A Complicated Legacy Awaits the Twins with the Third Overall Pick

[Cody Christie]

Image courtesy of © Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images

The MLB Draft Lottery delivered an early holiday gift to the Twins at last week’s Winter Meetings when the club secured the third overall pick. It is the organization’s highest draft position since 2017 and one that should offer the chance to add an impact talent to a farm system already trending upward.

Still, ending up in the third spot comes with a history that is anything but straightforward. Depending on the year, the third pick has produced Hall of Famers, perennial All-Stars, fringe big leaguers, and players who never quite lived up to the expectations placed on them.

That is the challenge the Twins now face. The third overall pick can transform a franchise, but its legacy also provides a reminder that even the most carefully managed scouting departments can miss. Minnesota has reaped both ends of that spectrum over its history with the pick and now finds itself hoping that this year’s draft can tie the story together in a much more satisfying way.

Some of the best selections ever made from the third spot came long before the modern scouting and analytics era. The Brewers struck gold twice in the 1970s by drafting Robin Yount and Paul Molitor. Both players carved out Hall of Fame careers while accumulating more than 75 rWAR apiece, setting standards that have towered over every other third overall pick for nearly five decades. The 2000s produced more star talent with Evan Longoria in 2006 and Manny Machado in 2010. Machado’s 61.7 rWAR already puts him among the elite at the position, and he still has time to climb higher before his career closes.

More recently, the third overall pick has been attached to high ceilings and heavy risk. Detroit selected prep outfielder Max Clark in 2023, a player many evaluators believe could be a fast mover once he gets deeper into pro ball. He is already a consensus top-50 prospect and could debut as early as 2026.

The Rangers went in a very different direction with Kumar Rocker in 2022 after his winding path from Vanderbilt to independent ball to the first round. It was a surprise pick at number three that changed the rest of that first round. Rocker still flashed top 50 potential entering last season, but has struggled to find sustained success in the majors. Last season, he had a 4.88 FIP and a 19.5 K%.

Miami hoped Max Meyer, a Minnesota Golden Gopher legend, would become a rotation anchor after taking him third overall in 2020. Injuries and inconsistency have slowed his ascent, leaving his long-term role in MLB unsettled. In 2025, he posted a 4.47 FIP with a 23.9 K%.

The Twins have their own complicated history with the third overall pick, and both of their selections arrived with expectations that were never fulfilled. Minnesota believed Willie Banks could become a fixture in the rotation after grabbing him in 1987. Instead, he bounced around the league and contributed only 1.0 rWAR in 85 career appearances. Dave McCarty followed in 1991 and brought an enticing college power bat, with evaluators projecting a quick rise. He reached the majors but never developed into the middle-of-the-order presence the Twins hoped for, producing negative value during his time in Minnesota (-3.2 rWAR) despite playing parts of 11 seasons in the majors.

As Jamie Cameron wrote, the Twins have some intriguing options that will be available with the third overall pick next July. College shortstop Justin Lebron is the frontrunner for the third pick. Last season, he posted a 127 wRC+ for Alabama. Other college options include Georgia Tech outfielder Drew Burress, Virginia outfielder A.J. Gracia, and Coastal Carolina right-handed pitcher Cameron Flukey .  However, it’s important to note that a lot can happen during the spring season for college and high school players.

There is at least one comforting trend. In both years, when the Twins held the third overall pick, the franchise went on to win the World Series. It may be a coincidence, but with a premium draft selection now secured and a front office that has seen some recent draft success stories, Minnesota has a chance to reshape the story around the third pick. History may be complicated, but the Twins will gladly accept the opportunity to add the next great chapter.

What stands out about the history of the third overall pick? Leave a comment and start the discussion. 

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[thelanges5]

Twins could go with a prep bat like they did when they selected Walker Jenkins. 

Jacob Lombard is an intriguing pick. His dad played in the MLB and his brother is a top prospect with the Yankees. He’s got speed, a RH bat, and elite defense. 

[DJL44]

6 minutes ago, thelanges5 said:

Twins could go with a prep bat like they did when they selected Walker Jenkins. 

Jacob Lombard is an intriguing pick. His dad played in the MLB and his brother is a top prospect with the Yankees. He’s got speed, a RH bat, and elite defense. 

Sounds like Nick Gordon.

[TNtwins85]

11 minutes ago, thelanges5 said:

Twins could go with a prep bat like they did when they selected Walker Jenkins. 

Jacob Lombard is an intriguing pick. His dad played in the MLB and his brother is a top prospect with the Yankees. He’s got speed, a RH bat, and elite defense. 

He’s a true boom or bust prep from what I’ve heard and seen. Do they go safe pick or shoot for the stars. I think that’s the underlying point of the article in sequence of the 3rd pick. At that point a lot of the draft changes depending on how a team goes. Some shoot for the stars and some take the safe pick. Still a lot of times it’s a coin flip regardless if it’s a college or prep, pitcher or hitter taken.

[TNtwins85]

8 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Sounds like Nick Gordon.

I believe the scouting report on Gordon was a higher floor prep. I think he accomplished exactly that for the Twins. He made it to the bigs but with little upside and didn’t have an elite tool to carry him higher. Lombard I believe has a higher ceiling but no clear floor to get him to MLB. A true boom or bust. 

[Fatbat]

Who cares who we pick, start planning the parade!! 🤣

whoever we do pick, he will undoubtedly be in the top 5 prospects in the org so we win no matter what when he gets to the bigs. 

[mikelink45]

Interesting - because baseball draft is so difficult to project compared to NFL, NHL, NBA where draft picks make immediate impact.  We pick, we wait.  Boom or Bust is five years later.

It depends so much on how we work with and develop the prospect.  As we have seen prospects come up, show promise, regress - hopefully Shelton has a coach that will bridge the gap and help the prospect to improve throughout their first three years.

I see David McCarty and I blame Tom Kelly for his lack of success.  Kelly was resentful of McCary's academic background and press clippings coming into the Twins. Kelly was great at somethings but was not good at adapting to all players - like Ortiz “I don’t think he really liked me." “I don’t know why. That was his style, not just with me. He was hard on young players. He was the kind of manager who liked veteran players. He never liked me.”

And Todd Walker  “If a person doesn’t like you as a player, you can’t really say anything about it,” Walker told the Star Tribune. “You have to go with someone who does.” https://twins-time.com/2024/07/was-former-twins-manager-tom-kelly-too-hard-on-young-players/

[NYCTK]

11 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

Interesting - because baseball draft is so difficult to project compared to NFL, NHL, NBA where draft picks make immediate impact.  We pick, we wait.  Boom or Bust is five years later.

It depends so much on how we work with and develop the prospect.  As we have seen prospects come up, show promise, regress - hopefully Shelton has a coach that will bridge the gap and help the prospect to improve throughout their first three years.

I see David McCarty and I blame Tom Kelly for his lack of success.  Kelly was resentful of McCary's academic background and press clippings coming into the Twins. Kelly was great at somethings but was not good at adapting to all players - like Ortiz “I don’t think he really liked me." “I don’t know why. That was his style, not just with me. He was hard on young players. He was the kind of manager who liked veteran players. He never liked me.”

And Todd Walker  “If a person doesn’t like you as a player, you can’t really say anything about it,” Walker told the Star Tribune. “You have to go with someone who does.” https://twins-time.com/2024/07/was-former-twins-manager-tom-kelly-too-hard-on-young-players/

Yeah, as nice as it is his team's won 2 World Series, I only know Tom Kelly as the guy with tenure that managed terrible teams and then ran a hall of fame bat out of Minnesota. 

 

[dxpavelka]

How many idiot fans would lose their mind (one way or the other) over Justin LeBron's last name?

[LambchoP]

Just get the best player available and hope our coaches don't ruin him, or lose huge amounts of time to injuries like all of our other top prospects...

[old nurse]

14 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

Yeah, as nice as it is his team's won 2 World Series, I only know Tom Kelly as the guy with tenure that managed terrible teams and then ran a hall of fame bat out of Minnesota. 

 

What hall of fame bat did Kelly run out of town?  

[old nurse]

33 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

Interesting - because baseball draft is so difficult to project compared to NFL, NHL, NBA where draft picks make immediate impact.  We pick, we wait.  Boom or Bust is five years later.

It depends so much on how we work with and develop the prospect.  As we have seen prospects come up, show promise, regress - hopefully Shelton has a coach that will bridge the gap and help the prospect to improve throughout their first three years.

I see David McCarty and I blame Tom Kelly for his lack of success.  Kelly was resentful of McCary's academic background and press clippings coming into the Twins. Kelly was great at somethings but was not good at adapting to all players - like Ortiz “I don’t think he really liked me." “I don’t know why. That was his style, not just with me. He was hard on young players. He was the kind of manager who liked veteran players. He never liked me.”

And Todd Walker  “If a person doesn’t like you as a player, you can’t really say anything about it,” Walker told the Star Tribune. “You have to go with someone who does.” https://twins-time.com/2024/07/was-former-twins-manager-tom-kelly-too-hard-on-young-players/

Kelly did not seem to suffer fools gladly.  Hunter, Span, Jones, Guzman, Koskie and some others all developed on his watch.  No problems with team guys. 

[NYCTK]

27 minutes ago, old nurse said:

What hall of fame bat did Kelly run out of town?  

David Ortiz. 

[old nurse]

4 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

David Ortiz. 

Kelly retired before Ortiz was non tendered. Try again. Terry Ryan said that he did not tender him because with his frequent injuries they did not want to lose an arbitration hearing.  

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, dxpavelka said:

How many idiot fans would lose their mind (one way or the other) over Justin LeBron's last name?

All of them

[Parfigliano]

Seems like history is telling me to bet TC for the WS win.

[Pat]

Just don't draft yet another left handed hitting outfielder.

[mikelink45]

1 hour ago, old nurse said:

Kelly did not seem to suffer fools gladly.  Hunter, Span, Jones, Guzman, Koskie and some others all developed on his watch.  No problems with team guys. 

If you read the article I linked you will see that Hunter had a hard time adjusting.  I liked Kelly, but I think he had a basic weakness with young players.

[bean5302]

Falvey has some success in the 1st round, but no truly big hits providing value to the Twins so far. There are infinite excuses, but there's a common denominator at this point. The excuses and Falvey.

2017 - Royce Lewis. Made it to the big show, had a brief spark, then weak performance. Long injury history. Jury is out on his future.

2017 - Brent Rooker. Multiple Time All Star. Optioned in favor of Trevor Larnach then traded for peanuts before he offered any value to Minnesota..

2018 - Trevor Larnach. Replacement level plus player. Just good enough to keep on the roster and play, but not really good enough to use as a starter.

2019 - Keoni Cavaco. Never made it past AA.

2019 - Matt Wallner. Slumped hard last year. Could be a great player or could be a another flame out. Delivered enough value to justify a starting lineup opportunity last year, but just barely.

2020 - Aaron Sabato. Couldn't handle AAA after flashing potential at AA for the first time in multiple go-rounds. He's unprotected and non-rostered. Doesn't look like he'll ever make an MLB appearance.

2021 - Chase Petty. Traded away to the Reds. Made a brief appearance, but had a terrible year in 2025.

2021 - Noah Miller. Unlikely to ever see MLB as he has been unable to hit well enough despite great defense.

2022 - Brooks Lee. Looks stretched as anything beyond a utility infielder.

2023 - Walker Jenkins. Huge potential, a top MLB prospect who is close. We'll have to see.

2023 - Charlee Soto. Lost 2025 to an elbow bone chip removal surgery. Still a lot of upside, but hasn't really pitched above the low minors worth noting.

2024 - Kaelyn Culpepper. Fast riser in the system, viewed as a potential SS of the future.

2024 - Kyle DeBarge. Held his own in low A as a 20 year old college bat, held his own last year in A+. Ceiling remains capped without a boost in power.

2025 - Marek Houston. College SS, totally overmatched in A+ ball. Showed no power at low A, just a really high BABIP. Not sure why the Twins promoted him so fast.

2025 - Riley Quick. College arm, didn't get into any MiLB action last year coming off a return from TJ and first year really starting at Alabama. Huge ceiling, didn't dominate in NCAA in his return. Have to see.

[bunsen82]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

Falvey has some success in the 1st round, but no truly big hits providing value to the Twins so far. There are infinite excuses, but there's a common denominator at this point. The excuses and Falvey.

2017 - Royce Lewis. Made it to the big show, had a brief spark, then weak performance. Long injury history. Jury is out on his future.

2017 - Brent Rooker. Multiple Time All Star. Optioned in favor of Trevor Larnach then traded for peanuts before he offered any value to Minnesota..

2018 - Trevor Larnach. Replacement level plus player. Just good enough to keep on the roster and play, but not really good enough to use as a starter.

2019 - Keoni Cavaco. Never made it past AA.

2019 - Matt Wallner. Slumped hard last year. Could be a great player or could be a another flame out. Delivered enough value to justify a starting lineup opportunity last year, but just barely.

2020 - Aaron Sabato. Couldn't handle AAA after flashing potential at AA for the first time in multiple go-rounds. He's unprotected and non-rostered. Doesn't look like he'll ever make an MLB appearance.

2021 - Chase Petty. Traded away to the Reds. Made a brief appearance, but had a terrible year in 2025.

2021 - Noah Miller. Unlikely to ever see MLB as he has been unable to hit well enough despite great defense.

2022 - Brooks Lee. Looks stretched as anything beyond a utility infielder.

2023 - Walker Jenkins. Huge potential, a top MLB prospect who is close. We'll have to see.

2023 - Charlee Soto. Lost 2025 to an elbow bone chip removal surgery. Still a lot of upside, but hasn't really pitched above the low minors worth noting.

2024 - Kaelyn Culpepper. Fast riser in the system, viewed as a potential SS of the future.

2024 - Kyle DeBarge. Held his own in low A as a 20 year old college bat, held his own last year in A+. Ceiling remains capped without a boost in power.

2025 - Marek Houston. College SS, totally overmatched in A+ ball. Showed no power at low A, just a really high BABIP. Not sure why the Twins promoted him so fast.

2025 - Riley Quick. College arm, didn't get into any MiLB action last year coming off a return from TJ and first year really starting at Alabama. Huge ceiling, didn't dominate in NCAA in his return. Have to see.

I want to look after 2021 and on.  The early players have had MLB success other than Cavaco.

The only top 5 pick is Jenkins and he looks by far like our best prospect and a building block for the future. Culpepper is an absolute stud especially for 21st pick.  Noah miller will be a backup SS at mlb with no bat.  Petty got us 2 years of Sonny Gray and Debarge who has some potential. Soto had a 1.9era before he was shut down. He is being criminally underrated on the prospect lists. Brooks Lee in a very weak class made it to MLB we will see if can start to adjust to the higher level.  Quick and Houston we will see where they are next year. As good as Houston looked in A ball he struggled at high A but he may have wore down as well. His defense is legit. 
 

So we have a top 3 pick in what should be a very very good draft. LeBron to me appears to be a very safe pick with solid upside. Some have minimized Lombard. He has plus plus speed and power with above average defense.  His questions are a bit of hit tool. I would say there is a better than 50/50 chance that Emerson or Cholosky is available at our pick. 

[bean5302]

27 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

I want to look after 2021 and on.  The early players have had MLB success other than Cavaco.

The only top 5 pick is Jenkins and he looks by far like our best prospect and a building block for the future. Culpepper is an absolute stud especially for 21st pick.  Noah miller will be a backup SS at mlb with no bat.  Petty got us 2 years of Sonny Gray and Debarge who has some potential. Soto had a 1.9era before he was shut down. He is being criminally underrated on the prospect lists. Brooks Lee in a very weak class made it to MLB we will see if can start to adjust to the higher level.  Quick and Houston we will see where they are next year. As good as Houston looked in A ball he struggled at high A but he may have wore down as well. His defense is legit. 
 

So we have a top 3 pick in what should be a very very good draft. LeBron to me appears to be a very safe pick with solid upside. Some have minimized Lombard. He has plus plus speed and power with above average defense.  His questions are a bit of hit tool. I would say there is a better than 50/50 chance that Emerson or Cholosky is available at our pick. 

I'm much less optimistic than you about the prospects we have, and much less willing to forgive 5 years of poor value returns.

[Linus]

Whoever they pick I want upside at that spot. No safe picks that don’t have star potential. 

[jorgenswest]

Each draft is unique. McCarty’s year was one of the worst for talent taken at the top of the draft. Two player in the top 10 picks has a career WAR over 10 and it isn’t much over 10. Two guys of ten had some regular play in the majors. Banks’ year was better with 3 of 10 having more than 10 career WAR. Still four of the top 10 never played in the majors. Griffey was gone by their pick but they could have gone with the lower ceiling and taken one of the three college pitchers that went picks 4 to 6.

Let’s hope the top 10 in this year’s draft produces more impact players than the 1987 and 1991 drafts.

[KBJ1]

We draft a dozen middle infielders every year, yet don't have a passable starting SS. Draft a 5 tool RH outfield bat for once! Aaron Judge was the last pick in the 1st round! Pick OF & stud pitchers with ALL of your picks. This SS are the best athletes crap does not pan out! The ones we have picked aren't even good middle infielders, let alone power OF bats. It's Baseball, not a decathlon,  you need specific skillsets.

[tony&rodney]

6 hours ago, TNtwins85 said:

He’s a true boom or bust prep from what I’ve heard and seen. Do they go safe pick or shoot for the stars. I think that’s the underlying point of the article in sequence of the 3rd pick. At that point a lot of the draft changes depending on how a team goes. Some shoot for the stars and some take the safe pick. Still a lot of times it’s a coin flip regardless if it’s a college or prep, pitcher or hitter taken.

You live in Coral Gables? Have you seen Lombard play?

[SaberNerd]

7 hours ago, TNtwins85 said:

I believe the scouting report on Gordon was a higher floor prep. I think he accomplished exactly that for the Twins. He made it to the bigs but with little upside and didn’t have an elite tool to carry him higher. Lombard I believe has a higher ceiling but no clear floor to get him to MLB. A true boom or bust. 

The big miss on Gordon is everyone thought he was a plus SS and he became a LF. 

[ziggy]

Let's not forget that sign ability is a factor in the decision of who to draft. None of us will know the price attatched to the prep players. 

Are the Twins still down to one scout employed?

[TNtwins85]

43 minutes ago, SaberNerd said:

The big miss on Gordon is everyone thought he was a plus SS and he became a LF. 

Right! Which looking back now knowing what I know how in the hell did we not take Trea Turner or Aaron Nola? I remember wanting them to take Nola at the time but Turner was a lock to stick at SS. 

[SaberNerd]

3 hours ago, TNtwins85 said:

Right! Which looking back now knowing what I know how in the hell did we not take Trea Turner or Aaron Nola? I remember wanting them to take Nola at the time but Turner was a lock to stick at SS. 

MLBPipeline had Gordon 5, Nola 6 and Turner 14. And our new backup catch Alex Jackson 4.

Man that HS class was bad at the top. Three HS pitching busts, including the top 2 picks

[TJSweens]

10 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

I see David McCarty and I blame Tom Kelly for his lack of success.  Kelly was resentful of McCary's academic background and press clippings coming into the Twins. Kelly was great at somethings but was not good at adapting to all players - like Ortiz “I don’t think he really liked me." “I don’t know why. That was his style, not just with me. He was hard on young players. He was the kind of manager who liked veteran players. He never liked me.”

And Todd Walker  “If a person doesn’t like you as a player, you can’t really say anything about it,” Walker told the Star Tribune. “You have to go with someone who does.” 

David McCarty was a bust. He was widely disliked in the clubhouse. He knew everything there was to know about hitting and wasn't going to listen to anyone. 

Kelly was banking on Ortiz to be the 1B in 99 and Ortiz showed up to spring training 25 pounds overweight. Later on Ortiz came out with the bs story about Kelly and Gardy not letting him hit home runs to cover his steroid infused uptick in power. 

Todd Walker didn't want to spend any time on his defense. Ironically, he had his best year under Kelly. 

The man who can't relate to younger players players helped develop Hrbek, Laudner, Gaetti, Bush, etc. in the minors. Knoblach loved him when he came up. Latroy often talks about how Kelly taught him to prepare and conduct himself like a major leaguer when he came up.