The Twins Need to Trade Joe Ryan at the Deadline

[chpettit19]

8 minutes ago, karcherd said:

And Zoll also helped get Roden and Outman, not positions of need.  Your top baseball man has to present a plan to Tommy and convince him why it is the best path forward.  He then either accepts or rejects the plan.  

Outman is bad and should be cut. But Brock Stewart has thrown 5.2 innings for the Dodgers. The idea that they were getting anything besides a severely flawed player back for him is simply ridiculous.

The Twins have Kody Clemens and Ryan Kreidler playing CF and you want to argue that outfielders are not a position of need? It looks like Wallner is toast and Larnach is not going to be around much longer (they aren't extending him). Emma can't stay on the field and has used all 3 option years with likely 0 MLB PAs. Jenkins is hurt AGAIN. I'm no huge Roden fan, but he'd be in the majors playing regularly right now if he hadn't gotten hurt.

Not to mention that if your expectation is 100% wins on trades you're going to be disappointed in every person who has ever made a trade in professional sports. Outman for Stewart and half of the Varland trade being the only thing you can come up with out of the record setting number of deals they made last deadline should probably say something to you.

Tommy boy doesn't care about the baseball reasoning. The only thing the Pohlads care about at this point is money and maximizing it. Likely hoping to maximize their sale amount after the CBA is finalized. If Tom thinks the team is worth more with Joe Ryan on it, it doesn't matter what Zoll or anyone else says to him, Joe Ryan isn't getting traded.

[karcherd]

1 minute ago, chpettit19 said:

Outman is bad and should be cut. But Brock Stewart has thrown 5.2 innings for the Dodgers. The idea that they were getting anything besides a severely flawed player back for him is simply ridiculous.

The Twins have Kody Clemens and Ryan Kreidler playing CF and you want to argue that outfielders are not a position of need? It looks like Wallner is toast and Larnach is not going to be around much longer (they aren't extending him). Emma can't stay on the field and has used all 3 option years with likely 0 MLB PAs. Jenkins is hurt AGAIN. I'm no huge Roden fan, but he'd be in the majors playing regularly right now if he hadn't gotten hurt.

Tommy boy doesn't care about the baseball reasoning. The only thing the Pohlads care about at this point is money and maximizing it. Likely hoping to maximize their sale amount after the CBA is finalized. If Tom thinks the team is worth more with Joe Ryan on it, it doesn't matter what Zoll or anyone else says to him, Joe Ryan isn't getting traded.

At the time the trades were made adding more LH corner OF's made no sense regardless of what you were giving up.  It shows a lack of plan and Zoll was part of that.  

We don't know what the Pohlad's truly care, about it is all speculation.  I get you may not like the Pohlad family and you have that right.  My point is the Pohlads need to put someone in charge and let them run the baseball side of the team, I don't want a hands on owner.  That started with Tommy's little brother and they have been more successful when they let McPhail and Ryan run the team.  The owners should be providing oversight but give their management team some latitude to do what they think is best for the team.

[chpettit19]

53 minutes ago, karcherd said:

At the time the trades were made adding more LH corner OF's made no sense regardless of what you were giving up.  It shows a lack of plan and Zoll was part of that.  

We don't know what the Pohlad's truly care, about it is all speculation.  I get you may not like the Pohlad family and you have that right.  My point is the Pohlads need to put someone in charge and let them run the baseball side of the team, I don't want a hands on owner.  That started with Tommy's little brother and they have been more successful when they let McPhail and Ryan run the team.  The owners should be providing oversight but give their management team some latitude to do what they think is best for the team.

Your argument is that it showed a lack of a plan because they didn't need LH corner OF's at the time but everything since then shows that they actually did need LH corner OF's. Or any OF really. That argument doesn't resonate with me. Sorry. The actuality of what has happened is that they did need Roden. 

And there's never any position that is log jammed, or blocked, or however you want to describe it. It feels like people's memories get wiped every season. There's no such thing as too much depth. Anywhere. Again, Roden would be playing RIGHT NOW if he wasn't hurt. He also plays 1B. The Twins could use a long-term 1B, right? I wouldn't put money on it being him, but he would've given them another option at least. 

The plan should always be to acquire talent. That is the only plan you need. Have more talent today than you did yesterday. I didn't love the deadline at the time either. But so far this year all of us who complained are being shown we were quite possibly very wrong. And again, you can name 2 guys out of 10 they brought in that you don't like. 80% feels like a pretty successful deadline. And since it's turned out they did need Roden, I think maybe it's not real smart to continue with the narrative that he was a bad target.

Tommy's little brother? You mean Joe? The guy who was never around and everything ever reported or talked about him is that he wasn't only not a hands-on owner, but was actually much closer to an absentee owner? I'm not a fan of the Pohlads, but I still have a relatively realistic view of them. You're arguing the opposite of reality.

[soyouresayingtheresachance]

My preference would be to extend Ryan for 4 or 5 years. As mentioned in the article, he is an Ace type pitcher. If we want to compete, we need dominant pitchers like Ryan. 

Based on what i read here on TD, we have a logjam of talent at AAA waiting to be called up. Roden, Erod, and Jenkins are currently injured,  but Culpepper is close. Fedko doesn't seem to have much left to prove at AAA, nor does Sabato. Gonzalez seems ready to, at minimum, be a solid platoon bat. Hendry Mendez has been great at AAA and will be ready for a call up soon. Ross is doing great since his call up too AAA, as has Olivar. Then there's still Roden, who has MLB experience. ERod who is ready but often injured, and Jenkins not far behind. 

When will we see these guys? Obviously not all will pan out at the MLB level, but I'd sure like to get a look at them. 

So, while I agree trading Ryan would get us a haul in return, when would we even see them play? Or would it be AA players or lower? If thats the case, hard pass for me. 

[Greglw3]

No way they get equitable value for s total stud like Ryan and no way they can use the excuse that they can’t afford him. Right, Tom Pohlad, we will do what it takes to compete? He’s the foundation of the team going forward. Extend him.

[Wedman13]

54 minutes ago, karcherd said:

And Zoll also helped get Roden and Outman, not positions of need.  Your top baseball man has to present a plan to Tommy and convince him why it is the best path forward.  He then either accepts or rejects the plan.  

The twins do not have the luxury of taking positions of need versus the best they feel available.   In the draft should they shy away from Cholowsy, Emerson, Lombard and LeBron because they have culpepper, Houston and Debarge?  No Lackey because they have Jeffers, Tait and Jimenez?  No Flora because they have Pablo, Joe, Taj, Abel, quick, Ellwanger and Soto?   so they take the Gio kid who is ranked like 15 at #3 because LH starting pitching is a bit thin across the organization?

Again, I hate the thought of trading Ryan, but if you do I believe you get the best talent possible, and if they all work (doubtful given the Twins) you have a great problem on your hands.  My opinion only.

[chpettit19]

10 minutes ago, Greglw3 said:

No way they get equitable value for s total stud like Ryan and no way they can use the excuse that they can’t afford him. Right, Tom Pohlad, we will do what it takes to compete? He’s the foundation of the team going forward. Extend him.

He turns 30 in 3 days. How long are you planning to build around him as the foundation? 35 year old Joe Ryan going to be worth the 30 mil you'll need to pay him? 

Joe is great. Its never fun moving on from talent like his. But building around a 30 year old pitcher who's never made it through and entire season dominant feels like a questionable decision. He most likely has 2 or 3 more years close to this level of performance. Doesn't feel like somebody you build around.

[Vanimal46]

4 hours ago, LA Vikes Fan said:

I don't think we should trade him for guys in A or even AA Ball unless the latter is someone who can skip AAA and come straight to the parent club.

How many guys do you think you eliminated in the graphic below by this criteria?

[Vanimal46]

The answer to the above is 8 out of MLB.com’s top 10 prospects not being eligible to players playing AAA or above baseball. I’d take any of these players for Joe Ryan right now. 

[USAFChief]

I wouldn't even wait till the deadline. Do it now. You'll get more.

And they absolutely should trade him.

[Greglw3]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

He turns 30 in 3 days. How long are you planning to build around him as the foundation? 35 year old Joe Ryan going to be worth the 30 mil you'll need to pay him? 

Joe is great. Its never fun moving on from talent like his. But building around a 30 year old pitcher who's never made it through and entire season dominant feels like a questionable decision. He most likely has 2 or 3 more years close to this level of performance. Doesn't feel like somebody you build around.

With Walker Jenkins, Kaelen Culpepper, likely the return of Mick Abel, Emmanuel Rodriguez and Hendry Mendez plus possibly Gabby Gonzalez - the Twins can be competitive as soon as this year. The offense needs more but that group of prospects could impact this season and next when Ryan is 30 and 31 greatly. 

The fact is with a rotation of Ryan, Bradley, Abel, Prielipp, Kendry Rojas or maybe Ober again, the starting pitching could be strong again. The managing of Shelty and the contributions of Sizemore and Hawkins have been huge. Keaschall is starting to hit...he’s really important. Culpepper is hitting .261 with 13 HR + 12 SB in 13 attempts, just he would help a lot. 

[Glorybound]

The time to extend Ryan was two years ago. The value was there and ownership missed it. Be that as it may today is today and this 2026 version of the Twins isn’t going anywhere. I still think it is a mistake to hold him much after the all star break. There is a window of opportunity to get max value for him. As a fan I would love to keep him but it doesn’t make sense.

[Mike Sixel]

53 minutes ago, Glorybound said:

The time to extend Ryan was two years ago. The value was there and ownership missed it. Be that as it may today is today and this 2026 version of the Twins isn’t going anywhere. I still think it is a mistake to hold him much after the all star break. There is a window of opportunity to get max value for him. As a fan I would love to keep him but it doesn’t make sense.

This. Emotionally I'd love to have him. But I see how Milwaukee and Cleveland run, and the Twins should emulate them. And trade him. 

[DJL44]

I remember when they traded Johan Santana because they couldn’t afford an extension. In hindsight they should have kept him until free agency and grabbed the compensation picks.

[dxpavelka]

Trading Ryan would be a fine idea. IF they were assured that of a return along the lines of what they received when they traded Nelson Cruz.  Problem is that, as often as not those deals don't work the way you hope.  The best case scenario is that at some point in the next year or two they find themselves in contention.  At that point they will find themselves in need of a Joe Ryan.  Why not keep him and make him the centerpiece of a return to prominence.  This team is never going to be a team that makes the fans happy by spending like drunken sailors to bring in outside free agents.  Never has.  Never will.  But they HAVE been a team that has spent to keep their own guys.  Puckett's two contracts broke the market.  Joe Mauer.  Johan Santana's last contract here was solid.  Buxton.  The best case scenario is that trading Ryan leaves a Ryan size need on the squad.  Seem like an easy answer.

[Glorybound]

2 minutes ago, dxpavelka said:

Trading Ryan would be a fine idea. IF they were assured that of a return along the lines of what they received when they traded Nelson Cruz.  Problem is that, as often as not those deals don't work the way you hope.  The best case scenario is that at some point in the next year or two they find themselves in contention.  At that point they will find themselves in need of a Joe Ryan.  Why not keep him and make him the centerpiece of a return to prominence.  This team is never going to be a team that makes the fans happy by spending like drunken sailors to bring in outside free agents.  Never has.  Never will.  But they HAVE been a team that has spent to keep their own guys.  Puckett's two contracts broke the market.  Joe Mauer.  Johan Santana's last contract here was solid.  Buxton.  The best case scenario is that trading Ryan leaves a Ryan size need on the squad.  Seem like an easy answer.

Because even as an arbitration player Joe is going to cost more than our cheap owners want to spend.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

13 hours ago, karcherd said:

Why do we need more prospects, we either don't develop or play the ones we have now.  So let's just load up on some more to sit behind the AAAA types and aging vets.

I don't want Zoll anywhere near making this type of decision for this organization.  We need someone leading baseball operations who knows what they are doing.

While I share your enthusiasm to move on from Zoll, this upcoming offseason has too much uncertainty, and the 2027 trade deadline even more.

Indecision is the worst outcome.

[chpettit19]

11 hours ago, Greglw3 said:

With Walker Jenkins, Kaelen Culpepper, likely the return of Mick Abel, Emmanuel Rodriguez and Hendry Mendez plus possibly Gabby Gonzalez - the Twins can be competitive as soon as this year. The offense needs more but that group of prospects could impact this season and next when Ryan is 30 and 31 greatly. 

The fact is with a rotation of Ryan, Bradley, Abel, Prielipp, Kendry Rojas or maybe Ober again, the starting pitching could be strong again. The managing of Shelty and the contributions of Sizemore and Hawkins have been huge. Keaschall is starting to hit...he’s really important. Culpepper is hitting .261 with 13 HR + 12 SB in 13 attempts, just he would help a lot. 

To what end? Impact how? I'm not going to go through the whole list, but suggesting Emma is likely to play a meaningful role on a competitive Twins team this year feels awfully optimistic considering he won't be back until August and will then have missed 3 months of games. 

How competitive are you thinking? Playoff run built on a core of 5+ rookies? Do you have an example of a team that has done that in the past? 2 examples? How many teams can you say made real playoff noise because of 5+ rookies, many of whom didn't debut until after the All Star game?

The Twins thought they were going to roll because they had 3 rookie stars in 2023 that helped carry them to the playoffs, and some wins there. None of those 3 guys are on the Twins 26-man roster today. It shouldn't be long before Julien is in AAA and then none of the 3 will even be in the majors anymore.

If your goal is to watch a more athletic team of guys who may be able to help have a true playoff threat in 2028, I agree, a combination of those guys would help that. But you'll either be paying Joe Ryan 30 mil a year by then or he won't be around and you'll have 1 comp pick to show for it.

[Major League Ready]

10 hours ago, Greglw3 said:

No way they get equitable value for s total stud like Ryan and no way they can use the excuse that they can’t afford him. Right, Tom Pohlad, we will do what it takes to compete? He’s the foundation of the team going forward. Extend him.

I would prefer to get 2 top 100 prospects and then go resign Ryan in 2028 if he is healthy.  They are not getting a discount now so if they are willing to pay the price they can have him or someone like him and a couple good prospects. 

[karcherd]

18 minutes ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

While I share your enthusiasm to move on from Zoll, this upcoming offseason has too much uncertainty, and the 2027 trade deadline even more.

Indecision is the worst outcome.

You are correct about the indecision.  That is why I think at a minimum they need to bring a Senior Advisor in to help Zoll out and give him some guidance thru this process.  There is definitely a layer of complexity with not knowing what will happen with the labor agreement.  Which is the biggest reason Zoll shouldn't be in charge.  It's hard enough to run a team in normal circumstances when it is your first time at the top but this just shows the experience needed.

[tony&rodney]

The worry about any pitcher is always injury. Ryan has had moments of injury and decline in his career. Right now I would suggest he is easily among the top twenty starting pitchers in MLB. Ryan is not the guy to throw complete game shutouts but he can go through any lineup for 6-7 innings and hold the opponent to three runs or less on a consistent basis. If Ryan had a better defense behind him he would be even better. I would think there is high value there.

The Twins do not need to trade Joe Ryan. It would be good if the club could get real talent in return in a transaction though. Last winter I suggested a few ideas. One was to trade Ryan, Roden or Lewis, and Charlee Soto to Detroit for Max Clark. Detroit is a mess now and were never likely to listen on Clark. I wonder if the Twins can coerce a team that is interested in Ryan to trade a top prospect if the Twins add a couple players. The Athletics might benefit from Ryan now. Put out an offer of Ryan, Lewis, Roden, and Dasan Hill for Leodalis De Vries. Again, likely to get the cold shoulder. Would Boston consider a package for Franklin Arias? 

I think it is going to be difficult to get a decent return for Joe Ryan and if the return is just more fourth outfielders, utility infielders, and back of the rotation pitchers, the Twins should just hold onto Ryan.

[TheLeviathan]

11 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Your argument is that it showed a lack of a plan because they didn't need LH corner OF's at the time but everything since then shows that they actually did need LH corner OF's. Or any OF really. That argument doesn't resonate with me. Sorry. The actuality of what has happened is that they did need Roden. 

And there's never any position that is log jammed, or blocked, or however you want to describe it. It feels like people's memories get wiped every season. There's no such thing as too much depth. Anywhere. Again, Roden would be playing RIGHT NOW if he wasn't hurt. He also plays 1B. The Twins could use a long-term 1B, right? I wouldn't put money on it being him, but he would've given them another option at least. 

The plan should always be to acquire talent. That is the only plan you need. Have more talent today than you did yesterday. I didn't love the deadline at the time either. But so far this year all of us who complained are being shown we were quite possibly very wrong. And again, you can name 2 guys out of 10 they brought in that you don't like. 80% feels like a pretty successful deadline. And since it's turned out they did need Roden, I think maybe it's not real smart to continue with the narrative that he was a bad target.

Tommy's little brother? You mean Joe? The guy who was never around and everything ever reported or talked about him is that he wasn't only not a hands-on owner, but was actually much closer to an absentee owner? I'm not a fan of the Pohlads, but I still have a relatively realistic view of them. You're arguing the opposite of reality.

I'm in, like, 99% agreement with you but I did find it odd the types of players they targeted from a positional standpoint in that sell-off.  We did have a lot of left-handed corner types.  Which, as you point out, isn't necessarily bad because you always need depth....but then why roadblock those guys with scrubs like Bell and Caritini?

I struggle sometimes to see the long-term vision.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

7 hours ago, Glorybound said:

The time to extend Ryan was two years ago. The value was there and ownership missed it. Be that as it may today is today and this 2026 version of the Twins isn’t going anywhere. I still think it is a mistake to hold him much after the all star break. There is a window of opportunity to get max value for him. As a fan I would love to keep him but it doesn’t make sense.

The discussion back then was “He’ll be a free agent just before he turns 32, how much longer do you want to keep him after that and at what price?”

While I love watching Ryan pitch in a Twins uniform, his edgy demeanor and fiery personality and the Twins are an absolutely better team with him, than without… I’ve never seen him as an extension candidate.

It shocks me just how awesome that trade worked out, to get such good pitching, prime years, all in arbitration salary.

 

all good things come to an end, it’s ok.

better to die with my boots on than rotting in a bed

[TJSweens]

14 hours ago, Rick Blaine said:

Extend Joe Ryan to show some good faith. 

Ryan should have been extended last off season to a 3 or 4 year deal. The Twins failure to do so was criminally stupid. It would opened their decision window on him wider. It also would have increased his value at this year's deadline. 

As it is, the Twins are now in a position where they will get less for Ryan this year than they could have gotten last year.

[Trov]

This is just like when Berrios had 1.5 years of control.  First, do you say we do not have a chance this year and trade him for best deal possible during trade deadline?  Do you play out the season and try to extend him in offseason or trade him during the offseason?  Do you go into next year on a contract year and see how things are going and trade him at that deadline if warranted? 

All options are out there.  My guess he will not give a discount in contract, he does not strike me as one that would take less to stay, so they will need to pay up for him.  Do you think he will maintain into his mid 30's?  I cannot say.  He has had questions about health as well. 

If the team thinks they can make playoffs this year, you do not trade him, as he is your best pitcher.  If however, you feel this is not your year, this trade deadline is when you could fetch most for him.  What that is, who knows.  Cleveland did this several times in the past decade trading away one if not their best starting pitchers during the year, and still competed.  In part it was because they had a ton of pitching behind that.  We are getting a little thin at starting pitching right now. 

[JBK]

With that type of thinking, the Twins should have traded Frank Viola back in '84-'86 prior to the Twins winning the World Series.  Sign the guy.  You can still get him cheap for next year.  I also believe the Twins can extend Pablo for another year or two on the cheap as well.  I just wish the Front Office would try and win.  Josh Bell and James Outman are not examples of the Front Office "trying".  Signing a veteran reliever with a lifetime ERA over 5.00 is not "trying".  Come on, at least try.

[Jasper]

Does Joe want to stay? I doubt it. Will there be baseball next year? I would love for him to resign, but you can get something for him now, instead of letting him walk for no return in the future.

[twinzcynic]

16 hours ago, karcherd said:

I don't want Zoll anywhere near making this type of decision for this organization.  We need someone leading baseball operations who knows what they are doing.

This is my main concern. Falvine had little success with these (except of course selling high on Cruz to acquire Ryan) and Zoll seems to be cut in their same cloth.

[chpettit19]

2 hours ago, TheLeviathan said:

I'm in, like, 99% agreement with you but I did find it odd the types of players they targeted from a positional standpoint in that sell-off.  We did have a lot of left-handed corner types.  Which, as you point out, isn't necessarily bad because you always need depth....but then why roadblock those guys with scrubs like Bell and Caritini?

I struggle sometimes to see the long-term vision.

Oh, I struggle, too. And I'm certainly not here to suggest anyone should not question Zoll and his ability to do the job he's now in. But I'd point out we don't know what the other offers were for anyone. Roden wasn't the key part of the Varland deal, Rojas was. If Rojas was the best prospect they were offered and the Jays were offering either Roden or some nobody in rookie ball, I'd say Roden makes sense. If they were offering Rojas and a SS at the same level as Roden, then I'd say Roden doesn't make sense.

If they brought back the best talent possible in their trades, I have no complaints. There's no way for me to ever know that. But I don't get hung up on the positions of anyone. Especially in a year like last year. To this point, I'd say it's hard to judge the deadline as anything but a success for the long-term. That may change. Maybe it changes by the end of the season if guys all just fall apart. But the early returns are quite promising pretty much across the board. I'll always prefer athletic, up the middle types, but if you're not getting offered any of them then it's hard to blame them for taking other positions. Just accumulate talent and figure it out from there.

I didn't mind the Caratini signing. Would've preferred a 1-year deal, but he'd been good the last couple years and they need(ed) a catcher. Bell made less sense to me because you don't ever want him in the field and he's not a great bat. Overall, I agree that I don't always see their plan or agree with what they do. But it's hard for me to be mad at the deals they made anymore. They're mostly looking pretty darn solid.

[chpettit19]

2 hours ago, TJSweens said:

Ryan should have been extended last off season to a 3 or 4 year deal. The Twins failure to do so was criminally stupid. It would opened their decision window on him wider. It also would have increased his value at this year's deadline. 

As it is, the Twins are now in a position where they will get less for Ryan this year than they could have gotten last year.

As it turns out, Joe Ryan has a say in whether or not the Twins extend him. And if you listened to his public comments after the trade deadline, you may not be inclined to believe he'd sign an extension here. They could overpay him to get him to sign, but that would then have the opposite effect on his trade value.

And I'd say they can get pretty much the same now as the could've last year. We're not talking an extra top 100 prospect or anything. It'd be a slight improvement on the 3rd or 4th prospect in the deal. There isn't some massive swing in value going from 2.5 to 1.5 in controlled years.