The Twins' Starting Rotation is Carrying a Heavy Load, for Good Reasons

[Nate Palmer]

Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images

Just as everyone drew it up at the beginning of the season, the Minnesota Twins are battling the Cleveland Guardians not only for the top spot in the American League, but also for second place for innings pitched by starters in the American League. The rotation’s usage is a far cry from what had been one of the biggest grievances hurled at former skipper Rocco Baldelli: a quick hook on starters. What has changed to bring the Twins' starting rotation into such a different place from a usage standpoint? 

Last season, the Twins finished 13th in the AL for innings from starting pitchers; they only topped the Athletics and the White Sox. Two seasons ago, the Twins were seventh—much better than 13th, but still quite a way from that second-place spot they currently sit in after taking the series from the Boston Red Sox. It's not hard to identify the main reason why this year's team has hewed closer to the blueprint of a club built around a strong starting rotation: solid performance. The unproven starters the team turned to after López went down, Taj Bradley, and Mick Abel, have been nothing short of remarkable to start the season. 

Other factors have also contributed to the choice to let starters work deeper. The offense has actually been providing run support. If we take, for instance, Bailey Ober’s outing against the Red Sox on Monday evening, he gave up four runs over six innings. Three of those runs came somewhat early in the game during the third inning. Since the Twins already had 11 runs on the board, though, there wasn’t even a thought of getting Ober out of the game that early. Instead, Derek Shelton could simply let Ober battle through and cover a few more innings. Over the last two seasons, Baldelli frequently admitted that the flow of the game forced him to remove starters before he'd have ideally done so.

Ober’s recent outing is really the only example that fits that mold exactly, but it isn’t the only way run support helps out the rotation. What has been a more regular occurrence is good run support paired with good pitching performances. In that scenario, pitchers likely have a psychological edge, allowing them to pitch more freely. They get some extra time to recover and refresh themselves while the offense goes to work, and when they're on the mound, there's more margin for error and less anxiety.

Every pitch isn't a do-or-die situation like it has been for the Twins for long stretches in recent seasons, when the offense struggled to produce. We especially saw this last season, when what was supposed to be a dominant bullpen always had to pitch with the precision of a surgeon's scalpel in order to carry the Twins to a win, because there was little to no offense behind them.  

If this group were underperforming, of course, a strong offense wouldn't be enough to have them eating this many innings. Joe Ryan continues to be Joe Ryan, somewhat vulnerable to external influences but immensely talented and competitive. Bradley is doing his best to impersonate Ryan’s first full season with the Twins, quickly cementing himself as the number two starter in the rotation. He has a longer track record and a sturdier build than Ryan had back then, though, and can be trusted to work a bit deeper than Ryan could be. Abel is dealing right now, and Ober, despite his decreased velocity, is giving the team competitive outings and keeping them in it. Simeon Woods Richardson is the closest of the bunch to drawing concern, but his track record gives him some leeway. The success of the rest of the group gives him even more.

Obviously, the team also lacks the deep, high-powered bullpen Baldelli had over the last few years. That could be a motivating factor in Shelton's decision to allow longer starts. Regardless of the motivation, until there is a more solidified path through the pen, getting that extra inning or two from a starter will pay dividends for the club. The volume they've provided has shielded Shelton and his team from the roster's weaknesses. For as long as he can afford to do so, we're likely to see Shelton keep trusting his starters, and letting them get deeper into games than we've seen in the past.

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[Linus]

Certainly a lack of close games is playing into this but I appreciate Sheldon’s less rigid approach. Rocco always wanted his relievers to start an inning whereas Shelton will let them get an extra out or two and bring the reliever in against the best possible matchup. If you are saving close to an appearance per game that will add up over time. 

[Blyleven2011]

I'm all for the starting pitcher going extra innings  , if he's reeling and in complete control and a low pitch count, a shut out would be nice to see  ...

They're the best athletes on the field  ...

[miller761]

Love how Shelton uses his bullpen. Relievers coming back out for an extra out or inning. 

 

[mikelink45]

I like this - but Ober and SWR are both concerns.  A few more starts and they need to turn things around, but who takes their places?  Will Morris come out of the BP?  Then what? Klein and Mathews are not ready.  Is Connor Prielipp ready?

[bean5302]

Nothing to see here. Twins are 11th in MLB in starter innings pitched per game at 5.27 They've played more games than most teams so they have more innings pitched. Philadelphia is 14th at 5.19. Seattle is number 1, averaging 5.95. 

[The Great Hambino]

It's important for the rotation to steal innings and outs from the bullpen whenever they can. 

You don't get to plan when you're inevitably going to get hit with back-to-back short starts that strain the bullpen.  You can't pass up opportunities to balance that ledger.  Especially when your bullpen is highly suspect

[Richie the Rally Goat]

The Twins IP by SP ranked 4th in 2023. I think Rocco’s SP usage had more to do with how good the rotation is vs how good the bullpen is.

same with Shelton, that bullpen sucks, and the starters have been good. The more the starters pitch, the less the bullpen does.

it would not shock me at all to see their IP by the rotation ranking drop as the season progresses, injuries will thin the ranks further.

[Parfigliano]

4 hours ago, Linus said:

Certainly a lack of close games is playing into this but I appreciate Sheldon’s less rigid approach. Rocco always wanted his relievers to start an inning whereas Shelton will let them get an extra out or two and bring the reliever in against the best possible matchup. If you are saving close to an appearance per game that will add up over time. 

Shelton is a far better manager then Rocco.

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, The Great Hambino said:

It's important for the rotation to steal innings and outs from the bullpen whenever they can. 

You don't get to plan when you're inevitably going to get hit with back-to-back short starts that strain the bullpen.  You can't pass up opportunities to balance that ledger.  Especially when your bullpen is highly suspect

Something Rocco never understood.

[nclahammer]

The Minnesota Twins starting pitching has been a "most pleasant" surprise at this point in the season.

[Bangkok Twins Fan]

16 minutes ago, nclahammer said:

The Minnesota Twins starting pitching has been a "most pleasant" surprise at this point in the season.

For sure, plus the bullpen has been better than expected ... so far.

[Bangkok Twins Fan]

7 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

Shelton is a far better manager then Rocco.

I  don't want to proclaim him a "better" manager at this point, but I really like what Shelton is doing so far. I like his management style, at least as far as I can tell from a fan's point of view. 

[mickster]

10 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

I like this - but Ober and SWR are both concerns.  A few more starts and they need to turn things around, but who takes their places?  Will Morris come out of the BP?  Then what? Klein and Mathews are not ready.  Is Connor Prielipp ready?

If they struggle to a large extent - Giolito could be an option.  Depends on cost and options.   I think both Ober and SWR need more opportunities though

[dxpavelka]

AND Connor Prielipp is waiting in St. Paul and Andrew Morris is waiting in the bullpen. Hopefully Zebby gets right, Kendry Rojas gets stretched out and Festa gets healthy.  

[thelanges5]

Was crushed when Pablo went down but the rotation has been a strength. Abel and SWR have both had 2 good games and 2 clunkers. Abel is trending in the better direction though. My biggest question is how long can Ober keep this up?

Morris and Prielipp seem to be the next in line based on performance. Matthews has been disappointing. 

[laloesch]

Honestly, i like Shelton's approach with the starting rotation.  IT's still early on but it looks like he prefers to let the starters go longer if they are rolling well and not laboring with high pitch counts unlike Baldelli who yanked his starters consistently even if they were doing well in an outing.  

[laloesch]

43 minutes ago, dxpavelka said:

AND Connor Prielipp is waiting in St. Paul and Andrew Morris is waiting in the bullpen. Hopefully Zebby gets right, Kendry Rojas gets stretched out and Festa gets healthy.  

yeah fingers crossed Prielipp keeps rolling in St. Paul.  He's got dynamic stuff as a starter.  I still don't think Ober is gonna be in the rotation long term.  He's doing okay at the moment, but his days are numbered in my opinion.

[Trov]

I think there are a few reasons for the change from last couple years.  One, the runs being scored early for the Twins make it easier to allow a starter to stay out there and work through some hard innings, something I am a fan of as well.  Two, our best pitchers are our starters and we have a weak pen, on paper at least, and you cannot lean on them night after night.  The last 2 years, our pen was considered a strong pen, with 3 or 4 guys that you could count on 1 inning each of good pitching.  That made it easier to go tot he pen early because you could patch it together easier.  Now, not so much.

There is also a difference in Shelton and Rocco.  Rocco looked at the analytics and always made decisions based on them, and rarely looked at the game situation, in my opinion.  He would say well pitcher may be only at 80 pitches, but he pitched 5 innings no runs and went through rotation full 2 times already, and it is a close game, so I need to pull the starter because the hitters will have an increased likelihood of getting a hit.  I also want the pen guy to start an inning because the decreases the chance of runs being scored too.  So add it all up, pull the starter now. Rocco would managed like a math guy, saying this move gives me 2% more chance of winning game based on history, so lets make it.

Shelton seems a little more old school, even going out to talk to a starter who had runners on with 2 outs and left him in to get out of the inning.  Rocco would have never.  Time will tell if Shelton continues his ways and if he wins or if it starts blowing up in his face.

[mark allen]

bull pen has been pretty good so far. We have only two losses so far when game was tied or we were ahead when bulls pen took over.

[Bangkok Twins Fan]

28 minutes ago, laloesch said:

Honestly, i like Shelton's approach with the starting rotation.  IT's still early on but it looks like he prefers to let the starters go longer if they are rolling well and not laboring with high pitch counts unlike Baldelli who yanked his starters consistently even if they were doing well in an outing.  

I like Shelton's approach so far too. Maybe some of the changes are subtle, but just the fact that he is giving the starters a longer leash (okay, the bullpen may not inspire much confidence yet) is nice to see. It's only mid-April, but I can't complain about much of anything that he's done, or not done.  

[jmlease1]

4 hours ago, Trov said:

I think there are a few reasons for the change from last couple years.  One, the runs being scored early for the Twins make it easier to allow a starter to stay out there and work through some hard innings, something I am a fan of as well.  Two, our best pitchers are our starters and we have a weak pen, on paper at least, and you cannot lean on them night after night.  The last 2 years, our pen was considered a strong pen, with 3 or 4 guys that you could count on 1 inning each of good pitching.  That made it easier to go tot he pen early because you could patch it together easier.  Now, not so much.

There is also a difference in Shelton and Rocco.  Rocco looked at the analytics and always made decisions based on them, and rarely looked at the game situation, in my opinion.  He would say well pitcher may be only at 80 pitches, but he pitched 5 innings no runs and went through rotation full 2 times already, and it is a close game, so I need to pull the starter because the hitters will have an increased likelihood of getting a hit.  I also want the pen guy to start an inning because the decreases the chance of runs being scored too.  So add it all up, pull the starter now. Rocco would managed like a math guy, saying this move gives me 2% more chance of winning game based on history, so lets make it.

Shelton seems a little more old school, even going out to talk to a starter who had runners on with 2 outs and left him in to get out of the inning.  Rocco would have never.  Time will tell if Shelton continues his ways and if he wins or if it starts blowing up in his face.

There's simply not enough evidence to show that Shelton is all that different from Rocco in handling the rotation. Especially since Pete Maki is still here and is very likely the driving force on how the starters are being used.

Rocco got a reputation for being a quick hook when he was pulling crappy starters like Chris Archer and Dylan Bundy, and for the most part have looked to protect someone like SWR. But they weren't dogmatic about it across the staff. When they had the horses, they let guys go deeper. (it's notable that Sonny Gray pitched more innings for the Twins in 2023 than he had in years, and more than he's pitched since, but you still hear people around this joint complain that Rocco drove Gray away with how poorly we supposedly treated him as a starter) Pablo hit career highs for innings in a season with the Twins, and hasn't thrown a single pitch for Shelton.

Reality is right now the Twins have a pretty good looking starting rotation and a lot of limitations (I'm being charitable here) in the bullpen. That's probably driving the decision-making more than anything philosophical that people have pre-determined about Rocco v Shelton. They've had a reasonable pairing of offense and pitching as well, which simplifies some of it.

It does look like they're more flexible this season on when relievers enter and exit games, which may be about matchups and a need to adhere to it more, or it could also be Hawkins influence on the staff as well. Probably too soon to tell; but it would be interesting to see if there's a real uptick in how often a reliever comes in mid-inning and/or carries over to the next from this year to last.