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Posted
Image courtesy of © Mike Watters-Imagn Images

There’s a triumvirate of top-100 hitting prospects playing at CHS Field this spring, on one of Minor League Baseball’s most offensively loaded teams. Naturally, Twins fans are wondering who will debut first. In the early going, Emmanuel Rodriguez has been the most productive and looks the most ready. What’s fueled his incandescent April? A change in approach and setup at the plate.

We’ll start with his setup at the plate. Rodríguez has closed his batting stance this year. Slight camera angle differences aside, notice the difference in his setup in the first image (2025) and the second image (2026).

024DB10A-E72C-44F0-9F31-E6FECE2E5368.JPG

What are the potential benefits here? Several, but I want to focus on two; being more closed can help with coverage on the outside part of the plate. Additionally, it can support better hip rotation and directionality with his swing. Both benefits seem to be playing out for Rodríguez through the first month of the season. 

The outside portion of the plate (down and away) has been a weak spot for Rodríguez, throughout his professional career. Since he hits the ball so dang hard, we’ll use quality of contact as a proxy for his ability to do damage. In 2025, Rodríguez averaged 84.4 mph on batted balls in that quadrant of the zone, good for a .353 slugging percentage. In 2026, it’s 94.3 mph, resulting in a 1.000 slugging percentage at the time of writing.

In order to examine the second contention, we need to revisit 2025. Rodríguez had a weird year. He played 52 games at Triple-A, and managed a 134 wRC+ despite only rocking a .166 ISO. For context here, a .140 ISO is around league average. Rodríguez, who will always strike out at an above-average rate, has a power-reliant offensive profile, so sitting at such a low mark was discouraging. He simply wasn’t launching the baseball in 2025. He carried a 51.6% ground-ball rate. Below, you can see his launch angles by zone from last year. Insert sad trombone.

2025 LA by zone.png

The newly closed stance has ameliorated that issue in 2026. While it’s only 16 games, his ground-ball rate is just 31.6%, which has allowed him to tap into a .263 ISO. Peep the launch angles by zone in 2026. That’s looking much more productive. 

2026 LA by zone.png
 

If you want more evidence, he recently hit the hardest ball in St. Paul Saints history (117.1 mph), and he leads all Triple-A players ages 23 and under in EV90, at 110.8 mph. Those numbers probably won’t hold, but they're both markers of top-of-the-scale power. In short, this is the potential 30-home run bat Twins fans have been dreaming of.

We should also discuss some changes Rodríguez has made in his approach at the plate. Describing his plate discipline binary pithily as ‘patience or passivity’ has become a staple of our analysis of Rodríguez since he became a notable prospect. Through the first month of the season, he’s made some swing decision tweaks that might finally help put that phrase to bed.

In his 52-game 2025 Triple-A sample, Rodríguez swung at 38.1% of pitches. That's as low as anyone goes in MLB. Only Taylor Ward and Juan Soto swung less often in the majors last year. That’s not necessarily a problem, in and of itself, but it’s easy for that lack of aggression to quickly become an impediment. How would this play out disadvantageously? Hypotheticaly, Rodríguez would be waiting for his perfect pitch and quickly get into 0-2 or 1-2 counts. Without elite bat-to-ball skills in his back pocket, he’s in challenging counts too often to be consistently productive.

What’s different in 2026? In short, he’s swinging more. His overall swing percentage is up from 37.7% to 44.4%. That's a level at which he's defending the strike zone much more robustly. Rodríguez is swinging at pitches in the zone around 10% more in the early going in 2026. While that has resulted in a higher chase percentage (17.3% in 2025; 23.9% in 2026), this is a trade worth making, because it was such an absurdly low mark to begin with. If Rodríguez carries his current increased chase rate into the majors, it’d still be a top-15 mark in the league. 

What’s the headline here? Rodríguez is chasing more, but the prize is more of that incredible bat speed directed at hittable pitches earlier in counts. You can see this represented below, with his average exit velocities represented by count. In 2026, we see a greater swath of red earlier in counts. You miss 100% of the swings you don’t take, I guess.

2026 EV by count.png

How does Rodríguez force himself into the Twins lineup, and at whose expense? That’s a fun discussion, but one for another day. What’s clear is that early in 2026, he’s making the adjustments needed for his specific skillset to thrive in the majors—not just in Triple-A.


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Posted

I hate to point out that I have been saying for 18 months that Wallner is not a MLB player, at minimum a MLB level outfielder. The stats say it all, throw in his awful defense and it’s borderline criminal to have him on the 26 man roster. Looks like there’s a legit replacement… it’s time to start making changes to players that aren’t helping the team and are actually detrimental to, which Wallner has been for some time.

 

Posted
12 minutes ago, hitterscount said:

I hate to point out that I have been saying for 18 months that Wallner is not a MLB player, minimal a MLB level outfielder. The stats say it all, throw in his awful defense and it’s borderline criminal to have him on the 26 man roster. Looks like there’s a legit replacement… it’s time to start making changes to players that aren’t helping the team and are actually detrimental to, which Wallner has been for some time.

 

Do 't be too proud that you pronounced Wallner a non-MLB player 18 months ago.  Many others did also.  Despite that, I would like to see Walleye and ERod switch places.

Posted
54 minutes ago, FlyingFinn said:

If Rodriguez is about here and surely Jenkins will be coming at some point, why do we have Roden again? With Buxton, we have the outfield covered and Austin Martin complements the lefties (Jenkins and Rodriguez).

Quote

 

Jenkins is  a long, long way from being a Triple success much less coming up to the Biggs.

Rodriguez will probably come up some time much later this year, to see if his glove is good enough, and his K rate does not turn him into another Wallner.

All the bring the kids up hype that saturates this site, is like a scratched record whose wonder kids play as well as a scratched record.

Eventually, hopefully Jenkins is the real deal, as he has a very good glove, but all the rest seem to be the same old, same old , not better and some worse.

Posted
40 minutes ago, RpR said:

Jenkins is  a long, long way from being a Triple success much less coming up to the Biggs.

Rodriguez will probably come up some time much later this year, to see if his glove is good enough, and his K rate does not turn him into another Wallner.

All the bring the kids up hype that saturates this site, is like a scratched record whose wonder kids play as well as a scratched record.

Eventually, hopefully Jenkins is the real deal, as he has a very good glove, but all the rest seem to be the same old, same old , not better and some worse.

A brief reminder to alert you that every single baseball player ever was once a rookie and all of them had a first game. Don't worry, everything will be ok. It's no big deal. It's just life.

Posted

I've been impressed with Rodriguez, like everyone else, for what he's done so far, and the potential he's shown. I was also really impressed by an interview he gave in ST when he basically stated he knew what he needed to work on still. Paraphrasing him, he basically acknowledged his #1 issue to overcome was recognizing AAA and ML pitchers had better stuff/control, and he understood he couldn't be as patient as he had been before. That sometimes the best pitch he was going to get might be early in the count and he was going to have to learn to be more aggressive early at times, instead of being ultra patient. (Something that has been a concern).

Recognizing something, but actually changing that something, are very different things. And I don't know how much of his new stance, and new approach are regulated to HIM or coaching, or a combination of BOTH. 

BUT, after a good and HEALTHY Winter League, brief, and a good ST, he's off to a hell of a good 2026 at AAA and has one of the best batting AVG he's ever had, while still maintaining a great OB% and not losing power. 

I DON'T like the way the Twins roster is set. For one thing, the quasi platoon of Martin and Larnach has been highly productive, even though Larnach has been shielded and somewhat unused due to the ridiculous number of LHP the Twins have seen to open the season's first month. 

But I'm not sure where Rodriguez FITS at this moment when Larnach is off to his best start, and Bell has been the best overall bat in the lineup. There are complaints about Wallner, but he had a great ST, and he's played almost every day, including facing a plethora of LHP, so it's no wonder his numbers are down currently. Give the Twins, and Wallner, a decent,  normal run against RHP and we might see some sudden improvement in production from Wallner. And MAYBE Larnach continues his solid start to the season and we all have egg on our face for believing he shouldn't have been brought back.

But here's the crux of it. If Rodriguez were a Brewer, Guardian, or Ray, he probably would have opened the season with the parent club. They would have said; "the hell with it, give the kid the road he needs, and we'll live with some ups and downs because he's super talented and part of our future".

Those teams would have already moved Larnach for SOMETHING to free up payroll, bring SOMETHING back, or maybe not even offered him a contract at all.

And for the UPTEENTH time, that doesn't mean Larnach is a bad ballplayer. There's teams, maybe the Astros, that would love to have a cheap, productive, LH DH, part time corner OF like Larnach that is relatively cheap. Instead, while being solid so far in 2026, we're debating the value of Outman and Clemens as viable players for a team that is proving to be at least competitive thus far, and WONDERING how to FIT top prospects in to the lineup.

This is ridiculous!

The rotation SEEMED to withstand the tremendous loss of Lopez with the rise of Bradley and Abel. Sim is struggling a bit lately, but it's early and might be health related. Ober has been surprisingly solid his last few turns because he's so damn smart. HOPEFULLY we can find a decent option to replace Abel on the temporary. 

But why can't we find room on a limited 13 player roster for a TOP prospect who is doing everything we want him to do to at least improve the lineup? For now, and the future.

Posted

Rodriguez has really been on a tear over his last 5 games, but I'm not sure how projectable a 35% BB rate is. Honestly, the Twins are out of time with him. It'd be a good value to get Emma some regular plate appearances at the MLB level soon.

While I'm not as down on Wallner as others, he sure hasn't hit well at all through his first 20 games. He's totally outmatched at the plate right now. It's like he's guessing at pitches rather than reading them. Outman should be DFA'd, Wallner's honestly earning a demotion for Emma to be called up to play RF. Can't imagine the Twins are going to show more than about 10 additional games of patience with him.

image.png.b88d9fa922bac844c02c3cc06bb2343f.png

 

Posted
4 hours ago, FlyingFinn said:

If Rodriguez is about here and surely Jenkins will be coming at some point, why do we have Roden again? With Buxton, we have the outfield covered and Austin Martin complements the lefties (Jenkins and Rodriguez).

Roden's OPS is 5 points below Rodriguez and almost 400 points higher than Jenkins.  Roden and Rodriguez should be up.  Outman out and Wallner to AAA to get his act together.

Posted
13 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I'd truly rather have him on the team more than any of Outman, Wallner or Larnach. Doesn't have to happen today, but he is ready and he will be fun to watch for sure.

Great writing as always @Jamie Cameron!

Gotta ask, replace Larnach while keeping Outman & Wallner? ……..seems there is probably a specific order on who should be replaced. ……. -.300 WAR ….. -.700WAR ….. .300WAR respectively.

Posted
9 hours ago, DocBauer said:

I've been impressed with Rodriguez, like everyone else, for what he's done so far, and the potential he's shown. I was also really impressed by an interview he gave in ST when he basically stated he knew what he needed to work on still. Paraphrasing him, he basically acknowledged his #1 issue to overcome was recognizing AAA and ML pitchers had better stuff/control, and he understood he couldn't be as patient as he had been before. That sometimes the best pitch he was going to get might be early in the count and he was going to have to learn to be more aggressive early at times, instead of being ultra patient. (Something that has been a concern).

Recognizing something, but actually changing that something, are very different things. And I don't know how much of his new stance, and new approach are regulated to HIM or coaching, or a combination of BOTH. 

BUT, after a good and HEALTHY Winter League, brief, and a good ST, he's off to a hell of a good 2026 at AAA and has one of the best batting AVG he's ever had, while still maintaining a great OB% and not losing power. 

I DON'T like the way the Twins roster is set. For one thing, the quasi platoon of Martin and Larnach has been highly productive, even though Larnach has been shielded and somewhat unused due to the ridiculous number of LHP the Twins have seen to open the season's first month. 

But I'm not sure where Rodriguez FITS at this moment when Larnach is off to his best start, and Bell has been the best overall bat in the lineup. There are complaints about Wallner, but he had a great ST, and he's played almost every day, including facing a plethora of LHP, so it's no wonder his numbers are down currently. Give the Twins, and Wallner, a decent,  normal run against RHP and we might see some sudden improvement in production from Wallner. And MAYBE Larnach continues his solid start to the season and we all have egg on our face for believing he shouldn't have been brought back.

But here's the crux of it. If Rodriguez were a Brewer, Guardian, or Ray, he probably would have opened the season with the parent club. They would have said; "the hell with it, give the kid the road he needs, and we'll live with some ups and downs because he's super talented and part of our future".

Those teams would have already moved Larnach for SOMETHING to free up payroll, bring SOMETHING back, or maybe not even offered him a contract at all.

And for the UPTEENTH time, that doesn't mean Larnach is a bad ballplayer. There's teams, maybe the Astros, that would love to have a cheap, productive, LH DH, part time corner OF like Larnach that is relatively cheap. Instead, while being solid so far in 2026, we're debating the value of Outman and Clemens as viable players for a team that is proving to be at least competitive thus far, and WONDERING how to FIT top prospects in to the lineup.

This is ridiculous!

The rotation SEEMED to withstand the tremendous loss of Lopez with the rise of Bradley and Abel. Sim is struggling a bit lately, but it's early and might be health related. Ober has been surprisingly solid his last few turns because he's so damn smart. HOPEFULLY we can find a decent option to replace Abel on the temporary. 

But why can't we find room on a limited 13 player roster for a TOP prospect who is doing everything we want him to do to at least improve the lineup? For now, and the future.

Wallner has 34 AB’s v. LH pitching, I agree - too many for him, and his BA is .147

Wallner has 38 AB’s v. RH pitching, and I would say that’s enough for him, and his BA is .211

Wallner has a -.700 WAR & Larnach has a .300 WAR through 22 games (while Larnach’s use has been “shielding” him)

I would take limited use of Larnach and a 2.5 WAR for the season!

Rodriguez & Roden should both be elevated to the SHOW, displacing Outman & Wallner. Rodriguez for a DFA’d Outman & then a few days later, Roden for an Optioned Wallner (assuming his production doesn’t elevate profoundly).

Posted
11 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

get him here.  trade Wallner or Larnach for a right handed compliment for when we don't want to have both Rodriguez and Jenkins face a tough lefty.

I appreciate the thought of wanting change, but trading Wallner for anything of value is a storyline off Fantasy Island …… Larnach has value to the Twins & would bring value to another contender for “some” return.

Posted
9 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Gotta ask, replace Larnach while keeping Outman & Wallner? ……..seems there is probably a specific order on who should be replaced. ……. -.300 WAR ….. -.700WAR ….. .300WAR respectively.

5 minutes ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Wallner is tied for second in the majors for most strikeouts by a batter at 34. The leader has 36.

Under 50 PA is absolutely nothing. 100 PA is barely anything. Under 200 PA isn't a decent sample.

First off, Larnach isn't going to continue to hit like this. He won't continue to walk 30% of the time, and a lot of those walks will turn into Ks. He's a league average hitter if he's not protected from lefties and he's a DH in year 2 of arbitration. Like 99% of fans on this site were exacerbated he was tendered a contract last year. Larnach isn't part of the Twins' future. At his absolute peak, he's a 1.5 WAR 65% of the time player.

Wallner could be. There has yet to be a season where Wallner's worst at the plate isn't as good as Larnach's best, even if Wallner isn't shielded from lefties like Larnach usually is. 

Emma and Roden were both basically below average hitters before getting ahold of Philadelphia's AAA pitching staff this past week. I realize they've had 5 good games now so it's time to start the immediate roster shuffle and all..

 

Posted
Just now, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Wallner also has the worst Defensive Runs Saved metric in the majors currently. Why is he still playing every day and why is he not in AAA or AA?

Yes, but he's an average defender by the metric used by fangraphs (outs above average). Guess he's solid in the field... or defensive metrics are utterly worthless at this same size.

Posted
1 minute ago, bean5302 said:

Under 50 PA is absolutely nothing. 100 PA is barely anything. Under 200 PA isn't a decent sample.

First off, Larnach isn't going to continue to hit like this. He won't continue to walk 30% of the time, and a lot of those walks will turn into Ks. He's a league average hitter if he's not protected from lefties and he's a DH in year 2 of arbitration. Like 99% of fans on this site were exacerbated he was tendered a contract last year. Larnach isn't part of the Twins' future. At his absolute peak, he's a 1.5 WAR 65% of the time player.

Wallner could be. There has yet to be a season where Wallner's worst at the plate isn't as good as Larnach's best, even if Wallner isn't shielded from lefties like Larnach usually is. 

Emma and Roden were both basically below average hitters before getting ahold of Philadelphia's AAA pitching staff this past week. I realize they've had 5 good games now so it's time to start the immediate roster shuffle and all..

 

Beans, What is your comment about Wallner having the lowest Defensive Runs Saved rating in the entire major leagues so far this year?

Posted
2 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Yes, but he's an average defender by the metric used by fangraphs (outs above average). Guess he's solid in the field... or defensive metrics are utterly worthless at this same size.

Depends on which metric one choses to think tells the true picture. I don't know enough about these fielding metrics to know which is more indicative of Wallner's fielding value. However my eye test shows Wallner is a slow runner, who is even slower to get started running. 

Posted

How does Rodríguez force himself into the Twins lineup, and at whose expense? That’s a fun discussion, but one for another day.

Ha! I think you are going to get the discussion here and now! But back to the article, that was a very helpful and informative analysis of the changes that Rodriguez has made this season, ones that I wouldn't notice as an ordinary fan. Good stuff, Jamie! And yes, I hope Rodriguez will find the opportunity to impress us on the big league club sometime very soon. 

Posted
42 minutes ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Beans, What is your comment about Wallner having the lowest Defensive Runs Saved rating in the entire major leagues so far this year?

I think he's referring to Baseball Info Solutions Defensive Runs Saved Above Average. BBref has Wallner at -7, oops it just changed (lol, they must be updating data), his Rdrs is -5, tied for the worst in MLB at ANY position, with Brooks Lee.

Posted
3 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Under 50 PA is absolutely nothing. 100 PA is barely anything. Under 200 PA isn't a decent sample.

First off, Larnach isn't going to continue to hit like this. He won't continue to walk 30% of the time, and a lot of those walks will turn into Ks. He's a league average hitter if he's not protected from lefties and he's a DH in year 2 of arbitration. Like 99% of fans on this site were exacerbated he was tendered a contract last year. Larnach isn't part of the Twins' future. At his absolute peak, he's a 1.5 WAR 65% of the time player.

Wallner could be. There has yet to be a season where Wallner's worst at the plate isn't as good as Larnach's best, even if Wallner isn't shielded from lefties like Larnach usually is. 

Emma and Roden were both basically below average hitters before getting ahold of Philadelphia's AAA pitching staff this past week. I realize they've had 5 good games now so it's time to start the immediate roster shuffle and all..

 

How can you defend a guy that MOST here have said, “deserves more AB’s v. LH pitching” and he does nothing (in any season) to show this makes sense. I’m not saying that he is being used to his strengths ….. not really clear on what they may be at this point?

Paralleling your point, if Matt Wallner hits 2HR and only strikes out 3 times in the next series, most here would laud his “coming along”, yet it would only be performance over 3 games ………. just like Roden & Emma in their latest series. Neither of those guys will bring negative WAR to the outfield - at a minimum.

EVERYONE wants Wallner to be successful. His M.O., in his 2 successful seasons of ‘23 & ‘24, was time spent in St Paul to work things out and get his mind/approach right. He doesn’t have to be banished from the Team but he needs to get it together for a few weeks.

Larnach is hitting to a level of what is his norm, v. RH pitching. Last year he was “exposed” v. LH pitching as he was the guy “allowed to face LH” …….118 AB’s v. LH pitching (approaching 25% of AB’s) and he sucked against them & it pulled his overall numbers into “why would Team tender him?” range.

Larnach’s current K rate is 15% & Wallner’s is 42%. Wallner, formerly an OBP guy is currently at .272 & Larnach is at .468. Granted, Larnach will probably drop to .360 (K @ 22%) …….remove Wallner’s LH pitcher AB’s and he’s hitting .211 with a .302 OBP (K @ 38% for season). WALLNER has a Slug% of .333 - this is his biggest Red Flag, in the short term, to me.

Bringing up WAR at this point seems odd…… Wallner at -.700 & Larnach at .300, 22 games in, 13.6% of season. Larnach projects to 2.2 WAR and Wallner projects to -5.15 WAR. Obviously, this could (probably will) shift but the glaring difference is my point.

Wallner’s splits aren’t the ONLY reason to look at someone different. OUTMAN is brutal ….. his 2 hits came in one game. Maybe he’ll get on a roll……..can’t imagine how anyone might actually believe this will happen.

I am not a “let’s promote” because I’m bored or curious  or “xyz deserves a chance” guy. Players should force their way on to the roster with performance. Sometimes, players force their way off the roster due to performance.

I’d like the Team represent themselves as best they can with both near term & long term blended into the decisions…….Outman and (current version) Wallner don’t fit that in my view.

Posted
1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

Under 50 PA is absolutely nothing. 100 PA is barely anything. Under 200 PA isn't a decent sample.

First off, Larnach isn't going to continue to hit like this. He won't continue to walk 30% of the time, and a lot of those walks will turn into Ks. He's a league average hitter if he's not protected from lefties and he's a DH in year 2 of arbitration. Like 99% of fans on this site were exacerbated he was tendered a contract last year. Larnach isn't part of the Twins' future. At his absolute peak, he's a 1.5 WAR 65% of the time player.

Wallner could be. There has yet to be a season where Wallner's worst at the plate isn't as good as Larnach's best, even if Wallner isn't shielded from lefties like Larnach usually is. 

Emma and Roden were both basically below average hitters before getting ahold of Philadelphia's AAA pitching staff this past week. I realize they've had 5 good games now so it's time to start the immediate roster shuffle and all..

 

My point to Cory was that I would certainly DFA Outman, or Option Wallner before I would displace Larnach. I was questioning why he seemed to blend them together, at this point.

Larnach, v. RH pitching is a .775 OPS guy at this point …….maybe 110 OPS+. (15 HR’s) He won’t continue to walk at his current rate but he seems better against the one side, OBP from current .468 down to probable .360 ……… BA of .260. Strikeout rate will increase from 15% to something in the low 20’s………..basically, a decent value for a platoon in LF occasionally & principally, a DH …….. for $4.5M/yr.

I don’t understand the general fandom angst.

Posted
6 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

From 2023-2025 Wallner is the 7th best hitting outfielder in the entire game with 600+ PAs. Just behind Mookie Betts and a few spots ahead of Byron Buxton.

Ditching him after 82 PA is too premature to be rational. 

 

Continuing to let him look like a fool, while striking out at a 42% rate seems every bit as irrational. His “success” was in ‘23 & ‘24 and in both instances he was sent back to St Paul to work on himself. In ‘24, he went down on April 16th and came back & WAS successful from July forward. Why is this such a terrible idea for a guy with options?

What is Wallner’s status in the game amongst Outfielders since the beginning of ‘25? That’s 474 PA’s.

Also, Eddie Julien had a nice 2023 as well.

 

Posted
58 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

From 2023-2025 Wallner is the 7th best hitting outfielder in the entire game with 600+ PAs. Just behind Mookie Betts and a few spots ahead of Byron Buxton.

Ditching him after 82 PA is too premature to be rational. 

 

What in he world led you to state that Wallner was the 7th best hitting outfielder in the entire game from 2023-2025.  I'm not doubting your veracity, I just am interested on what statistics you used to form that unique opinion?

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