Heyman: Twins Open for Business on Rentals, Listening on Ryan and Duran

[Matthew Taylor]

According to Jon Heyman of The New York Post and MLB Network, the Twins are now “seriously listening” on several of their rental players, including Harrison Bader, Willi Castro, and Danny Coulombe. Given the team’s inconsistent play and recent slide heading into the deadline, this shift is hardly surprising.

Heyman also notes that Minnesota is willing to listen on bigger names like Joe Ryan and Jhoan Duran, though it would take a significant offer to pry either away — especially Ryan, who’s under team control through 2027.

This doesn’t appear to be a full-scale fire sale, but it’s a clear sign the Twins are preparing to pivot if their deadline outlook continues to dim. With no extension talks brewing for their rentals and a tough stretch of games underway, the front office looks ready to retool if the right offers come along.

What do you think the Twins should do? Leave a comment and start the conversation!

View full rumor

[Cory Engelhardt]

I'd be REALLY curious if they could get something for Caleb Thielbar. That would be some true voodoo magic :)

But if they can make smart moves to prepare for 2026, I think that's better than doing nothing at all.

[tony&rodney]

What should the Twins do?

Something.

[Vanimal46]

Selling the expiring contract players is a no brainer. I don’t see a Joe Ryan trade on the horizon unless he’s pushing for it behind closed doors. I’d also prefer trading Jax over Duran. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

7 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

What should the Twins do?

Something.

The Twins have a single strength right now: the bullpen. It's my opinion the Twins should enter August 1st with two good relievers on the roster: Griffin Jax and Louis Varland.

Brock Stewart has three years of control but is a ticking time bomb. If you can get good value for him, move him. I've never had much faith in Duran because, if he started losing velocity, that's a real problem long-term. If a team is still salivating over him, move him. If the front office doesn't trade expiring contracts like Coulombe, they should be fired on the spot.

If a team is absolutely desperate for Joe Ryan, consider trading him. Otherwise, I'm just fine keeping Joe.

[Vanimal46]

8 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I've never had much faith in Duran because, if he started losing velocity, that's a real problem long-term. If a team is still salivating over him, move him.

This is where I differ from you. We’re seeing more pitchers maintain their elite velocity throughout their career, a la Aroldis Chapman, Zach Wheeler, Justin Verlander, etc. We worry about a future arm injury but he’s gone unscathed so far in his MLB career. 

Duran’s velocity is his natural ability. Whereas Jax had to work extremely hard to go from a 91 MPH sinker ball prospect to what he is today. That’s why I prefer keeping Duran and trading Jax. 

[tony&rodney]

27 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

This is where I differ from you. We’re seeing more pitchers maintain their elite velocity throughout their career, a la Aroldis Chapman, Zach Wheeler, Justin Verlander, etc. We worry about a future arm injury but he’s gone unscathed so far in his MLB career. 

Duran’s velocity is his natural ability. Whereas Jax had to work extremely hard to go from a 91 MPH sinker ball prospect to what he is today. That’s why I prefer keeping Duran and trading Jax. 

Easy to see how people agree with Brock, but I'm agreeing with you - I'm either keeping Duran or requiring an unexpected haul. 

There is likely to be a split down the middle on Jax or Duran. I saw something about Philly acquiring both of Jax and Duran. Not seeing that. Philly needs a closer more than any other team. They need to overpay. Will they? Who knows. If both of Jax and Duran suddenly receive huge offers, I'm listening for sure. The Twins love both of those guys but sub .500 teams should not be holding on to relief pitchers if their demands are met.

I agree with Brock that Coulombe should be traded. He must have a decent market and the return should be solid. I'm not sure whether teams feel confident in Stewart. I wouldn't give him away. He should return more than Coulombe but less than Jax or duran. The demand from other teams is unknown interms of their willingness to part with significant prospects from AAA/AA. Everyone may say Painter is untouchable but Philly needs to find a closer or their postseason run could be short. 

[TheLeviathan]

1 hour ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I'd be REALLY curious if they could get something for Caleb Thielbar. That would be some true voodoo magic :)

But if they can make smart moves to prepare for 2026, I think that's better than doing nothing at all.

He's from here, that's 90% of team control I'm pretty sure.....

[TheLeviathan]

1 hour ago, Vanimal46 said:

This is where I differ from you. We’re seeing more pitchers maintain their elite velocity throughout their career, a la Aroldis Chapman, Zach Wheeler, Justin Verlander, etc. We worry about a future arm injury but he’s gone unscathed so far in his MLB career. 

Duran’s velocity is his natural ability. Whereas Jax had to work extremely hard to go from a 91 MPH sinker ball prospect to what he is today. That’s why I prefer keeping Duran and trading Jax. 

That's a good argument, I think I still lean Duran just because we've seen how delicate his success can be with the struggles last year.  I think Jax relying on a much more balanced/nasty repertoire gives him longer staying power.  However, I think reasonable folks can fall on either side of that line with good arguments.

So in saying that....I wouldn't fight either way on the "right" one to deal.  I would fight, however, with anyone that thinks holding on to both of them is the right move.  Sometime between now and February one of them should move.  IMO, with relievers, the time to do that is the deadline.

On Ryan?  I'd offer him 5 years and 130M and plan to deal Pablo this offseason.  But if you are getting vibes as a FO that 5/130 ain't going to cut it.....then I'm absolutely willing to move now.

[thelanges5]

I don’t like the Joe Ryan talk. Would be nice to see the FO do something. They’ve been basically standing pat for 2 years and it’s not working. Shake the team up without totally giving up on 2026.

[arby58]

1 hour ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

The Twins have a single strength right now: the bullpen. It's my opinion the Twins should enter August 1st with two good relievers on the roster: Griffin Jax and Louis Varland.

... I've never had much faith in Duran because, if he started losing velocity, that's a real problem long-term. If a team is still salivating over him, move him. 

I don't entirely understand the love for Jax and relative disdain for Duran. Sure, his velocity is down a bit, 'only' hitting 100 mph every now and then, but a lot of baseball people don't think that's his best pitch (and maybe only third best) anyway.

If you line up the stats, this year and career-wise, Duran wins hands-down - and he is three years younger. ERA year/career: Duran 1.62, 2.40; Jax 3.83, 3.97. WHIP year/career: Duran 1.128, 1.093; Jax 1.181, 1.129. WAR year/career: Duran 2.3, 7.3 (in four years); Jax 0.5, 3.9 (in five years).
 
What am I missing?

[Chris Hove]

I say keep Ryan, Jax, and Duran. We have seen the game go fewer innings with starting pitching and more usage of bullpen arms. Keeping Jax and Duran to go with Varland as well would still be a dangerous bullpen for next year, and you wouldn't have to rely as much on good starting pitching. They all appear to be due for arbitration, which doesn't bode well for Twins fans. The bullpen is their strength right now; I might want to keep it intact for the next few years.

I think they should consider trading Coulumbe, Sands, and/or Stewart to see what's available. Probably not a great return, but it's worth seeing. Sands and Stewart can be easily replaced, and Coulumbe has been great, but he's more of a situational pitcher. 

I wouldn't think Bader or Castro would get an A or B-level prospect back in return, but it's worth seeing what you can get for them as well.

[Brock Beauchamp]

30 minutes ago, arby58 said:

I don't entirely understand the love for Jax and relative disdain for Duran. Sure, his velocity is down a bit, 'only' hitting 100 mph every now and then, but a lot of baseball people don't think that's his best pitch (and maybe only third best) anyway.

If you line up the stats, this year and career-wise, Duran wins hands-down - and he is three years younger. ERA year/career: Duran 1.62, 2.40; Jax 3.83, 3.97. WHIP year/career: Duran 1.128, 1.093; Jax 1.181, 1.129. WAR year/career: Duran 2.3, 7.3 (in four years); Jax 0.5, 3.9 (in five years).
 
What am I missing?

I don't have disdain for Duran, I quite like him. But I think the Twins should start dealing bullpen arms, and Duran is the highest-impact return.

[arby58]

4 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I don't have disdain for Duran, I quite like him. But I think the Twins should start dealing bullpen arms, and Duran is the highest-impact return.

I was referring to your earlier quote, " I've never had much faith in Duran because, if he started losing velocity, that's a real problem long-term."

[Brock Beauchamp]

2 minutes ago, arby58 said:

I was referring to your earlier quote, " I've never had much faith in Duran because, if he started losing velocity, that's a real problem long-term."

I don't have faith in any reliever, when you get right down to it. Especially those that have already lost velocity.

But every team needs some relievers, can't trade them all. So for bang-for-the-buck, I'd trade Duran.

[Danchat]

I think the play is to move the rentals and then one reliever. I could see Varland stepping into the 8th inning role with Jax or Duran handling the 9th, and they've been able to do a solid job developing relievers. I doubt Ryan is moved as they'll only part with him for a king's ransom. This isn't like the Berrios situation where it was likely that an extension was off the table and they were down to 1.5 years of control instead of 2.5.

[arby58]

32 minutes ago, Danchat said:

I think the play is to move the rentals and then one reliever. I could see Varland stepping into the 8th inning role with Jax or Duran handling the 9th, and they've been able to do a solid job developing relievers. I doubt Ryan is moved as they'll only part with him for a king's ransom. This isn't like the Berrios situation where it was likely that an extension was off the table and they were down to 1.5 years of control instead of 2.5.

I tend to agree with you. OTOH, Ryan may never have greater trade value. The Baseball Trade Simulator currently lists his surplus value as 73.1 - far and away the most of any Twins asset. Jenkins is next at 61.9, followed by Buxton (who isn't going anywhere) at 43.6. Interestingly, they put Jax' surplus value (27.2) ahead of Duran (20.5). 

[arby58]

52 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I don't have faith in any reliever, when you get right down to it. Especially those that have already lost velocity.

But every team needs some relievers, can't trade them all. So for bang-for-the-buck, I'd trade Duran.

Not so sure about that. The Baseball Trade Simulator projects Jax' surplus value as 27.2 and Duran as 20.5. As I noted earlier, I'd rather they keep Duran anyway, but if the simulator is correct (and I'm not vouching for it, just providing it as another source of information), then trade Jax.

[Brock Beauchamp]

2 minutes ago, arby58 said:

Not so sure about that. The Baseball Trade Simulator projects Jax' surplus value as 27.2 and Duran as 20.5. As I noted earlier, I'd rather they keep Duran anyway, but if the simulator is correct (and I'm not vouching for it, just providing it as another source of information), then trade Jax.

I mean, as much as I'd prefer to keep Jax, if a team is willing to offer a lot more for him, trade him and keep Duran.*

*with that said, BBTV's valuations are ********

[Whitey333]

Having a couple of strong back end bullpen arms is great.  However this team has done very little in terms of playoffs and division titles since they have been here. They have missed the playoffs 3 of past 4 years and making it look like they miss again this year making it 4 of 5 years.  Top end relievers are a luxury for non playoff teams.  I hope the don't trade Ryan but if they get a good haul you have to listen.  I don't think any long term contracts will be signed until ownership is settled.

[TheLeviathan]

2 hours ago, arby58 said:

I don't entirely understand the love for Jax and relative disdain for Duran. Sure, his velocity is down a bit, 'only' hitting 100 mph every now and then, but a lot of baseball people don't think that's his best pitch (and maybe only third best) anyway.

If you line up the stats, this year and career-wise, Duran wins hands-down - and he is three years younger. ERA year/career: Duran 1.62, 2.40; Jax 3.83, 3.97. WHIP year/career: Duran 1.128, 1.093; Jax 1.181, 1.129. WAR year/career: Duran 2.3, 7.3 (in four years); Jax 0.5, 3.9 (in five years).
 
What am I missing?

This is a great argument, I'm on the "trade Duran" side and I admit at least some of that is my own personal vibes on whether he can sustain it.  Couple that with getting the bigger return for him is why I lean that way.  But you're not wrong here in your analysis either.

[arby58]

46 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I mean, as much as I'd prefer to keep Jax, if a team is willing to offer a lot more for him, trade him and keep Duran.*

*with that said, BBTV's valuations are ********

I think they have the Twins' three primary assets about right - Ryan, Jenkins, Buxton. The rest of the order is subject to some quibbling, but also doesn't seem to be such bovine excrement.

After Buxton, they go, in order, Emma, Keaschall, Jax, Wallner, Matthews, Festa, Lee, Duran, Lewis, SWR, Prielipp, K. Culpepper, Ober, Varland. On the opposite end, there are four with negative trade values: Correa (-33.6), Vazquez (-2.8), Dobnak (-2.1), Topa (-0.9). Can't argue with any of those four.

[Brock Beauchamp]

3 minutes ago, arby58 said:

I think they have the Twins' three primary assets about right - Ryan, Jenkins, Buxton. The rest of the order is subject to some quibbling, but also doesn't seem to be such bovine excrement.

After Buxton, they go, in order, Emma, Keaschall, Jax, Wallner, Matthews, Festa, Lee, Duran, Lewis, SWR, Prielipp, K. Culpepper, Ober, Varland. On the opposite end, there are four with negative trade values: Correa (-33.6), Vazquez (-2.8), Dobnak (-2.1), Topa (-0.9). Can't argue with any of those four.

BTV has its place, but it's kind of like WAR, except moreso: once you get into decimal places, you're missing the point of the activity. As a very rudimentary tool, it's really useful. Taken as gospel, it's being misused.

[P Meyer]

1 hour ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I don't have disdain for Duran, I quite like him. But I think the Twins should start dealing bullpen arms, and Duran is the highest-impact return.

This is where I fall.

If you are dealing one of Jax and Duran, deal the one you can get the most for.

Probably should not trade both.

Ryan only goes if you get equitable value which no team may be willing to offer because it would be so high.

I see no reason to hold onto rentals.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Just now, P Meyer said:

This is where I fall.

If you are dealing one of Jax and Duran, deal the one you can get the most for.

Probably should not trade both.

Ryan only goes if you get equitable value which no team may be willing to offer because it would be so high.

I see no reason to hold onto rentals.

Most Twins rentals have real value to a contender. Coulombe will have multiple suitors, as will Castro. Bader, being a great defensive player, is someone almost any team can use.

If the front office doesn't trade the good rentals, they need to go. Full stop. No, you're not going to light the world on fire with any of those player returns, but given how multiple teams will want all of them, the return ain't nothing.

[Vanimal46]

10 minutes ago, arby58 said:

On the opposite end, there are four with negative trade values: Correa (-33.6)

 

Not gonna get out of that deal without paying off most of his remaining contract. Ouch. 

[USAFChief]

I dont understand trading only 1 of Jax/Duran.

If you're trying to compete in 2026, deal neither. 

If not, deal both. 

Dealing only 1 is just more half-assing it. Serves neither goal. 

Id say both, as i dont see this team competitive in 2026.

But either way, pick a lane.

[P Meyer]

8 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

 

Not gonna get out of that deal without paying off most of his remaining contract. Ouch. 

Lots of barriers in trading Correa from my limited knowledge. The benefit would be huge and an almost perfect storm of circumstances would be needed.

[P Meyer]

Just now, USAFChief said:

I dont understand trading only 1 of Jax/Duran.

If you're trying to compete in 2026, deal neither. 

If not, deal both. 

 

Just in speaking for my own opinion. I don't need to bottom out and I don't want to tank. I want to balance both a decent MLB culture while also selling high from positions of strength to add more pieces overall. If I trade Duren this year and keep Jax, I can move Jax into a closing role, and then shift other bullpen pieces up incrementally. I don't want to take a guy from middle relief and tell him he is the closer now. If next year the Twins are similarly struggling, the you can trade Jax and shift players again. 

 

It's a similar reason the Twins don't HAVE to trade Ryan. If they get a requisite return for him, you make the trade. If you can't because that return is too high for teams right now, keep him. 

 

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

26 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

I dont understand trading only 1 of Jax/Duran.

If you're trying to compete in 2026, deal neither. 

If not, deal both. 

Dealing only 1 is just more half-assing it. Serves neither goal. 

Id say both, as i dont see this team competitive in 2026.

But either way, pick a lane.

I want to deal one because the Twins have shown themselves capable of developing pitchers, particularly relievers. They can absorb the loss of one, and still compete. They cannot absorb the loss of two.