. Curry favour with the fans. Buy back some support. Put the money where their mouths are.

Do the FO really believe that the Twins were going to have a genuine crack at a World Series win this year, being 20+ in power rankings? Or did they just want to show the fans that in future years, they are going to commit to whatever it takes to make this team succeed? A gesture of goodwill? 

As a fan, I want the people making decisions to have genuine confidence in the team (hopefully well placed), and to want to stick to a plan and see it out. They have a strong farm and a solid team when they're playing well. Keep adding and don't rebuild until we have a genuine crack at the title, let's go!

Agreed...from a long time Twins fan and STH.  I don't think this is any proof of how things will operate after this year.  The Pohlads still own the team with one of the family as Chairman.  The mid-size market hasn't changed of course.  On the other side, the inevitable hit from the FSN/Bally/FanDuel/Diamond Sports bankruptcy and transition to the much lower revenue streaming rights has occurred.  Additional investors have come in to dilute the risk.  Whatever the CBA looks like for 2027 and beyond, it will be more favorable for small and mid market teams to compete.  

My hope is for what I could have sworn they vowed when Target Field was built...not committed to being a high payroll team or frequently pursuing big time free agents, but willing and able to maintain a talented team that is on the upswing for an extended competitive window.  They pulled in a lot of revenue in the mid-2010s with low payroll and they did increase notably in the late 2010's and early 2020's when the team was good, BUT...with all teams increasing shared revenue due to increases in national deals and more sharing of large market local revenue, everybody was spending more.  That means the Twins have merely gone from a bottom to below-average payroll team to below-average to average payroll team.  They never really spent the money they banked which makes me question if they really lost $400M here or if that's where the Pohlads assigned their debt.  If they did lose that much money then they really should sell because they are terrible at managing a baseball team in this era - it seems that St. Louis and Arizona can have more aggressive payrolls when warranted and still grow the value of the franchise and not claim the need for "right-sizing".  

The end of the this decade will interesting.