How Many Starting Pitchers Do the 2026 Minnesota Twins Need?

[Greggory Masterson]

Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images

For the past few years, the Twins have focused on accumulating starting pitching depth. The earliest form of this pattern probably dates back to 2021, when they had a full rotation of Kenta Maeda, José Berríos, Michael Pineda, JA Happ, and newly-extended Randy Dobnak, but still elected to sign journeyman Matt Shoemaker to a deal that bumped Dobnak to a long-relief, swingman role to begin the season. Lewis Thorpe and Devin Smeltzer, two lefty swingmen who had parts of two years of MLB experience, were also in the system as high-minors depth.

If you were watching the Twins at all at that time, you know how it ended. But the intention seemed clear: the club did not want to be caught without enough rotation depth, and Shoemaker was another buffer against that eventuality.

The following season, the club opened the year with six starting pitchers on the Opening Day roster: Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, Chris Paddack, Dylan Bundy, Chris Archer, and Bailey Ober. Smeltzer, Josh Winder, and Cole Sands were also in the system, though Winder and Sands were not really seen as MLB-ready starters, and neither had debuted.

In 2023, the team made the controversial decision to start Ober at Triple-A St. Paul, deferring to Gray, Ryan, Maeda, Tyler Mahle, and newcomer Pablo López to form the rotation. Exemplifying the value of starting pitcher depth, Ober was promoted in April to take Mahle’s place. Behind him on the depth chart, though, was Louis Varland, who had five promising big-league starts the year prior and was seen as one of the more exciting pitching prospects in the system.

That campaign served as the sign that the Twins were truly all-in on this strategy. They had six pitchers who looked like quality big-league starters, one more prospect seen as ready, and they even had Paddack as a potential late-season wild card if his recovery from Tommy John surgery was successful. Even so, they had to rely on a short run of starts from 35-year-old Dallas Keuchel.

They attempted to do the same in 2024, though the cupboard was a bit more bare. López, Ryan, Ober, and Paddack returned to the rotation, and Anthony DeSclafani was slated to round out a rotation filled with established starters. Varland assumed the 2023 Ober role, as a starter with major-league experience sent down to keep warm in St. Paul until the need arose—and boy did it arise quickly, as the injured DeSclafani never pitched for the Twins, and Varland made the Opening Day rotation.

Behind Varland was Simeon Woods Richardson, who had two appearances across two years, but he had impressed in spring training, and he looked ready to get some run. He got that chance after Varland struggled enough to be demoted in April. Behind Woods Richardson was David Festa, who had no big-league experience, but he did look likely to be ready at some point in 2024. Sure enough, he was called up in June.

Finally, this season, the Twins took a similar tack, beginning the season with López, Ryan, Ober, Paddack, and Woods Richardson in the rotation, leaving Festa and Zebby Matthews—two top prospects with their debuts out of the way—waiting in the wings.

In each of the past three seasons, the Twins have started the season with at least two young pitchers with MLB experience at Triple A: Ober and Varland in 2023; Varland and Woods Richardson in 2024; and Festa and Matthews in 2025.

Did you need this history lesson? Maybe. It’s relevant to the 2026 rotation picture.

Assuming no trades—which may be a big assumption, depending on your view on the status of López and Ryan, even after Ken Rosenthal's recent report—the Twins will have eight different rotation options with experience in the bigs. López, Ryan, Ober, Woods Richardson, Festa, Matthews, Taj Bradley, and Mick Abel each started at least eight games at the highest level last season.

López, Ryan, and Ober seem like locks to be in the rotation (if they’re still in the organization), and Woods Richardson is out of options, seemingly locking him into the big-league roster in some role. That leaves Festa, Matthews, Bradley, and Abel in some limbo; each has at least one minor-league option year remaining.

Will the Twins once again start the season with at least two pieces of depth at Triple A? It seems likely, given previous years. Perhaps Bradley will get the nod for the fifth rotation spot, leaving Matthews and Festa (both of whom have 25 games of big-league experience) as the first and second lines of defense against injury and ineffectiveness. This would push Abel, the secondary piece of the Jhoan Durán trade, to the third reserve spot.

That spot has generally received about five starts per season over the past five years of Twins baseball. That’s probably fewer than anyone who has any level of belief in Abel as a starter would want him to get in his age-24 season. The eighth spot has been set aside for players like Thorpe or Sands in many seasons, not a recently graduated fringe top-100 prospect.

So what do the Twins do? Do one of those eight get moved to the bullpen? Woods Richardson doesn’t profile as a bullpen candidate, and it might be hard to justify moving Bradley—acquired in a one-for-one swap for Griffin Jax—to the bullpen after three seasons in MLB rotations.

Matthews and Festa are both names that could be considered bullpen fodder, as each has shown bright flashes but struggled—which is also an argument for Bradley, I suppose. And Abel probably has the brightest flashing "RELIEVER RISK" light of them all. But will the Twins make such a decision?

Further complicating things are Connor Prielipp and Kendry Rojas, two Triple-A pitchers added to the 40-man roster last month to protect them from the Rule 5 Draft. Both seem poised to debut in the next season or two, and have upsides as high as any of the other fringe arms listed. This crowding may further push the Twins to make reliever decisions—or perhaps even trade decisions—on the 10 internal names who are on the radar at this point.

How would you handle this, though? As the offseason goes on, there will be a ton of discussion as to what the team should do with all these golldang pitchers. There's one more lesson they should have gleaned from the last few years: Letting a logjam slowly unclog itself through accident and injury risks stunting the development of some of the arms making up that jam. Proactivity matters.

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[Cory Engelhardt]

Festa to the bullpen. Possibly Zebby but we'll see. I'd listen on trading Ober personally. And after that typically most teams use at least 11 pitchers to make at least one start in a year, so the more the merrier.

[JD-TWINS]

No trades unless it’s outside the Top 3 starters and coupled with someone for a REAL bat (Red Sox - Duran type) Lopez/Ryan SWR are Top 3 to me heading into the Winter. This said, Bradley is #5 just because we gotta give it a shot for at least 6 weeks to start season.

Abel was brought in as a future starter.

Festa & Matthews were both lower picks that have developed. I try Matthews in a back end/Closer role and if Festa’s health allows, he’s at AAA with Abel and potentially a Pen arm by June?

Prielipp gets converted to Pen ASAP.

Rojas develops at AAA.

[Cory Engelhardt]

11 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

No trades unless it’s outside the Top 3 starters and coupled with someone for a REAL bat (Red Sox - Duran type) Lopez/Ryan SWR are Top 3 to me heading into the Winter. This said, Bradley is #5 just because we gotta give it a shot for at least 6 weeks to start season.

Abel was brought in as a future starter.

Festa & Matthews were both lower picks that have developed. I try Matthews in a back end/Closer role and if Festa’s health allows, he’s at AAA with Abel and potentially a Pen arm by June?

Prielipp gets converted to Pen ASAP.

Rojas develops at AAA.

No reason at all for me to move Rojas or Prielipp out of the AAA rotation to start the year. 

[Parfigliano]

I fully expect either Lopez or Ryan ( long shot both )to be traded prior to spring training and if one remains he gets traded by the trade deadline.  I also expect Festa to start '26 in the MLB bullpen.  With injuries you can never have to much pitching.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

I am in the camp you can't have too much pitching.

As it stands today, SP1-SP4 are locked. Let the fight happen for pecking order of SP5-SP7. Once things shake out, trades can be considered. Wait at least through Spring Training and see where other teams needs are.

If the organization is truly going to keep the big 4 trade options, then their best chance to be competitive this year will come from the rotation.

[1985Fan]

This may be the year they trade a pitcher for a bat. I can see Matthews and Priellip as pen options, if they can make the transition. Festa could start at AAA to see if he is healthy. SWR is a lock for rotation to start the season, with a short leash. He could pitch himself into the bullpen if he gets off to a shaky start. Based on their last starts of 2024, both Bradley and Abel deserve SP spots. With the shortage of BP arms, maybe a six man rotation of Lopez, Ryan, Ober, SWR, Bradley, and Abel. Or trade Ober if he’s healthy in ST. 

[tony&rodney]

When it comes to pitching, greed is a good thing. More, more, more. 

Among my many lame ideas for this offseason I would take some gambles. No idea how realistic the thoughts are for now. Matt Wallner and a filler like Tanner Schobel for Jared Jones is one. Wallner, Alan Roden, and choice of Marek Houston or Eduardo Beltre for Edward Cabrera is another. I would like to acquire Jordan  Lawler and am offering Bailey Ober and Kyle DeBarge for him. My swing for Leodalis De Vries offers West Sacramento some good players: Taj Bradley, Marco Raya, and Royce Lewis.

So, just playing around at the edges.

More or less agree that there is really only one spot open and that seems like it should go to Taj Bradley. The decision becomes whether the others begin in St. Paul or slide into the bullpen. Zeb Matthews and David Festa could be in the bullpen and I'm not opposed to pushing Connor Prielipp to a reliever for now. He could transition later. Remember his innings would be watched to some extent in any event. Mick Abel was once a Top 100 but well down prospect  lists when acquired last July. He had one good start. Let Abel compete for a spot in the rotation. 

Plenty of things could happen between now and next April. Too much pitching has never been a problem.

[chpettit19]

If they're not trading Lopez or Ryan then I go with the following plan come opening day:

Rotation:
Lopez
Ryan
Ober
SWR
winner of ST battle between Bradley, Abel, and Zebby

Pen:
Bradley, Abel, or Zebby for 2-4 innings every 4th day
Bradley, Abel, or Zebby for 2-4 innings every 4th day
Festa for 2-4 innings every 4th day (assuming health of the shoulder)
Sands
Topa
Funderburk
Orze
winner of ST battle between Adams and Ohl

FA additions in the pen would be nice, but until they actually add legit backend guys I am going with this.

When injuries, or poor performance, hit the rotation one of the "bulk" relievers takes that rotation spot and you adjust the pen as needed based on who you call up. If it's Prielipp or Raya they may take the bulk role depending on how they've been pitching in AAA or it could change the pen to just 2 bulk guys and 6 typical 1 inning relievers. But I keep all the hopeful starters in a bulk role to have them sitting down and getting up in games and keep them on a strict between appearance routine because they're most likely going to need 9-12 starters throughout the year and I don't want to have the inexperienced arms bouncing between 1 inning and 5 inning roles.

[jmlease1]

I get that the medical reports on Festa have been encouraging, but we should be skeptical that he's going to be ready by spring training to begin with. Scratch one. So we're really talking about Abel, Bradley, and Matthews competing for the 5th spot, with Bradley having the inside track being a) the most experienced, b) the most effective so far, and c) out of options. Having Abel & Matthews as the the 6th-7th guys in AAA means depth and insurance against injury. And it always seems like someone is getting injured. But it also means that trades to upgrade the roster can be made late in spring training or long before the trade deadline from a position of strength rather than desperation.

BTW, Rojas is nowhere near ready to debut this season; he wasn't ready for AAA last year and got his brains kicked in. Not worrying about a guy whose ETA is more likely to be 2027 than 2026.

As much as I love Preilipp's talent, he should be heading to the bullpen. We need the talent upgrade there and even if he can stay healthy as a starter, it's hard to see him as being anything more than "5 and fly" guy because of his history. Regardless: he certainly can go in the bullpen this season and be someone who can throw 1-2 innings and still get another look at starting in 2027 depending on how his arm is holding up.

And until we know that the Cheap Pohlads aren't going to functionally force a Pablo trade, we ain't got extra starting pitching. We probably have just enough.

[IndianaTwin]

Over the past five years, an average of 12 pitchers have started games each season. A handful of those were used as Openers, but there wasn't a year in which less than eight starters were used with some regularity at some point in the season. The average number of guys to serve as true starters was around 10. 

With that in mind, I don't mind heading to spring training with full rotations for both the Twins and the Saints. However, given the reality of the rest of the roster, I'd consider turning one into a bat as seems to be the inclination of folks on the related string that's going right now. 

 

 

[HerbieFan]

Crazy theory.  There is a lot of talk of moving some SP candidates to the bullpen.  The risk, of course, is you basically give up on them as starters then.  The risk of not doing it is is you don't have your best available arms on the 26-man.

Last year at St.Paul there was a lot use of "piggybacks".  MLB teams are always looking for a new advantage.  I wonder if we may see more of these SP make the 26-man and more use of piggybacks at the MLB level.  It would mitigate, at least a little bit, the need to completely rebuild the bullpen as the assumption would be there would then be fewer innings for a pen,  SWR has shown he's basically a 4-5 inning guy.  None of Festa, Zebby, Bradley have proven to be more than that either.  What if the rotation looks like Lopez....Ryan.....Ober.....SWR/Zebby as the piggyback.....Bradley/Festa as the piggyback.  Something like that.  To help save the traditional bullpen arms you have, Lopez and Ryan could even be split up by a day or two.

[Historyking88]

Rotation should be Lopez, Ryan, Matthews, SWR, and Bradley. Ideally they trade Ober, move Festa to the bullpen, and let Prielipp and Abel start at Triple-A. 
 

If they were to trade Ryan. Then insert whichever top pitching prospect they trade for into the rotation and everyone else moves up a spot. 

[bean5302]

Need 8 guys who can be starters.

6-7 guys who can start 20+ games. (Ryan, Ober, Lopez, SWR, Bradley, Matthews)

1 guy who can cover 5-10 games in a pinch (Morris, MacLeod, Festa, Abel, Rojas, Prielipp)

Spring Training will probably tell us a lot. The Twins have just enough guys you'd feel okay about counting on for a starter's workload, but not much more than that.

[Woof Bronzer]

5 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

If they're not trading Lopez or Ryan then I go with the following plan come opening day:

Rotation:
Lopez
Ryan
Ober
SWR
winner of ST battle between Bradley, Abel, and Zebby

Pen:
Bradley, Abel, or Zebby for 2-4 innings every 4th day
Bradley, Abel, or Zebby for 2-4 innings every 4th day
Festa for 2-4 innings every 4th day (assuming health of the shoulder)
Sands
Topa
Funderburk
Orze
winner of ST battle between Adams and Ohl

FA additions in the pen would be nice, but until they actually add legit backend guys I am going with this.

When injuries, or poor performance, hit the rotation one of the "bulk" relievers takes that rotation spot and you adjust the pen as needed based on who you call up. If it's Prielipp or Raya they may take the bulk role depending on how they've been pitching in AAA or it could change the pen to just 2 bulk guys and 6 typical 1 inning relievers. But I keep all the hopeful starters in a bulk role to have them sitting down and getting up in games and keep them on a strict between appearance routine because they're most likely going to need 9-12 starters throughout the year and I don't want to have the inexperienced arms bouncing between 1 inning and 5 inning roles.

Great post.  This is exactly where I'm at.  If the Twins must try to "compete" in 26 (they musn't), then I think our best shot is to maximize the 40 man roster, especially when it comes to pitching.  Falvey simply can't be trusted to come out net positive via trades, and we know they won't be adding enough payroll for free agency to matter - which might actually help us avoid Falvey's love for bringing in washed up sluggers to take playing time from young guys who actually have a future.  Force him to play some young guys.  

So yes have starters 6-9 serve in a hybrid role, mix in some younger guys.  Don't overpay for the "closer" label.  Be a little creative or different.  Maybe sign one halfway decent reliever.  

Basically just cross your fingers and hope you find some magic somehow. 

[IndianaTwin]

8 hours ago, HerbieFan said:

Crazy theory.  There is a lot of talk of moving some SP candidates to the bullpen.  The risk, of course, is you basically give up on them as starters then.  The risk of not doing it is is you don't have your best available arms on the 26-man.

Last year at St.Paul there was a lot use of "piggybacks".  MLB teams are always looking for a new advantage.  I wonder if we may see more of these SP make the 26-man and more use of piggybacks at the MLB level.  It would mitigate, at least a little bit, the need to completely rebuild the bullpen as the assumption would be there would then be fewer innings for a pen,  SWR has shown he's basically a 4-5 inning guy.  None of Festa, Zebby, Bradley have proven to be more than that either.  What if the rotation looks like Lopez....Ryan.....Ober.....SWR/Zebby as the piggyback.....Bradley/Festa as the piggyback.  Something like that.  To help save the traditional bullpen arms you have, Lopez and Ryan could even be split up by a day or two.

Great in concept, but...

The issue is you've then only got six guys to cover the other starts, which are guaranteed to have a bunch of back-to-days. And, if you don't get a full nine innings out of the piggy back pairs, one or more of those six guys has to pick up a few innings on those days as well. 

When they've done this in the minors, they've used the piggyback guys on a four day rotation. Your plan has them pitching four innings and then going on five (or even six) days. 

[Bodie]

How many starting pitchers do the Twins (or any team!) need?

Who knows.   But, it will be more than they thought  before the season.   Always. 

[DocBauer]

No matter how much depth you have, there will always be bullpen games here and there, and some prospect brought up who's not quite ready, or some AAA singing who gets a shot, or some different version of an opener and pen game. It happens for EVERYONE at some point. It's just the marathon that is MLB. So "how many starters" the Twins should have is arbitrary to be sure.

BUT, the rotation begins with Lopez, Ryan, Ober, SWR, and a competition of Bradley, Matthews, Abel, and Morris. I had thought Bradley had no options remaining, but brief research has shown me he has 1 more option remaining. Personally, I think a lot of people are sleeping on Morris. He did have a mediocre 1st half of 2025 before he had an injury stint. But it was also discovered that he was unintentionally tipping his pitches early in the season due to a bizarre gum chewing habit. (If you can believe something so weird). And he was borderline excellent the rest of 2025.

That's 8 quality arms of experience or young talent not yet proven. That's not a bad way to start a season. Rojas and CJ Culpepper are behind those 8, but might be real options later in the season. That might be the envy of a lot of ML teams.

But notice I left out 2 very important arms. 

I hate, hate, hate the idea of Festa and Prielipp NOT being potential SP arms for the Twins. IF Festa gets that 4th offering under control and can be at least decent the 3rd time through the lineup, and IF Prielipp can do the same, and build up his IP, what great rotation arms they might be!

But then reality starts to settle in. SOMETIMES a really good pitcher, even WITH a 4th offering, is just destined for the bullpen. And in today's game, the pen has greater value than it ever had before.

I know Festa has flashed. I know he's been very good the 1st and even 2nd time through a lineup. And ANY young pitcher has to learn to adjust to a 3rd time through an order, but maybe he's just not built to do that. Maybe he's just ready to dominate as a late inning reliever the way Duran did, and the way Varland looked like he was becoming. And that's what I'm seeing happening. 

I grudgingly admit to the idea of bullets in the chamber for some young arms that have had injury issues. But Prielipp was fully healthy in 2025 for the first time in YEARS. And like Festa, he's not exactly old. But might he follow the Santana and Lirano path where he starts in a ML bullpen and then moves to the rotation? The fact that Falvey mentioned him as a pen option tells me they believe he can be a potential dominate arm there. He might begin 2026 as a 4 IP type of pitcher to keep him stretched out. Or they just might have him as a 1-2 IP option who is a potential late reliever.

If Prielipp turns out to be a dominate late inning reliever, do we care? Are we angry at all that he didn't turn out to be a quality SP despite his history?

Again, I hate the idea of Festa and Prielipp NOT being quality SP for the Twins. But it's also not hard to love them being part of the 2026 bullpen and beyond, at some point, along with Sands, Funderburk, Klein, Lewis, Raya, Bragg, Whitaker, MaCleod, Ohl, Adams etc, etc, as well as a couple veteran FA options for immediate help in 2026.

But back to the OP, it's really not hard to be excited about SP depth of Lopez, Ryan, Ober, SWR, Bradley, Matthews, Abel, Morris, and Rojas and CJ Culpepper bringing up the rear.

[old nurse]

8 hours ago, IndianaTwin said:

Great in concept, but...

The issue is you've then only got six guys to cover the other starts, which are guaranteed to have a bunch of back-to-days. And, if you don't get a full nine innings out of the piggy back pairs, one or more of those six guys has to pick up a few innings on those days as well. 

When they've done this in the minors, they've used the piggyback guys on a four day rotation. Your plan has them pitching four innings and then going on five (or even six) days. 

The experiment in St Paul probably gave them the ballpark number for pitch counts on 4 days rest.  The pitchers would stay reasonably stretched out to shift to starter when injuries happen. 

[jorgenswest]

Any starters that are relievers this year are not locked into a relief role. That transition back to starter can even happen during the year. There are several starters that appeared in the all star game last year that were relievers.

Abel has 43 AAA starts. Last year he was extremely effective in both Lehigh Valley and St. Paul. He needs to be in the major leagues facing major league hitters. Festa has 25 AAA starts pitching effectively. Matthews dominated in his AAA starts last year. They both need to be facing major league hitters. If Prielipp dominates in the spring he needs to be facing major league hitters. Those are four really good arms that give me hope for the bullpen this year. Maybe one of them takes a spot from Bradley or Woods Richardson. If that happens I have hope for them in the bullpen also.

[Otaknam]

I don’t see how they would get much by trading Ober after his injury prone 2025, unless it was part of a package with a real prospect like EROD. Abel, Rojas, and Bradley were traded for as starters. They need to be given the chance to prove that they are starters, whether it’s in the minors or the big leagues, to start 2026. So sort that out in spring training, see who is pitching well, and construct the pitching staff based on the result. If that means Matthews and Festa in the bullpen, so be it. I am hoping that Prielipp takes a major step forward as a starter in AAA, and proves himself a viable starter with high upside. 

[Riverbrian]

22 hours ago, IndianaTwin said:

Over the past five years, an average of 12 pitchers have started games each season. A handful of those were used as Openers, but there wasn't a year in which less than eight starters were used with some regularity at some point in the season. The average number of guys to serve as true starters was around 10. 

With that in mind, I don't mind heading to spring training with full rotations for both the Twins and the Saints. However, given the reality of the rest of the roster, I'd consider turning one into a bat as seems to be the inclination of folks on the related string that's going right now. 

 

 

With Decent Health... They will need at least 8 starters to get through the season. 

With health issues... They will need double figures. 

Some of the starters will need to be converted to the pen because the pen needs help from somewhere. 

Choose wisely.  

[Senior Softball Guy]

On 12/8/2025 at 8:40 AM, JD-TWINS said:

No trades unless it’s outside the Top 3 starters and coupled with someone for a REAL bat (Red Sox - Duran type) Lopez/Ryan SWR are Top 3 to me heading into the Winter. This said, Bradley is #5 just because we gotta give it a shot for at least 6 weeks to start season.

Abel was brought in as a future starter.

Festa & Matthews were both lower picks that have developed. I try Matthews in a back end/Closer role and if Festa’s health allows, he’s at AAA with Abel and potentially a Pen arm by June?

Prielipp gets converted to Pen ASAP.

Rojas develops at AAA.

I totally agree with SWR leapfrogging Ober in the rotation. I think Ober is getting into "prove-it" territory, especially with the young guns lining up behind him.

[Doctor Wu]

On 12/9/2025 at 11:27 AM, DocBauer said:

Personally, I think a lot of people are sleeping on Morris.

Good point, Morris still COULD be someone that can step up. But I also think many Twins fans are sleeping on Taj Bradley. I think he will be a mainstay in the rotation if given the chance.