Mets 3, Twins 2: A Fun Night, a Tough Loss

[1985Fan]

Wallner is not a big league hitter, I don’t care what the stats say. He can hit his bombs against a bad pitcher, but he’s a strikeout machine against good or great pitching. We were told that he worked on minimizing his exaggerated batting stance and movements during the offseason. He looks the same at the plate to me. 
On top of terrible swing, he seems to me to guess at the plate a lot. I don’t think he picks up spin or recognizes pitches. Combine that with his huge swing to come to the conclusion that he is nothing more than Sano 2.0. Sano had better swing, he just refused to try to put the ball in play and instead wanted to hit home runs every AB. 
As another poster said, Wallner isn’t a prospect anymore so it’s time he starts producing. I’d give him another month or so, then it will be obvious to all that he’s not going to be a consistent hitter. He’s just a K in the lineup, wherever you put him. Let’s see what Roden can do when he’s healthy. Should give ERod a full season, or close to it, in St. Paul before promoting him. 

[jmlease1]

Solid enough start for Prielipp, which is nice to see. Tough to not be able to get through 5, though. Can't blame Twins management for pulling him; MLB debut probably isn't the right time to have someone throw 100 pitches for the first time in their pro career? Finishing off MLB hitters is harder than the minors by a lot and it's something Prielipp needs to work on. Too many 8 pitch AB's. But he's got the stuff to get there, and Twins should feel ok about him filling in for Abel. I liked seeing him finish 13-17 on first pitch strikes.

Offense needs to do better; not enough baserunners last night, and not enough hitting when we had runners on. Keaschall is definitely scrabbling. Buxton, Martin, and Bell (maybe Larnach; he's been great but hasn't gotten to play a lot) are the only guys you can really count on right now and that's not enough.

[JD-TWINS]

Wallner’s defense does not bother me - he’s big and slow & that’s not changing. He’s in love with his arm and is not sharp with getting rid of the ball quickly but with different expectations and better effort, that can change. He’s not supposed to be (expected to be) a good defender. HOWEVER, he’s supposed to be an impact bat and he’s not! …….Killebrew played LF and was limited there ……. this approach is nothing new.

Lee is essentially the same. Slow, mediocre defensive skills. Not going to change. HOWEVER, he’s supposed to be a positive offensively. He hits a dozen slow rollers to 2B for every XBH - Marek Houston can do that while playing MUCH better defense.

Rogers cannot walk a LH hitter (.207 BA) after picking off Soto for 2nd out and after a positive Jeffers ABS challenge. He threw 3 straight, non-competitive balls…….deserved to get hung with the loss! Topa gave up a flair hit - it happens……….. The PROBLEM is the offense putting up 2 runs - cannot win with that type of run production. Bullpen gave up 1 run in 5 innings - it was a disappointing run but Twin’s offense cost them the game.

[Senior Softball Guy]

15 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Wallner’s defense does not bother me - he’s big and slow & that’s not changing. He’s in love with his arm and is not sharp with getting rid of the ball quickly but with different expectations and better effort, that can change. He’s not supposed to be (expected to be) a good defender. HOWEVER, he’s supposed to be an impact bat and he’s not! …….Killebrew played LF and was limited there ……. this approach is nothing new.

Lee is essentially the same. Slow, mediocre defensive skills. Not going to change. HOWEVER, he’s supposed to be a positive offensively. He hits a dozen slow rollers to 2B for every XBH - Marek Houston can do that while playing MUCH better defense.

Rogers cannot walk a LH hitter (.207 BA) after picking off Soto for 2nd out and after a positive Jeffers ABS challenge. He threw 3 straight, non-competitive balls…….deserved to get hung with the loss! Topa gave up a flair hit - it happens……….. The PROBLEM is the offense putting up 2 runs - cannot win with that type of run production. Bullpen gave up 1 run in 5 innings - it was a disappointing run but Twin’s offense cost them the game.

While Buxton is an igniter, he has become a non-competive AB with runners in scoring position. With a runner on third and one out, I would rather have Carafini up. And how is the most competitive, most productive hitter not in the line-up everyday? What does Martin have to do to at least get that opportunity versus righties. 

[DJL44]

2 hours ago, Old Twins Hat said:

Lewis looked awful last night, on offense and defense.

But, what really chaps my ass is that he gets a bloop hit and he's all smiles and jokes and doing fancy hand-slapping at first base with the coach to the extent that there is no way for him to even think about stealing 2nd base on the first two pitches.

Then on the Buxton homer, you see him in the dugout hugging and jumping up and down.  It's the 6th tinning!  And he has two more strikeouts yet to come, and some more lousy defense to play.

What is he so over-joyed about?  

Can't Sheltie tell him to keep a lid on until we at least win the game?

It is really weird to be angry that Royce Lewis enjoys playing baseball.

[RpR]

3 hours ago, karcherd said:

A tough loss again, but it is going to be hard to get consistency from the bullpen.  And we gave them no margin for error by missing opportunities on offense.

A few thoughts on the young guys that everyone is down.  

Royce Lewis is just at 1,000 AB's right now, so per TK's motto, he needs to start figuring it out.  We need to give him this year and see if he is a part of the future.  He has just over 200 games at 3B, let's see if he can improve his fielding.  Not everyone comes up a finished product.  He was looking like his swing was getting better before he went on the IL, let's see if he can get back to that point.

Keaschall doesn't even have 300 AB's. play him and develop him.  Help him improve his defense at 2B, but leave him there or put him at another position but don't move him around.

I don't know what to say about Wallner.  He is just under 1,000 AB's and needs to figure it out.  I think they have to make a decision either ride with him or bring ERod or Roden up when healthy to replace him.  But if he is sent to St. Paul at this point you basically have to write him off.  He is not a young prospect anymore, make a decision either he is part of the core or he is not.  I still think there is something there but they need more talent to produce.  

They need to play Brooks or bring up Culpepper.  I am disappointed because I thought Lee would have more success but he does not appear to be the long term answer but it hasn't even been a full season for him at short.  I understand the doubt of whether he will actually figure it out.

But there are no options.  This team is not going to contend as currently constructed.  Giving regular playing time to players like Gray, Clemens, Kreidler is not going to be the answer and will not result in any additional wins that will turn us into a contender.  They need to figure out who is the core of the team and if this coaching staff can develop them, so we have glimmers of hope for the future.  But I don't want to see any more of these AAAA or 30 somethings with nothing to add being run out there.  That is boring baseball and gives us no hope.

 

Yeah play them, winning games is not important.

Gray, Clemens and Kreidler gave/give a better/good defense, that the wonder boys do not.

The same rhetoric you are spewing has been said about all the failed rookies for the past five years.  I will say bringing up a rookie for Right Field could not look any worse than leaving Wallner there.

If the fans want to the up coming gents in AAA, go to the St. Paul games, although, they lose there more often than the Twins do; fans do not want to see them get destroyed by Big League pitching.

Time to eliminate the failed youth or sit them.

[LambchoP]

Both Lee and Wallner are close to automatic outs at the plate lately. Lewis doesn't look good either. I think Wallner and Lee could use a week or two in AAA. See what Roden and a new SS can do. If they want to wait on K Pepper, bring up Arcia. Isn't that why they signed him?

[LA Vikes Fan]

A lot of talk about Wallner the same day that there was a very good article about wOBA as a measure of hitting value. wOBA basically takes the same stats that make up OPS and add in the situation in the game. We all know a bases clearing double is more valuable to the team winning than a bases empty double the next inning, for example, so the bases clearing double gets a gagster weight in wOBA. Before some of you guys complain about "more nerdy stats", I think this stat works well and I'm as old as most of you and grew up in baseball in the 1960s. So first, here ae the parameters to tell who's good:

Elite - .400+
Excellent - .360 to .400
Above Average - .345 to .360
Average - .332 to .345
Below Average - .315 to .332
Poor - Below .320 

The best 5 in 2025 - 

Aaron Judge - .463
Shohei Ohtani - .418
George Springer - .408
Cal Raleigh - .392
Kyle Schwarber - .391
Juan Soto - .390

Hmm, maybe this is meaningful. The Twins who play regularly so far this year 2026 wOBA/2025 wOBA:

Bell - .344/.324

Buxton - .326/.377

Caratini - .309/.318

Larnach - .393/.317

Wallner - .283/.334

Keaschall - .255/.363

Martin - .431/.333

Lewis - .334/.292

Jeffers - .377/.333

Lee - .280/.286

Clemens - .288/.307

Interesting stuff that frankly seems to be borne out by the eye test. Buxton is above average to elite, Bell average to above average, Caratini isn't much of a hitter, etc. This does tell us that our best hitters this year are Martin, Larnach, Jeffers and Bell, with Buxton likely to join them. It also tells us that Clemens can't hit, Lee can't either (at least so far), and Lewis hasn't been great since 2023 after a wOBA of .370 in 2022, .393 in 2023, and .317 in 2024. In other words, Lewis has been a below average hitter by this measure and most others now for 2 plus years which coincides with his most ABs. Not good.  

Wallner is interesting because he was average last year, horrible this year, but was excellent in 2023 and 2024 with an wOBA of .385 and ,377 respectively. It makes sticking with him understandable but also his regression downward over the last two years when he has gotten to play more is very concerning, much like Lewis. Let's face it, if Wallner doesn't hit he provides negative value to the team because he's a below average OF at best (I would say lousy), and he can't run. At all.   

Wallner and Lewis have been unmasked with regular playing time (and injuries, in Lewis' case). They are in "prove it" years. If they don't hit this year at ages 29 and 26, their odds of a long term MLB career take a huge hit. I think you give Wallner until about May 15 to June 1 to pick it up this year. If not, time to try someone else. Lewis is younger so maybe he gets the season but if he doesn't hit this year we should understand that he is very unlikely to be a middle of the order guy at any point.  

Also, for Gosh sakes, bench/DFA Clemens, play Bell at 1B against RH pitching, and get Martin in the frickin' lineup almost every day! 

 

[DJL44]

Keaschall has been the worst regular hitter on the team by a pretty big margin but people are too focused on their same old complaints to notice. He should be batting 9th in the lineup.

[USAFChief]

24 minutes ago, LA Vikes Fan said:

. wOBA basically takes the same stats that make up OPS and add in the situation in the game. We all know a bases clearing double is more valuable to the team winning than a bases empty double the next inning, for example, so the bases clearing double gets a gagster weight in wOBA.

Uh, no.

For the record, wOBA does not "add in the situation of the game." Specifically, wOBA would give the same value to a bases clearing double and a leadoff double the next inning. The same exact value to a double no matter the "game situation."

Here's a definition of wOBA. It's based on linear weights. Basically, a HR is worth more than a triple, which is worth more than a double, which is worth more than a single, which is worth more than a walk, etc etc. 

The basic idea is that not all OBP is created equal, and shouldn't be viewed as such. But it very definitely does not consider when the OBP occurred (1st inning, 9th inning etc), or the situation ( bases loaded, bases empty, 0 outs, 2 outs, etc). 

https://www.mlb.com/glossary/advanced-stats/weighted-on-base-average

Edited 1 hour ago by USAFChief

[stringer bell]

Rojas looks a long way from being a consistent contributor. Prielipp might be there or is close. Too many non-competitive pitches from both and if Prielipp wants to stay in the rotation, he needs to almost always go 5 and occasionally 6 or more innings. He’ll need to cut down on his number of pitches 

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

It is really weird to be angry that Royce Lewis enjoys playing baseball.

Right? Heaven forbid he be happy when good things happen....

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

I'm bullish on Priellep. Yes, I know the concerns over injury but who cares - I'll be optimistic. His stuff is elite. 

[Mike Sixel]

I'm the biggest Wallner apologist on this site, and I'd consider sending him to AAA. He's lost right now.

Really encouraged by both rookie pitchers! I'm ready for more youth, but I think we are still 2 months from that....

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

It is really weird to be angry that Royce Lewis enjoys playing baseball.

Yeah, I'm not understanding why Lewis' enthusiasm would upset anyone. If anything, I give him credit - he's been through quite the s*** storm with injuries and everything else - takes a strong person to keep smiling through all of that.

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, Senior Softball Guy said:

While Buxton is an igniter, he has become a non-competive AB with runners in scoring position. 

He's caught Matt Wallner Disease*, at least in the small sample of 100 PA so far this season.

Bases Empty, OPS .880.  Runners On, OPS .462. (Four solo HR, one two-run shot.)

> 4 run margin, OPS 1.071.  Situation 4 runs or closer, OPS .680. (Tie game, OPS .456.)

This helps explain 7 RBIs for about 1/7 of the season. Hope he turns this around fast.

 

* Who caught it from Joey Gallo. Unsure who Patient Zero was.

[Mike Sixel]

3 minutes ago, ashbury said:

He's caught Matt Wallner Disease, at least in the small sample of 100 PA so far this season.

Bases Empty, OPS .880.  Runners On, OPS .462. (Four solo HR, one two-run shot.)

> 4 run margin, OPS 1.071.  Situation 4 runs or closer, OPS .680. (Tie game, OPS .456.)

This helps explain 7 RBIs for about 1/7 of the season. Hope he turns this around fast.

In fairness, hard to hit with runners on with who is hitting "in front" of him. (I have no idea if this is true, but it SEEMS true).

[ashbury]

Just now, Mike Sixel said:

In fairness, hard to hit with runners on with who is hitting "in front" of him. (I have no idea if this is true, but it SEEMS true).

Counting stats versus rate stats.  His RBI opportunities have been few, but he's not cashed them in at a good rate.

[Mike Sixel]

2 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Counting stats versus rate stats.  His RBI opportunities have been few, but he's not cashed them in at a good rate.

Oh, I get that.....it is likely a sample size thing was my point.....likely....

[ashbury]

1 minute ago, Mike Sixel said:

Oh, I get that.....it is likely a sample size thing was my point.....likely....

Definitely small sample size.  I'm not "worried" worried.  Just a troubling start to his season.

[mickster]

43 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

Rojas looks a long way from being a consistent contributor. Prielipp might be there or is close. Too many non-competitive pitches from both and if Prielipp wants to stay in the rotation, he needs to almost always go 5 and occasionally 6 or more innings. He’ll need to cut down on his number of pitches 

Rojas will be on the train to St. Paul when Funderburk is back on Friday

 

[Riverbrian]

29 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'm the biggest Wallner apologist on this site, and I'd consider sending him to AAA. He's lost right now.

Really encouraged by both rookie pitchers! I'm ready for more youth, but I think we are still 2 months from that....

Wallner is certainly not looking good at the moment. 

He doesn't have to go down to AAA though. They just have to play him a little less for a moment and play Martin more for a moment.   

They should start tonight. Martin has sat two games in a row. Please don't make it three in a row. Play Martin tonight and sit Wallner against the right hander. Let Wallner play against Rasmussen on Friday in Tampa and then sit Wallner against the lefty McClanahan on Saturday and let him face the right handed Scholtens guy we will face on Sunday.

We should have at least a 6 game run of right handed starters after that with Seattle and Toronto to follow. Mix Martin into those 6 games. Let Wallner take some breathers, Make Wallner tell us he's ready for more when he starts putting the barrel on baseballs.    

I'm not a fan of allowing certain players to work themselves through struggles for an extended period of time and ignoring success of certain players for an extended period of time. That is backwards. 

I'll also add that I'm also not a fan of being impatient with developing players and Wallner is still a developing player making the minimum so you are still right to be an apologist.  

[ashbury]

2 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Wallner is still a developing player making the minimum.   

The man's 28 years old.  You're never too old to learn, but if he's still developing at that age then he qualifies as a slow learner, I'm afraid.

[Mike Sixel]

13 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Wallner is certainly not looking good at the moment. 

He doesn't have to go down to AAA though. They just have to play him a little less for a moment and play Martin more for a moment.   

They should start tonight. Martin has sat two games in a row. Please don't make it three in a row. Play Martin tonight and sit Wallner against the right hander. Let Wallner play against Rasmussen on Friday in Tampa and then sit Wallner against the lefty McClanahan on Saturday and let him face the right handed Scholtens guy we will face on Sunday.

We should have at least a 6 game run of right handed starters after that with Seattle and Toronto to follow. Mix Martin into those 6 games. Let Wallner take some breathers, Make Wallner tell us he's ready for more when he starts putting the barrel on baseballs.    

I'm not a fan of allowing certain players to work themselves through struggles for an extended period of time and ignoring success of certain players for an extended period of time. That is backwards. 

I'll also add that I'm also not a fan of being impatient with developing players and Wallner is still a developing player making the minimum so you are still right to be an apologist.  

Sitting Martin is BAD baseball. I just do NOT understand this org. 

Wallner is in his 4th ML season......and the last 1+ have not been even close to good enough to warrant playing every day. 

[Vanimal46]

47 minutes ago, Twins_Fan_in_NJ said:

I'm bullish on Priellep. Yes, I know the concerns over injury but who cares - I'll be optimistic. His stuff is elite. 

That wipeout slider and 96 MPH heat will absolutely work in MLB. 

[bean5302]

13 hours ago, bean5302 said:

.750 expected batting average on that ball. I don't see Byron Buxton making a play on that if Buxton was in RF, but Savant will update with the expected catch percentage tomorrow. Then again, low hanging fruit. Wallner is going to take heat on any and every play he doesn't make at this point. Upper deck home run? Do you even jump, bruh? lol

As I suspected. This hit doesn't even show up on Matt Wallner's potential grid of plays. There was no chance of catching the ball.

Juan Soto's line out shows up at 22ft, 3.4 seconds on the grid so it's up to date.

[bean5302]

4 hours ago, TJSweens said:

I am going to go against the consensus here. I think any number of right fielders make that catch that Wallner didn't. I think even Larnach makes that catch because he makes better reads, gets better jumps and is a little faster...

It was not even recorded as a possible attempt for any fielder in the game by Baseball Savant. It was so far out of the realm of possibility it's not even in consideration for the potential a fielder could have made a play on it.

[The Great Hambino]

51 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

In fairness, hard to hit with runners on with who is hitting "in front" of him. (I have no idea if this is true, but it SEEMS true).

You're not imagining things

13 fewer base runners - and 8 fewer in scoring position - than league average for his # of PAs

[USAFChief]

24 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

As I suspected. This hit doesn't even show up on Matt Wallner's potential grid of plays. There was no chance of catching the ball.

Juan Soto's line out shows up at 22ft, 3.4 seconds on the grid so it's up to date.

These old eyes did not decieve me, even from 3 time zones away.