Heyman: Twins Open for Business on Rentals, Listening on Ryan and Duran

7 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

What should the Twins do?

Something.

The Twins have a single strength right now: the bullpen. It's my opinion the Twins should enter August 1st with two good relievers on the roster: Griffin Jax and Louis Varland.

Brock Stewart has three years of control but is a ticking time bomb. If you can get good value for him, move him. I've never had much faith in Duran because, if he started losing velocity, that's a real problem long-term. If a team is still salivating over him, move him. If the front office doesn't trade expiring contracts like Coulombe, they should be fired on the spot.

If a team is absolutely desperate for Joe Ryan, consider trading him. Otherwise, I'm just fine keeping Joe.

30 minutes ago, arby58 said:

I don't entirely understand the love for Jax and relative disdain for Duran. Sure, his velocity is down a bit, 'only' hitting 100 mph every now and then, but a lot of baseball people don't think that's his best pitch (and maybe only third best) anyway.

If you line up the stats, this year and career-wise, Duran wins hands-down - and he is three years younger. ERA year/career: Duran 1.62, 2.40; Jax 3.83, 3.97. WHIP year/career: Duran 1.128, 1.093; Jax 1.181, 1.129. WAR year/career: Duran 2.3, 7.3 (in four years); Jax 0.5, 3.9 (in five years).
 
What am I missing?

I don't have disdain for Duran, I quite like him. But I think the Twins should start dealing bullpen arms, and Duran is the highest-impact return.

2 minutes ago, arby58 said:

I was referring to your earlier quote, " I've never had much faith in Duran because, if he started losing velocity, that's a real problem long-term."

I don't have faith in any reliever, when you get right down to it. Especially those that have already lost velocity.

But every team needs some relievers, can't trade them all. So for bang-for-the-buck, I'd trade Duran.

2 minutes ago, arby58 said:

Not so sure about that. The Baseball Trade Simulator projects Jax' surplus value as 27.2 and Duran as 20.5. As I noted earlier, I'd rather they keep Duran anyway, but if the simulator is correct (and I'm not vouching for it, just providing it as another source of information), then trade Jax.

I mean, as much as I'd prefer to keep Jax, if a team is willing to offer a lot more for him, trade him and keep Duran.*

*with that said, BBTV's valuations are ********

3 minutes ago, arby58 said:

I think they have the Twins' three primary assets about right - Ryan, Jenkins, Buxton. The rest of the order is subject to some quibbling, but also doesn't seem to be such bovine excrement.

After Buxton, they go, in order, Emma, Keaschall, Jax, Wallner, Matthews, Festa, Lee, Duran, Lewis, SWR, Prielipp, K. Culpepper, Ober, Varland. On the opposite end, there are four with negative trade values: Correa (-33.6), Vazquez (-2.8), Dobnak (-2.1), Topa (-0.9). Can't argue with any of those four.

BTV has its place, but it's kind of like WAR, except moreso: once you get into decimal places, you're missing the point of the activity. As a very rudimentary tool, it's really useful. Taken as gospel, it's being misused.

Just now, P Meyer said:

This is where I fall.

If you are dealing one of Jax and Duran, deal the one you can get the most for.

Probably should not trade both.

Ryan only goes if you get equitable value which no team may be willing to offer because it would be so high.

I see no reason to hold onto rentals.

Most Twins rentals have real value to a contender. Coulombe will have multiple suitors, as will Castro. Bader, being a great defensive player, is someone almost any team can use.

If the front office doesn't trade the good rentals, they need to go. Full stop. No, you're not going to light the world on fire with any of those player returns, but given how multiple teams will want all of them, the return ain't nothing.

26 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

I dont understand trading only 1 of Jax/Duran.

If you're trying to compete in 2026, deal neither. 

If not, deal both. 

Dealing only 1 is just more half-assing it. Serves neither goal. 

Id say both, as i dont see this team competitive in 2026.

But either way, pick a lane.

I want to deal one because the Twins have shown themselves capable of developing pitchers, particularly relievers. They can absorb the loss of one, and still compete. They cannot absorb the loss of two.