New Twins Prospects Vahn Lackey, Carson Tinney Mute Concerns Over Eduardo Tait’s Development

[Cody Schoenmann]

Image courtesy of © Steven Branscombe-Imagn Images

With their first two selections in the 2026 MLB Draft, the Minnesota Twins (led by assistant GM Sean Johnson) selected catchers Vahn Lackey (3rd overall) and Carson Tinney (43rd), fortifying the minor-league depth of a position group that had been the organization’s greatest area of future insecurity. The primary reason for team decision-makers' uncertainty about the position’s medium- and long-term health was that All-Star-caliber backstop Ryan Jeffers is almost guaranteed to depart the organization as a free agent this offseason. Veterans Victor Caratini and Alex Jackson are under team control for 2027 and could serve as a serviceable short-term tandem at the position, assuming Jeffers leaves. Still, Caratini and Jackson aren’t long-term candidates to anchor the position as Minnesota enters its next World Series-contending window.

Until the selection of Lackey and (to a much lesser extent) Tinney, the prospect much of Twins Territory was projecting to be Jeffers’s long-term successor at the position was Eduardo Tait, acquired alongside Mick Abel in the 2025 MLB trade deadline swap that sent Jhoan Duran to Philadelphia. Still appearing on many top-100 prospect lists, Tait boasts plus power and a strong arm behind the dish. However, he swings at almost everything, sporting a 40.8% out-of-zone swing rate. His extreme lack of plate discipline has resulted in a .216/.280/.420 (73 wRC+) line over 339 plate appearances. Tait is 19, and he does have exciting in-game power, with 15 home runs this season. Still, a sub-300 on-base percentage (OBP) at High-A is catastrophic, and he will need to make drastic, sustained changes to his plate discipline to advance to the high minors.

 

More than three years younger than the average High-A player, Tait will have plenty of time to make those developments, and Twins fans should remain optimistic about the 19-year-old’s long-term prospects. Still, it feels more likely that he'll reach the majors in 2029 than that it could happen by 2027. That being the case, the organization was in dire need of more developed, easier-to-project catching talent in the minors. Enter Lackey and (again, to a lesser extent) Tinney.

 

Selected third overall, Lackey instantly slots in as Minnesota’s catcher of the future, with a chance to make his major-league debut early next season. He was arguably the most refined prospect in the 2026 draft, and he could soon slot in above Walker Jenkins on Twins top prospect rankings. There arguably wasn’t a better fit between player and team in the draft than Lackey and Minnesota, and Twins Territory should reap the benefits of the pairing for seasons to come. Lackey immediately usurps Tait, though the way the Twins prefer to deploy their catchers, there's plenty of room for both to contribute.

 

Khadim Diaw and Enrique Jimenez were the organization's other top catching prospects alongside Tait before Lackey and Tinney were selected. Diaw’s bat will likely be what guides him to the majors, as the 22-year-old struggles to suppress base stealers, throwing out only six of the 109 runners who attempted to steal a base on him between High-A and Double-A. He's spent significant time in center field in Wichita, and projects to be an outfielder if he does reach the majors. Jimenez is a better defensive catcher than Diaw. However, given that he is only 20 and hitting .232/.400/.402 at High-A, it's nearly impossible to project his long-term viability as a major leaguer.

 

Right now, Tait is a better prospect than Tinney. However, Tinney sneaks in above Diaw and Jimenez on the organization’s depth chart at the position. Unlike Lackey, Tinney is a raw prospect, with a lot of swing-and-miss in his offensive profile and uncertainty about his ability to remain behind the plate as he progresses through the minors. Still, after sporting elite exit velocity and raw power at the University of Texas, the 21-year-old has a clearer path to the majors than Tait’s, Diaw’s, and Jimenez’s, even if he’s spending more time at designated hitter, first base, and the corner outfield than behind the plate.

 

Lackey is arguably the best catching prospect drafted in the 2020s, and Tinney could serve as the other half of the tandem. Minnesota has dramatically changed its long-term outlook at the position, making Tait’s, Diaw’s, and Jimenez’s shaky development feel less enormous.

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[DasBat]

I agree with pretty much all of this.  I'm not saying Tait is a lost cause, I just think he has a lot of work to do.  He's so young that he still has a chance.

[twinstalker]

Tait's got some real issues, but he's 19 at high A+, which is really good.  His isolated power is good.  His .244 BABIP is substantially lower than his history, which likely means the average is due to bad luck, and his numbers would be better.  His walk rate, never good, can possibly be attributed to always being young for his league.

The biggest problem is that he's unlikely to stay behind the plate, and then what do you do with him?  The Twins have a great excuse now to trade Tait, and I'd suggest they take advantage of it once he's back to hitting next year.

 

[rdehring]

Tait could become a perennial all-star, we just don't know.  And that's true for every 19 year-year old prospect. 

Lesson for Jeremy Zoll.  When trading an extremely valuable asset, don't take a big part of the return as an 18-year-old kid.

[Sampson5]

While yes Tait has things to figure out don't think twins taking catchers effects him at all he will still get chances in the mlb at some point still years ago kinda feels like he's went away from what he was doing well last year in the phillies organization also possible his development just gonna take a lot longer then expected some catchers take longer to figure it out . Adding multiple catchers allows the twins to stop trying to rush with thru the minors which imo is best . Still think the long-term planned duo behind the plate is lackey & Tait 

[Twinsrtheworst]

Twins fans should remain optimistic about the 19-year-old’s long-term prospects. Still, it feels more likely that he'll reach the majors in 2029 than that it could happen by 2027…………………………I have to say, If anybody thought at any point, that Tait had even an outside shot of being a MLB catcher at the age of 20 in 2027.. I’d have to question either the sanity or their baseball acumen. Those fans or writers fans expecting that kind of ascension threw the minors for a catcher to the majors, well I see why so many fans are left feeling disappointed in a player. Completely absurd expectations are being set. So I expect to read a lot of articles about how we should give up on Tait in the next 1-3 years. I am an eternal optimist, with some baseball knowledge. I’d never expect a catcher to be ready by age 20-21.  That’s just asking to be extremely disappointed. 

[mnfireman]

Tait becomes Rule 5 eligible in '27, at age 21. Lackey is already 21. No team will take Tait in the MLB portion but I would bet he will get picked in the MiLB portion, he will have to be added to the 40-man after next season, depending on the new labor agreement. 

[DJL44]

Tait and Tinney have the same flaws.

[jkcarew]

Who in their right mind was concerned about Tait? A ton of time still to improve offensively and behind the plate. 19 in high-A…and it hasn’t been like he’s overmatched. The power shows and the K’s not out of control, either. What were we expecting? We got him and Mick Abel for Jhoan Duran, not straight-up for Mariano Rivera.

[bean5302]

Tait drops out of the top 10 for sure for me. He's no where near Tinney IMHO.

Khadim Diaw isn't really a catcher, and Jimenez is a non-prospect.

Age doesn't matter after a couple years in a system. Prospects get to the big show (if they make it) in the following time frames.

Int'l/High school signings make it to the big show in 2-3 years at the top end, and 4-5 years at the back end.

College signings make it to the big show in 1-2 years at the top end, and 3-4 years at the back end.

There were high expectations for Tait coming into this season on he heels of a .251/.322/.436 wRC+ 107 with a 9.0% BB and 19.3% K rate at 18 years old, especially after the dramatic improvement in K rate vs. the year prior at the same level as only a 17 year old.

Unfortunately, Tait wasn't ready for Cedar Rapids. His line dropped to .216/.280/.420 wRC+ 73 line with a 7.4% BB rate and a 25.4% K rate. The power is real, but he's going nowhere if he can't make a major change to his plate approach. Tait's contact is abysmal with a near 50% pop-up rate on fly balls and he's fanning 16% of the time vs. low minors pitching. He's also not catching the more savvy base runners at High-A which is a disappointing.

Tait is very inexperienced at this level, and he's facing much better talent than in Ft Myers. There are plenty of examples of younger players who have good pitch recognition, but need to learn to take what they're given at the plate rather than thinking they're going to be successful forcing results against ever more talented opponents. Here's hoping Tait is just hyper aggressive, and not incapable of pitch identification.

[bean5302]

14 minutes ago, jkcarew said:

Who in their right mind was concerned about Tait? A ton of time still to improve offensively and behind the plate. 19 in high-A…and it hasn’t been like he’s overmatched. The power shows and the K’s not out of control, either. What were we expecting? We got him and Mick Abel for Jhoan Duran, not straight-up for Mariano Rivera.

50% pop ups, 16% whiff, 30% K rate. wRC+ 73. He's over-matched in terms of results.

[LyleCole]

18 minutes ago, jkcarew said:

Who in their right mind was concerned about Tait? A ton of time still to improve offensively and behind the plate. 19 in high-A…and it hasn’t been like he’s overmatched. The power shows and the K’s not out of control, either. What were we expecting? We got him and Mick Abel for Jhoan Duran, not straight-up for Mariano Rivera.

Exactly.  If you total his performance at Cedar Rapids A+ as an 18 and 19 year old (2025 and 2026) you get a kid who has hit 27 doubles and 18 home runs in 425 ABs.   His batting average and OBP lag, .226 and .282 respectively but a young player's bat to ball skill is the lagging indicator.  The power is there and he is certainly a player to be developed.  

He has only played 2 games at first base in his entire minor league career, 14 total innings.  I think the Twins should look to try to get him 20 or so games at 1B each of the following seasons to create some positional diversity.

[jkcarew]

2 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

50% pop ups, 16% whiff, 30% K rate. wRC+ 73. He's over-matched in terms of results.

30% K rate is overmatched? What would you call Quentin Young then,…6 months younger than Tait and in low-A ball? I’m guessing you wouldn’t have him in your top 20?

[bean5302]

18 minutes ago, jkcarew said:

30% K rate is overmatched? What would you call Quentin Young then,…6 months younger than Tait and in low-A ball? I’m guessing you wouldn’t have him in your top 20?

Oh, is that what you took from my comment? The K rate alone? Tait's performance is nearly universally bad. He's overmatched.

Quentin Young? I call him a non-prospect, close the book, he's done. Release him tomorrow if you like. he's Keoni Cavaco with more power. A complete flop.

 

[jkcarew]

3 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Oh, is that what you took from my comment? The K rate alone? Tait's performance is nearly universally bad. He's overmatched.

Quentin Young? I call him a non-prospect, close the book, he's done. Release him tomorrow if you like. he's Keoni Cavaco with more power. A complete flop.

 

The odds are against both regardless, since they have so far to go. But I think your chances of being wrong on Tait are still significant.

[Dman]

It's looking pretty brutal for Tait IMO.  I get that he is young, but if he can't control the zone he is going nowhere.  Free swingers always look good early, but once they are found out why even throw them strikes?  They will swing away at anything remotely close.  He's got time to figure it out, but things don't look good right now.

I have some hope for Tinney mainly because he does walk a good amount.  Still it's a long road when you can't hit any breaking stuff.  The power is very real. he could start out hot at the lower levels, but I'd bet he stalls by AA.

I don't know if anyone has watched Jimenez, but that's a big boy.  Not sure the athleticism will be there but we'll see.

Hopefully Lackey stays healthy and moves quickly as he looks like about the only thing they've got that seems legit for the position.  Tinney might get there since he has a big arm and power bat, but the rest really look like long shots to me.  Things can change with development, but Tait and Jimenez look like it's gonna take time if they even get there.  Daiw isn't really a catcher. Olivar isn't a MLB catcher. Cardenas might be a backup catcher, but nothing to get too excited about. So Lackey was needed in a bad way.

[Danchat]

1 hour ago, mnfireman said:

Tait becomes Rule 5 eligible in '27, at age 21. Lackey is already 21. No team will take Tait in the MLB portion but I would bet he will get picked in the MiLB portion, he will have to be added to the 40-man after next season, depending on the new labor agreement. 

They're still likely going to protect him at that point, even if he isn't ready to play in 2028. They protected Emmanuel Rodriguez when he was turning 21 and hadn't jumped up to AA yet.

Yeah, Tait being such a long ways away was why I wasn't a big fan of the Duran trade. I underestimated Abel, but Tait was 18 at the time of the trade and he's so far away from playing, all of the rankings putting him up so high aren't as meaningful when there is so much time for things to go wrong. And who knows if he sticks at catcher.

[Road trip]

14 minutes ago, Danchat said:

They're still likely going to protect him at that point, even if he isn't ready to play in 2028. They protected Emmanuel Rodriguez when he was turning 21 and hadn't jumped up to AA yet.

Yeah, Tait being such a long ways away was why I wasn't a big fan of the Duran trade. I underestimated Abel, but Tait was 18 at the time of the trade and he's so far away from playing, all of the rankings putting him up so high aren't as meaningful when there is so much time for things to go wrong. And who knows if he sticks at catcher.

Young prospects remind me of seed corn, if you will bear with a farming analogy.

My neighbor likes to say that seed corn is all 300 bushel an acre potential when it is still in the bag.  You plant it, and perhaps conditions aren't ideal in April, chip away 10 bushels.  You have some soil fertility issues apparent in May, chip away 15 bushels.  Weeds in June, -20 bushels.  Doesn't rain in July, -30 bushels.   Pretty soon that 300 bushel an acre potential dwindles down to 220 or less.

Same thing happens in the minors.  Young or newly drafted players haven't seen much adversity yet.  They look great "in the bag".  Tait isn't "in the bag" anymore, and has struggled with some adversity.  Next year it will be apparent that Tinney has some weaknesses as well, as all players do.  It doesn't mean that Tait, Tinney, or any other prospect won't eventually yield well, but many of them won't look as good a year or two after the Twins acquire them.  Like you I cringe a little when brand new guys are ranked well above players who have already performed well in the low to mid minors.  I'm excited about Tinney like everyone else, but ranking him near or equal to a guy like Jenkins who has already made it to AAA seems premature.

[weitz41]

I'm not overly worried about Tait. This year's draft picks may or will join him there. Lackey and Tinney are 1-2 years older than him. That's a ton of ABs, innings played, hundreds of hours or practice and boatloads of working with coaches. Way too early to get down on him, also rule 5 draft? He hasn't been Twin for a full season yet. Jeez relax.

In 2-3 years when Lackey takes over starting catcher and Tinney takes 1B after Lewis gets paid elsewhere and he's the BU catcher. The next season Tait can join them as BU catcher and platoon 1B with Tinney. All will be good.😉

Oops forgot about Diaw...I love his bat but don't think he is an MLB catching prospect. Kinda like Keaschall. I'd rather see Diaw in the OF

[mnfireman]

13 minutes ago, Road trip said:

Young prospects remind me of seed corn, if you will bear with a farming analogy.

My neighbor likes to say that seed corn is all 300 bushel an acre potential when it is still in the bag.  You plant it, and perhaps conditions aren't ideal in April, chip away 10 bushels.  You have some soil fertility issues apparent in May, chip away 15 bushels.  Weeds in June, -20 bushels.  Doesn't rain in July, -30 bushels.   Pretty soon that 300 bushel an acre potential dwindles down to 220 or less.

Same thing happens in the minors.  Young or newly drafted players haven't seen much adversity yet.  They look great "in the bag".  Tait isn't "in the bag" anymore, and has struggled with some adversity.  Next year it will be apparent that Tinney has some weaknesses as well, as all players do.  It doesn't mean that Tait, Tinney, or any other prospect won't eventually yield well, but many of them won't look as good a year or two after the Twins acquire them.  Like you I cringe a little when brand new guys are ranked well above players who have already performed well in the low to mid minors.  I'm excited about Tinney like everyone else, but ranking him near or equal to a guy like Jenkins who has already made it to AAA seems premature.

Well, the talk is about whether Lackey, not Tinney, is near or equal to Jenkins. No one has claimed Tinney as being even a top 30 team prospect yet.

[East Coast Twin]

3 hours ago, mnfireman said:

Tait becomes Rule 5 eligible in '27, at age 21. Lackey is already 21. No team will take Tait in the MLB portion but I would bet he will get picked in the MiLB portion, he will have to be added to the 40-man after next season, depending on the new labor agreement. 

A player doesn't need to be added to the 40 man roster to be protected from the MILB portion of the Rule 5 draft.  They only need to be on the 38 man AAA roster.

[bean5302]

3 hours ago, jkcarew said:

The odds are against both regardless, since they have so far to go. But I think your chances of being wrong on Tait are still significant.

I haven't written Tait off. I just think there's good reason to move him way down the prospect list. I don't normally care much about age, but he was in Cedar Rapids at age 18 after more than holding his own in Fort Myers at age 17. That is significant.

There's reason to believe he needs to learn a harsh lesson about the limits of his talents and how good the guys are he's going up against, learn to take what he's given in terms of pitches and exercise patience. If he's just over aggressive, he can easily correct. April had a strong start. May was terrible. June showed a much improved K rate, but it came with almost no walks while July has looked like May again, only worse. The way his results have been up and down suggest he's trying to adapt, but he may not have the patience to stick through the adaptation struggles. 

Perhaps the biggest issue for him at Cedar Rapids is Tinney and Lackey. Both Lackey and Tinney are likely able to play in High-A this year. There's no space for all 3, and AA is probably a stretch for any of them. One of them needs to be in Fort Myers. 

[bean5302]

3 hours ago, Dman said:

...I have some hope for Tinney mainly because he does walk a good amount.  Still it's a long round when you can't hit any breaking stuff.  The power is very real. he could start out hot at the lower levels, but I'd bet he stalls by AA...

If Tinney can't adjust to breaking stuff, he'll definitely stall by AA. Tough to say how well he'll do. 

 

[Dman]

16 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

If Tinney can't adjust to breaking stuff, he'll definitely stall by AA. Tough to say how well he'll do. 

 

Yeah, I bet against Jeffers and was wrong and they gave him a below average grade with the bat. I am hopeful Tinney can figure it out.  It took Larnach a looong time to adjust to breaking stuff.  It's not easy.  Tinney's power potential is exciting though.  If he can hit some and keep that K rate below 30% that's a bat I can live with.

It's just that we've seen this type of profile fail so much it's hard to get too excited until he passes the AA test.  They'll have refined breakers and off speed at that level so if it is still a weakness it will show up there.

[bean5302]

24 minutes ago, Dman said:

Yeah, I bet against Jeffers and was wrong and they gave him a below average grade with the bat. I am hopeful Tinney can figure it out.  It took Larnach a looong time to adjust to breaking stuff.  It's not easy.  Tinney's power potential is exciting though.  If he can hit some and keep that K rate below 30% that's a bat I can live with.

It's just that we've seen this type of profile fail so much it's hard to get too excited until he passes the AA test.  They'll have refined breakers and off speed at that level so if it is still a weakness it will show up there.

I think it took Larnach a long time to make the adjustments he needed to hit breaking balls. I mean, he was a guaranteed out vs. changeups at one point. When he made the adjustments, he lost his elite fastball hitting, but it appears he's finally found the combo this year. Larnach is just hitting everything now.

That said, Larnach was billed a plus hit tool guy. Tinney's swing is considered a tough one to cope with breaking balls. Brent Rooker is probably a better comp for Tinney at the plate. Right handed hitter with lots of power, willing to take walks, but with quite a bit swing and miss. Rooker adapted his swing in his final college year and it did improve his ability to get to breaking pitches. He also had a significant hiccup in AA. Speaking of Rooker, done for the year after he couldn't play effectively through a knee tear after starting the season with an oblique injury.

[h2oface]

This draft makes the showcase return for Duran look asinine. No MLB team would trade Duran for Tait and Abel now. (Homer fans and Tait apologists, yes. Actual MLB General Managers, no way) Value? The value was Duran pitching his career with the Twins. Same with Louis Varland. Roden will be a mediocre piece until Jenkins is promoted. The only smart trade was Jax for Bradley. I will be surprised if Tait is anywhere close to a top 100 prospect list in the coming updates. 

[TL]

Abel and Tait was a good return for 1.5 season of Duran (and at best only 1 pennant chase). Yeah Abel is hurt but he looked very good until then and under control for 5 more years. I’d still take it rather than pay big money for Duran’s declining years, despite how good he’d look right now in the BP.

[big dog]

7 hours ago, h2oface said:

 Value? The value was Duran pitching his career with the Twins. Same with Louis Varland. 

Right, because all good pitchers who come up with the Twins continue to get re-signed and spend their entire productive careers with the Twins...trying to think of one...nope, I'm pretty sure that just doesn't happen. 

[big dog]

7 hours ago, h2oface said:

 The only smart trade was Jax for Bradley. 

Henry Mendez for Bader's expiring contract looks pretty good. 

Garrett Horn for Coulombe's expiring contract too.

Two pitchers for Castro's expiring contract.

Jiminez for Dobnack and Paddack.

Right now we could get any of those guys back for nothing or almost nothing. Wouldn't you characterize those as smart trades?

[Road trip]

15 hours ago, mnfireman said:

Well, the talk is about whether Lackey, not Tinney, is near or equal to Jenkins. No one has claimed Tinney as being even a top 30 team prospect yet.

Yup...typo on my part :)