The Numbers Said Pull Festa: The Twins Did the Opposite

[Matthew Taylor]

Last night in Los Angeles, the Minnesota Twins found themselves in a pivotal moment that revealed not just a decision but a departure from the philosophy they've followed all season. Trailing 3-1 in the bottom of the sixth inning, manager Rocco Baldelli made a surprising call. He sent rookie starter David Festa back out to the mound to face the most dangerous part of the Dodgers lineup for a third time. Shohei Ohtani, Will Smith, and Freddie Freeman were due up. All three are elite hitters. Two are left-handed. All are capable of punishing even the slightest mistake.

Against that trio, in that situation, on the road, in a critical game, the odds were not just stacked against Festa — they were practically daring the Twins to blink.

What followed played out almost exactly as expected. Festa somehow managed to strike out Ohtani to open the inning, a result that felt more like a gift than a plan. But any luck quickly vanished. Will Smith, who had already homered off Festa earlier in the game, crushed another one over the wall to give the Dodgers a 4-1 lead. Next came Freddie Freeman, who drilled a double to keep the inning going. Only then did Baldelli make the move to the bullpen. By then, the damage was done.

What made the decision so baffling was how starkly it contrasted with how the Twins have handled their young starting pitchers all year. From the very beginning of the season, the Twins have made a point to shield their starters, especially the young ones, from facing opposing lineups for the third time. We’ve seen it with Simeon Woods Richardson almost weekly. Festa, too, has been managed carefully. Before last night, he had faced just 18 batters all season for a third time in a game. And yet, in one of the most hostile environments in baseball, against perhaps the best offensive lineup in the league, with two of the three hitters being left-handed, and two of them already having homered off of him, Festa was left in.

The decision is even more puzzling when viewed in the broader context of where the Twins are in the season. This current stretch leading up to the trade deadline could determine the entire course of the franchise’s summer. A strong showing might convince the front office to invest in the roster, or at least hold firm. A slump might signal that it’s time to sell. Every game carries added weight right now. Every decision matters just a little bit more. This was a time to be bold and proactive. Instead, the Twins stayed passive. They gambled on a young starter surviving a near-impossible situation, and they paid the price.

It wasn’t even a matter of necessity. The bullpen was in a good spot heading into this game. Thanks to a comfortable win Sunday in Colorado, only Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax pitched the day before, and both of them were coming off four full days of rest. The relievers were ready. There was no shortage of arms, no strain on the staff. There was a clear opportunity to go to the pen early and give the team a real chance to claw back into the game.

Here's a look at how the bullpen usage was lined up heading into Monday night's game:

WED	THU	FRI	SAT	SUN	TOT
Topa	0	0	17	16	0	33
Sands	0	0	22	0	0	22
Misiewicz	0	0	0	21	0	21
Durán	0	0	0	0	16	16
Coulombe	0	0	0	12	0	12
Stewart	0	0	0	9	0	9
Jax	0	0	0	0	8	8
Varland	0	0	0	0	0	0

 

Yes, the offense struggled again. The Twins only scored two runs on the night. Even if the bullpen had shut the Dodgers down the rest of the way, there’s a good chance the bats wouldn’t have come through. That has been a consistent theme for much of the season. But poor offensive output doesn’t excuse poor pitching decisions. What the Twins had control over was who pitched that sixth inning. And they chose to keep Festa in. It was out of character for this staff. It didn’t align with the data or the matchups. It didn’t make sense in the moment, and it doesn’t make sense in hindsight.

Whether this was a one-time misjudgment or a signal of a shift in thinking remains to be seen. What’s clear is that in a critical game, against a juggernaut opponent, with the season tilting toward a defining moment, the Twins veered off course. And it cost them.

What do you think? Was Baldelli justified in sticking with Festa, or was this a misstep in a must-win game? Let us know in the comments.

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[tony&rodney]

Does the inning change if Smith is called out on the check swing. Seemed clear that Smith went, even though we all know there is no clear standard on checked swings. Sticking with the consistent calls from earlier in the game, Smith is out.

I'm not second guessing Baldelli on this one. Festa looked strong and he knew that Woods Richardson is usually limited to five innings.

The mistake in Monday night's game was holding Lewis at third base on a ground ball single to right field. Running the bases has been an issue and I'm not clear on the third base coach.

[jmlease1]

12 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

The mistake in Monday night's game was holding Lewis at third base on a ground ball single to right field. Running the bases has been an issue and I'm not clear on the third base coach.

I'm not really a fan of Tommy Watkins out there, but I have to wonder if it's just that I see him all the time. Are other team's 3B coaches the same? Am I just always remembering the bad? And how much is on the player's decision-making?

[HerbieFan]

Sometimes I feel like Rocco knows he should deviate from his computer printout at least some of the time....use his "gut".  I just don't think his "gut" is very good.  Decisions like this seem random with no real rhyme or reason.  I was more frustrated that you manage to lose 2 of 3 to the freaking Rockies and Jax pitches one inning.....with a 5-run lead, Duran pitches one inning....with a 6-run lead, and Varland doesn't pitch at all?!

 

[DocBauer]

The Twins have 3 guys in the rotation currently that are "rookies" or 2nd year arms. A couple of them are going to have to throw back to back. While I don't necessarily agree with Rocco's approach in Monday's game, I do think he was trying to squeeze out that extra inning in game 1...already behind...with 2 more games to go.

I think, generally, you play game by game, and try to win TODAY, and worry about tomorrow when it gets here. But I think it's obvious what Rocco was trying to do. I just don't know if it was the right choice or not.

[TwinsDr2021]

IMO it seems obvious that the Twins would likely need for at least 9 - 12 innings this series with Festa, SWR and Paddack pitching. That means every relief pitcher was probably going to be needed for multiple innings over the three days with Thursday off that should have been OK. I will never question leaving a pitcher in the extra inning when they have been pitching well with a low pitch count. 

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

Does the inning change if Smith is called out on the check swing. Seemed clear that Smith went, even though we all know there is no clear standard on checked swings. Sticking with the consistent calls from earlier in the game, Smith is out.

I'm not second guessing Baldelli on this one. Festa looked strong and he knew that Woods Richardson is usually limited to five innings.

The mistake in Monday night's game was holding Lewis at third base on a ground ball single to right field. Running the bases has been an issue and I'm not clear on the third base coach.

Horrible base running.  Again.

[ziggy]

Myself and many others here on TD have been clamoring for Rocco to let the pitchers see the lineup for a third time.  I'm not going to criticize Rocco for doing it while behind in the game. The bullpen can only pitch so many innings effectively.

Festa's stuff plays in the majors, he just needs to spot his pitches better.

Tuesdays game was a win but some base running left room for improvement.

[thelanges5]

Dan Hayes:
David Festa is going on the IL with right shoulder inflammation. Travis Adams has been recalled. #MNTwins

[Road trip]

1 hour ago, jmlease1 said:

I'm not really a fan of Tommy Watkins out there, but I have to wonder if it's just that I see him all the time. Are other team's 3B coaches the same? Am I just always remembering the bad? And how much is on the player's decision-making?

On a well coached team, the player has very little part in the decision to head home or stop at 3rd.  The runner can't see the fielder (because turning your head dramatically slows you down), and has to trust the 3rd base coach.  The only exception to this should be if the runner stumbles rounding 3rd and then stops on his own.

Watkins is probably pretty average.  All 3B coaches make some mistakes and we all remember the bad decisions, forgetting the good ones.  He seems a bit more conservative than some 3B coaches, but the Twins have quite a few players who are slow, along with guys like Correa and Lewis who are frequently dealing with leg injuries.

[IndianaTwin]

33 minutes ago, thelanges5 said:

Dan Hayes:
David Festa is going on the IL with right shoulder inflammation. Travis Adams has been recalled. #MNTwins

With the bullpen usage of the last two nights, one wonders whether Adams has been called up in part to cover a potential short outing from Paddack.

I also see that Ober is not listed as the starter for either today or tomorrow in St. Paul, leading me to think that his rehab assignment may be just the one start he made on Friday. 

[USAFChief]

2 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

The mistake in Monday night's game was holding Lewis at third base on a ground ball single to right field. Running the bases has been an issue and I'm not clear on the third base coach.

I think it was Larnach. Made worse in that there were 2 out. 

For the record, I'm not a fan of Watkins but in this particular case replay showed some poor  baserunning. Weak secondary lead and jogging to third. 

[LA Vikes Fan]

1 hour ago, IndianaTwin said:

With the bullpen usage of the last two nights, one wonders whether Adams has been called up in part to cover a potential short outing from Paddack.

I also see that Ober is not listed as the starter for either today or tomorrow in St. Paul, leading me to think that his rehab assignment may be just the one start he made on Friday. 

Is Misiewicz going on the IL? Seems like he should if he left after one walked batter last night. I half expected them to call up Ober to pitch today but now with Festa going on the Il it seems like the call is Ober for Misiewicz (IL) tomorrow with Adams staying as the long man. I would expect Ober to start Saturday or Sunday against the Nats. 

It stinks that Festa had to go on the IL, but we should be able to cover without a bullpen game with the 3 off days coming up if we jigger things a little so Ryan pitches Friday - on 4 days rest from last Sunday's start. Nats would be Ryan, Matthews, Ober. Red Sox would be SWR, Paddack, Ryan. Guardians would be Matthews, Ober, SWR. Tigers would be Paddack (if he's still here),  Ryan, Matthews. Everyone is still on 4 days rest until after Festa is eligible to come back. And who knows, maybe we're close to Lopez getting a rehab start or 3.  

[Doctor Gast]

I'm in the camp of not overextending our young arms or SPs who have a history of arm problems. But Baldelli sometimes succumbs to public opinion & has them go longer than they should. IMO, our SPs, especially our young ones, have a lot of adrenaline pumping through their bodies facing this LAD lineup & a quicker hook should be in order not to put their arms under the added stress. If it were me, I'd pull both Festa & SWR sooner. Now Festa is down, putting added stress on the rotation. I have advocated getting a veteran innings-eater SP to take up the slack when Lopz went down, coming 2 months ago. Our rotation lacks flexibility. Paddack is overdue to be placed in long relief, but because we are short in the rotation, he is still there. Until we incorporate long relief, we are in danger of burning out our BP & SPs & have worn down in case we do make it to the postseason.

[twinfan]

The trouble with baseball and the way starting pitchers are treated these days makes me believe that we may never see a 300 game winner again. How is a pitcher supposed to get better if he doesn't learn how to pitch to a lineup at any time- even the 3rd time through and also learn to get out of tough situations. Yes, some of our pitchers are young but you also have to take it game by game. Had Festa been throwing poorly, I'd have yanked him. Had he been at 85-90 pitches, maybe same thing. But he wasn't and needs the experience to learn. It just didn't exactly work out the way we (and Rocco) would have liked.

[mickster]

2 hours ago, thelanges5 said:

Dan Hayes:
David Festa is going on the IL with right shoulder inflammation. Travis Adams has been recalled. #MNTwins

Might have been a partial reason for the hook.   

[IndianaTwin]

2 hours ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

Is Misiewicz going on the IL? Seems like he should if he left after one walked batter last night. I half expected them to call up Ober to pitch today but now with Festa going on the Il it seems like the call is Ober for Misiewicz (IL) tomorrow with Adams staying as the long man. I would expect Ober to start Saturday or Sunday against the Nats. 

It stinks that Festa had to go on the IL, but we should be able to cover without a bullpen game with the 3 off days coming up if we jigger things a little so Ryan pitches Friday - on 4 days rest from last Sunday's start. Nats would be Ryan, Matthews, Ober. Red Sox would be SWR, Paddack, Ryan. Guardians would be Matthews, Ober, SWR. Tigers would be Paddack (if he's still here),  Ryan, Matthews. Everyone is still on 4 days rest until after Festa is eligible to come back. And who knows, maybe we're close to Lopez getting a rehab start or 3.  

Ober pitched on Friday, so if they deem him ready, I’d think they give him Friday and then have Ryan on Saturday and Matthews on Sunday. Why hold Ober off until Sunday and have Ryan and Matthews on four days rest with Ober on eight when you can have Ober on six and Ryan and Matthews on five. 

[Mike Sixel]

At some point, you need to let them pitch. This season is over, let them pitch and learn. 

[LA Vikes Fan]

10 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said:

Ober pitched on Friday, so if they deem him ready, I’d think they give him Friday and then have Ryan on Saturday and Matthews on Sunday. Why hold Ober off until Sunday and have Ryan and Matthews on four days rest with Ober on eight when you can have Ober on six and Ryan and Matthews on five. 

Agreed. That would work just as well. Does that work all the way through when we get to no off days? in other words, my goal is to have Ryan pitch as many as possible all on 4 days rest and not have a bullpen game. 

[IndianaTwin]

8 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

Agreed. That would work just as well. Does that work all the way through when we get to no off days? in other words, my goal is to have Ryan pitch as many as possible all on 4 days rest and not have a bullpen game. 

Ober-Ryan-Matthews-SWR-Paddack. They’ve rarely (if ever) skipped guys to keep someone on four days rest, though if you were going to do it, Ryan is the one to do so with. 

[LA Vikes Fan]

Makes sense. Now is the time to switch up the rotation to get your horse more work. He can rest in September if we're out of totally by then. 

[jkcarew]

Me thinks you’re inventing drama that doesn’t actually exist except for in the mind of a hopeful and unobjective fan.

Let him figure things out and gain experience. The last thing this org needs is yet another year of pretending that they’re competing for something. They’re not.

[Bodie]

17 hours ago, twinfan said:

The trouble with baseball and the way starting pitchers are treated these days makes me believe that we may never see a 300 game winner again. How is a pitcher supposed to get better if he doesn't learn how to pitch to a lineup at any time- even the 3rd time through and also learn to get out of tough situations. Yes, some of our pitchers are young but you also have to take it game by game. Had Festa been throwing poorly, I'd have yanked him. Had he been at 85-90 pitches, maybe same thing. But he wasn't and needs the experience to learn. It just didn't exactly work out the way we (and Rocco) would have liked.

You can't build an ace pitcher if you never allow them to try doing ace-type things...

Not every pitcher will be an ace pitcher, but you'll never have one if you don't at least try it with your better arms!

[tomcat]

Rocco Baldelli and his staff of assistants should be fired. Their consistent miscalculations end up as loss column additions weekly. For that matter, send the FO regime down the road too.