Dodgers 4, Twins 3: Checking Out

[Riverbrian]

In regards to the decision to walk Ohtani. 

I get it and if I'm honest... I probably would have done the same thing with the combination of Ohtani at the plate and Ruiz on deck.

However, if you really want to get the math out... The Math probably won't check out in regards to this decision.  

With one out needed to conclude the game and a runner on first base.

Ohtani has a .377 OBP. That alone suggests a .62% chance of getting Ohtani out regardless of his talent.

Unless there is a stolen base from Betts. Ohtani would require an extra base hit to score Betts in that situation and tie the game. He has 56 extra base hits on the year in 465 plate appearances. According to those numbers there is a 12% chance of that happening. 

In regards to Ruiz... He's a small sample size this year with 17 Plate Appearences with an on base percentage of .294. It doesn't mean much with such a small sample but assuming he's a legit .294 OBP guy. He is a 71% chance of making an out and not extending the game. 62% chance compared to a 71% is pretty large difference in the game of baseball... however... in one individual AB it really isn't much at all. 

The next thing to look at is what changes with run expectancy. Two outs with a runner on 1st and 2nd after the Ohtani walk is a 34% run expectancy. Two out with a runner on 1st is a 21% run expectancy. 

I could really use some sabermetric guy to really check the math and break it down better but on the back of this napkin... it sure does appear that the benefit of facing Ruiz compared to Ohtani is negated by placing the tying run in scoring position and putting the winning run on the base paths. 

With all that said... It's Ohtani and Ruiz... I probably would have walked Ohtani as well just because the choice is Ohtani or Ruiz so I don't fault Rocco for possibly over reacting to someone who might be the best player in baseball right now.  

[LastOnePicked]

1 hour ago, jmlease1 said:

Feels like some people would prefer anything that got the current group fired, including losing.

Just so we're clear, I think everyone who loves the Twins prefers winning. I think many of us realize that winning it all just isn't possible with this current group.

[Guest]

If we are facing missed check-swing calls like last night's, an obvious lazy, home-friendly crap call, then it really doesn't matter whether the Twins buy or sell.  Just contract and make everyone happy.

[The Great Hambino]

Re: robot strike zones

I am in favor of it, but not because the umpires are bad.  As has been stated by multiple others, MLB umps are mostly really good at their jobs - I think that's one reason why the bad ones stick out.

I think it's just not reasonable to ask a human eyeball to accurately call pitches on the edge of the zone, especially at the bottom of the zone with all the late-movement nastiness these lab-created breaking pitches can have.  

I hear the arguments about removing the human element.  To me, the human element should be limited to players and coaches as much as possible.  If we have the technology to remove external human element in a manner that doesn't distractingly bog down the game, we should use it.

 

[jmlease1]

17 minutes ago, LastOnePicked said:

Just so we're clear, I think everyone who loves the Twins prefers winning. I think many of us realize that winning it all just isn't possible with this current group.

I'm not sure that's actually true; there are some people around here that hate the front office and/or manager so much they want this team to lose to get these people fired.

But the "winning it all" aspect is part of the issue too: there are definitely people who think that if you're not one of the absolute best teams in the league you should blow it all up and try to re-assemble a new roster from top prospects until you get there rather than compete in as many seasons as possible. I would argue that winning it all is possible with any team that can reach the playoffs in baseball more than any other team sport (hockey is arguably there too because you can ride a hot goalie to a title even if the rest of the squad is middle of the road. and to be clear, I'm not saying you WILL, I'm saying you CAN)

In baseball, I'd rather get more chances in the playoffs than try the tear down & rebuild cycle more often because if you miss on some of these prospects (or they simply get hurt), we're not a franchise that can buy our way out of it and never will be.

[terrydactyls]

1 hour ago, chinmusic said:

Sure, why not...and the Twins deliberately lost 2 of 3 in Colorado because they really, really want the White Sox record of futility last year to remain the gold standard.

I was Just being sarcastic.  Loosen up.

[chinmusic]

2 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

was Just being sarcastic.  Loosen up.

So was I, obviously.

[USAFChief]

21 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

In baseball, I'd rather get more chances in the playoffs than try the tear down & rebuild cycle more often because if you miss on some of these prospects (or they simply get hurt), we're not a franchise that can buy our way out of it and never will be.

More chances in the playoffs?

They've been in the playoffs once since 2020.

In the weak ALC, They've finished 5th, 3rd, 1st, 4th, and are currently 4th. One time above 3rd place.  One. Overall theyre below .500.since 2020.

I'll ask again...more chances in the playoffs?

2019 is a long time ago, and a strong argument can be made this management team had little to do wirh that roster. 

Nobody "wants the Twins to lose." 

Quite the opposite. Some of us would like to see them start winning. 

[jmlease1]

6 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

More chances in the playoffs?

They've been in the playoffs once since 2020.

In the weak ALC, They've finished 5th, 3rd, 1st, 4th, and are currently 4th. One time above 3rd place.  One. Overall theyre below .500.since 2020.

I'll ask again...more chances in the playoffs?

2019 is a long time ago, and a strong argument can be made this management team had little to do wirh that roster. 

Nobody "wants the Twins to lose." 

Quite the opposite. Some of us would like to see them start winning. 

2022 the Twins were in first place in the division at the deadline. Should they have blown it up then? They were tied for the division lead in Sept before injuries wiped them out down the stretch. Should they have blown up the team in the offseason and started over then?

2023 they won the division, won a playoff series for the first time in a billion years. Should they have blown up the team at the deadline there? Should they have blown up the team after ownership cut the payroll in the offseason and quit on the season?

2024 they were a wild card team all the way into September before falling completely apart and missing the playoffs (but still finishing with a winning record). Should they have blown up the team at the deadline that year? Guess they should have blown up the team in the offseason?

This is the first season since 2021 where they haven't been in it at the deadline, so they've had chances at the playoffs. I'd prefer they go for those opportunities rather than throw my hands up at the deadline and go "well, they're not the Dodgers or the Yankees, let's blow it up". 

(I'm also bored with the "the AL Central is weak" arguments; it might be weaker than the AL East, but it hasn't been weaker than the AL West, even with CWS no longer trying.)

They should sell now because there's little to suggest they're capable of making a big run to get back in this: too many underperformers plus some injuries on a roster that should have been good enough to contend but was never great without some players really stepping up. But the ownership quagmire keeps them stuck in the mud.

[LambchoP]

Maybe some of our free agents to be looked good enough this series to up there value a bit before the deadline. I really think between Bader, Castro and Coloumbe we should be able to acquire some decent upper minors talent. 

[USAFChief]

19 minutes ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

I agree.  Correct me if I'm wrong, but the replays used in the pre-season and ASG on strikes and balls does NOT extend to check swing calls right?

Correct.

Theres an experiment underway this year in the FSL (and previously in the AFL) that may change that.

https://www.espn.com/espn/story/_/id/45230307/mlb-use-hawk-eye-checked-swing-challenges-minors

For the record, there actually is no such thing as a "check swing" defined in the MLB rule book. 

A swing is defined as a pitch "struck at by the batter.."

That's it.

[Mike Sixel]

53 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

2022 the Twins were in first place in the division at the deadline. Should they have blown it up then? They were tied for the division lead in Sept before injuries wiped them out down the stretch. Should they have blown up the team in the offseason and started over then?

2023 they won the division, won a playoff series for the first time in a billion years. Should they have blown up the team at the deadline there? Should they have blown up the team after ownership cut the payroll in the offseason and quit on the season?

2024 they were a wild card team all the way into September before falling completely apart and missing the playoffs (but still finishing with a winning record). Should they have blown up the team at the deadline that year? Guess they should have blown up the team in the offseason?

This is the first season since 2021 where they haven't been in it at the deadline, so they've had chances at the playoffs. I'd prefer they go for those opportunities rather than throw my hands up at the deadline and go "well, they're not the Dodgers or the Yankees, let's blow it up". 

(I'm also bored with the "the AL Central is weak" arguments; it might be weaker than the AL East, but it hasn't been weaker than the AL West, even with CWS no longer trying.)

They should sell now because there's little to suggest they're capable of making a big run to get back in this: too many underperformers plus some injuries on a roster that should have been good enough to contend but was never great without some players really stepping up. But the ownership quagmire keeps them stuck in the mud.

Great post

[USAFChief]

4 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

2022 the Twins were in first place in the division at the deadline. Should they have blown it up then? They were tied for the division lead in Sept before injuries wiped them out down the stretch. Should they have blown up the team in the offseason and started over then?

2023 they won the division, won a playoff series for the first time in a billion years. Should they have blown up the team at the deadline there? Should they have blown up the team after ownership cut the payroll in the offseason and quit on the season?

2024 they were a wild card team all the way into September before falling completely apart and missing the playoffs (but still finishing with a winning record). Should they have blown up the team at the deadline that year? Guess they should have blown up the team in the offseason?

This is the first season since 2021 where they haven't been in it at the deadline, so they've had chances at the playoffs. I'd prefer they go for those opportunities rather than throw my hands up at the deadline and go "well, they're not the Dodgers or the Yankees, let's blow it up". 

(I'm also bored with the "the AL Central is weak" arguments; it might be weaker than the AL East, but it hasn't been weaker than the AL West, even with CWS no longer trying.)

They should sell now because there's little to suggest they're capable of making a big run to get back in this: too many underperformers plus some injuries on a roster that should have been good enough to contend but was never great without some players really stepping up. But the ownership quagmire keeps them stuck in the mud.

We seem to have moved the goalposts from "more chances in the playoffs" to "more chances at the playoffs."

That seems to me akin to saying the Twins are playing winning baseball.*

*from Sunday through Tuesday this past road trip.

In any case, back to the point. I won't speak for others, so I'll just say this: I don't want the Twins to lose. Quite the opposite. I want the Twins tonwin, but that seems to me a long way in the past under current management, and a long way off. 

 

[Vanimal46]

1 hour ago, jmlease1 said:

2023 they won the division, won a playoff series for the first time in a billion years. Should they have blown up the team at the deadline there? Should they have blown up the team after ownership cut the payroll in the offseason and quit on the season?

Yes

1 hour ago, jmlease1 said:

2024 they were a wild card team all the way into September before falling completely apart and missing the playoffs (but still finishing with a winning record). Should they have blown up the team at the deadline that year? Guess they should have blown up the team in the offseason?

Absolutely yes. Last year proved the core of this team is not good enough and Rocco should have been fired after an epic collapse in September. 

[Killer Rod Tony]

15 hours ago, h2oface said:

The clip of Baldelli's presser I caught may have been abbreviated, but no one asked him about pulling Paddack with a low 78 pitches (when a recently returned from the IL - April 28 to July 9 with right shoulder inflammation - Glasnow, with just 2 previous starts in July goes 106) and pitching the best he has all year.  He could have easily started the 7th, instead of the tired pen. Baldelli didn't offer anything, either. Any link to a more complete presser would be appreciated. 

I already said my piece in the game thread. Rage is dissipating, but I can still feel Jax choking.

How to get on here so you can talk? I understand the third time through the lineup thing but when Paddock is pitching the best game of the year he had two of them you don't take him out after 78 pictures and just six innings he's way ahead at that point. Then looks what happens after you take him out. The better clearly swung at the pitch and the Umpire called it a no swing. At that point the game would have been over. No fault against Bader he made his dive and his glove could only reach the top of the ball. One of the two guys that closes it's going to have to pitch 3 days in a row because Paddock was taken out of the game and their guy just off of injury throws 106 pictures. Let's play ball that's not playing ball pulling the guy in that situation. I have followed the twins since 1965 I've never seen this this way before. Let the guy throw if he gives up a hit in the 7th inning then take him out give him a chance to give up a hit first that's no different than the manager putting the player on base with somebody already on base.

[Killer Rod Tony]

15 hours ago, DocBauer said:

I watched the end of the game and turned away. 

I was so disgusted when I saw an UGLY obvious strike 3 call from the umps on Betts I left. The video shows him a good foot or foot and a half beyond the plate. I mean, it's so obvious anyone with decent eyesight and integrity would have called it a strike. 

Just ridiculous!

Trevor Plouff did also say that is a strike. We can complain all we want about this and that about that game but we won that game. The umpires lost that game. Soon as he made that swing Way Beyond home plate the game was over but the Dodgers do not acknowledge that. They don't say anything about it after the game. Be humble people you make gazillions of money humble myself.

[Killer Rod Tony]

14 minutes ago, Killer Rod Tony said:

How to get on here so you can talk? I understand the third time through the lineup thing but when Paddock is pitching the best game of the year he had two of them you don't take him out after 78 pictures and just six innings he's way ahead at that point. Then looks what happens after you take him out. The better clearly swung at the pitch and the Umpire called it a no swing. At that point the game would have been over. No fault against Bader he made his dive and his glove could only reach the top of the ball. One of the two guys that closes it's going to have to pitch 3 days in a row because Paddock was taken out of the game and their guy just off of injury throws 106 pictures. Let's play ball that's not playing ball pulling the guy in that situation. I have followed the twins since 1965 I've never seen this this way before. Let the guy throw if he gives up a hit in the 7th inning then take him out give him a chance to give up a hit first that's no different than the manager putting the player on base with somebody already on base.

There he was after 78 pitches and six innings coming to take him out. You don't get Paddock pitching like that very often but it's a sight to see when you do oh well he's doing really good right now I guess I'll go see them on the bench! I don't mean to be like that but what kind of Reason could you have had Mr manager? Roberts didn't mind leaving his just back from injury picture in the game. When you're pitching that well you don't worry about the third time through.

[David Maro]

Short and sweet can't walk Ruiz,make him swing the bat!!

[madtowntwin]

15 hours ago, Dman said:

Does this mean I have to take back all my mean comments about Paddack?  He pitched great today against a really good lineup.  I thought he was going to get shelled, but other than the Ohtani mistake ball he was fantastic.  Where has this guy been the last 3 or 4 times out?  The Twins certainly had them on the ropes.  If Jax simply executes and throw's strikes to the guy that can't hit they probably win this one.

A tough loss, but It was a fun series as we were in it every game.  Washington at home with our Ace on tap so they should win that series.

Having said that - Your reaction to the move to replace Paddack with Coulombe? Both he and Jax seemed passive today...Don't know if it was related to the pitches called or fatigue. Maybe one more inning of Paddack, or at least a batter or two, wouldn't have been such a bad thing. 

Additionally - The missed third strike call on Betts was atrocious. It was obvious in my living room and the replay exemplified umpire negligence. Don't really understand how neither a player nor member to the  coaching staff was not thrown out on that one. More passivity I guess...

[shimrod]

2 hours ago, USAFChief said:

Nobody "wants the Twins to lose." 

I disagree. If you think the current FO/Manager/Roster will not improve and Ownership/FO will not change things up unless forced it's sensible to wish for enough losses to prompt corrective action.

Short term pain for long term gain. 

If anyone wants the Twins to lose always and forever I don't know why they would be here.

[TwinsDr2021]

2 hours ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

I'd like to comment on the many of you  who are criticizing Rocco about putting Duran out there a second inning in the previous game.

Let's play devils advocate... say he goes with Sands to save Duran for this latest game.  Let's say Sands blows the game and we are down in the series 2-0 AND then we get blown out in this game.  Why save Duran assuming that we would need him in this game when that may not occur.

I guess what I am saying is that when a game is there for the taking (especially in their current situation) you absolutely have to take it.

Sands pitched two innings the night before, so that was very unlikely to happen. I posted the other day there really was only two options, Duran or Topa. Personally I don't think Duran pitching two innings was the issue, it was all the moves prior to that led him to have to pitch him two innings. 

[h2oface]

Stewart needs to be added the bullpen usage chart. He did pitch in this game.

[David HK]

Pathetic.  Just pathetic.  This is the mark of a bad team, when nothing matches up day to day.

Finally get things we've been missing- a good start from Paddack.  A Lewis HR.  Guys who've been letting us down picking us up. Dodger pitchers walking the ballpark, daring us to score.  And then...  it's Jax's turn to sh*t the bed, and waste those efforts.

Just pathetic.

*Edit:*  Oops, I almost forgot- Rocky's ongoing bullpen mismangement contributed heavily to this shite-show as well.  

[knothole61]

12 hours ago, David Maro said:

Short and sweet can't walk Ruiz,make him swing the bat!!

It's that old saying: "It's hard to throw good pitches with your two hands around your throat." Jax has some great pitches in his arsenal and when he's on the sweeper and changeup are magnificent, but he often (not always) chokes under serious pressure. He should have eaten Ruiz for lunch...instead he played it "safe" by mincing around the edges and it cost us dearly. All that Jax really lacks is confidence in the clutch...but that's no small thing.  

[TwinsDr2021]

20 hours ago, Killer Rod Tony said:

Trevor Plouff did also say that is a strike. We can complain all we want about this and that about that game but we won that game. The umpires lost that game. Soon as he made that swing Way Beyond home plate the game was over but the Dodgers do not acknowledge that. They don't say anything about it after the game. Be humble people you make gazillions of money humble myself.

Things like bad calls happen, I am sure you and Twins aren't giving the win back from earlier this year when the ump missed an obvious strike 3 on the Twins hitter and led to a big inning to win the game. After the call on Betts, the Twins had two chances (maybe more if Bader plays the freeman hit better)to still win the game, but Jax walked the guy and Bader dropped/misplayed the single to left, 

So yes let blame the ump, the Dodgers lack of humility and let Jax, Bader, Rocco and the rest of the guys that played off the hook. 

[David HK]

They lost that one in the most Twins way possible.

For most of those guys, never again in their baseball lives will they ever have a moment like that back- the chance to take a series from the Dodgers in THEIR HOUSE.  And they choked it off.

[S Bart]

On 7/23/2025 at 9:19 PM, Western SD Fan said:

As @USAFChief has kept hammering away today, this loss started last night when Rocco left Duran in a 5-run lead to pitch a second inning and thus made him one of the last pitchers available today.  Had Duran only been used for one inning last night, he would have thrown 12 pitches and easily available for today.  With that being said, I still may have asked him if he could get one out and brought him in for Ohtani or Ruiz if you're still hell bent on IBB Ohtani.

Other concerns I had during the game included:

1.  Taking out Paddack after 78 pitches.  I understand that there were two lefties in the next three and it screams Coulombe, but Paddack had just collected 2K's and a lineout in 12 pitches and went through the toughest part of the lineup in the 6th (Betts, Ohtani, and T. Hernandez).  Let Paddack go until he was in trouble, and you could have had both Coulombe and Varland warming up for matchup concerns.

2.  PR Keirsey Jr right away.  While this was rendered moot eventually when the bases were loaded, this isn't my biggest complaint although it did take out our best hitter this afternoon. (Dodgers eventually did the same thing by taking out T. Hernandez for Ruiz)

3.  Willi.....oh WIlli.  When the Dodgers can't find a pitcher who can throw a pitch over the plate, you hit the first pitch that he throws and weakly ground into a double play thus killing the rally.

4. Since Duran was not available (see above), I would have flip-flopped Jax and Stewart.  In my perfect world, Duran would have been available since he wasn't uselessly wasted for 2 innings last night.  Jax would have faced Ohtani, T. Hernandez, and Freeman in the 8th in a more familiar position in the lineup and the game.  Stewart in the 9th would have faced a weaker part of the lineup and I would have seen if Duran could go at all today with the day off tomorrow and have him ready to get 1 or 2 outs if Stewart was in trouble.  

Notice in all of this there is no blame on the umps.  We will have to see how the Ump Scorecard grades this, but my eyeballs suggest it was fairly evenly called on both sides.  The only frustrating part was that his strike zone seemed to wander as the game progressed, but it was still called evenly.  Had we executed point #1 and #3, we're not talking about a bad check swing call.  As according to the rule book, there is no such thing as a bad check swing call, but that is another argument for another day.  Fix the rule and you'll hear me complaining about it like I like to complain about everything else as a fan. 🙂

Good synopsis. I will add one additional topic. Correa is batting 300 this month. With Thursday being a day off, why not let him hit for Kiersay or replace Lee. This game was important and it is just another notch on the belt against Baldelli. I know people get tired of Baldelli bashing, but there is much evidence to demonstrate a change is needed. I question if he would still be around if employed with most clubs. Until this sale takes place. I am uncertain if much will be done.